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Weekly MMWR: Week 30 (2009) - Week 39 (2010)
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Weekly MMWR: Week 30 (2009) - Week 39 (2010)
Last edited by Missouriwatcher; July 22, 2010, 05:47 PM.Wotan (pronounced Voton with the ton rhyming with on) - The German Odin, ruler of the Aesir.
I am not a doctor, virologist, biologist, etc. I am a layman with a background in the physical sciences.
Attempting to blog an nascent pandemic: Diary of a Flu YearTags: None
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Re: Week 30 MMWR
OK, this is a little scary.
The Pneumonia & Influenza numbers are unusually high (Table III). This survey has 651 P&I deaths from a total of 11,012. CDC estimates 2.5 million deaths by all causes per year so that?s 48,000 per week on average. So proportionately, that?s around 2,800 P&I deaths nationally.
There are an estimated 82,000 P&I deaths in an average year http://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/disease...ted_deaths.htm , that?s 1,600 per week on average, and one would expect it to be even lower in the summertime. So in MMWR of week 30, there appears to be at least 1,200 excess P&I fatalities.
Please someone check to see if I?m making any silly mistakes or assumptions.
RoRoTwitter: @RonanKelly13
The views expressed are mine alone and do not represent the views of my employer or any other person or organization.
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Re: Week 30 MMWR
Originally posted by RoRo View PostOK, this is a little scary.
The Pneumonia & Influenza numbers are unusually high (Table III). This survey has 651 P&I deaths from a total of 11,012. CDC estimates 2.5 million deaths by all causes per year so that?s 48,000 per week on average. So proportionately, that?s around 2,800 P&I deaths nationally.
There are an estimated 82,000 P&I deaths in an average year http://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/disease...ted_deaths.htm , that?s 1,600 per week on average, and one would expect it to be even lower in the summertime. So in MMWR of week 30, there appears to be at least 1,200 excess P&I fatalities.
Please someone check to see if I?m making any silly mistakes or assumptions.
RoRoWotan (pronounced Voton with the ton rhyming with on) - The German Odin, ruler of the Aesir.
I am not a doctor, virologist, biologist, etc. I am a layman with a background in the physical sciences.
Attempting to blog an nascent pandemic: Diary of a Flu Year
Comment
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Re: Week 30 MMWR
Phew, I was a little worried there!
Aug 2007 633P&I from 10,771 total is 5.8%
Aug 2008 677P&I from 10,989 total is 6.2%
Aug 2009 651P&I from 11,012 total is 5.9%
Good Catch!Twitter: @RonanKelly13
The views expressed are mine alone and do not represent the views of my employer or any other person or organization.
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Re: Week 30 MMWR
deaths for agegroup 1-24 is up
mmwr2 , deaths in USA week 15,2009 - 26,2009
issue,all_ages,>=65,45-64,25-44,1-24,<1,P+I
122_5815,12034,7897,2800,794,270,267,820
122_5816,11470,7647,2664,685,236,232,821
122_5817,11453,7593,2649,677,275,250,799
122_5818,11303,7444,2620,710,263,255,810
122_5819,11277,7432,2685,682,253,219,751
122_5820,11268,7319,2713,687,272,268,751
122_5821,9797,6507,2268,606,217,195,619
122_5822,10821,7053,2601,699,244,223,697
122_5823,11126,7274,2636,719,245,246,773
122_5824,10987,7119,2582,737,288,255,732
122_5825,10163,6645,2393,665,237,220,663
122_5826,8692,5587,2146,532,240,183,571
122_5827,10961,7169,2560,733,264,226,710
122_5828,10824,7015,2651,671,265,218,726
122_5829,10493,6758,2554,696,260,222,657
122_5830,11012,6985,2735,725,298,266,651
NYC_5815,1032,710,237,51,13,19,33
NYC_5816,959,683,197,53,17,9,34
NYC_5817,1124,792,243,59,19,11,32
NYC_5818,1018,698,234,62,11,11,44
NYC_5819,822,577,189,39,6,11,23
NYC_5820,1128,790,258,49,14,16,51
NYC_5821,914,627,204,57,16,10,30
NYC_5822,970,652,242,51,16,9,42
NYC_5823,818,576,170,53,14,5,29
NYC_5824,1142,771,264,78,15,13,46
NYC_5825,805,565,168,48,12,12,31
NYC_5826,753,501,191,43,7,11,34
NYC_5827,1068,731,236,66,18,16,36
NYC_5828,1073,741,248,52,17,15,42
NYC_5829,1005,692,231,55,15,12,45
NYC_5830,1025,679,249,55,24,18,37I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT
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Re: Week 30 MMWR
When you express the numbers as percentages, there doesn't seem to be any disproportionate younger deaths. On the other hand, 45-64 looks higher than normal, and has been above 24% for the past 5 weeks.
MMWR Week 30 /Total Fatalities /> 65 /45-64 /25-44 /1-24 /<1 /P&I
2009 /11,012 /63.40 /24.84 /6.58 /2.71 /2.42 /5.91
2008 /10,989 /64.93 /23.33 /6.68 /2.65 /2.39 /6.16
2007 /10,771 /64.40 /23.00 /6.98 /2.88 /2.39 /5.88
2006 /11,150 /63.90 /23.46 /7.35 /2.97 /2.22 /5.16
Comparison of % of fatalities in each age group, and Pneumonia and Influenza
Does not always equal 100% as some ages are unknown.
Nicer format in the attachment.Attached FilesTwitter: @RonanKelly13
The views expressed are mine alone and do not represent the views of my employer or any other person or organization.
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Re: Week 30 MMWR
Code:average number of deaths per week in New York City in the years 1996-2007: 1 1190 2 1369 3 1239 4 1170 5 1330 6 1370 7 1291 8 1227 9 1269 10 1241 11 1304 12 1239 13 1182 14 1114 15 1145 16 1146 17 1111 18 1124 19 1113 20 1102 21 1019 22 1070 23 1126 24 1078 25 1062 26 990 27 1012 28 1160 29 1119 30 1055 31 1077 32 1066 33 1072 34 1053 35 1049 36 975 37 978 38 978 39 966 40 975 41 1113 42 1138 43 1138 44 1125 45 1064 46 1228 47 1162 48 1186 49 1252 50 1207 51 1198 52 1086 3885 seasonal excess deaths in NYC per year (from the CDC-36000-figure you would expect 1000 flu-deaths in NYC per season) http://wonder.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwrmort.asp 118 US-cities + 9 regions 1996-2007 week deaths all ages >=65 45-64 25-44 1-24 <1 P+I weekly deaths in NYC: 1996-2007 2009 weeks: 43-16 17-42 15-29 15-29 ---------------------------------- all ages: 1211 1061 1092 975 >=65 : 840 724 748 673 45-64 : 246 221 226 220 25-44 : 89 82 82 54 1-24 : 19 19 19 14 <1 : 16 15 15 12 P+I : 54 40 43 36
I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT
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Re: Week 30 MMWR
get the data directly here: http://wonder.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwr_reps.asp
New York:
Boston:
USA:
Mid-Atlantic, Region 2:
I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT
Comment
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Re: Week 30 MMWR
USA 2009 Deaths from All Causes by Age Groups
week,All Ages,>=65,45-64,25-44,1-24,Less than 1,Pneumonia and Influenza
01 14333 9684 3235 863 297 251 987
02 12154 8153 2790 699 260 247 915
03 11769 7959 2676 648 228 256 853
04 12706 8465 2965 744 261 265 894
05 12280 8266 2769 736 245 258 881
06 12386 8312 2838 722 236 275 840
07 11269 7575 2620 647 218 207 836
08 12077 7917 2826 799 277 255 864
09 11876 7939 2699 719 274 243 858
10 11986 8087 2670 717 254 256 841
11 11706 7880 2708 647 239 224 838
12 12216 8178 2821 729 250 235 888
13 11400 7638 2562 725 233 238 847
14 11021 7448 2452 649 242 226 856
15 12034 7897 2800 794 270 267 820
16 11470 7647 2664 685 236 232 821
17 11453 7593 2649 677 275 250 799
18 11303 7444 2620 710 263 255 810
19 11277 7432 2685 682 253 219 751
20 11268 7319 2713 687 272 268 751
21 09797 6507 2268 606 217 195 619
22 10821 7053 2601 699 244 223 697
23 11126 7274 2636 719 245 246 773
24 10987 7119 2582 737 288 255 732
25 10163 6645 2393 665 237 220 663
26 08692 5587 2146 532 240 183 571
27 10961 7169 2560 733 264 226 710
28 10824 7015 2651 671 265 218 726
29 10493 6758 2554 696 260 222 657
30 11012 6985 2735 725 298 266 651
31 09982 6441 2383 679 250 224 610
32 10282 6670 2474 691 240 203 607
33 09666 6336 2280 633 225 190 588
34 10489 6780 2532 684 245 238 607
35 09880 6484 2289 651 234 217 519
total deaths this year in 122 US-cities from all causes in 5-week-intervals:
63242,59594,58377,56771,52894,51982,50299
total deaths this year in New York City from all causes in 5-week-intervals:
6013,5450,5107,5051,4649,4924,4812
237984,155175(.869)
21621,14385(.887)
259 excess deaths in week 21-35 in NYC this year as compared with the
national averageI'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT
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Re: Week 30 MMWR
New York:http://wonder.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwr_reps...&mmwr_table=4A
Boston:http://wonder.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwr_reps...&mmwr_table=4A
Atlanta: http://wonder.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwr_reps...&mmwr_table=4A
USA:http://wonder.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwr_reps...&mmwr_table=4A
New England: http://wonder.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwr_reps...&mmwr_table=4A
Mid-Atlantic:http://wonder.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwr_reps...&mmwr_table=4A
S.Atlantic: http://wonder.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwr_reps...&mmwr_table=4A
W.N.Central: http://wonder.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwr_reps...&mmwr_table=4A
W.S.Central: http://wonder.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwr_reps...&mmwr_table=4A
E.N.Central: http://wonder.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwr_reps...&mmwr_table=4A
E.S.Central: http://wonder.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwr_reps...&mmwr_table=4A
Mountain: http://wonder.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwr_reps...&mmwr_table=4A
Pacific: http://wonder.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwr_reps...&mmwr_table=4AI'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT
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Re: Week 30 MMWR
Code:week 36 week 37 region all >64 >44 >24 >1 <1 P+I all >64 >44 >24 >1 <1 P+I -------------------------------------------------------------------------- New England : 458 304 94 33 15 12 44 , 507 352 109 27 13 6 36 Mid Atlantic: 1678 1156 363 94 38 27 73 , 2119 1456 481 106 38 37 92 S.Atlantic : 1077 656 295 72 25 29 38 , 1289 783 341 95 38 32 72 W.N.Central : 541 330 132 48 9 21 39 , 623 387 159 45 14 17 35 W.S.Central : 968 579 260 74 30 25 53 , 1434 865 383 109 50 27 66 E.N.Central : 1387 901 347 81 33 25 76 , 1727 1126 405 97 36 63 99 E.S.Central : 756 486 183 44 28 15 54 , 802 507 202 65 21 7 69 Mountain : 991 642 255 59 15 19 47 , 1122 706 284 84 22 26 58 Pacific : 1243 820 292 80 33 18 117 , 1627 1093 385 90 38 21 156 total : 9880 6484 2289 651 234 217 519 9099 5874 2221 585 226 191 541 11250 7275 2749 718 270 236 683 ------------------------------------ +23.6 23.9 23.8 22.7 19.5 23.6 26.2 10.7 -18.2 26.3 26.0 19.7 89.5 15.2 -10.3 48.1 24.5 24.5 30.3 6.1 27.8 13.2 23.4 30.9 33.3 ----------- 23.6 26.2
was there a holiday in week 36, which they only reported on in week 37 ?I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT
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Re: Week 30 MMWR
deaths down in week 39
see links above
I can hardly see any effect of ****** on deathratesI'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT
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Re: Week 30 MMWR
Week 39 MMWR comparison;
Age---<1 --- 1-24---25-44---45-64----65+----Total-----P&I
2009:213----226----588-----2250----6309-----9589----620
%:--2.22%--2.36%-6.13%---23.5%---65.8%------------6.47%
2008:246----294----737-----2469----6928-----10679---617
%:--2.30%--2.75%-6.90%---23.1%---64.9%------------5.78%
2007:229----220----692-----2391----6652-----10189---606
%:--2.25%--2.16%-6.79%---23.5%---65.3%------------5.95%
P&I fatalities for week 39 are elevated as a percentage of total deaths, but overall a thousand less deaths than the same week last year. The number of P&I deaths is virtually unchanged.Twitter: @RonanKelly13
The views expressed are mine alone and do not represent the views of my employer or any other person or organization.
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