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Weekly MMWR (2011-2012) - Weeks 40-39 (No New Pediatric Deaths; Total 34)

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  • #31
    Re: Weekly MMWR (2011-2012) - Weeks 40-9 (One Pediatric Death)

    Week 9:
    1 influenza-associated pediatric death (CA); total 5
    P&I: 7.5%
    http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwr...cid=mm6109md_e

    Comment


    • #32
      Re: Weekly MMWR (2011-2012) - Weeks 40-10

      Week 10:
      No influenza-associated pediatric deaths reported; total 5
      P&I: 7.3%
      http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwr...cid=mm6110md_w

      Comment


      • #33
        Re: Weekly MMWR (2011-2012) - Weeks 40-10

        this is probably going to be a record year with the lowest
        winter mortality (from all causes) in USA since long.

        in my adjusted MMWR list it's the lowest since 1996/7,
        when MMWR started to publish the actual weekly death-figures
        from 122 major cities.

        2009/2010 was already a record-low-mortality year, since so many
        got ****** but so few died from it.
        Only ~13000 flu deaths in that season in USA, estimated CDC.
        This season could see even fewer flu-deaths and probably less
        winter-deaths from all causes, although we had H3N2, which usually
        causes more deaths than H1N1.

        The reason could be improved (winter,flu) heart-disease treatment,
        while cancer is not so much seasonal.
        These 2 are by far the most frequent death-causes.
        Attached Files
        I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
        my current links: [url]http://bit.ly/hFI7H[/url] ILI-charts: [url]http://bit.ly/CcRgT[/url]

        Comment


        • #34
          Re: Weekly MMWR (2011-2012) - Weeks 40-11 (Three Pediatric Deaths; Total Eight)

          Week 11:
          3 influenza-associated pediatric deaths: WI (1), OK (1), CA (1); total 8

          P&I: 7.5%
          http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwr...cid=mm6111md_w

          Comment


          • #35
            Re: Weekly MMWR (2011-2012) - Weeks 40-12 (Four Pediatric Deaths; Total 12)

            Week 12:
            4 influenza-associated pediatric deaths: FL (2), TX (2); total 12

            P&I deaths: 7.8%
            http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwr...cid=mm6112md_w

            Comment


            • #36
              Re: Weekly MMWR (2011-2012) - Weeks 40-13 (One Pediatric Death; Total 13)

              Week 13:
              1 influenza-associated pediatric death: MO; total 13

              P&I deaths: 7.2%
              http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwr...cid=mm6113md_w

              Comment


              • #37
                Re: Weekly MMWR (2011-2012) - Weeks 40-13 (One Pediatric Death; Total 13)

                strangely few deaths in NYC


                http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=436213


                http://wonder.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwr_reps...&mmwr_table=4A

                unavailable now in week 14. Did we ever see that in NYC



                Code:
                mid Atlantic region:
                01 1854 1301 406 094 34 19 083  
                02 1961 1370 456 083 29 23 112  
                03 1938 1378 418 088 31 23 106  
                04 1942 1346 443 082 31 40 099  
                05 2869 1947 637 180 58 46 153  
                06 1854 1319 396 089 29 21 095  
                07 1943 1351 437 095 38 22 105  
                08 1768 1246 395 084 27 16 094  
                09 2087 1442 474 092 32 47 109  
                10 2255 1571 487 124 40 33 117  
                11 2095 1478 452 104 32 28 089  
                12 1998 1378 425 104 48 42 100  
                13 1625 1127 343 093 30 32 056  
                14 0888 0633 183 048 13 11 058  
                .

                Code:
                New York City:
                01 1074 777 222 49 15 11  34  
                02 1091 772 251 44 11 13  50  
                03 0997 717 217 40 15 08  51  
                04 1104 774 257 45 15 13  53  
                05 1115 796 233 53 18 14  53  
                06 1017 739 211 47 13 07  48  
                07 1089 755 249 54 18 13  63  
                08 0878 622 201 40 11 04  38  
                09 1041 748 228 42 09 14  50  
                10 0998 711 222 46 09 10  43  
                11 1015 738 203 44 15 14  35  
                12 1157 806 256 53 28 13  60  
                13 0831 575 181 48 09 18  27  
                14 ---- --- --- -- -- --  --
                I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                my current links: [url]http://bit.ly/hFI7H[/url] ILI-charts: [url]http://bit.ly/CcRgT[/url]

                Comment


                • #38
                  Re: Weekly MMWR (2011-2012) - Weeks 40-14 (No Pediatric Deaths; Total 13)

                  Week 14:
                  No influenza-associated pediatric deaths; total 13
                  P&I deaths: 7.5%
                  Pertussis cases beyond historical limits
                  http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwr...cid=mm6114md_w

                  Comment


                  • #39
                    Re: Weekly MMWR (2011-2012) - Weeks 40-15 (Two Pediatric Deaths; Total 15)

                    Week 15:
                    2 influenza-associated pediatric deaths: NV (1), CA (1); total 15
                    P&I deaths: 7%
                    Pertussis cases beyond historical limits
                    http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwr...cid=mm6115md_w

                    Comment


                    • #40
                      Re: Weekly MMWR (2011-2012) - Weeks 40-16 (Three Pediatric Deaths; Total 18)

                      Week 16:
                      3 influenza-associated pediatric deaths: NY (1), AR (1), VA (1); total 18
                      P&I deaths: 6.9%
                      Pertussis cases beyond historical limits
                      http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwr...cid=mm6116md_w

                      Comment


                      • #41
                        Re: Weekly MMWR (2011-2012) - Weeks 40-16 (Three Pediatric Deaths; Total 18)

                        2012 links



                        http://wonder.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwrmort.asp

                        New York:http://wonder.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwr_reps...&mmwr_table=4A
                        Boston:http://wonder.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwr_reps...&mmwr_table=4A
                        Atlanta: http://wonder.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwr_reps...&mmwr_table=4A
                        El Paso: http://wonder.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwr_reps...&mmwr_table=4A



                        USA:http://wonder.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwr_reps...&mmwr_table=4A
                        New England: http://wonder.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwr_reps...&mmwr_table=4A
                        Mid-Atlantic:http://wonder.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwr_reps...&mmwr_table=4A
                        S.Atlantic: http://wonder.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwr_reps...&mmwr_table=4A
                        W.N.Central: http://wonder.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwr_reps...&mmwr_table=4A
                        W.S.Central: http://wonder.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwr_reps...&mmwr_table=4A
                        E.N.Central: http://wonder.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwr_reps...&mmwr_table=4A
                        E.S.Central: http://wonder.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwr_reps...&mmwr_table=4A
                        Mountain: http://wonder.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwr_reps...&mmwr_table=4A
                        Pacific: http://wonder.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwr_reps...&mmwr_table=4A







                        -------------------------------

                        adjusted (non-reports are estimated) MMWR-deaths
                        summer=weeks 17-42
                        winter= weeks 43-52(44-53) and weeks 1-16 the next year

                        year,season,all,>64,45-64,25-44,1-24,<1,P+I,(P+I)-ratio



                        Code:
                         1996 summer: 307475  203718  59419  28283  8543  7064  17550  571 
                         1996 winter: 332842  230047  61265  26179  7985  6884  24006  721 
                        
                         1997 summer: 301458  202877  58272  24757  8425  6700  17550  582 
                         1997 winter: 333799  232648  62022  23985  7743  6856  24565  736 
                        
                         1998 summer: 304827  206072  59378  23972  8034  6909  17997  590 
                         1998 winter: 335000  234653  62437  23420  7466  6633  24650  736 
                        
                         1999 summer: 299149  202258  59424  22890  7676  6644  17665  591 
                         1999 winter: 338855  235737  65075  23494  7528  6827  28338  836 
                        
                         2000 summer: 307059  207499  60879  23305  8248  6729  20272  660 
                         2000 winter: 333287  230587  64882  23244  7687  6586  24776  743 
                        
                         2001 summer: 310175  209276  62242  23690  8221  6519  20015  645 
                         2001 winter: 329312  224959  65596  23919  7929  6675  24790  753 
                        
                         2002 summer: 301505  200155  63219  22956  8213  6686  18887  626 
                         2002 winter: 322491  218949  65895  22358  8184  6738  23474  728 
                        
                         2003 summer: 294364  194589  62689  21859  8027  6459  18563  631 
                         2003 winter: 337608  231020  69759  21916  7572  6652  26549  786 
                        
                         2004 summer: 291705  193071  63947  20536  7705  6267  18236  625 
                         2004 winter: 321697  218941  68521  20444  7039  6367  24608  765 
                        
                         2005 summer: 290894  190895  65325  20334  7737  6451  18054  621 
                         2005 winter: 315906  212137  69270  20466  7341  6492  22391  709 
                        
                         2006 summer: 292471  191080  66763  20218  7674  6535  17388  595 
                         2006 winter: 314254  209872  70410  19962  7221  6675  21393  681 
                        
                         2007 summer: 290717  189377  66462  20344  7644  6708  17437  600 
                         2007 winter: 316904  213532  70453  18906  6933  6895  23485  741 
                        
                         2008 summer: 289320  188522  67685  19186  7256  6492  18283  632 
                         2008 winter: 312840  209294  71360  18841  6748  6503  21836  698 
                        
                         2009 summer: 288347  187476  68618  18802  7070  6247  18407  638 
                         2009 winter: 305194  205143  70031  17682  6367  5693  22924  751 
                        
                         2010 summer: 280336  184912  66487  16698  6564  5459  17934  640 
                         2010 winter: 309626  209420  71224  17349  6217  5272  23473  758 
                        
                         2011 summer: 284801  187836  67573  17300  6562  5401  18333  644 
                         2011 winter: 298126  201173  68154  16950  6258  5420  20862  700 
                        
                         2012 summer: (274070 ... 642 )

                        total final deaths as reported by NCHS:
                        summer=May-Oct
                        winter=Nov-Apr next year

                        Code:
                        year s(NCHS) w(NCHS)  w/s  sM     wM       w/s psM pwM pw/ps psN pwN pw/ps
                        --------------------------------------------------------------------------
                        1996 1094858 1227320 1.120 307475 332842 1.082 571 721 1.262 303 439 1.449 
                        1997 1097784 1236451 1.126 301458 333799 1.107 582 736 1.264 311 463 1.487 
                        1998 1110243 1259356 1.134 304827 335000 1.098 590 736 1.247 316 340 1.076 
                        1999 1119077 1260203 1.126 299149 338855 1.132 591 836 1.414 204 312 1.531 
                        2000 1142182 1265075 1.107 307059 333287 1.085 660 743 1.125 216 284 1.314 
                        2001 1167124 1270837 1.088 310175 329312 1.061 645 753 1.167 228 302 1.322 
                        2002 1161116 1261698 1.086 301505 322491 1.069 626 728 1.162 225 275 1.219 
                        2003 1170091 1292784 1.104 294364 337608 1.146 631 786 1.245 223 300 1.346 
                        2004 1145411 1283584 1.120 291705 321697 1.102 625 765 1.224 209 286 1.368 
                        2005 1156150 1266169 1.095 290894 315906 1.085 621 709 1.141 207 260 1.253 
                        2006 1167154 1266023 1.084 292471 314254 1.074 595 681 1.144 200 243 1.216 
                        2007 1161398 1306103 1.124 290717 316904 1.090 600 741 1.235 189 253 1.338 
                        2008 1167596 1264179 1.082 289320 312840 1.081 632 698 1.104 187 223 1.196 
                        2009 1177474               288347 305194 1.058 638 751 1.177 191 215 1.125 
                        2010                       280336 309626 1.104 640 758 1.184
                        2011                       284801 298126 1.046 644 700 1.086
                                                            x1    x2        x3  x4


                        so we have the lowest adjusted 122-city winter-mortality (x1) since 1996, since when the data are
                        available at CDC-wonder. But the population of these 122-cities did presumably decline since 1996,
                        dying people are leaving the big cities.
                        Then we have the lowest 122-cities winter/summer draths-ratio (x2), which is unaffected by
                        such movements (unless they are just seasonal)
                        Then we had a very low P+I ratio this winter in the 122 cities (x3) and the lowest P+I winter/summer
                        ratio since 1996 (x4)


                        the MMWR P+I numbers are larger than the NCHS numbers, since they include all
                        death-certificates, where pneumonia or influenza is mentioned, even if only as secondary condition.
                        The NCHS numbers include only those which have pneumonia or influenza as primary
                        reason of death.
                        I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                        my current links: [url]http://bit.ly/hFI7H[/url] ILI-charts: [url]http://bit.ly/CcRgT[/url]

                        Comment


                        • #42
                          Re: Weekly MMWR (2011-2012) - Weeks 40-17 (Two Pediatric Deaths; Total 20)

                          Week 17:
                          2 influenza-associated pediatric deaths: CA (2); total 20

                          P&I deaths: 6.9&#37;
                          Pertussis beyond historical limits
                          http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwr...cid=mm6117md_w

                          Comment


                          • #43
                            Re: Weekly MMWR (2011-2012) - Weeks 40-18 (Two Pediatric Deaths; Total 22)

                            Week 18:
                            2 influenza-associated pediatric deaths: NC (1), WA (1); total 22

                            P&I deaths: 6.9%
                            Pertussis beyond historical limits
                            http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwr...cid=mm6118md_e

                            Comment


                            • #44
                              Re: Weekly MMWR (2011-2012) - Weeks 40-19 (Two Pediatric Deaths; Total 24)

                              Week 19:
                              2 influenza-associated pediatric deaths: NJ (1), HI (1); total 24

                              P&I deaths: 6.1%
                              Pertussis beyond historical limits
                              http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwr...cid=mm6119md_w

                              Comment


                              • #45
                                Re: Weekly MMWR (2011-2012) - Weeks 40-19 (Two Pediatric Deaths; Total 24)

                                "dramatic" decline in p+I mortality

                                http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weekly.../picurve19.gif

                                ------------------------------------------




                                USA:http://wonder.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwr_reps...&mmwr_table=4A




                                Europe: http://www.euromomo.eu/results/poole...led-zscore.png



                                Code:
                                week All >=65 45-64 25-44 1-24 <1  P+I
                                ---------------------------------------------
                                01 10,808  7,500  2,354  566  206  165  781  
                                02 12,220  8,233  2,859  654  273  195  922  
                                03 11,259  7,653  2,548  625  211  219  878  
                                04 12,252  8,220  2,902  699  223  204  917  
                                05 12,683  8,516  2,904  748  278  232  923  
                                06 11,207  7,573  2,604  612  225  192  754  
                                07 11,799  7,993  2,712  645  233  216  857  
                                08 10,950  7,411  2,541  598  220  179  832    760
                                09 11,934  8,011  2,791  649  235  246  901  
                                10 11,653  7,906  2,595  689  255  199  855  
                                11 11,449  7,863  2,523  615  237  207  864  
                                12 11,426  7,714  2,610  636  264  200  891  
                                13 10,848  7,259  2,499  652  222  213  778  
                                14 09,653  6,603  2,160  518  202  170  727  
                                15 11,054  7,451  2,534  648  228  193  774    700
                                16 11,028  7,423  2,522  628  250  202  765    694
                                17 11,465  7,729  2,621  643  251  215  794    693
                                18 10,361  6,923  2,453  581  206  195  718    693
                                19 10,707  7,213  2,464  634  210  186  655    612
                                20 10,728  7,139  2,534  613  229  210  685    639
                                21 10,709  7,087  2,595  612  228  185  706    659
                                22 09,228  6,092  2,150  565  228  190  553    599  
                                23 11,260  7,470  2,676  678  240  192  707    628 
                                24 10,091  6,648  2,381  631  243  168  634    628
                                25 10,578  7,070  2,474  634  217  174  646    611
                                26 10,283  6,783  2,436  632  248  183  675    656
                                27 08,832  5,883  2,110  492  182  164  539    610
                                28 10,805  7,071  2,584  664  284  198  644    596
                                29 10,541  6,915  2,509  659  253  200  592    562
                                30 10,237  6,650  2,475  642  271  191  575    562
                                31 10,107  6,657  2,377  604  247  196  585    579
                                32 10,274  6,743  2,509  602  238  178  588    572
                                33 10,170  6,715  2,469  604  194  184  616    606
                                34 10,934  7,157  2,599  692  252  233  609    557
                                35 10,669  7,137  2,441  660  224  202  594    557
                                36 09,874  6,452  2,394  622  224  181  588    596
                                37 11,016  7,312  2,619  642  243  197  691    627
                                38 10,537  6,994  2,506  583  238  214  648    615
                                39 11,048  7,423  2,612  598  215  198  691    625
                                40 10,562  6,995  2,524  621  228  193  623    590
                                41 10,117  6,788  2,377  580  208  160  636    629
                                42 11,899  7,969  2,749  696  248  234  679    571
                                43 09,816  6,570  2,310  568  194  171  638    650  
                                44 10,336  6,957  2,375  580  229  191  681    659
                                45 11,348  7,656  2,647  614  228  200  724    638
                                46 10,724  7,276  2,431  616  208  190  687    641
                                47 08,773  5,950  1,992  497  161  149  549    626
                                Attached Files
                                I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                                my current links: [url]http://bit.ly/hFI7H[/url] ILI-charts: [url]http://bit.ly/CcRgT[/url]

                                Comment

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