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Source: http://www.thebeenews.com/news/story...61740472983000
Utility exec urges pandemic preparations, in Woodstock talk
By Eric Norberg
The Bee, Jul 2, 2008
For some time, various civic and governmental leaders have been sounding the alarm for a future flu pandemic ? with the most likely culprit being the avian flu (HN51) in Asia.
The latest to address the potential catastrophe was Paul Capell, Director of Engineering (and formerly in charge of disaster preparations) at the Pacificorp electric utility. He spoke before the Southeast Portland Rotary Club at Country Bill?s restaurant in Woodstock, Monday noon, June 9th.
As Capell explained, the reason this warning keeps recurring is that every 30 to 40 years a major high-casualty flu virus sweeps the world, causing unusually high death rates, especially among children and the elderly. The worst example on record is the flu pandemic of 1918, but there have been at least two major such flus since.
And, as Capell explains, three factors make it a certainty that a similar disaster will recur.
The first factor is that the flu virus constantly mutates ? we don?t lose our immunity to a flu we?ve been inoculated against or have experienced, but since the virus keeps changing, we are not immune to any of the mutations. The annual flu shot contains the latest mutations, reflecting doctors? best guess about which flus will be widespread each winter. It takes at least four months to make a vaccine against a specific flu variation.
The second factor is modern transportation ? today it takes only 3 to 8 weeks for a new flu to circle the globe, carried by infected people traveling by air.
And the third factor is that infected people can spread the virus widely in the first 24 to 48 hours of infection ? which is BEFORE they feel any symptoms.
So, Pacificorp, being considered by the Office of Homeland Security a critical industry, along with healthcare and transportation, has come up with plans to address a flu pandemic as soon as one is identified as being in the making.
A key element is that all non-critical employees will be sent home, and systems have been set up to allow half the company?s staff to work from home by computer during this time. ?Critical service must be maintained,? explained Capell.
For the population at large, once a flu epidemic is identified and announced, it is vital to avoid contact with others who may be infected ? and, he said, although the virus can be spread even at a distance of two or three feet by breathing and conversation, conventional and inexpensive filter masks, such as are available at home improvement and hardware stores, are quite effective as a block of the virus. (Get enough for your family now; in an epidemic they will quickly become hard to get!)
Get your flu shot each year ? you cannot be infected by a flu shot, and they do provide protection against the flu variants that are included in the shot.
So far, the avian flu in Asia has only spread from a few infected birds to people, but the disaster scenario ? person-to-person transmission ? has apparently not yet occurred. If and when the virus mutates enough to allow person-to-person infection, the pandemic will be underway, and will sweep the world quickly. (The 1918 flu epidemic has recently been found to have been caused by a very similar virus to the current avian flu.)
Capell advised making plans and taking precautions now ? to be ready when the next flu epidemic inevitably sweeps through Inner Southeast Portland.
Utility exec urges pandemic preparations, in Woodstock talk
By Eric Norberg
The Bee, Jul 2, 2008
For some time, various civic and governmental leaders have been sounding the alarm for a future flu pandemic ? with the most likely culprit being the avian flu (HN51) in Asia.
The latest to address the potential catastrophe was Paul Capell, Director of Engineering (and formerly in charge of disaster preparations) at the Pacificorp electric utility. He spoke before the Southeast Portland Rotary Club at Country Bill?s restaurant in Woodstock, Monday noon, June 9th.
As Capell explained, the reason this warning keeps recurring is that every 30 to 40 years a major high-casualty flu virus sweeps the world, causing unusually high death rates, especially among children and the elderly. The worst example on record is the flu pandemic of 1918, but there have been at least two major such flus since.
And, as Capell explains, three factors make it a certainty that a similar disaster will recur.
The first factor is that the flu virus constantly mutates ? we don?t lose our immunity to a flu we?ve been inoculated against or have experienced, but since the virus keeps changing, we are not immune to any of the mutations. The annual flu shot contains the latest mutations, reflecting doctors? best guess about which flus will be widespread each winter. It takes at least four months to make a vaccine against a specific flu variation.
The second factor is modern transportation ? today it takes only 3 to 8 weeks for a new flu to circle the globe, carried by infected people traveling by air.
And the third factor is that infected people can spread the virus widely in the first 24 to 48 hours of infection ? which is BEFORE they feel any symptoms.
So, Pacificorp, being considered by the Office of Homeland Security a critical industry, along with healthcare and transportation, has come up with plans to address a flu pandemic as soon as one is identified as being in the making.
A key element is that all non-critical employees will be sent home, and systems have been set up to allow half the company?s staff to work from home by computer during this time. ?Critical service must be maintained,? explained Capell.
For the population at large, once a flu epidemic is identified and announced, it is vital to avoid contact with others who may be infected ? and, he said, although the virus can be spread even at a distance of two or three feet by breathing and conversation, conventional and inexpensive filter masks, such as are available at home improvement and hardware stores, are quite effective as a block of the virus. (Get enough for your family now; in an epidemic they will quickly become hard to get!)
Get your flu shot each year ? you cannot be infected by a flu shot, and they do provide protection against the flu variants that are included in the shot.
So far, the avian flu in Asia has only spread from a few infected birds to people, but the disaster scenario ? person-to-person transmission ? has apparently not yet occurred. If and when the virus mutates enough to allow person-to-person infection, the pandemic will be underway, and will sweep the world quickly. (The 1918 flu epidemic has recently been found to have been caused by a very similar virus to the current avian flu.)
Capell advised making plans and taking precautions now ? to be ready when the next flu epidemic inevitably sweeps through Inner Southeast Portland.