Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

U.S. expected to see bird-flu pandemic soon

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • U.S. expected to see bird-flu pandemic soon

    U.S. expected to see bird-flu pandemic soon

    A bird-flu pandemic likely will reach U.S. shores in the next decade, Dr. Kristy Bradley, deputy state epidemiologist for the Oklahoma State Department of Health, said Tuesday.

    "Prior to the last decade or so, the thought was the influenza from birds would be mild or just cause conjunctivitis in humans," she said at the second annual Prevention Conference, being held through Wednesday at the Tulsa Marriott Southern Hills hotel, 1902 E. 71st St.

    But "bells went off" in 1997 when 18 people in Hong Kong contracted bird flu and six died from it, Bradley said.

    "Bird flu" refers to an influenza from a virus found chiefly in birds, but infections can occur in humans.

    "We've been tracking H5N1 (a strain of bird flu) since 1997," Bradley said. "It has continued to spread to parts of Africa and the Middle East and continues to cause a lot of problems in Asia."

    The questions are whether the U.S. should worry about a bird-flu pandemic and whether the nation is prepared to
    respond to a massive outbreak of the virus, she said.

    "We do get a little more concerned about the H5N1 virus because it's not behaving like any other bird flu we've seen," Bradley said.

    It has shown resistance to antiviral medications, and human-to-human transmission has been confirmed, she said.

    "We always have that possibility we could have an imported case in our country," she said.

    Depending on its severity, a U.S. bird-flu pandemic could mean that 43 million to 100 million people would be infected and an estimated 89,000 to 207,000 people would die, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

    Between 314,000 and 733,000 Americans would be hospitalized, again depending on the severity of the outbreak, Bradley said.

    "Hospitals would be stretched to the max," she said.

    The economic impact of a U.S. bird-flu pandemic is estimated at between $71 billion and $166 billion, Bradley said.

    "That can seem pretty daunting," she said.

    Both the federal government and Oklahoma health authorities have plans in place to respond to such a crisis, Bradley said.

    Vaccines typically are the first line of defense for a flu outbreak, although authorities are limited to speculation about which strain of virus will prompt an epidemic.

    The U.S. has begun stockpiling 40 million doses -- at two doses per person -- of prepandemic H5N1 bird flu vaccine. Oklahoma is set to receive 20,000 doses of the vaccine, Bradley said.

    After five years, the medication loses its effectiveness, so the doses must be thrown out and new ones brought in, she said.

    "This is the hedging and the risks you take, because you cannot predict how effective it will be," Bradley said.

    State plans include prioritizing who will get the vaccine based on risk factors for complications, she said.

    Any flu pandemic that hits the U.S. most likely would originate from a bird influenza, Bradley said.

    "As you can see, it's very much up in the air," she said. "Nature generally has the upper hand."

  • #2
    Re: U.S. expected to see bird-flu pandemic soon

    I contacted the writer and sent her our 30 Day Preps List. For some reason it would not post, via the article comments.

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: U.S. expected to see bird-flu pandemic soon

      > U.S. expected to see bird-flu pandemic soon

      who makes those headlines ?

      > A bird-flu pandemic likely will reach U.S. shores in the next decade, Dr. Kristy Bradley,
      > deputy state epidemiologist for the Oklahoma State Department of Health, said Tuesday.

      what's "likely" ? >50% ? why the next decade and not this ?

      > Depending on its severity, a U.S. bird-flu pandemic could mean that 43 million to 100 million people
      > would be infected and an estimated 89,000 to 207,000 people would die, according to the
      > U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

      just one model, there are other estimates. Better give the expectation value of deaths.
      While a mild pandemic seems more probable, the high damage of a severe one
      dominates the expectation value.

      >Between 314,000 and 733,000 Americans would be hospitalized, again depending on the
      >severity of the outbreak

      could also be more than 733T or less than 314T

      > The economic impact of a U.S. bird-flu pandemic is estimated at between $71 billion
      > and $166 billion

      there are other estimates. I remember a worldbank estimate of $850B globally

      >The U.S. has begun stockpiling 40 million doses -- at two doses per person -- of prepandemic
      >H5N1 bird flu vaccine. Oklahoma is set to receive 20,000 doses of the vaccine

      >Any flu pandemic that hits the U.S. most likely would originate from a bird influenza

      I wouldn't say "most" likely, only "likely". It could also be from changing H3N2,H1N1,
      reassortment with swineflu,horseflu or just one new segment from avian origin
      reassorting with 7 segments of human origin
      I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
      my current links: [url]http://bit.ly/hFI7H[/url] ILI-charts: [url]http://bit.ly/CcRgT[/url]

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: U.S. expected to see bird-flu pandemic soon

        My comments are marked in blue below.

        Originally posted by gsgs View Post
        > U.S. expected to see bird-flu pandemic soon

        who makes those headlines ?

        Headlines are designed to draw the reader's attention, not tell the truth.

        > A bird-flu pandemic likely will reach U.S. shores in the next decade, Dr. Kristy Bradley,
        > deputy state epidemiologist for the Oklahoma State Department of Health, said Tuesday.

        what's "likely" ? >50% ? why the next decade and not this ?

        Journalists need to grab the reader's attention in the first paragraph at the expense of probability estimates.

        > Depending on its severity, a U.S. bird-flu pandemic could mean that 43 million to 100 million people
        > would be infected and an estimated 89,000 to 207,000 people would die, according to the
        > U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

        just one model, there are other estimates. Better give the expectation value of deaths.
        While a mild pandemic seems more probable, the high damage of a severe one
        dominates the expectation value.

        How do you develop your probability that a mild pandemic is "more probable"?

        >Between 314,000 and 733,000 Americans would be hospitalized, again depending on the
        >severity of the outbreak

        could also be more than 733T or less than 314T

        Or it could be 54,000,000 Americans dead from a CFR of 60%.

        > The economic impact of a U.S. bird-flu pandemic is estimated at between $71 billion
        > and $166 billion

        there are other estimates. I remember a worldbank estimate of $850B globally

        You are correct, other estimates are available. Asserting a fixed range ($71 billion to $166 billion) implies that TPTB have studied the issues carefully and have completely encompassed the potential range of economic impact.

        >The U.S. has begun stockpiling 40 million doses -- at two doses per person -- of prepandemic
        >H5N1 bird flu vaccine. Oklahoma is set to receive 20,000 doses of the vaccine

        >Any flu pandemic that hits the U.S. most likely would originate from a bird influenza

        I wouldn't say "most" likely, only "likely". It could also be from changing H3N2,H1N1,
        reassortment with swineflu, horseflu or just one new segment from avian origin
        reassorting with 7 segments of human origin

        You are correct again, "likely" rather than "most likely".

        gsgs, your studious efforts on avian influenza have sensitized you to the nuances of pandemics and potential pandemics. The journalist who wrote this article has probably not spent the time and effort you have studying human pandemics. Bird flu (H5N1) is currently the front runner in the race for a human pandemic, but another infectious influenza strain, as you mentioned, could also become the next human pandemic strain.
        http://novel-infectious-diseases.blogspot.com/

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: U.S. expected to see bird-flu pandemic soon

          > How do you develop your probability that a mild pandemic is "more probable"?

          mainly actuaries, statistics, historical experience,

          > Bird flu (H5N1) is currently the front runner in the race for a human pandemic, but another
          > infectious influenza strain, as you mentioned, could also become the next human
          > pandemic strain

          and then there are hybrids=reassortants. I remember, one of the few experts who gave
          me a probability estimate considered a mere H5N1-pandemic as 10% but a
          H5-pandemic with human genes as 30%. However, that was before the
          reassortant experiments last year were done.
          I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
          my current links: [url]http://bit.ly/hFI7H[/url] ILI-charts: [url]http://bit.ly/CcRgT[/url]

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: U.S. expected to see bird-flu pandemic soon

            here we even get that
            > a long-lasting pandemic with catastrophic impact is
            > likely to happen

            but no time frame is given

            >and overdue

            but no referrence to studies showing cyclic
            recurrent behaviour of pandemics
            http://www.psandman.com/CIDRAP/CIDRAP6.htm


            ----------------------------------


            http://global.marsh.com/news/press/092707.php

            LAS VEGAS, Nevada, September 27 /PRNewswire/ -- A new report issued
            today by Marsh and The Albright Group, two of the world's foremost risk
            experts, warns that the catastrophic impacts of a long-lasting pandemic are
            not only likely to happen, but overdue. The study also states the impact of
            a pandemic is likely to exceed what most corporate and governmental leaders
            have imagined, or are prepared for. This comes on the heels of U.S.
            government reports issued earlier this month that come to similar
            conclusions.
            . The report's findings will be discussed by experts
            during the 5th International Bird Flu Summit, being held here this week at
            the Thomas & Mack Center.
            . However, since there is
            no effective risk transfer mechanism for a pandemic, the only answer
            remains planning and mitigation activities.
            http://www.marsh.com.

            --------------------------------------
            **what about mortality bonds as risk transfer mechanism ?
            I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
            my current links: [url]http://bit.ly/hFI7H[/url] ILI-charts: [url]http://bit.ly/CcRgT[/url]

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: U.S. expected to see bird-flu pandemic soon

              Originally posted by gsgs View Post

              **what about mortality bonds as risk transfer mechanism ?
              With the "settlements" many of the Katrina victims got from the losses of their homes and property (and that was just limited to a relatively small area of the country) can you really put much hope or faith in insurance companies or mortality bonds to preserve capital and limit risk in a world wide pandemic? Preserving capital in the event of a pandemic is an excellent topic. I would like to hear more on it from more knowledgeable and experienced professionals.
              We were put on this earth to help and take care of one another.

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: U.S. expected to see bird-flu pandemic soon

                $4400B pandemic damage and 140M dead now


                http://www.marketwatch.com/news/stor...%7D&siteid=rss

                A bird flu pandemic could lead to global economic losses of up to $4.4 trillion and the death of more than 140 million people, according to a study by the Marsh and the Albright Group released at the 5th International Bird Flu summit on Thursday. The study also found that an epidemic would reach the U.S. within two weeks of the first outbreak and that 25% of the world's population would fall ill, with work absenteeism rising to at least 35%.

                -----------------------

                previous pandemics needed many months to reach USA from Asia
                seasonal flu only comes in winter
                I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                my current links: [url]http://bit.ly/hFI7H[/url] ILI-charts: [url]http://bit.ly/CcRgT[/url]

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: U.S. expected to see bird-flu pandemic soon

                  AC , mortality bonds are being paid (bought) now by investors
                  or investment companies.
                  The insurers get the money.
                  If a pandemic with high mortality happens, the investors
                  lose their money, the reinsurers needn't pay it back.

                  privates can't use mortality-bonds, I think. Only big companies
                  and it's complicated. But those companies could offer contracts to
                  privates and reassure themselves by selling mortality bonds.

                  Apparantly there is not much interest from privates...

                  If you're afraid of inflation, you can buy bond-puts,gold-calls or such.
                  I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                  my current links: [url]http://bit.ly/hFI7H[/url] ILI-charts: [url]http://bit.ly/CcRgT[/url]

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: U.S. expected to see bird-flu pandemic soon

                    What about hedging with more tangible assets such as land or gold coins? Granted you can not eat coins. What do you think of farmable land relatively close to larger port cities? Pros, cons?
                    We were put on this earth to help and take care of one another.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: U.S. expected to see bird-flu pandemic soon

                      Originally posted by Amish Country View Post
                      What about hedging with more tangible assets such as land or gold coins? Granted you can not eat coins. What do you think of farmable land relatively close to larger port cities? Pros, cons?

                      With a high CFR real estate prices will plummet. Owning arable land near remaining population centers after a pandemic would be a good investment. The problem will be obtaining enough laborers or helpers to farm the land and harvest the produce. The delivery and distribution of locally produced meats and vegetables will also be problematical if we have disruptions in the supply of diesel and gas.
                      http://novel-infectious-diseases.blogspot.com/

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: U.S. expected to see bird-flu pandemic soon

                        Originally Posted by Amish Country
                        What about hedging with more tangible assets such as land or gold coins? Granted you can not eat coins. What do you think of farmable land relatively close to larger port cities? Pros, cons?

                        If the past times (in some regions of the world - the present times) are the teachers of life, than during the first 1-3 years after a start of an catastrofic pandemic the needs will be concentrated only on basic things: food, water, energy, and obviously all must be stocked previously (Laidback Al point the likely disruptions).
                        If the subject is rich, than it can invest in gold coins for trade.

                        Comment

                        Working...
                        X