Doctors: Avian Flu may become pandemic

[Snowy Owl]

Doctors: Avian Flu may become pandemic

http://www.nptelegraph.com

Six people were left standing at a mini-medical school Thursday.
Of the approximately 30 or so participants, only the six had prepared for an emergency, leaving the rest to demonstrate the 88 percent of Americans who have not readied for a disaster.

Three presenters from the University of Nebraska Medical Center in Omaha discussed avian flu, which medical professionals are concerned will become a pandemic if the illness changes to transmit from human to human.
Dr. Joann Schaefer, Nebraska's chief medical officer, said a pandemic is a completely new virus a person has never been exposed to, and doesn't have antibodies to it.

"An epidemic is an illness where you still have a virus that your body has seen before, but with a slight change," she said.

Dr. Philip Smith, chief of infectious diseases at UNMC, said there is a great deal of interest in Avian flu.

"It is time we review where we are with Avian flu," he said.

He stressed there is no hiding from a pandemic, which is what might occur with an outbreak of human-to-human transmission of the Avian flu.
He described the three flu pandemics in history - the 1918 Spanish flu, the 1957 Asian flu and the 1968 Hong Kong flu.

"The Spanish flu pandemic killed 20 million to 40 million people worldwide and 675,000 in the United States," Smith said.
He said it had a huge social impact, and noted there weren't enough coffins to bury people.

He said the fear with Avian flu is the mortality rate.
"Two hundred people have developed this flu and 100 have died," Smith said. "The normal death rate from the flu is usually one in 1,000. This is extremely alarming."

Although the Asian countries have been hardest hit, Smith said the situation is evolving towards sustained and rapid human-to-human transmission.

He said there are five checkpoints and four have been met:
n There have been continued outbreaks among domestic poultry
n The virus has lethally affected mammals such as cats and pigs
n The virus is evolving
n There have been 200 human cases
"The fifth is the sustained and rapid person-to-person transmission," Smith said.
He said this virus is more aggressive and more virulent than other flu viruses.
World Health Organizations have been working with state and government agencies to watch for the next flu outbreak.

Schaefer said she receives a weekly report from local health departments and hospitals with numbers of patients admitted with influenza-like illnesses.
"We look for unusual trends," she said.
Medical care for those with flu-like illnesses range from isolation to ventilators.
"One or two cases we can isolate in a hospital," she said. "Seven thousand cases becomes a problem."

Sharon Medcalf, associate director of the Center for Biopreparedness Education, said the recent hurricanes made emergency preparation personal.
She said the current belief is to have a two- to three-day supply stocked for emergencies.

"Now, we are being told that a flu pandemic could last four to six weeks," she said.
A Web site, www.pandemicflu.gov, has information for schools, businesses and communities to help prepare for such an event.
"Our just-in-time society could end up biting us," she said. "We have to be prepared for stores running out of supplies and not being able to go to the 24-hour Walgreens for aspirin."

Medcalf said another Web site, www.bioprepare.gov, contains preparedness information. A number of agencies have designed week-by-week calendars to help families complete an emergency plan.
Medcalf said employers and businesses need a plan, too.

"Plan on 40 percent of your employees being too ill to work," she said. "We need to change a mind set of coming to work when we don't feel well."
She said schools might close to prevent the spread of the disease, transportation might shut down and lives will be disrupted.

"Social distance is the best way to prevent the spread of the flu," she said.
Medcalf said people need to address emergency needs as a neighborhood, too, checking in with neighbors who might be disabled or have small children.

"Be prepared to work together," she said. "Get involved with your community, your neighborhood and offer to help during an emergency."