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Doctors Earl Fox, Earl Campazzi urge preparations for possible flu pandemic

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  • Doctors Earl Fox, Earl Campazzi urge preparations for possible flu pandemic

    Doctors Earl Fox, Earl Campazzi urge preparations for possible flu pandemic
    <!-- newsworthy --><!--endtext--><SCRIPT src="http://alt.coxnewsweb.com/cnishared/js/NewsworthyAudioC2L.js" type=text/javascript></SCRIPT><SCRIPT src="http://alt.coxnewsweb.com/cnishared/newsworthy/palmbeachdailynews/news/palmbeachdailynews_news_Pandemic0412.js" type=text/javascript></SCRIPT><!--begintext--><!-- http://alt.coxnewsweb.com/cnishared/...ndemic0412.mp3 -->
    By DAVID ROGERS, Daily News Staff Writer

    Saturday, April 12, 2008
    <!--endtext--><!-- begin _story_inset_and_medium_rect.html vim: set sts=2 ts=2 sw=2 et: --><!--end _story_inset_and_medium_rect.html --><!--begintext-->While it gets less attention than AIDS, prostate cancer and traffic accidents, the flu causes more deaths each year in the United States than any of those causes, according to Dr. Earl Fox, director of the Florida Public Health Institute.
    Although influenza is a contributing factor in the deaths of 40,000 to 60,000 U.S. residents each year, individuals and businesses are not prepared for a more potent, widespread influenza strain that could be far more destructive, Fox told guests at a Palm Beach Chamber of Commerce breakfast at The Breakers on Thursday.
    Fox, a research professor in epidemiology and public health at the University of Miami Miller School of Medicine, discussed "Pandemics: The New Realities."
    The Florida Public Health Institute, in Lantana, was formed by the University of Miami, the Quantum Foundation, the health department and other groups in 2007 to develop an integrated, more collaborative approach to public health services in Palm Beach County.
    "Although people still believe there is a very significant possibility that we can and will have an outbreak of avian or bird flu, there is 100 percent assurance we will have a pandemic (global) influenza outbreak at some point in the next few years," Fox said.
    The country has experienced three major flu pandemics in the past 100 years. The first of those, in 1918-1919, caused more than 650,000 American deaths and from 30 million to 50 million deaths worldwide, according to the federal government.
    The other pandemics, in 1957-1958 and 1968-1969, caused far fewer deaths because of the development of vaccines, Fox said.
    "We are due for the next pandemic," Fox said.
    That episode will likely last two years, he said.
    Fox said it often takes at least six months to develop a flu vaccine. If a strong pandemic were to strike, traditional coping methods would likely prove minimally effective at stopping the spread of the virus, he said.
    Fox serves on a pandemic influenza advisory committee for Swiss pharmaceutical giant Hoffman-La Roche, maker of Tamiflu, an oral antiviral drug that reduces the length and severity of the flu.
    Most people cannot afford to stay home for an extended amount of time, and face masks are of questionable value, Fox said.
    In addition, only limited amounts of antiviral drugs are stockpiled in this country, and certain government agencies are at the top of the list for receiving them. And those antivirals must be used within the first 24 to 48 hours of the onset of flu symptoms to be useful, Fox said.
    "As you may know, the Florida Legislature decided in its wisdom last year not to buy any antivirals for the State of Florida," Fox said. "There are no stockpiles in Florida."
    Individuals can stockpile antiviral medications on their own. They have a shelf life of seven years, Fox said.

    Local physician urges plan for businesses
    Dr. Earl Campazzi, of Island Medical Care, like Fox recommends that businesses and other organizations develop a contingency plan for flu pandemics that takes into account staffing needs, antiviral drug stocks and on-site infection control supplies, such as hand-cleaning products, masks, gloves and tissues.
    He recommends getting an annual flu shot and making sure all family members have a five-day (10-pill) supply of Tamiflu.
    "We talk about our local government and local politics, but we always have big daddy, the federal government, to help us," Campazzi said. "If there is a hurricane, the National Guard comes. If there is any foreign threat, we have the military. But here it's affecting the whole country, and we are really going to rely on the county and the town almost exclusively."
    Preparing for a flu pandemic is as important as preparing for a hurricane, Campazzi said.
    Campazzi distributed copies of a pandemic influenza planning checklist for businesses. The check list is available online at https://www.pandemicflu.gov/plan/bus....html.:tiphat: http://www.palmbeachdailynews.com/ne...demic0412.html
    CSI:WORLD http://swineflumagazine.blogspot.com/

    treyfish2004@yahoo.com

  • #2
    Re: Doctors Earl Fox, Earl Campazzi urge preparations for possible flu pandemic

    > there is 100 percent assurance we will have a pandemic (global)
    > influenza outbreak at some point in the next few years," Fox said.

    > The other pandemics, in 1957-1958 and 1968-1969,
    > caused far fewer deaths because of the development of vaccines,
    > Fox said.

    >"We are due for the next pandemic," Fox said.
    >That episode will likely last two years, he said.

    Fox discredits himself with such statements.
    We know it better.
    I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
    my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Doctors Earl Fox, Earl Campazzi urge preparations for possible flu pandemic

      Originally posted by gsgs View Post
      > there is 100 percent assurance we will have a pandemic (global)
      > influenza outbreak at some point in the next few years," Fox said.

      > The other pandemics, in 1957-1958 and 1968-1969,
      > caused far fewer deaths because of the development of vaccines,
      > Fox said.

      >"We are due for the next pandemic," Fox said.
      >That episode will likely last two years, he said.

      Fox discredits himself with such statements.
      We know it better.
      Although influenza vaccines already exist in the eve of '58 and '68 pandemics, it is not clear if they played a role if any in relent the spread of the novel viral strains. The minor mortality perhaps is connected by antigenic characteristics of those viruses.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Doctors Earl Fox, Earl Campazzi urge preparations for possible flu pandemic

        USA had some vaccine, but they didn't do much better
        than the rest of the world


        ---------------------------------------
        1957 A(H2N2)
        First isolates to vaccine manufacturers in May; by mid-June small amounts of inactivated, whole-cell vaccine produced
        By Aug, production at maximum of 10 M doses per month
        When 1st wave peaked in Nov, 49 M doses had been produced
        deaths in USA:70000 (Potter:80000) , worldwide:1M-1.5M , (WHO:2M) mortality 1:4000
        ---------------------------------------
        1968 A(H3N2)
        Vaccine production began within 2 months of availability of new strain, improvement of ~1 month
        1st wave peaked only 4 months from start of vaccine production
        Only 20 M doses were available
        deaths in USA:33000 , infected: 50M , worldwide:0.8M-1M (WHO:1M)
        ---------------------------------------


        Potter:
        in total the 1957 pandemic affected some 40-50&#37; of people, of which
        25-30% experienced clinical disease.
        Mortality was estimated to be 1:4000
        80000 deaths in USA and a similar number, adjusted for population, occurred in many
        other countries.


        USA did much worse than Europe in the first wave in 1968: (but better in the 2nd wave 1969)
        We found a consistent pattern of mortality being delayed until the second pandemic season of A/H3N2 circulation in Europe and Asia. We hypothesize that this phenomenon may be explained by higher preexisting neuraminidase immunity (from the A/H2N2 era) in Europe and Asia than in North America, combin …

        I have seen this being attributed to Vietnam-travel elsewhere
        I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
        my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: Doctors Earl Fox, Earl Campazzi urge preparations for possible flu pandemic

          hmm, 40M doses of vaccine in 1957 for USA.

          Had there been any statistics, how the vaccinated people
          did in 1957 as compared to the non-vaccinated ?

          Well, if they did well, the vaccine-industry probably had published
          and advertised it, so I assume it didn't make much of a difference.
          I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
          my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Doctors Earl Fox, Earl Campazzi urge preparations for possible flu pandemic

            more on vaccines in 1957 and 1968:



            In the late spring of 1957, investigators at the Walter Reed Army Institute of Research determined that the virus was Type A but antigenically different from any of the previously known Type A strains. This meant that existing vaccine would not be effective against this new strain. In late May, prototype strains were sent to licensed influenza vaccine manufacturers so that they could produce a new vaccine and the first experimental vaccine was submitted to the PHS's Division of Biologic Standards for testing on June 7th. A crash program of production led to the first lots of vaccine becoming available in August. But the epidemic's arrival in the U.S. in June meant that only limited supplies of the vaccine were available when it would have been most useful.
            The PHS did take several other steps to deal with the vaccine. Among these was the creation of a voluntary allocation system to ensure that each state received an equitable share of the vaccine. First priority in vaccination was to be given to those who were considered medical risks (the aged and the debilitated) as well as to persons whose services were considered vital to the nation. PHS Surgeon General Leroy Burney complained, however, that except for manufacturers distributing vaccines to states on the basis of population, these guidelines were not followed in many instances.

            In the early summer of 1968, scientists isolated a strain of Type A2 virus that differed markedly in character from the A2 strains which had been prevalent in recent years. Recognizing that the current vaccine would produce no more than limited protection against this new strain, PHS Surgeon General William Stewart outlined a five-point plan of attack against the emerging epidemic. This involved research, epidemic intelligence, health education, medical care and prevention through vaccination. Efforts to develop a new vaccine were quickly initiated but supplies of this would be limited when the epidemic hit the US. Stewart, like his predecessor, called for those at risk to be given priority in receiving vaccinations. But many of these deemed to be most at risk did not take advantage of the vaccine.


            Inactivated influenza virus vaccines
            appeared less effective for pandemic influenza in 1968 than in 1957.


            ...contained by vaccinating 80%
            I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
            my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

            Comment

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