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Comparisons of Current Season to 2010-11 and 2007-08

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  • Comparisons of Current Season to 2010-11 and 2007-08

    During 2010-11 the percent positive for influenza virus peaked at 36%: 74% A and 26% B with influenza A (H3N2) being predominant over 2009 influenza A (H1N1). Currently, ~80% A and ~20% B, A(H3N2) predominant. Showing peak at 37%?

    During the 2010-11 influenza season, P&I exceeded the epidemic threshold for 9 weeks. Current season, P&I has been at or slightly exceeded threshold only four times) since week 40.

    From October 3, 2010, to May 21, 2011, 122 laboratory-confirmed influenza-associated pediatric deaths were reported. (Of 105 deaths, 40 were associated with influenza B viruses, 27 with 2009 influenza A (H1N1) virus, 18 with influenza A (H3N2) viruses, and 20 with influenza A virus for which the subtype was not determined) Currently around 37 pediatric influenza-associated deaths have been reported. (Of 29 deaths, 10 were associated with influenza B and 19 with influenza A). http://gis.cdc.gov/GRASP/Fluview/PedFluDeath.html

    88 influenza-associated pediatric deaths were reported for the 2007-08 season; A (H3) predominated with 28.7% B; above the epidemic threshold for 13 consecutive weeks.
    http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm6021a5.htm
    http://gis.cdc.gov/GRASP/Fluview/PedFluDeath.html
    http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/sho...254#post480254

    Season 2010-11 (at peak of recorded hospitalizations) per 100,000 vs current season per 100,000:
    Age group 5-17: (9.1) vs currently (4.8) ~2x less than 2010-11
    Age group 18-49: (11.4) vs currently (5.6) ~2x less than 2010-11
    Age group 50-64: (21.9) vs currently (12.1) ~2x less than 2010-11
    Age group 0-4yr: (46.2) vs currently (22.4) ~2x less than 2010-11
    Age group >64 : (64.0) vs currently (53.4)

    In 2010-11, hospitalization rates overall were similar to rates reported during the 2007-08 influenza season, when influenza A (H3N2) was the predominant strain and was less severe than the pandemic year (2009-10) and the 2007-08 season, but more severe than the 2008-09 influenza season, as determined by the percentage of deaths resulting from pneumonia or influenza, the number of influenza-associated pediatric deaths reported, and the percentage of visits to outpatient clinics for ILI.
    http://gis.cdc.gov/GRASP/Fluview/FluHospRates.html
    http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/

    Looking at the current data, the only age group that may exceed the 2010-11 hospitalization rate is 65 and older, unless the reporting lag changes things drastically.

  • #2
    Re: Comparisons of Current Season to 2010-11 and 2007-08

    Week 3 FluView still indicating peak in week 52 at 37.63% positive (~80% A; ~20% B); in 2010-11 peak positive was 35.4%
    ILI: peaking at 6% (week 52); in 2010-11 it peaked twice at 4.6%

    While hospitalizations are still rising, there is an indication of leveling. The current season is approaching the hospitalization levels seen in the 2010-11 season (EXCEPT IN OVER 64 YEARS, WHERE THEY HAVE WELL EXCEEDED).

    2010-11 (at peak of recorded hospitalizations) per 100,000 vs 2012-13 per 100,000:
    Age group 5-17: (9.1) vs currently (6.6)
    Age group 18-49: (11.4) vs currently (8.6)
    Age group 50-64: (21.9) vs currently (20.3)
    Age group 0-4yr: (46.2) vs currently (31.8)
    Age group >64 : (64.0) vs currently (97.7)

    Currently, ILI (week 3: 9.8%) has exceeded threshold 8 times; it exceeded threshold 13 times in 2010-11 (peaking week 7 at 4.5%)

    P&I deaths had remained basically at or below threshold until this week (week 3); it exceeded threshold 9 times in 2010-11.
    http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weekly...-11summary.htm

    Pediatric deaths now officially stand at 37 (21 from influenza A; 16 from B) and (not yet in FluView) at 44. In 2010-11, they reached 122.
    http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/sho...254#post480254
    http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/pastreports.htm

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Comparisons of Current Season to 2010-11 and 2007-08

      Comparison to this season is 2007-08
      (from CDC Summary dated June 2008)

      In season 2007-08:
      ILI peaked at 6% in week 7 (had been at or above baseline from weeks 52-12)

      Percent positive peaked at 32% (~71% A; ~29% B; majority A/H3N2)

      P&I deaths peaked at 9.1% and exceeded threshold 19 consecutive weeks.

      There were 83 pediatric deaths (51 from influenza A; 27 from B) An updated report lists 88 pediatric deaths. http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm6107a3.htm
      EIP listed hospitalizations at 40.3 per 100,000 in ages 0-4 and 5.5 per 100,000 in ages 5-17.
      http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm5725a5.htm

      How well did circulating viruses match the vaccine strains during the 2007-2008 season?
      The majority (66%) of influenza A (H1N1) viruses were found to be similar to the vaccine strain. However, 77% of influenza A (H3N2) and 98% of B viruses sent to CDC for further testing were not optimally matched to the 2007-2008 influenza vaccine strains.
      http://www.cdc.gov/flu/pastseasons/0708season.htm

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Comparisons of Current Season to 2010-11 and 2007-08

        when we take total ILI over the whole season, then the differences
        between the seasons are surprisingly small.
        Just 30% for 2003f vs. 2011f
        The more you have early, the less you have later.
        And vice versa.

        Code:
        season (33 weeks starting in week 40)
        reported ILI-cases
        total patients
        unweighted ILI-ratio
        unweighted ILI-ratio,first 16 weeks of season only
        -----------------------------
         1997f   38801   1799569  215 202
         1998f   60994   2899484  210 145
         1999f   67607   3689076  183 249
         2000f   95343   4656258  204 204
         2001f   87749   5159857  170 142
         2002f  112143   6847549  163 142
         2003f  207620   9168605  226 323
         2004f  248229  11532336  215 157
         2005f  221908  11871824  186 168
         2006f  305157  16285622  187 169
         2007f  419754  17343497  242 176
         2008f  365582  19144557  190 138
         2009f  726650  25085610  289 423
         2010f  556223  24039598  231 206
         2011f  398592  24357247  163 151
         2012f  308961  11143195  --- 277
        I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
        my current links: [url]http://bit.ly/hFI7H[/url] ILI-charts: [url]http://bit.ly/CcRgT[/url]

        Comment

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