Check out the FAQ,Terms of Service & Disclaimers by clicking the
link. Please register
to be able to post. By viewing this site you are agreeing to our Terms of Service and Acknowledge our Disclaimers.
FluTrackers.com Inc. does not provide medical advice. Information on this web site is collected from various internet resources, and the FluTrackers board of directors makes no warranty to the safety, efficacy, correctness or completeness of the information posted on this site by any author or poster.
The information collated here is for instructional and/or discussion purposes only and is NOT intended to diagnose or treat any disease, illness, or other medical condition. Every individual reader or poster should seek advice from their personal physician/healthcare practitioner before considering or using any interventions that are discussed on this website.
By continuing to access this website you agree to consult your personal physican before using any interventions posted on this website, and you agree to hold harmless FluTrackers.com Inc., the board of directors, the members, and all authors and posters for any effects from use of any medication, supplement, vitamin or other substance, device, intervention, etc. mentioned in posts on this website, or other internet venues referenced in posts on this website.
We are not asking for any donations. Do not donate to any entity who says they are raising funds for us.
what's your estimate of the probability that there will be a
non-H1 influenza pandemic in 2010 ?
reassortment with current ****** does count, if a non-H1
HA is achieved, the other segments could be taken from ******
or whatever.
Another introduction from swine or bird H1 to humans does not count.
We have seen one pandemic in the past 41 years, and three in the 1900s total. That makes the odds of a pandemic in any given year about 3-4%.
Unless something changes (and the widespread nature of H5N1 in poultry, as well as the repeated H9 cases in Hong Kong might count as a change), it might be another 20-30 years until the next pandemic.
And by your counting rules, since two of the last four pandemics (three out of five if you count 1977) were H1N1, the odds of a non-H1 pandemic are smallers that even that.
pandemics were often followed by subsequent reassortments
with the old viruses. We haven't seen this yet with ******.
Some are concerned that ****** could reasort with H5N1.
It's a new player who throws her genes into the game.
Those who were following H5N1 saw how it emerged
and then subsequently reassorted.
Also, just the increased amount of human infections
provides an increased opportunity for mutation and
reassortment.
Pandemics often have several waves, so far as we observed
they were cause by the same HA-type but we only have
data from few pandemics.
We now have a virus which also may circulate in swine and
birds with access to an inreased reservoir of flu-genes.
Tweet
Comment