summer wave in USA ?

[gsgs]

what do you consider the probability that more than 10 million
US-citizens will have had M**flu until 23.Sept.2009

[mixin]

Re: summer wave in USA ?

Since we've basically quit testing most all of the cases except the severe ones, how will we know which number is the correct one?

[HenryN]

Re: summer wave in USA ?

Since we've basically quit testing most all of the cases except the severe ones, how will we know which number is the correct one?

Exactly. There will probably be 10 million in the US by the end of this month.

[Snicklefritz]

Re: summer wave in USA ?

What's special about >10 million? Why that number? Do we have to wait until September 23rd to find out? I think there is already a 'summer wave'.

How many days did Noah's peers wait before they declared a flood?

[Laidback Al]

Re: summer wave in USA ?

. . . How many days did Noah's peers wait before they declared a flood?

I suspect that while Noah floated away, his peers were discussing whether they were at a level 5 or level 6 flood and whether there should be a flood severity index attached.

[gsgs]

Re: summer wave in USA ?

CDC keeps saying it's declining

http://www.cdc.gov/media/transcripts/2009/t090604.htm

ISDS doubts it

http://blogs.sciencemag.org/scienceinsider/2009/05/cdc-too-optimis.html

1918 infected 25M (pop=100M), but I couldn't find whether that's
for all of the waves (4 waves in USA) together or for each

5-20% infected per year with sasonal flu, 10%(geometrical) average
divide by 3 for 3 strains (H1,H3,B) gives ~10M

pandemic wave should be more


when the wave is over, they can do questionnaires or opinion polls
or serology to estimate how many had had it