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Source: http://www.canada.com/vancouversun/n...c-cb5f098d4071
Prepare for coming pandemic, study warns
Buy insurance and vaccines, study advises
Eric Beauchesne, Canwest News Service
Published: Tuesday, June 17, 2008
OTTAWA -- It pays to be prepared for a pandemic, and could prove costly not to be, according to a study released today that looked at the potential costs and benefits of companies readying themselves for such an outbreak.
It's not a question of whether one will occur but when, warned the study by Amin Mawani, an economist at the Schulich School of Business at York University.
"The probability of a pandemic occurring within the next five years is not trivial," states the report, which makes the business case for preparing for such an eventuality, from taking out pandemic insurance, to buying and stockpiling vaccine for employees.
"The impact of a pandemic on employee absenteeism and its associated effects on lost revenues and incomes are also likely to be very significant," it concludes. "Firms cannot afford to ignore such risks for competitive, as well as legal and fiduciary reasons."
That's even more the case if their competitors are preparing themselves, the author of the study said.
"If your competitors are doing it and you're not, their employees will be coming in to work and filling out orders when yours aren't and they will steal your customers," said Mawani.
"Well-prepared firms will have a unique window of opportunity during a pandemic to potentially increase market share at the expense of firms that have not prepared themselves," the report said.
While it may not pay for some companies to invest in measures to prepare, such as a firm whose employees do not interact with the public or who telecommute rather than come into the office or plant, Mawani suggested all companies should at least do a cost-benefit analysis.
"In general, most businesses would find it useful," he said.
"When I looked at the impact just from SARS, which wasn't anywhere as serious as an influenza pandemic, it boggled my mind how many hotels, airlines, restaurants really lost a lot of money," he said.
The 2003 SARS outbreak resulted in 15,000 people being quarantined, 375 becoming ill, and 44 dying from the illness, it noted. It also cost the Canadian economy $2 billion, reducing national economic output by three percentage points in the single quarter.
An influenza pandemic would be significantly more costly, the report said, citing one business "planning guide" that estimated such an outbreak could result in 58,000 deaths in Canada.
The study didn't look at whether companies are in fact preparing, but it appears that many aren't, Mawani said.
It may be that they are underestimating the probabilities of a pandemic occurring, or it may be that the lessons of the SARS epidemic have faded, he said.
"This is like a public service reminder to do your planning," he said, adding that unlike prior to the SARS outbreak, there are business solutions.
Two statistics from the public-health literature prompted Mawani to conduct the study -- one that the probability of an influenza pandemic occurring is three to 10 per cent a year, the other that such a pandemic can result in employee absenteeism of 30 to 40 per cent.
"I took it from there that there is a three- to 10-per-cent probability of a 30- to 40-per-cent employee absenteeism and thought 'wow,'"
The study reviewed the findings of the more widely studied macro-economic impacts, which also point to a large net benefit to an economy as a whole in being prepared.
That many Canadian companies may not be prepared, or preparing for a pandemic, however, is not surprising in light of another recent report.
The Canadian Medical Association Journal in a recent editorial warned that if a deadly epidemic were to hit Canada tomorrow, poultry would be better protected than people under federal laws.
A massive epidemic or pandemic "could kill tens, or hundreds of thousands of Canadians within weeks or months,'' it warned.
? The Vancouver Sun 2008
Prepare for coming pandemic, study warns
Buy insurance and vaccines, study advises
Eric Beauchesne, Canwest News Service
Published: Tuesday, June 17, 2008
OTTAWA -- It pays to be prepared for a pandemic, and could prove costly not to be, according to a study released today that looked at the potential costs and benefits of companies readying themselves for such an outbreak.
It's not a question of whether one will occur but when, warned the study by Amin Mawani, an economist at the Schulich School of Business at York University.
"The probability of a pandemic occurring within the next five years is not trivial," states the report, which makes the business case for preparing for such an eventuality, from taking out pandemic insurance, to buying and stockpiling vaccine for employees.
"The impact of a pandemic on employee absenteeism and its associated effects on lost revenues and incomes are also likely to be very significant," it concludes. "Firms cannot afford to ignore such risks for competitive, as well as legal and fiduciary reasons."
That's even more the case if their competitors are preparing themselves, the author of the study said.
"If your competitors are doing it and you're not, their employees will be coming in to work and filling out orders when yours aren't and they will steal your customers," said Mawani.
"Well-prepared firms will have a unique window of opportunity during a pandemic to potentially increase market share at the expense of firms that have not prepared themselves," the report said.
While it may not pay for some companies to invest in measures to prepare, such as a firm whose employees do not interact with the public or who telecommute rather than come into the office or plant, Mawani suggested all companies should at least do a cost-benefit analysis.
"In general, most businesses would find it useful," he said.
"When I looked at the impact just from SARS, which wasn't anywhere as serious as an influenza pandemic, it boggled my mind how many hotels, airlines, restaurants really lost a lot of money," he said.
The 2003 SARS outbreak resulted in 15,000 people being quarantined, 375 becoming ill, and 44 dying from the illness, it noted. It also cost the Canadian economy $2 billion, reducing national economic output by three percentage points in the single quarter.
An influenza pandemic would be significantly more costly, the report said, citing one business "planning guide" that estimated such an outbreak could result in 58,000 deaths in Canada.
The study didn't look at whether companies are in fact preparing, but it appears that many aren't, Mawani said.
It may be that they are underestimating the probabilities of a pandemic occurring, or it may be that the lessons of the SARS epidemic have faded, he said.
"This is like a public service reminder to do your planning," he said, adding that unlike prior to the SARS outbreak, there are business solutions.
Two statistics from the public-health literature prompted Mawani to conduct the study -- one that the probability of an influenza pandemic occurring is three to 10 per cent a year, the other that such a pandemic can result in employee absenteeism of 30 to 40 per cent.
"I took it from there that there is a three- to 10-per-cent probability of a 30- to 40-per-cent employee absenteeism and thought 'wow,'"
The study reviewed the findings of the more widely studied macro-economic impacts, which also point to a large net benefit to an economy as a whole in being prepared.
That many Canadian companies may not be prepared, or preparing for a pandemic, however, is not surprising in light of another recent report.
The Canadian Medical Association Journal in a recent editorial warned that if a deadly epidemic were to hit Canada tomorrow, poultry would be better protected than people under federal laws.
A massive epidemic or pandemic "could kill tens, or hundreds of thousands of Canadians within weeks or months,'' it warned.
? The Vancouver Sun 2008
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