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Source: http://blogs.computerworld.com/for_h...ategory_higher
April 9, 2008 - 12:29 P.M.
For hurricanes and pandemics, plan one category higher
Today's blog comes via a cautionary tale regarding Hurricane Humberto. Humberto, as you may recall, was the 2007 Hurricane That Came Out Of Nowhere.
Humberto started its life as a simple shower band crossing the lower peninsula of Florida. Unbeknownst to anyone, Humberto also crossed over the spring training facilities of the New York Yankees and several other major league baseball teams, whereupon it assimilated what it ingested and then, without warning, rapidly grew into a tropical storm and then a Category Two hurricane, all in less than eighteen hours. It wound up hitting near the Texas-Louisiana border.
This confounded everyone whose job it is to see these events coming. The best retrospective comments came from my good friend and emergency management director for Florida, Craig Fugate.
Craig told USA Today,
To be prepared, Fugate said his team always readies itself for a storm one category higher than what is predicted. He said forecasting intensity has come down to two basic factors: conditions that seem favorable to strengthening and a symmetrical look to the storm.
"If it looks like it's strengthening, it probably is," he said. "It's probably a layman's way of looking at it, but the computer models haven't improved."
I have lived that "plan one category higher" for some time. It shapes every disaster plan and COOP exercise I participate in. And it also comes from decades of going through hurricanes. In my youth, I went through (and cleaned up after) several hurricanes. I have been through a few tropical storms since. Only the grace and timing of God allowed me and my family to move from South Florida in mid-1991, and thus escape the wrath of Hurricane Andrew in September, 1992. My Miami home was completely destroyed by the storm.
As you may recall, Bill Proenza was director of the National Hurricane Center when he began criticizing the spending priorities of his superiors. Proenza complained specifically about the looming loss and lack of replacement for a weather satellite. Proenza was then reassigned to a mighty hurricane prediction post on the front lines in Ft. Worth, Texas.
Proenza would have been better served if he had directed his ire at the curious lack of maintenance for the string of weather buoys adorning the Atlantic coast and the Gulf of Mexico. Specifically, there is a disconcerting lack of buoys (working or otherwise) the closer you get to the northern Gulf coast.
It would be much easier to get accurate data -- and thus, more accurate forecasts -- if we had more buoys. It was a more immediate need and a more attainable goal.
Having access to that buoy data is essential for emergency managers to make final decisions about who to evacuate and whom to shelter in place; what areas need additional warnings and what additional preparations to take.
As a result, we have learned over the years that those who study data and make prognostications have gotten dang skippy at predicting landfall. But they absolutely suck at predicting intensity at landfall.
And that impacts those of us who have to make decisions based on that data and based on those advisories. When I took over as CIO of the Florida Department of Corrections in early 2001, I convened the IT disaster recovery team. What was our plan? I asked.
I was told that the full IT DR plan would kick in upon the threat of a Category Two storm hitting the Greater Tallahassee area. I was immediately reminded of the line from "Heartbreak Ridge" when Choozoo says during a planned ambush, "Sure does help knowing when and where you going to get hit, sir."
So I asked my team, "And what happens when a Cat One storm becomes Cat Two just prior to landfall?"
My question was met with silence, as fifteen pairs of eyes began admiring the acoustic tiles and industrial carpet of the conference room. Needless to say, the policy was immediately changed, and any hurricane hitting the Florida Big Bend area became the trigger for implementation of the IT DR plan, notification to the host company of our intent to activate (a $140K decision), and the evacuation of staff and their families to alternate facilities. It also meant that we began "leaning our men forward" if a tropical storm threatened the area.
Now let me do what I call a "whiplash segue" to influenza pandemics, and apply these lessons to pandemic planning.
The World Health Organization has established a color-coded system to declare the status of the world regarding an influenza pandemic. It is similar to the system used by the Department of Homeland Security, and it has to be Hell for the color-blind. Anyway, here you can see the Current WHO phase of pandemic alert. Note that we are currently at Phase Three, defined as No or very limited human-to-human transmission.
Over the past two years, we have seen and documented some significant "cluster cases" where humans have given bird flu to other humans. Fortunately, these "clusters" are usually limited to families living under the same roof, and usually families caring for some very, very sick loved ones in close physical proximity.
These "H2H clusters" have been located in China, Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, Turkey, Pakistan, Azerbajian, and did I mention Indonesia?
Just since April 1, the WHO and the Chinese government have confirmed two such "cluster" cases. One occurred in Pakistan last October and November. Another occurred in China last December. In Pakistan, a brother who culled chickens acquired H5N1, and three other brothers caught bird flu. The index case and the final case lived; the other two brothers died. While three of the cases were absolutely identified as positive for H5N1, the fourth brother (who was one of the dead) was never tested.
By the way, did you know a fifth Pakistani brother attended the funeral of one of his siblings and then flew home to Long Island? He called the local New York health department office upon his return home to report he might have been exposed to H5N1 bird flu, for which he should be lauded. He tested negative, but it is strong reinforcement of our interconnected world and the threats it can pose.
In China, a 24-year old man gave the virus to his father. As is the case so often with human H5N1 cases, the young died, while the older person survived.
If we were to number pandemic threat levels the same way we number software versions, I would say we were more like Phase 3.5. And if we assigned phases to different nations, I think a strong anecdotal case could be made for Phase Four today in Indonesia.
A more detailed explanation of my viewpoint can be found at my blogsite and the specific blog, Is the WHO Symphony Orchestra playing the overture to Phase Four?
Recently, Dr. Stuart Weiss, a bioterror and pandemic expert, spoke in Tallahassee. Dr. Weiss spoke of recent situations where the WHO almost raised the threat level from Three to Four. Weiss said one such event almost took place eight months ago. I can speculate about three such "near-misses," as do most "flubies." Dr. Weiss also spoke of the folly of basing a organization's preparedness and response solely on a raising of the threat level. If an organization waits until Phase Four to buy supplies, for example, he said there will be blood: No supplies will be available.
I can confirm this from a source I have, a former chair of the school of public health at a top Ivy League university who now holds a very prestigious position in Washington. He told me in 2006 that any organization that waits until a declaration of Phase Four to buy masks, gloves and hand sanitizer will be unlucky, as supplies of those items will disappear virtually overnight. Without masks, gloves and hand sanitizer, good luck to anyone who thinks they will get their data center and desktop support staffs to come to work during a pandemic.
However, so many organizations have tied their response into those WHO threat levels that any premature declaration of Phase Four might prompt an inappropriate and calamitous response.
The only way to resolve the situation is for you, dear IT Disaster Recovery and COOP planner, to begin making all your plans and preparations as if we were already one category higher. So if a Category Two hurricane heads your way this season, assume it will make landfall as a Three. And if we are at Phase Three pandemic alert status today, make your planning, education, preparedness and purchasing decisions as if we were already at Four.
Because in a home in Egypt, or Indonesia, or Pakistan, India, China, Vietnam, or elsewhere -- we may already be there.
April 9, 2008 - 12:29 P.M.
For hurricanes and pandemics, plan one category higher
Today's blog comes via a cautionary tale regarding Hurricane Humberto. Humberto, as you may recall, was the 2007 Hurricane That Came Out Of Nowhere.
Humberto started its life as a simple shower band crossing the lower peninsula of Florida. Unbeknownst to anyone, Humberto also crossed over the spring training facilities of the New York Yankees and several other major league baseball teams, whereupon it assimilated what it ingested and then, without warning, rapidly grew into a tropical storm and then a Category Two hurricane, all in less than eighteen hours. It wound up hitting near the Texas-Louisiana border.
This confounded everyone whose job it is to see these events coming. The best retrospective comments came from my good friend and emergency management director for Florida, Craig Fugate.
Craig told USA Today,
To be prepared, Fugate said his team always readies itself for a storm one category higher than what is predicted. He said forecasting intensity has come down to two basic factors: conditions that seem favorable to strengthening and a symmetrical look to the storm.
"If it looks like it's strengthening, it probably is," he said. "It's probably a layman's way of looking at it, but the computer models haven't improved."
I have lived that "plan one category higher" for some time. It shapes every disaster plan and COOP exercise I participate in. And it also comes from decades of going through hurricanes. In my youth, I went through (and cleaned up after) several hurricanes. I have been through a few tropical storms since. Only the grace and timing of God allowed me and my family to move from South Florida in mid-1991, and thus escape the wrath of Hurricane Andrew in September, 1992. My Miami home was completely destroyed by the storm.
As you may recall, Bill Proenza was director of the National Hurricane Center when he began criticizing the spending priorities of his superiors. Proenza complained specifically about the looming loss and lack of replacement for a weather satellite. Proenza was then reassigned to a mighty hurricane prediction post on the front lines in Ft. Worth, Texas.
Proenza would have been better served if he had directed his ire at the curious lack of maintenance for the string of weather buoys adorning the Atlantic coast and the Gulf of Mexico. Specifically, there is a disconcerting lack of buoys (working or otherwise) the closer you get to the northern Gulf coast.
It would be much easier to get accurate data -- and thus, more accurate forecasts -- if we had more buoys. It was a more immediate need and a more attainable goal.
Having access to that buoy data is essential for emergency managers to make final decisions about who to evacuate and whom to shelter in place; what areas need additional warnings and what additional preparations to take.
As a result, we have learned over the years that those who study data and make prognostications have gotten dang skippy at predicting landfall. But they absolutely suck at predicting intensity at landfall.
And that impacts those of us who have to make decisions based on that data and based on those advisories. When I took over as CIO of the Florida Department of Corrections in early 2001, I convened the IT disaster recovery team. What was our plan? I asked.
I was told that the full IT DR plan would kick in upon the threat of a Category Two storm hitting the Greater Tallahassee area. I was immediately reminded of the line from "Heartbreak Ridge" when Choozoo says during a planned ambush, "Sure does help knowing when and where you going to get hit, sir."
So I asked my team, "And what happens when a Cat One storm becomes Cat Two just prior to landfall?"
My question was met with silence, as fifteen pairs of eyes began admiring the acoustic tiles and industrial carpet of the conference room. Needless to say, the policy was immediately changed, and any hurricane hitting the Florida Big Bend area became the trigger for implementation of the IT DR plan, notification to the host company of our intent to activate (a $140K decision), and the evacuation of staff and their families to alternate facilities. It also meant that we began "leaning our men forward" if a tropical storm threatened the area.
Now let me do what I call a "whiplash segue" to influenza pandemics, and apply these lessons to pandemic planning.
The World Health Organization has established a color-coded system to declare the status of the world regarding an influenza pandemic. It is similar to the system used by the Department of Homeland Security, and it has to be Hell for the color-blind. Anyway, here you can see the Current WHO phase of pandemic alert. Note that we are currently at Phase Three, defined as No or very limited human-to-human transmission.
Over the past two years, we have seen and documented some significant "cluster cases" where humans have given bird flu to other humans. Fortunately, these "clusters" are usually limited to families living under the same roof, and usually families caring for some very, very sick loved ones in close physical proximity.
These "H2H clusters" have been located in China, Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, Turkey, Pakistan, Azerbajian, and did I mention Indonesia?
Just since April 1, the WHO and the Chinese government have confirmed two such "cluster" cases. One occurred in Pakistan last October and November. Another occurred in China last December. In Pakistan, a brother who culled chickens acquired H5N1, and three other brothers caught bird flu. The index case and the final case lived; the other two brothers died. While three of the cases were absolutely identified as positive for H5N1, the fourth brother (who was one of the dead) was never tested.
By the way, did you know a fifth Pakistani brother attended the funeral of one of his siblings and then flew home to Long Island? He called the local New York health department office upon his return home to report he might have been exposed to H5N1 bird flu, for which he should be lauded. He tested negative, but it is strong reinforcement of our interconnected world and the threats it can pose.
In China, a 24-year old man gave the virus to his father. As is the case so often with human H5N1 cases, the young died, while the older person survived.
If we were to number pandemic threat levels the same way we number software versions, I would say we were more like Phase 3.5. And if we assigned phases to different nations, I think a strong anecdotal case could be made for Phase Four today in Indonesia.
A more detailed explanation of my viewpoint can be found at my blogsite and the specific blog, Is the WHO Symphony Orchestra playing the overture to Phase Four?
Recently, Dr. Stuart Weiss, a bioterror and pandemic expert, spoke in Tallahassee. Dr. Weiss spoke of recent situations where the WHO almost raised the threat level from Three to Four. Weiss said one such event almost took place eight months ago. I can speculate about three such "near-misses," as do most "flubies." Dr. Weiss also spoke of the folly of basing a organization's preparedness and response solely on a raising of the threat level. If an organization waits until Phase Four to buy supplies, for example, he said there will be blood: No supplies will be available.
I can confirm this from a source I have, a former chair of the school of public health at a top Ivy League university who now holds a very prestigious position in Washington. He told me in 2006 that any organization that waits until a declaration of Phase Four to buy masks, gloves and hand sanitizer will be unlucky, as supplies of those items will disappear virtually overnight. Without masks, gloves and hand sanitizer, good luck to anyone who thinks they will get their data center and desktop support staffs to come to work during a pandemic.
However, so many organizations have tied their response into those WHO threat levels that any premature declaration of Phase Four might prompt an inappropriate and calamitous response.
The only way to resolve the situation is for you, dear IT Disaster Recovery and COOP planner, to begin making all your plans and preparations as if we were already one category higher. So if a Category Two hurricane heads your way this season, assume it will make landfall as a Three. And if we are at Phase Three pandemic alert status today, make your planning, education, preparedness and purchasing decisions as if we were already at Four.
Because in a home in Egypt, or Indonesia, or Pakistan, India, China, Vietnam, or elsewhere -- we may already be there.
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