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CPI and PPI data will be released in September Organization: CPI or low-level operation PPI continues to rise
09:51, October 12, 2021 |
People's Daily Online, Beijing, October 12 (Reporter Yang Xi) The National Bureau of Statistics will release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) monthly report and the Industrial Producer Price Index (PPI) monthly report for September 2021 on the 13th. Recently, many institutions have issued macro-research reports, forecasting CPI and PPI in September, and forecasting the trend in the fourth quarter.
The average of agency forecasts shows that the CPI in September may rise 0.9% year-on-year, and the PPI may rise 10% year-on-year. Data previously released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that in August 2021, CPI rose 0.8% year-on-year, and PPI rose 9.5% year-on-year. Looking forward to the fourth quarter, institutions generally believe that the overall CPI will remain moderate, and the PPI may continue to fluctuate at a high level.
September forecast: CPI running low, PPI continues to rise
The agency predicts that CPI and PPI will increase year-on-year in September. People's Daily Online by Yang Xi
"Since September, the domestic coordinated epidemic prevention and control and socio-economic development work has been steadily advanced. The spread of this round of the epidemic has basically been controlled, short-term factors affecting economic recovery have gradually disappeared, and the national economy has continued to recover steadily. From a price perspective, food prices The month-on-month decline, service industry prices are stable, and the CPI growth rate is expected to remain at 0.5% in September; the price of coal and steel continues to rise, and the PPI hits a new high during the year. The PPI growth rate is expected to rise to 10.2%. "Analysis of a research report released by the Peking University National Economic Research Center.
The research report issued by China Everbright Securities predicts that the CPI will fall to 0.7% in September year-on-year. In terms of food, the seasonal increase in fresh vegetable prices has ended, and the prices of pork and fresh fruits continue to fall; in non-food, the activity of the travel service industry has picked up significantly due to the double-holiday holiday, and service prices are expected to return to positive in September. In terms of PPI, the PPI is expected to rise to 10.3% year-on-year in September, and the supply contraction will lead to a further increase in the PPI month-on-month increase. Affected by the shortage of electricity and coal and the policy of dual control of energy consumption, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong and other provinces have curtailed power and production, affecting the production of bulk commodities such as black, non-ferrous metals, and building materials. At the same time, energy shortages have also led to significant increases in coal and crude oil prices.
According to the analysis of the research report issued by Huatai Securities, in September, many places across the country took measures to limit production and electricity, and supply-side factors pushed up the prices of raw materials. At the same time, the prices of rebar, copper, aluminum and plastics also returned to the upward trend. It is expected that the PPI will be compared to September The growth rate may be significantly higher than in August, and the year-on-year growth rate may surge to around 11%. In terms of CPI, pork prices fell slightly from the previous month, but the prices of fresh vegetables and fruits, transportation, entertainment, etc. may rise due to the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, and the year-on-year growth rate of CPI may rise to 1.3%.
Fourth quarter outlook: CPI moderately upward, PPI fluctuates at high levels
Looking forward to the fourth quarter, the research report released by the Caixin International Economic Research Institute predicts that CPI will rise moderately and PPI will fluctuate at a high level. In terms of CPI, the restoration of the service industry and price transmission will drive the recovery of the CPI center. However, the disturbance of the epidemic, the slow recovery of consumption, and the drag of pork still exist. The overall CPI inflation in the fourth quarter is moderate, and the center is expected to be in the "1" era for the whole year. In terms of PPI, supply constraints such as environmental protection and production restrictions will continue to support new price increases. The probability of high PPI fluctuations in the fourth quarter is relatively high. However, considering the marginal slowdown of domestic economic momentum and the rapid decline of carryover factors, it is expected that PPI will be slightly at the end of the year. Falling back, the center of the year is in the "7" era.
According to the analysis of the research report released by China International Finance Securities, in terms of CPI, the core CPI is expected to have limited upside space based on consumption performance, and the drag of pork prices on the food sub-item is expected to alleviate, so the CPI may fluctuate within the range. In terms of PPI, from the perspective of the third quarter, the logic supporting the year-on-year growth rate of PPI has shifted from internationally priced commodities to domestically priced commodities; The supply and demand logic is dominated, and the PPI is expected to fall from its high level in the fourth quarter.
"The recent 21st meeting of the Central Committee for Comprehensive Deepening Reform emphasized the need to improve the strategic reserve market adjustment mechanism and strengthen the bulk commodity reserve and adjustment capabilities. The State Council on September 22 again emphasized the need to use market-based methods to stabilize the bulk. Commodity prices. Under this background, the year-on-year increase in PPI is expected to peak in the fourth quarter, and it will continue at a high level for a period of time in the short term." Pay attention to the increase in labor costs and service prices brought about by the gradual recovery of domestic demand after the epidemic has been effectively controlled."
(Editor in charge: Qiao Yeqiong, Lu Qian)
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