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Ray Dalio, famed American investor and Bridgewater Associates Founder: "'s just like the Great Depression...It will be a new world order." + M. El-Erian from Allianz

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  • Ray Dalio, famed American investor and Bridgewater Associates Founder: "'s just like the Great Depression...It will be a new world order." + M. El-Erian from Allianz
    Bloomberg Invest Talks: A Conversation with Ray Dalio
    36,597 views •Apr 15, 2020

    “A much bigger event than the 2008 financial crisis and it is most comparable to the 1930-45 period of time.”
    “It will be a new world order. The world won’t resemble the world that we’re used to – the world is going to change in various ways.”
    “How wealth will change will be very big and different.”
    “We have to think, though, about the consequences of producing all that money and credit…it’s just like the Great Depression…You have to operate in a way to save important things and you only impose a certain amount of suffering on people that they can bear otherwise you’ll have a revolution and you won’t have productivity.”
    “It will be a big shift in wealth. It will be a big shift in where things go.”
    “I see a very differentiated world…We operated in a world where we were globally connected…That world won’t happen again..."

    He also thinks that emerging countries with a lot of debt are in for a bad time similar to the 1980-1990 debt crisis.
    Last edited by sharon sanders; May 17, 2020, 10:58 PM. Reason: fixed weird font
    Never forget Excalibur.
    “‘i love myself.’ the quietest. simplest. most powerful. revolution ever.” ---- nayyirah waheed
    Avatar: Franz Marc, Liegender Hund im Schnee 1911 (My posts are not intended as advice or professional assessments of any kind.)

  • #2
    Never forget Excalibur.
    “‘i love myself.’ the quietest. simplest. most powerful. revolution ever.” ---- nayyirah waheed
    Avatar: Franz Marc, Liegender Hund im Schnee 1911 (My posts are not intended as advice or professional assessments of any kind.)


    • #3
      I started a thread last year after the federal reserve stepped into the "repo" market to support the banking system. It was a huge indicator of a problem. link

      Then we had this pandemic start. Frankly, so much bad news that I didn't want to crash the team here with a piling on of more bad news by adding more to that thread. But really...we are in a "situation" for sure.

      We did a few weeks of "econ prep" promotion. link

      It is a big lie that the economy will snap back. There will not be any "V" shaped recovery. There is no historical precedent that is well documented for this new reality. Certainly nothing I have seen in my life - and I have been through a bunch of boom and bust cycles.

      All everyone can do is find out where the food banks are, sign up for various unemployment/assistance programs, contact auto and home lenders to make a deal, find a gig job. One growth area is deliveries, for instance.

      This is going to be stressful. Do something everyday to lessen the stress. Actually schedule it in. I take time out to play with my dogs. Dog breaks. I have one dog that is three years old. She still gets excited about everything. So cute. My older dog likes to cuddle. I think they lower my blood pressure.

      So sorry that this is happening to everyone.

      You can count on FluTrackers to tell you the truth.

      We are not bought.

      We are Independent Media.


      • #4
        El-Erian does not have a history of alarmism. Very well known.

        El-Erian: We will have the worst recession since the Great Depression


        • #5
          "It will make 2008-2009 look like a flesh wound, which is a huge statement if you all remember how bad that is."
          On the Fed buying high yield he says that is "revolutionary."
          "We're going to come out of this with a massive entanglement of both the Fed and the government in private sector activity and it's a spaghetti bowl. This isn't something that is done according to principle..."
          At the end he appears to me to think a global depression might still be avoided, but is concerned that things will be handled as badly as during the 2008-2009 crisis with the current stratification of wealth being maintained or worsened.

          Regarding the strange repo market machinations ,here's an article that discusses that:

          "“The general theme that caused the repo market volatility has been almost a decade in the making,” says Jon Hill, vice president on the U.S. Rates Strategy team at BMO Capital Markets.

          Fed researchers surveyed major financial institutions to determine what level of reserves would be enough to be considered “ample,” but nobody knew for sure just how many reserves needed to stay in the system.

          All in all, the Fed took about a trillion dollars out of the system. The repo market’s dysfunction showed that officials might’ve taken the process too far.

          I don’t believe for a second that you can take nearly a trillion dollars out of the system and something’s not going to go bump in the night,” says Greg McBride, CFA, Bankrate chief financial analyst. “What we saw in the repo market was a direct result of that.”
          Still trying to normalize 2008-2009 bailout actions I think. I don't know what is ahead, but I suspect there is going to be unrest here and in China - maybe worse in China.

          U.S. Unemployment Situation Much Worse than April BLS Report
          By the Curmudgeon
          While no one knows the real unemployment rate in China (government statistics cannot be trusted and the unemployment numbers only include full time urban residents- not migrant workers), we can say with confidence that its export led economy will get hit especially hard by the global pandemic. The sharp contraction in global demand poses considerable risks for prolonging labor market weakness, which will hold back China’s economic recovery in the second half of the year.

          Economists from UBS and Société Générale think that as many as 80 million China residents might have been out of work in March (and more in April). That is nearly 20% of the urban workforce. Few of the unemployed receive any help from the government, which greatly exacerbates the plight of those without a job in China. That implies domestic demand will crater, if it hasn’t done so already?..
          Never forget Excalibur.
          “‘i love myself.’ the quietest. simplest. most powerful. revolution ever.” ---- nayyirah waheed
          Avatar: Franz Marc, Liegender Hund im Schnee 1911 (My posts are not intended as advice or professional assessments of any kind.)


          • #6
            So the unrest is here already. Just as in LA, the looting and vandalism moved from Seattle's downtown to the suburbs.

            Never forget Excalibur.
            “‘i love myself.’ the quietest. simplest. most powerful. revolution ever.” ---- nayyirah waheed
            Avatar: Franz Marc, Liegender Hund im Schnee 1911 (My posts are not intended as advice or professional assessments of any kind.)


            • #7

              The financial industry are the main entities that receive "bailouts" and other positive financial reinforcement from the federal government. Very little "trickles" down to main street where we all live. Of course people are frustrated. Look at these recent headlines:

              Hertz paid top executives $16 million in bonuses ahead of its bankruptcy filing



              US billionaires boost collective wealth by $406 billion as markets rebound in the coronavirus pandemic, report finds



              Great Depression-Like Jobless Rate Seen for U.S.



              • #8

                May sees biggest jobs increase ever of 2.5 million as economy starts to recover from coronavirus

                PUBLISHED FRI, JUN 5 20208:31 AM EDT
                UPDATED 12 MIN AGO


                The May gain was by far the biggest one-month jobs surge in U.S. history since at least 1939. The only previous month to register more than a million jobs was September 1983, at 1.1 million.



                If the number above is correct it is a small advance against the 43 million in unemployment claims since the pandemic started. Only 40 million more jobs to add.


                • #9

                  This is the comments by the Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner about their numbers. Never use the business media opinions. Go to the original documents for data:

                  Commissioner's Statement on the Employment Situation

                  Transmission of material in this statement is embargoed until 8:30 a.m. (ET) June 5, 2020.
                  Statement of William W. Beach Commissioner Bureau of Labor Statistics
                  Friday, June 5, 2020

                  Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 2.5 million in May, and the unemployment rate declined by 1.4 percentage points to 13.3 percent. These improvements in the labor market reflected a limited resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed in March and April due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to contain it.

                  In May, employment rose in several major industry sectors, with the largest gains in leisure and hospitality, construction, education and health services, and retail trade. By contrast, employment in government continued to decline sharply.

                  To put the May employment gain of 2.5 million in context, substantial job losses related to the coronavirus pandemic started in March, as payroll employment declined by 1.4 million, as revised. Job losses deepened considerably in April, as nonfarm employment plummeted by an additional 20.7 million, as revised. At 132.9 million in May, total nonfarm employment is nearly 20 million (or 13 percent) lower than in February, before the pandemic crisis unfolded in many parts of the United States. Furthermore, although unemployment fell in May, the unemployment rate and the number of unemployed people are up by 9.8 percentage points and 15.2 million, respectively, since February. The response rate for the household survey continued to be adversely affected by pandemic-related issues. The response rate for the establishment survey was slightly below normal for May.

                  Changes made to the estimation methods for the establishment survey in April to better account for temporary or permanent business closures were kept in place for May. In addition, after further research, BLS extended these changes back to March, which accounted for a portion of the revision to March data. The impacts of the pandemic on the household and payroll surveys are detailed in the May Employment Situation news release and accompanying materials (available on the BLS website at Importantly, for both surveys, in May we were still able to obtain estimates that meet BLS standards for accuracy and reliability. Taking a closer look at the May payroll data, within the leisure and hospitality industry, food services and drinking places added 1.4 million jobs, after losing 5.4 million jobs in April and 633,000 jobs in March. In contrast, employment continued to decline in the accommodation industry in May (-148,000) and has fallen by 1.1 million over the past 3 months. In May, construction employment increased by 464,000, recouping about half of the decline in April (-995,000). Job gains occurred among all the component industries in May. Notable job growth occurred in specialty trade contractors (+325,000), with gains about equally split between the residential and nonresidential components. Construction of buildings added 105,000 jobs.

                  Employment increased by 424,000 in education and health services in May, after a decrease of 2.6 million in April. Health care employment rose by 312,000, with increases in offices of dentists (+245,000), offices of other health practitioners (+73,000), and offices of physicians (+51,000). Elsewhere in health care, job losses continued in nursing and residential care facilities (-37,000) and in hospitals (-27,000). Employment in social assistance increased by 78,000 over the month, reflecting gains in child day care services (+44,000) and individual and family services (+29,000). Employment in private education rose by 33,000 over the month.

                  Employment in retail trade rose by 368,000 in May, following a loss of 2.3 million in the prior month. Employment rose in several retail industries in May, including clothing stores (+95,000), automobile dealers (+85,000), general merchandise stores (+84,000), building material and garden supply stores (+56,000), and miscellaneous store retailers (+55,000). By contrast, employment declined in electronics and appliance stores (-95,000); auto parts, accessories, and tire stores (-36,000); and health and personal care stores (-22,000).

                  In May, employment in the other services industry increased by 272,000, after declining by 1.3 million in April. Two-thirds of the over-the-month job gain occurred in personal and laundry services (+182,000).

                  Manufacturing employment rose by 225,000 in May, following a decline of 1.3 million in April. The job gains in May were about equally split between the durable and nondurable goods components. Within durable goods, employment increased in motor vehicles and parts (+28,000), fabricated metal products (+25,000), and machinery (+23,000). Within nondurable goods, job gains occurred in plastics and rubber products (+30,000), food manufacturing (+25,000), and printing and related support activities (+16,000).

                  Professional and business services added 127,000 jobs in May, after losing 2.2 million jobs in April. Just over half of the job gain in May occurred in services to buildings and dwellings (+68,000). Additionally, employment increased in temporary help services (+39,000). By contrast, job losses continued in management of companies and enterprises (-22,000) and computer systems design (-13,000).

                  Over the month, employment in financial activities rose by 33,000, following a decline of 264,000 in April. In May, most of the job gain occurred in real estate and rental and leasing (+24,000). Wholesale trade employment increased by 21,000 in May, with the nondurable goods component adding 13,000 jobs.

                  Wholesale trade employment declined by 383,000 in April.

                  Government employment continued to fall over the month, as a decline of 585,000 in May followed a decrease of 963,000 in April. The bulk of the employment declines occurred in local government, which lost 487,000 jobs in May and 797,000 jobs in April. Local government employment declines over the 2 months mainly reflected school closures. Employment in state government was down by 84,000 in May, particularly in state education (-63,000).

                  Employment in information fell by 38,000 in May. The industry shed 272,000 jobs in April.

                  Mining also continued to lose jobs in May (-20,000), mostly in support activities for mining (-16,000). Mining employment has declined by 77,000 over the past 3 months.

                  Employment in transportation and warehousing fell by 19,000 in May, after declining by 553,000 in April. Employment in air transportation fell sharply in May (-50,000), following a loss of 79,000 in the prior month. In May, job gains occurred in couriers and messengers (+12,000) and transit and ground passenger transportation (+10,000).

                  Average weekly hours for all private-sector workers showed an increase of 0.5 hour in May. There were notable increases in the average workweek for leisure and hospitality (+1.5 hours), construction (+1.0 hour), manufacturing (+0.8 hour), and retail trade (+0.8 hour).

                  One should use caution when interpreting changes in the workweek at the total private nonfarm level. While employees in most industries saw an increase in their workweeks in May, large employment changes in industries with shorter-than-average workweeks can complicate monthly comparisons of the average weekly hours figures.

                  Similarly, our estimates of average hourly earnings for May must be interpreted with caution. Average hourly earnings of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls declined by 29 cents in May to $29.75, following a gain of $1.35 in April. The increase in average hourly earnings in April largely reflects the disproportionate number of lower-paid workers who went off payrolls, which put upward pressure on the total private average hourly earnings estimate. In May, some of these workers returned to payrolls, which put downward pressure on average hourly earnings, though the effect is more muted given the smaller magnitude of the employment change. The large changes in employment in recent months make it difficult to discern longer- term trends in the hours and earnings measures.

                  Turning to the labor market indicators from the household survey, the unemployment rate declined by 1.4 percentage points to 13.3 percent in May. This follows a record-high increase of 10.3 percentage points in April. The number of unemployed people decreased by 2.1 million in May, after increasing by 15.9 million in April.

                  The decrease in unemployment in May was driven by a decline among people on temporary layoff (-2.7 million). The decline was offset slightly by increases in the number of job losers not on temporary layoff, especially permanent job losers, which rose by 295,000 to 2.3 million. The number of new entrants to unemployment rose slightly in May, to 536,000, essentially returning to its March level.

                  The unemployment rate fell in May for adult men (11.6 percent), adult women (13.9 percent), Whites (12.4 percent), and Hispanics (17.6 percent). The rates for teenagers (29.9 percent), Blacks (16.8 percent), and Asians (15.0 percent) changed little over the month.

                  Among the unemployed, the number of people searching for work for less than 5 weeks declined by 10.4 million to 3.9 million in May. These individuals made up 18.5 percent of the unemployed in May. The number of unemployed people who were jobless 5 to 14 weeks more than doubled, increasing by 7.8 million to 14.8 million, and accounted for 70.8 percent of the unemployed in May. The number of people searching for work for 27 weeks or more rose to 1.2 million, offsetting a decline in April.

                  The labor force participation rate increased by 0.6 percentage point in May to 60.8 percent, following a decline of 2.5 percentage points in April. Total employment, as measured by the household survey, rose by 3.8 million to 137.2 million in May, following a large decline in April (-22.4 million). The employment-population ratio increased by 1.5 percentage points to 52.8 percent in May. This followed a decline of 8.7 percentage points in April.

                  The number of people who usually work full time rose by 2.2 million over the month to 116.5 million, and the number who usually work part time increased by 1.6 million to 20.7 million. Both these measures had declined sharply in April. Part-time workers accounted for about two-fifths of the over-the-month employment growth.

                  In May, the number of people at work part time for economic reasons (also referred to as involuntary part-time workers) changed little at 10.6 million, after nearly doubling in April. The number of workers affected by this type of underemployment is up by 6.3 million since February of this year.

                  The number of people not in the labor force who currently want a job declined by 954,000 to 9.0 million in May. This followed a large increase in April (+4.4 million). While down from April, the presence of a large number of individuals who indicate that they want a job but were not actively looking for one reflects the ongoing impact of the pandemic on the job market. Mandatory business closures, stay-at-home orders, and fear of the coronavirus illness likely kept many individuals from engaging in labor market activity.

                  Among those who were not in the labor force in May but wanted a job, 2.4 million were considered marginally attached to the labor force, little changed over the month. (People who are marginally attached to the labor force had not looked for work in the 4 weeks prior to the survey but wanted a job, were available for work, and had looked for a job within the last 12 months.) Discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached who believed no jobs were available for them, numbered 662,000 in May, also little changed over the month.

                  There continued to be a large number of workers who were classified as employed but absent from work for the entire reference week. As in March and April, special instructions sent to household survey interviewers called for employed people absent from work due to coronavirus-related business closures to be classified as unemployed on temporary layoff. However, not all such workers were so classified in May, despite additional training given to household survey interviewers. BLS and the Census Bureau continue to investigate this issue, and we're taking additional steps to address the problem.

                  As is our usual practice, no ad hoc actions were taken to reassign survey responses; the data were accepted as recorded. If the workers who were recorded as employed but absent from work due to "other reasons" (over and above the number absent for other reasons in a typical May) had been classified as unemployed on temporary layoff, the overall unemployment rate would have been about 3 percentage points higher than reported (on a not seasonally adjusted basis). Additional information is available online at covid19-faq-may-2020.pdf.

                  Summarizing the labor market developments in May, nonfarm payroll employment rose by 2.5 million, and the unemployment rate declined to 13.3 percent.



                  • #10
                    So the above report says that nonfarm payroll rose by 2.5 million for an unemployment rate of 13.3%. If they had counted the "absent from work due to other reasons" people in the layoff group the unemployment rate would have been 16.3%.

                    For me it doesn't matter. 13.3% is hardly better than 16.3%. They are both high. I know there is a lot of political based arguing about this. The reality is that a lot of people are still out of work and as the economy recovers and adjusts to the situation we really do not know what is going to happen. In my opinion economies do not turn on a dime. It will take time to build back up. The best case scenario is that we have seen the bottom and gradually this year the economic situation will improve. With approximately 40 million unemployment claims...there needs to be a lot of hiring done to get back where we were.

                    Please remember that the shadow banking system failed in September 2019. link Now we have the COVID-19 pandemic on top of this. I am being very cautious. I am only spending money on necessary items. With my stimulus check I paid down a car loan.

                    I just makes me sick how many media make everything so political. This hurts real people because at the start of the conversation 1/2 of the population turns off. People don't know who to believe so they believe the media who has their political viewpoint - whether that media is correct or not.

                    For sure - stopping the economy on purpose is a terrific shock. There are no reference guides for this. If anyone tells you they know what is going to happen - they are lying and probably trying to sell something.


                    • #11
                      Some employers are keeping people "employed" via funding from the CARES act.
                      I heard one small employer say he was doing this, but was worried that he wouldn't be able to save his business and its jobs in the long run. It's really tragic to walk down mainstreets in small towns that were finally springing back to life after the 2008 debacle to see them looking like ghost towns again.

                      The CARES Act Sent You a $1,200 Check but Gave Millionaires and Billionaires Far More
                      The stimulus checks were meant to get average Americans through the lockdown, but those $1,200 payouts were small change compared with the billions in tax breaks the CARES Act handed out to the country’s wealthiest.
                      by Allan Sloan
                      June 8, 5 a.m. EDT
                      Never forget Excalibur.
                      “‘i love myself.’ the quietest. simplest. most powerful. revolution ever.” ---- nayyirah waheed
                      Avatar: Franz Marc, Liegender Hund im Schnee 1911 (My posts are not intended as advice or professional assessments of any kind.)


                      • #12
                        Found this in UPS tracking for a package.

                        Civil unrest has delayed your package in transit. Delivery will be rescheduled. Check back for updates.

                        June 05 2020 08:00:00
                        Never forget Excalibur.
                        “‘i love myself.’ the quietest. simplest. most powerful. revolution ever.” ---- nayyirah waheed
                        Avatar: Franz Marc, Liegender Hund im Schnee 1911 (My posts are not intended as advice or professional assessments of any kind.)


                        • #13
                          The U.S. Is Not Headed Toward a New Great DepressionMay 01, 2020

                          We think at least part of the answer is the extreme intensity of the coronavirus shock. The depth and speed of output contraction threatens to influence perceptions and risk assessment in other dimensions of this shock, such as the structural legacy (the shape of the recovery) and the risks of structural regime break.

                          While these fears are understandable, the analytical errors resulting from them could have significant consequences in terms of setting false expectations and encouraging inappropriate plans. A few principles of intellectual discipline may help leaders avoid these analytical traps:
                          Dalio might be softening his position. (At least I would say lost decade for the stock market is not the same as another Great Depression.)
                          The stock market could be on the verge of a 'lost decade,' Ray Dalio's Bridgewater warns
                          Matthew Fox Jun. 18, 2020, 09:15 PM
                          • Ray Dalio's Bridgewater Associates said in a note on Tuesday that the stock market could be on the verge of a "lost decade" for investors, Bloomberg reported on Thursday.
                          • A "lost decade" for stocks would reverse a years-long trend of strong growth for corporate earnings as globalization has already peaked, Bridgewater said.
                          • The firm said the COVID-19 pandemic would harm companies. "Left with lower levels of profits and cash shortfalls, companies are likely to come out on the other side of the coronavirus more indebted," the note said, according to Bloomberg.
                          • Bridgewater, the largest hedge fund in the world, recently suffered a 15% slump in assets amid the COVID-19-induced market sell-off.
                          • Visit Business Insider's homepage for more stories.
                          Never forget Excalibur.
                          “‘i love myself.’ the quietest. simplest. most powerful. revolution ever.” ---- nayyirah waheed
                          Avatar: Franz Marc, Liegender Hund im Schnee 1911 (My posts are not intended as advice or professional assessments of any kind.)


                          • #14
                            Falling Upward: The Surprising Survival of Larry Summers
                            The surprising survival of a rebranded Larry Summers, who once again is counseling a Democratic presidential candidate
                            by Robert Kuttner
                            July 13, 2020

                            How Harvard Lost Russia

                            The best and brightest of America's premier university came to Moscow in the 1990s to teach Russians how to be capitalists. This is the inside story of how their efforts led to scandal and disgrace.Since being named president of Harvard University in 2001, former U.S. Treasury secretary Lawrence Summers has sparked a series of controversies that have grabbed headlines. Summers incurred the wrath of African-Americans when he belittled the work of controversial religion professor Cornel West (who left for Princeton University); last year he infuriated faculty and students alike when he seemed to disparage the innate scientific abilities of women at a Massachusetts economic conference, igniting a national uproar that nearly cost him his job...
                            Never forget Excalibur.
                            “‘i love myself.’ the quietest. simplest. most powerful. revolution ever.” ---- nayyirah waheed
                            Avatar: Franz Marc, Liegender Hund im Schnee 1911 (My posts are not intended as advice or professional assessments of any kind.)