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What Caused the 1929 Stock Market Crash?

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  • What Caused the 1929 Stock Market Crash?

    I had never heard exactly what caused it; only that it led to the Depression. I found this overview to be really easy to understand. It's a little long, so here's the author's conclusion:

    Conclusions and Lessons
    Although no consensus has been reached on the causes of the 1929 stock market crash, the evidence cited above suggests that it may have been that the fear of speculation helped push the stock market to the brink of collapse. It is possible that Hoover's aggressive campaign against speculation, helped by the overpriced public utilities hit by the Massachusetts Public Utility Commission decision and statements and the vulnerable margin investors, triggered the October selling panic and the consequences that followed.

    An important first event may have been Lord Snowden's reference to the speculative orgy in America. The resulting decline in stock prices weakened margin positions. When several governmental bodies indicated that public utilities in the future were not going to be able to justify their market prices, the decreases in utility stock prices resulted in margin positions being further weakened resulting in general selling. At some stage, the selling panic started and the crash resulted.

    What can we learn from the 1929 crash? There are many lessons, but a handful seem to be most applicable to today's stock market.

    # There is a delicate balance between optimism and pessimism regarding the stock market. Statements and actions by government officials can affect the sensitivity of stock prices to events. Call a market overpriced often enough, and investors may begin to believe it.

    # The fact that stocks can lose 40% of their value in a month and 90% over three years suggests the desirability of diversification (including assets other than stocks). Remember, some investors lose all of their investment when the market falls 40%.

    # A levered investment portfolio amplifies the swings of the stock market. Some investment securities have leverage built into them (e.g., stocks of highly levered firms, options, and stock index futures).

    # A series of presumably undramatic events may establish a setting for a wide price decline.

    # A segment of the market can experience bad news and a price decline that infects the broader market. In 1929, it seems to have been public utilities. In 2000, high technology firms were candidates.

    # Interpreting events and assigning blame is unreliable if there has not been an adequate passage of time and opportunity for reflection and analysis ? and is difficult even with decades of hindsight.

    # It is difficult to predict a major market turn with any degree of reliability. It is impressive that in September 1929, Roger Babson predicted the collapse of the stock market, but he had been predicting a collapse for many years. Also, even Babson recommended diversification and was against complete liquidation of stock investments (Financial Chronicle, September 7, 1929, p. 1505).

    # Even a market that is not excessively high can collapse. Both market psychology and the underlying economics are relevant.

    The salvage of human life ought to be placed above barter and exchange ~ Louis Harris, 1918
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