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Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific 2007
Bright outlook for this region....unless there is a pandemic, one of 6 possible "downside" risks. Mention of possible H2H "contagion" existing in region.
Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific 2007 - United Nations
Outlook for 2007 – continuing dynamism
For developing economies in the Asia-Pacific region, economic growth is projected at 7.4% in 2007, slower than in 2006. The external environment is expected to be less favourable, mainly due to the slowing United States economy. A moderate decline in global electronics demand in 2007 may dampen the Asia-Pacific region’s
prospects. And the easing of commodity prices, including that of oil, comes as a mixed blessing.
prospects. And the easing of commodity prices, including that of oil, comes as a mixed blessing.
snip
"Downside risks not to be ignored
The growth forecast of Asia-Pacific economies in 2007 is rather robust but the increased level of vulnerability
observed in some of the major economies over the last 12 months suggests that the baseline forecast will be
increasingly tilted towards the downside risks. Six downside risks merit attention:
• An oil price shock
• An abrupt cooling of housing markets in the United States
• A disorderly unwinding of global imbalances
• A reversal of the sustainability of the Japanese economic recovery
• Economic “overheating” in China
• An avian flu pandemic
observed in some of the major economies over the last 12 months suggests that the baseline forecast will be
increasingly tilted towards the downside risks. Six downside risks merit attention:
• An oil price shock
• An abrupt cooling of housing markets in the United States
• A disorderly unwinding of global imbalances
• A reversal of the sustainability of the Japanese economic recovery
• Economic “overheating” in China
• An avian flu pandemic
....
An avian flu pandemic.
A full-blown pandemic could generate significant economic and social costs in the region (ESCAP, 2006b). The structure of the poultry industry in the region, consisting of many small-scale operations, makes the region more vulnerable to the disease. The disease has spread significantly during 2006 and cases of human-to-human contagion are suspected in some countries, such as Indonesia.
A full-blown pandemic could generate significant economic and social costs in the region (ESCAP, 2006b). The structure of the poultry industry in the region, consisting of many small-scale operations, makes the region more vulnerable to the disease. The disease has spread significantly during 2006 and cases of human-to-human contagion are suspected in some countries, such as Indonesia.