Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Discussion thread VII - COVID-19: Endemic Stage

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • #16
    Fall in coronavirus infections in England may have stalled at high level - REACT

    by Justine Alford
    26 January 2022
    ...
    Of those who reported whether they had a history of COVID-19, almost two-thirds (64.6%) of infections were in people who reported confirmed prior COVID-19. However these results are based on self-reported data and therefore it’s uncertain what proportion of these are reinfections or recent infections picked up due to the sensitivity of PCR testing.

    Professor Paul Elliott, director of the REACT programme from Imperial’s School of Public Health, said: “There is good news in our data in that infections had been rapidly dropping during January, but they are still extremely high and may have recently stalled at a very high prevalence.

    “Of particular concern is that there is rapidly increasing prevalence among children now they are back at school and, compared with December, prevalence in older people aged 65+ has increased seven- to 12-fold, which may lead to increased hospitalisations.

    “It’s therefore vital that we continue to monitor the situation closely to understand the impact of the Omicron variant, which now makes up almost all infections in the country.”
    ...
    Access the preprint report here, Post-peak dynamics of a national Omicron SARS-CoV-2 epidemic during January 2022
    ...
    "Safety and security don't just happen, they are the result of collective consensus and public investment. We owe our children, the most vulnerable citizens in our society, a life free of violence and fear."
    -Nelson Mandela

    Comment


    • #17
      Canadian Truckers Protest Vaccine Mandate - Arriving in Ottawa on Saturday

      Trucker convoy moves through Greater Toronto Area on it's way to Canada's capital | LIVE

      Comment


      • #18
        I do not think the Canadian truckers protest represents a "fringe" group. Thousands of Canadians have cheered on the truckers all along the way from B.C.

        Governments need to pay attention - the general population has had enough of mandates. We said this a long time ago on this site. Most populations complied with strict mandates for the first six months of the pandemic - but two years later - forget it.

        Mandates are unenforceable on a large scale.


        Saying again - all pandemic planning scenarios included the possibility of losing as many people to "collateral" damage as the pandemic disease itself. All government leaders know this.

        One collateral damage is violence due to societal breakdown. Canadians are known for polite behavior. If they are "acting out" in this way - can you imagine how frustrated Americans are? Violent crime in the US is very high right now. link

        So how about governments do their main job? Protect their citizens. What is needed now is calm, pragmatic leadership. No "messaging" - for once.

        Everyone knows about the dangers of COVID-19. Let people make their own decisions about their health, business, social interactions. Give people the tools to stay safe. Free N95 masks is a start.

        We need at least (in no order):

        Unlimited free supply of N95 masks.

        A list of natural and over-the-counter medicines to take for "mild" COVID-19 cases.

        Unlimited free home test kits.

        Continue with free vaccines.

        Cost reduced air filters.

        Cost reduced hand sanitizers.

        Hybrid school arrangements until further notice.

        Organized outdoor community activities for our youth on a regular schedule.

        100% deductible child care expenses.

        Bonuses and/or tax exemptions for people who work in high risk professions like bus driver, cashier, emergency worker, health care worker, teachers who are present on campus, etc.

        A guarantee that ALL people, regardless of vaccination status, will be treated with the same standard of care......



        Make no mistake - it is not a small fringe...it is the majority of people who are unhappy.

        Comment


      • #19
        A live stream to the Ottawa protest. Looks like a lot of regular cars and pickups participating at this time:

        Comment


        • #20
          This interview was done during the Delta days. It's a sensible personal risk evaluation. He does think the vaccine was effective in people who needed it.


          I-Team: Fired ER doctor explains reason for not getting COVID-19 vaccine
          3,847,141 views
          Oct 8, 2021
          _____________________________________________

          Ask Congress to Investigate COVID Origins and Government Response to Pandemic.

          i love myself. the quietest. simplest. most powerful. revolution ever. ---- nayyirah waheed

          "...there’s an obvious contest that’s happening between different sectors of the colonial ruling class in this country. And they would, if they could, lump us into their beef, their struggle." ---- Omali Yeshitela, African People’s Socialist Party

          (My posts are not intended as advice or professional assessments of any kind.)
          Never forget Excalibur.

          Comment


          • #21
            The First Nations appear to be participating in the Ottawa mandate protest. The town of Maniwaki in Quebec is primarily a First Nations (indigenous) area. "it is the largest Algonquin Nation in Canada in both area and population." link


            Last edited by sharon sanders; January 29, 2022, 02:56 PM. Reason: link

            Comment


            • #22
              Originally posted by sharon sanders View Post
              The First Nations appear to be participating in the Ottawa mandate protest. The town of Maniwaki in Quebec is primarily a First Nations (indigenous) area. "it is the largest Algonquin Nation in Canada in both area and population." link

              Some indigenious people giving a speech at the trucker's rally in Ottawa. Screen shot of public livestream at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gc2JBQqZfB4



              Click image for larger version  Name:	canadiatruckerslivestream.png Views:	1 Size:	899.0 KB ID:	937499

              Comment


              • Emily
                Emily commented
                Editing a comment
                It's so cold! I hope the mandates are dropped soon. They make no sense.

            • #23
              Massive blockade of US-Canada border bet. Alberta & Montana: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calga...erta-1.6332936

              Comment


              • Emily
                Emily commented
                Editing a comment
                I hope this gets resolved very soon. I saw someone from Canada on a prayer forum today asking for prayers for the truckers, but also another person from Canada asking for prayers because the food shelves are near empty.

              • Emily
                Emily commented
                Editing a comment
                Thinking about this more...doing a blockade is a form of sanctioning in response to another form of sanctioning. (No vax, no job, etc). I wouldn't join a border protest unless the border remained open. I've loathed sanctions since the US caused the deaths of over 500,000 children in Iraq in the 1990's.

            • #24
              There were a lot of people asking for prayers for COVID illnesses on a prayer forum today, more than I noticed during Delta, though the Delta cases were mostly very severe. A woman described just getting over a case and found depression moved in on her at that point. Her husband was just getting ill and already showing mood changes. That sounded unusual. Also there was a 1 month old with COVID. It sounded like he was OK, but would have to be watched for a few weeks.

              And there was a younger man sick at home for over a week afraid he would be fired.
              _____________________________________________

              Ask Congress to Investigate COVID Origins and Government Response to Pandemic.

              i love myself. the quietest. simplest. most powerful. revolution ever. ---- nayyirah waheed

              "...there’s an obvious contest that’s happening between different sectors of the colonial ruling class in this country. And they would, if they could, lump us into their beef, their struggle." ---- Omali Yeshitela, African People’s Socialist Party

              (My posts are not intended as advice or professional assessments of any kind.)
              Never forget Excalibur.

              Comment


              • #25
                Sinovac - none of the patients getting their first dose were affected by the spilled vaccine - just nurses who had been already vaccinated with the same vaccine. - E



                Kevin McKernan @Kevin_McKernan

                This is fine

                Quote Tweet


                Dr John B.
                @DrJohnB2
                · Jan 28

                Eye and skin irritation after exposure to evaporated #CovidVaccine: https://karger.com/Article/FullText/520500

                "... the vaccine was dropped accidentally onto the floor and broken by an administering nurse." "We recommend caution during vaccine handling and fastidious clean-up of any spills."





                8:48 AM · Jan 28, 2022·Twitter for iPhone


                _____________________________________________

                Ask Congress to Investigate COVID Origins and Government Response to Pandemic.

                i love myself. the quietest. simplest. most powerful. revolution ever. ---- nayyirah waheed

                "...there’s an obvious contest that’s happening between different sectors of the colonial ruling class in this country. And they would, if they could, lump us into their beef, their struggle." ---- Omali Yeshitela, African People’s Socialist Party

                (My posts are not intended as advice or professional assessments of any kind.)
                Never forget Excalibur.

                Comment


                • #26
                  bump this

                  Comment


                  • #27
                    Originally posted by gsgs View Post
                    if something like COVID or especially omicron had happened some centuries ago,
                    would they have decribed it as influenza ?
                    Remembering all the old books that we had studied here in 2006-2008
                    and their desciptions of the history of influenza.

                    It looks somehow unlikely that Corona epidemics had never been observed before.

                    Translation Google


                    Did a coronavirus pandemic take place 130 years ago?

                    The "Russian" flu that claimed a million lives at the end of the 19th century has long been attributed to the influenza virus. But there are signs that a coronavirus is the cause, experts say.

                    Mathieu Gobeil
                    March 7, 2021

                    “I don't think I've ever felt so weak, not even after having malaria in Genoa,” wrote English feminist and social reformer Josephine Butler in a January 1892 letter to her son. She attributes her symptoms of inflamed lungs and her conjunctivitis to the Russian flu which she allegedly contracted the previous Christmas.

                    Three months later, she still hasn't recovered. I am so weak that if I write or read for half an hour, I feel very tired as if I was going to faint, and I have to lie down , she confides to an acquaintance.

                    The disease causes thousands of his compatriots with fever, cough, pain and respiratory problems. But also neurological and fatigue symptoms that are reminiscent of those of COVID-19, researchers now believe.

                    British historian Mark Honigsbaum identified symptoms which are described in the 1890s about this pandemic: neuralgia, neuritis, post-influenza numbness , inertia , psychosis, anxiety and paranoia, among others. Some doctors of the time also believe that they are not dealing with the flu.

                    Like a straw fire

                    This pandemic originated in the steppes of the Russian Empire, during the year 1889, possibly in Uzbekistan. The virus spread very quickly along the railways, in full expansion at the time in Russia and Europe.

                    The city of Saint-Petersburg was seriously affected in the fall of 1889. Then the epidemic quickly moved towards Sweden, and then Western Europe , relates the professor of demography at the University of Montreal Alain Gagnon who studies historical epidemics and pandemics.

                    “ It is spreading like wildfire. »

                    — A quote from Alain Gagnon, professor of demography at the University of Montreal

                    In Paris, deaths reached peaks of more than 400 dead on certain days in the winter of 1889-90. A similar scenario is unfolding in London and other European capitals. Several crowned heads and political leaders fell ill. Queen Victoria's grandson will die of it.

                    In addition to the railway, the development of fast connections by boat contributes to the rapid spread of the virus, relates Professor Gagnon. The first cases in North America were already recorded at the end of December 1889. In Canada, the port of Halifax was the first affected. In Montreal, Quebec City, Toronto and several other cities, cases increase in January and there is an increase in mortality. In subsequent years, the disease returns in waves, sometimes more deadly than the first.

                    It was the first epidemic that was, let's say, tracked. Public health agencies were in their infancy in the late 1800s , recalls the demographer.

                    We therefore have government data as well as reports from caregivers and newspaper articles.

                    "It was also a time when there was a great debate as to whether these epidemics were caused by "miasmas" (emanations from sewers, for example) and particular atmospheric conditions, or by transmissible infectious agents. between people" , microbiology being then in its infancy, explains Alain Gagnon.

                    There were therefore no measures taken such as physical distancing or the wearing of a mask, which would be introduced in 1918-19 during the Spanish flu, thanks to a better knowledge of the transmission of viruses. This influenza pandemic at the end of the First World War was nevertheless much more deadly, with its 50 to 100 million victims .

                    From animal to human

                    However, work published in 2005 by a Belgian team perhaps shed new light on the events of 1889-90. By sequencing the genome of the OC43 coronavirus – one of four benign coronaviruses that circulate widely today and cause colds – researchers have managed to estimate that it passed from cattle to humans around 1890.

                    Last year, a Danish team reported results similar to those of the Belgian team, also dating the emergence of OC43 from the bovine coronavirus BCoV to around 1890, work that has yet to be published in a scientific journal.

                    Taking this information into account, and the fact that the 1889-90 disease was more severe in men than in women and appeared to affect the nervous system, much like COVID-19, scientists have suggested that this pandemic could be caused by the OC43 coronavirus.

                    "We know that at the time there was a massive slaughter of cattle herds because of a bacterial disease (not attributable to a coronavirus). This could have increased contact between the workers and the livestock and they could have contracted the coronavirus which was possibly circulating in the animal" , explains Burtram Fielding, professor of molecular biology at the University of the Western Cape, in South Africa, and coronavirus expert.

                    "Why are so many neurological symptoms reported at the time? It is known that for the three deadly coronaviruses, those of SARS in 2003, MERS in 2012 and that of COVID-19, there is a greater incidence of neurological manifestations. And coronaviruses are known to cause neurological symptoms in animals" , Professor Fielding explains.

                    Despite everything, the attribution of the 1889-90 pandemic to a coronavirus remains a hypothesis.

                    "The genetic arguments supporting the hypothesis of a coronavirus are quite convincing" , judge Alain Gagnon. But as for the descriptions of symptoms from the time, they do not make it possible to distinguish a flu from an illness similar to COVID-19, he notes.

                    First, in the late 19th century, it was common to associate physical symptoms with mental problems, such as nervous states and anxiety, which had to do with "nerves" , as it was understood in the era.

                    In addition, during the Spanish flu, underlines the demographer, certain neurological symptoms were also reported. or cardiovascular and patients dragged out sequelae for months, as in the case of COVID-19.

                    Also, children were not spared by the pandemic of 1889-90, recalls Alain Gagnon, just like during the Spanish flu and other influenza pandemics.

                    Finally, serological studies on immunity suggest that people born before 1889 were partly protected from the 1968 pandemic (the Hong Kong flu), which points to exposure to a similar strain of influenza in both cases.

                    "We can still raise the hypothesis that the coronavirus and the flu virus could have appeared at the same time or circulated in the population towards the end of the 1890s" , advances Alain Gagnon.

                    It is very difficult to prove or disprove the coronavirus hypothesis. But at the same time, it's very difficult to prove or disprove the flu hypothesis , admits Burtram Fielding.

                    "The only way to find out would be to isolate the virus and sequence it, as was done for the Spanish flu virus" , adds Mr. Gagnon.

                    Indeed, researchers in the late 1990s recovered Spanish flu virus RNA fragments in Alaska from a body preserved in permafrost. They also harvested fragments from tissue taken from American flu victims in 1918-19 and then stored. This made it possible, in the 2000s , reconstruct the genetic code of this AH1N1 virus.

                    But as for the Russian flu, we have to go back 28 years before the Spanish flu. And there were far fewer deaths. So, you would really have to be lucky [to find preserved remains that would allow you to do the same], but that would be the hammer argument , says Professor Gagnon.

                    Review the toll of mild coronaviruses

                    With the outbreaks of SARS, MERS and COVID-19 in recent years, scientists are revisiting the coronavirus family. According to Burtram Fielding, it is worth looking into the supposedly mild coronaviruses that cause the common cold, both to understand historical episodes, but also to better envisage the future in the pandemic we are living through.

                    "Viruses like OC43 today may be causing far more deaths around the world than we realize. It is known that such viruses can be problematic in some children, for example those who are immunosuppressed. It's just that we haven't collected data on their wider impact" , says the South African researcher. An American group is working precisely to measure the extent of the mortality of these benign coronaviruses, he mentions.

                    For example, in 2003, when an outbreak occurred in a residence for the elderly in British Columbia, everything suggested that SARS-CoV was the culprit. And for good reason: this deadly coronavirus at the time caused a health crisis in Canada and in several countries. Eight residents die of the 95 infected. But tests later show that this outbreak was due to OC43, this supposedly benign coronavirus.

                    "The death rate was approaching 10%" , reports Mr. Fielding. It can therefore turn out, in certain circumstances, to be more deadly than one might think, he continues.
                    ...

                    https://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle...histoire-covid




                    "Safety and security don't just happen, they are the result of collective consensus and public investment. We owe our children, the most vulnerable citizens in our society, a life free of violence and fear."
                    -Nelson Mandela

                    Comment


                    • gsgs
                      gsgs commented
                      Editing a comment
                      you need no virus from 1889 - just find a related virus in bats. (or whatever)
                      More and more feces and such are being examined with massive data analysis.

                    • JJackson
                      JJackson commented
                      Editing a comment
                      gs - you will need the virus from 1889 as the virus in question, for OC43 was Bovine Corona virus from sequence homology, but that does not answer the question 'was the 1889 pandemic due to a flu or CoV?' for that we need a preserved RNA sequence from one of its victims.

                  • #28
                    A Florida trucker with U.S. and Canadian citizenship explains why he joined the Freedom Convoy despite being vaccinated against COVID-19.

                    Florida trucker in Canada convoy: ‘We’re here to join a movement’
                    As protest rolls through Toronto, vaccinated US-Canadian driver explains his support

                    Nate Tabak Follow on Twitter Friday, January 28, 2022
                    VAUGHAN, Ontario — Florida-based owner-operator DeAndre Mahadeo, like other truckers who rolled past throngs of supporters just outside Toronto, got a rousing send-off on Thursday as he prepared to head to the capital, Ottawa, in a protest against COVID-19 vaccine mandates at the border.

                    Hundreds of people of all ages called them heroes and even freedom fighters as 15 to 20 trucks and a few hundred passenger vehicles paraded through a mall parking lot in Vaughan. Some handed over boxes of cookies, brownies and other snacks.

                    “We’re here to join a movement,” said Mahadeo, 30, a dual U.S.-Canadian citizen who regularly moves freight in both countries. “We need to end these restrictions once and for all.”...
                    _____________________________________________

                    Ask Congress to Investigate COVID Origins and Government Response to Pandemic.

                    i love myself. the quietest. simplest. most powerful. revolution ever. ---- nayyirah waheed

                    "...there’s an obvious contest that’s happening between different sectors of the colonial ruling class in this country. And they would, if they could, lump us into their beef, their struggle." ---- Omali Yeshitela, African People’s Socialist Party

                    (My posts are not intended as advice or professional assessments of any kind.)
                    Never forget Excalibur.

                    Comment


                    • #29
                      Mark Woolhouse, an infectious-disease epidemiologist at the University of Edinburgh, UK, who also advises the government.
                      https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00210-7
                      • NEWS
                      • 31 January 2022
                      Will Omicron end the pandemic? Here’s what experts say

                      ...
                      For Woolhouse, COVID-19 will truly become endemic only when most adults are protected against severe infection because they have been exposed multiple times to the virus as children, and so have developed natural immunity. That will take decades, and it means many older people today (who were not exposed as children) will remain vulnerable and might need continued vaccinations.

                      That strategy has its flaws. Some of those exposed as children will develop long COVID. And it relies on children continuing to show much lower rates of severe illness as variants evolve.

                      There are no guarantees that the next variant will be milder, but Tang says that seems to be the pattern so far. “This virus is getting milder and milder with each iteration,” he says.
                      _____________________________________________

                      Ask Congress to Investigate COVID Origins and Government Response to Pandemic.

                      i love myself. the quietest. simplest. most powerful. revolution ever. ---- nayyirah waheed

                      "...there’s an obvious contest that’s happening between different sectors of the colonial ruling class in this country. And they would, if they could, lump us into their beef, their struggle." ---- Omali Yeshitela, African People’s Socialist Party

                      (My posts are not intended as advice or professional assessments of any kind.)
                      Never forget Excalibur.

                      Comment


                      • JJackson
                        JJackson commented
                        Editing a comment
                        I think Woodhouse is on the right track but would argue the virus is already endemic. The high morbidity will decline once everyone has been challenged by the virus, or vaccine, and will be maintained throughout life by subsequent re-challenges. The problem comes for the very young, who have yet to have had their initial childhood vaccination, and the very old whose frailty makes even moderate illness life threatening. For the rest of us it will be an ILI we have to put up with.
                        Tang is way off track. In order of virulence the VOC probably run Gamma, Beta, Delta, Alpha and Omicron with the ancestral strain about the same as Alpha. It is very hard to compare the strains as they each infected very different host populations so only their severity in hosts that have never been infected or vaccinated can be gauged. Even if you have not been vaccinated and never been ill that does not mean you have not been challenged and fought of the infection before it could get established. This will be enough to give you a little immune memory and a milder subsequent course of illness, a few challenges like this will leave you well protected.
                        To the best of my knowledge I have only had flu once, in the 1968 pandemic, and very rarely get a cold. I doubt this is due to not being challenged by the viruses but by being lucky enough to have a robust immune system that gets regularly primed.

                      • Emily
                        Emily commented
                        Editing a comment
                        Agree that the move to less virulence hasn't been a nice, smooth path down.

                    • #30
                      This doctor is located in New York city


                      Craig Spencer MD MPH

                      @Craig_A_Spencer
                      ·
                      7h
                      Just worked 12 hours in the ER on a busy Monday and didn’t have a single Covid patient. Not one. This ain’t over. But it’s a helluva lot better than even just a few weeks ago.
                      236

                      Comment

                      Working...
                      X