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Discussion thread VII - COVID-19: Endemic Stage

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  • CIDRAP- FDA authorizes updated COVID boosters from Moderna and Pfizer

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    • If you have any medical questions please contact your medical practitioner.


      CDC Recommends the First Updated COVID-19 Booster - September 1, 2022

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      • Translation Google

        SWITZERLAND:

        updated Sep 8, 2022 at 10:47 am

        3000 deaths more than expected - excess mortality is a mystery

        For weeks, far more people have been dying in Switzerland than forecast by the Federal Statistical Office - what is behind it?
        from

        Dominic Fisher

        That's what it's about

        This year, 3,000 more people have died than expected.
        The Federal Statistical Office had actually assumed a “death deficit” for this year.
        Epidemiologists are puzzling over the exact causes of excess mortality.

        There has been excess mortality in Switzerland for eleven weeks. This emerges from the number of deaths from the Federal Statistical Office (BFS). This means that more people die every week than the BFS expects based on its forecasts. The reasons for the unusual phenomenon are still unclear, according to Christian Althaus, epidemiologist at the University of Bern, such uninterrupted excess mortality "has not existed in recent history".

        Deviation of forecasts is extreme

        As reported by the Tamedia newspapers , there has always been excess mortality in previous years, for example in the hot summer of 2003, during the severe flu epidemic in winter 2015 or during the last two pandemic winters .

        At the moment, however, the deviation from the forecasts is extreme: In 2020, up to August, 1,500 more people died than expected, in 2021 it was 1,300 people, and this year there are already 3,000 additional deaths, twice as many.

        Part of the explanation: The FSO had expected a "death deficit" for this year after the excess mortality of the last two years and thus set the expected values ​​lower, since many people who, statistically speaking, would have lived until 2022 died prematurely. However, even more people died in the three summer months than in the summer months of 2021 or 2020.

        Heatwave and Covid are a deadly mix

        The epidemiologist Christian Althaus suspects that the hot summer and Covid caused the excess mortality. According to the Tamedia newspapers, the combination of the two factors could be deadly. Studies have shown that a previous Covid infection massively increases the risk of cardiovascular disease. The people affected are therefore also more vulnerable to the effects of the heat wave.
        ...
        The epidemiologist Martin Röösli says: "In my opinion, it is quite possible that former Covid sufferers tolerated the heat less well." The 1,700 additional deaths in the last eleven weeks are definitely “worrying”, especially since it is difficult to assess how the situation will develop in the coming months.

        Researchers will have to wait quite a while for final certainty: the FSO will not publish the cause of death statistics for 2022 for a year and a half at the earliest.

        https://www.20min.ch/story/3000-tode...f-655376235646
        "Safety and security don't just happen, they are the result of collective consensus and public investment. We owe our children, the most vulnerable citizens in our society, a life free of violence and fear."
        -Nelson Mandela

        Comment


        • https://www.denverpost.com/2022/09/1...d-lilly-downs/
          A Colorado teen’s long COVID isn’t just persisting — after 2 years, it’s getting worse

          https://www.denverpost.com/2021/10/0...eens-colorado/
          One treatment they saw improvement with was a 10-day course of remdesivir, which they gave to Lilly in mid-December after finding particles in her eccrine skin cells that they thought could be from the virus. The teenager’s lesions even briefly disappeared after she was administered the antiviral drug, which was the first COVID-19 treatment approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration. But it was short-lived.

          The lesions — and the pain they caused — came roaring back after the treatment stopped, according to her medical records.
          Remdesivir was the result of research into a drug to to treat FIP.

          Clinical and Molecular Relationships between COVID-19 and Feline Infectious Peritonitis (FIP)

          _____________________________________________

          Ask Congress to Investigate COVID Origins and Government Response to Pandemic H.R. 834

          i love myself. the quietest. simplest. most powerful. revolution ever. ---- nayyirah waheed
          Governments don't have or own souls.

          (My posts are not intended as advice or professional assessments of any kind.)
          Never forget Excalibur.

          Comment


          • new variant BJ.1 in West Bengal
            gains 5% per day against BA2
            10 mutations in spike, still dscends fron BA2
            I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
            my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

            Comment


            • gsgs
              gsgs commented
              Editing a comment
              sequences in weeks 130-141 at cog_UK
              BA.2.75 , 9,6,8,2,3,7,17,16,24,26,44,39
              BA.2.75.2 : 0,1,0,0,0,0,2,0,7,7,9,14
              BJ.1 : 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,1
              BA.5 : 6388,8468,8723,5987,5734,5124,3740,2970,2333,,1645 ,1706,1138

          • COVID-19 is not "over". It is endemic since a long time. It will be around in various genetic variations. As this site said at the beginning - you need to take care of you. Evaluate your situation and keep up with the news.

            It was always going to be this way.

            Do not take medical advice from the internet - or politicians. If you have any medical questions, consult your medical practitioner.
            Last edited by sharon sanders; September 19, 2022, 06:44 PM. Reason: punctuation

            Comment


            • gsgs
              gsgs commented
              Editing a comment
              hmm, JJackson, as a Brit, you maybe just only remember the AZ-vaccine ?
              I just checked wikipedia ... also my posted charts above.
              90%-95% against infection for mRNA for Wuhan and alpha

            • JJackson
              JJackson commented
              Editing a comment
              gs I remembered that the end points were primary - disease, and secondary - severe disease for the mRNA trials so I went back and looked at the exact wording of the FDA phase 3 trial protocol. The primary end point was 'lab confirmed COVID' technically COVID is symptomatic disease, as apposed to SARS-Cov-2 viral infection, so I tried to find if they were testing those with symptoms, or just routinely screening everyone at regular intervals and calling all PCR positive samples COVID, but could not find a definitve answer. The secondary end point is a lot simpler as they have a list of clinical criteria.

            • gsgs
              gsgs commented
              Editing a comment
              Wikipedia gives effectiveness against symptomatic and asymptomatic.disease
              No big difference.

              https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pfizer...#Effectiveness
              92,92 (alpha) , 92,94(Wuhan) , 79,83 (delta) 2 doses

              https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modern...#Effectiveness
              --,90(alpha) --,93(Wuhan) 54,74 (delta) 2 doses

              95% efficacy were the headlines in the news and stockprices
              went up a lot. That's what I remembered when posting 95%..
              Here is the paper:
              https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33301246/

          • the wave obviously starts in Austria in age 05-14 after school-holidays
            https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FdHVJciX...g&name=900x900
            I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
            my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

            Comment


            • Translation Google

              Covid-19: the eighth wave is looming in France, in relative indifference

              Contaminations have been going up since the start of the school year… in relative indifference. The impact of this new wave remains difficult to predict.

              Ouest France
              Philippe Richard .
              Modified09/20/2022 at 6:50 p.m.
              Published on09/20/2022 at 6:25 p.m.

              Eighth wave or rebound? Monday, the Minister of Health François Braun assured France Inter : “It is too early to say that this is the start of the eighth wave”. However, in the absence of braking measures, there is no reason for the increase in contamination to fade quickly, as the fall begins.

              What can we anticipate from the impact of this wave? “An epidemic wave is not modeled like the climate, underlines Pascal Crépey, biostatistician at the School of Advanced Studies in Public Health in Rennes. A boat caught in a storm will know the intensity of what it will undergo. In epidemiology, the intensity depends on the behavior of the boat, in this case the capacity of the population to implement barrier gestures. »

              An unpredictable profile

              Due to the number of factors involved - in particular the degree of immunity of the population and protection against serious forms - the epidemiologists of the Institut Pasteur had the greatest difficulty in modeling the 7th summer wave. The exercise will not be easier this time.

              For the epidemiologist, we can expect “a measured increase until mid-October, a stabilization during the All Saints holidays and then a sharp increase. But there are a lot of unknowns. »

              A new variant?

              Especially since if the BA.5 variant, that of the 7th wave, is omnipresent, other "boys" of Omicron could add unpredictability, like this BA.2.75, on the way to becoming the majority in India and which nibbles percentages in France.

              “At the hospital, we have not yet had a resurgence, recognizes Professor Gilles Pialoux, head of the infectiology department at Tenon hospital (Paris). The gray area concerns people at risk of a serious form. A third of those aged 60-79 had two booster doses, half of those over 80. »

              The doctor has two other concerns: “ The conjunction with the flu, after a year without flu and a weak epidemic in 2021 . And especially the state in which the hospital is. The emergencies held up this summer, but in my hospital, we have 12% of beds closed due to lack of staff. »

              No stopping before the line

              How to explain the apparent indifference of the population and the authorities at the dawn of this eighth wave?

              "Me, I don't get used to the death toll. 147 in the week is 147 too many . There is a populist drift in health measures, believes Gilles Pialoux. People want to hear it's over, but it's not true. I like the expression that the boss of the WHO had a few days ago: A marathon runner does not stop when the finish line is in sight. »

              “ We know that binding measures have an expiry date, considers Pascal Crépey. They wear out over time. Taking action too early would result in public misunderstanding. It is important to keep cartridges. »

              Can we expect a spontaneous return to more barrier gestures? “A large part of the population has confused the end of the state of health emergency with the end of the need for barrier gestures,” said Gilles Pialoux. If everyone had stopped wearing condoms when AIDS became a lesser threat... There is no need for an obligation to maintain individual preventive measures.”

              https://www.ouest-france.fr/sante/vi...e-79042fcc07f9
              "Safety and security don't just happen, they are the result of collective consensus and public investment. We owe our children, the most vulnerable citizens in our society, a life free of violence and fear."
              -Nelson Mandela

              Comment


              • gsgs
                gsgs commented
                Editing a comment
                it becomes much better predictable when you also look what happens in other countries.
                I do not see waves yet as severe as in 2020,2021 , since Hongkong in March 2022

            • Originally posted by gsgs View Post
              the wave obviously starts in Austria in age 05-14 after school-holidays
              https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FdHVJciX...g&name=900x900
              also in France, see below. Also in Germany, where schools started at different dates
              depending on Bundesland.

              Also in UK , see cases by agegroup.
              I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
              my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

              Comment


              • Denmark, weeks 34-38 , variants in %
                BA.2.75 : 0.7,0.9,0.9,1.4,2.8
                BQ.1* : 0.0,0.0,0.3,0.9,2.0
                XBB : 0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.3
                Netherlands, weeks 34-37
                BA.2.75* : 1.0,1.9,1.8,1.5
                BQ.1* : 0.0,0.0,1.2,3.1
                XBB : 0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
                I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                Comment


                • This is NOT medical advice. If you have any medical questions consult your medical practitioner.


                  Going into this fall I am still doing everything I can to prevent COVID-19. So far I have not contracted it (to my knowledge). Still:

                  1. I wear a clean 95N mask indoors.

                  2. No inside restaurants or other inside entertainment venues.

                  3. No crowds.

                  4. Directed trips to inside areas like the grocery store. I do not casually shop the store. I have a list and know what I am getting ahead of time.

                  5. Carry hand sanitizer packets in my purse. Carry liquid hand sanitizer in the cup holders of my car.

                  6. Wipe down or spray everything coming into the house.

                  7. My animals are not allowed to be in contact with any other animals.


                  I do not care what people think. I plan to venture out frequently to outside venues as the weather becomes less humid but I will still avoid crowded situations.

                  I have not taken the new revised booster shot yet. I might get it. I have not decided. I did get the original two shots and followed with two boosters.

                  I posted because I want to support people who do not want to get COVID-19 and are still trying to prevent infection. COVID-19 is endemic and it has not magically disappeared.

                  I have never supported government mandated lockdowns, masks, vaccines, etc. for the general population. However, I do think people in congregate settings, like nursing homes, need to be protected.

                  Thank you for viewing and take care of yourself.

                  Comment


                  • Emily
                    Emily commented
                    Editing a comment
                    Citizens in nursing homes and hospitals have the same human rights as the rest of us. Decisions are theirs and theirs alone, unless they are mentally incapacitated, then decisions should be made by family or designated medical powers of attorney. Institutions should never have the power to isolate us from our advocates and family.

                  • sharon sanders
                    sharon sanders commented
                    Editing a comment
                    Most people in nursing homes are medically frail. This is why they are there. Masking mandates for staff would help them. Let's not lose sight of reasonableness.

                • https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra...aths_select_00
                  The blue bars show daily deaths. The red line is the 7-day moving average of deaths.

                  us-state-trends(1).png
                  _____________________________________________

                  Ask Congress to Investigate COVID Origins and Government Response to Pandemic H.R. 834

                  i love myself. the quietest. simplest. most powerful. revolution ever. ---- nayyirah waheed
                  Governments don't have or own souls.

                  (My posts are not intended as advice or professional assessments of any kind.)
                  Never forget Excalibur.

                  Comment


                  • sharon sanders
                    sharon sanders commented
                    Editing a comment
                    Even though deaths are way down from their peak, I think 400ish people dying a day is a sizable number. That is 146,000 on an annual basis and would place COVID as the 6th biggest cause of death in the US - above diabetes and Alzheimers. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/lea...s-of-death.htm

                • https://www.livemint.com/opinion/col...782717702.html
                  Who is still dying from covid in America remains a mystery

                  4 min read . Updated: 21 Sep 2022, 11:26 PM ISTFaye Flam, Bloomberg
                  The pandemic’s not fully over and fatality risks are very confusing
                  ...

                  Topol has also shared concerns about our lack of information. Not only do we lack detailed information on how many (if any) vaccine shots they’ve had, we also lack data on what treatments they received. “Did they get Paxlovid? Did they get bebtelovimab?" he asked in a daily paper. (Bebtelovimab is a monoclonal antibody treatment.)

                  Even if vaccines vastly reduce risk, it doesn’t follow that anti-vaxxers are the root of the problem. It’s possible for vaccines to be very protective but still see fully vaccinated people die, simply because younger unvaccinated people face less risk than fully vaccinated seniors. One reason clear data isn’t available is that the US doesn’t collect that information in a uniform way, said Stephen Kissler, a researcher at the Harvard School of Public Health. “A lot of public health happens at city level or lower so, because of that, it’s really hard to combine data across states to assess who is ending up in the hospital or dying of covid," he said. “The mix is hard to standardize." Another challenge has to do with the complex immunological landscape, he said. It’s not just a matter of how many boosters people have that determines their level of protection, but when they’ve gotten them. Add to that the fact that the most vulnerable people are more likely to get vaccinated.

                  There’s another deceptive factor that can make it look like everyone is in pretty good shape, said Andrew Noymer, associate professor of public health at the University of California, Irvine. The infection fatality rate, a number many were obsessed with finding early in the pandemic, is probably now close to that of flu. But the disease is killing a lot more people than flu because so many people are getting covid. It’s now common for people to get it several times a year, which is far more often than the flu.

                  Even public health experts who are furious with Biden for his remarks have had to concede they were wrong in claiming that we’d “crush" the pandemic if only enough people followed the rules, stayed locked down or masked up for 100 days. “When this first arrived, we thought this would be a nightmare for six months and it would go away because we’d all have immunity," said Noymer. “That hasn’t panned out."

                  What Americans need is not to keep hearing the word ‘pandemic’ but to get some clarity about what we should be doing. We don’t all share the same values, but we should at least have the chance to argue over the same data.

                  Faye Flam is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering science
                  _____________________________________________

                  Ask Congress to Investigate COVID Origins and Government Response to Pandemic H.R. 834

                  i love myself. the quietest. simplest. most powerful. revolution ever. ---- nayyirah waheed
                  Governments don't have or own souls.

                  (My posts are not intended as advice or professional assessments of any kind.)
                  Never forget Excalibur.

                  Comment


                  • gsgs
                    gsgs commented
                    Editing a comment
                    yes, I'm missing the data by vaccination status _and natural infection
                    just a small sample, an estimate. Who has it ?

                • Originally posted by gsgs View Post

                  also in France, see below. Also in Germany, where schools started at different dates
                  depending on Bundesland.

                  Also in UK , see cases by agegroup.
                  I meant above, not below.

                  Here for Germany : (to be updated)

                  http://magictour.free.fr\ferien4.GIF


                  I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                  my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                  Comment


                  • The US needs to stop their vaccine mandates across the board!
                    .
                    https://igorchudov.substack.com/p/pf...ng-covid-again
                    Bourla has Covid Again, a Month After His Previous Bout

                    Igor Chudov

                    Sep 24



                    _____________________________________________

                    Ask Congress to Investigate COVID Origins and Government Response to Pandemic H.R. 834

                    i love myself. the quietest. simplest. most powerful. revolution ever. ---- nayyirah waheed
                    Governments don't have or own souls.

                    (My posts are not intended as advice or professional assessments of any kind.)
                    Never forget Excalibur.

                    Comment

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