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Omicron - COVID-19 Variant (B.1.1529) a "Variant of Concern" & BA.2 sub-variant, XE
And yet, hospitalization in Gauten SA is up 6x compared to 2.5 weeks ago. So, what gives in this contradiction? (see the chart I posted yesterday in this thread for the real data)
There is this:
It may be Delta is still a real problem even with all the attention on Omicron?
Sharon, I think the rapid COVID hospitalization increase (up 6x) are the result of Omicron infections, not a [unseen ??] wave of Delta. " Now, as many as 90% of the new cases in Gauteng are caused by it, according to Tulio de Oliveira, director of the KwaZulu-Natal Research Innovation and Sequencing Platform." LINK
I am guessing the reduced severity [I still question this 'fact'] could be the result that the vast majority of S. Africa has significant immunity in addition to the youthful age distribution. About 22% are fully vaccinated, and another 29% to 46% are seropositive depending on the location and demographic LINK1 LINK2 and presumably have some level of acquire immune response. So one could expect that a combined total of about 52 - 88% of the S. African population should be able to have at least some level of immune response which could ameliorate disease severity.
The US should have similar levels as S. Africa in the percentage of the population with some level of acquired immune response: "In this repeated cross-sectional study that included 1 443 519 blood donation specimens from a catchment area representing 74% of the US population, estimated SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence weighted for differences between the study sample and general population increased from 3.5% in July 2020 to 20.2% for infection-induced antibodies and 83.3% for combined infection- and vaccine-induced antibodies in May 2021." LINK
Finally, I want to point out from a US perspective, there remain about 56 million citizens with neither any vaccination nor infection-induced antibodies. Omicron may prove to be quite severe impact on these 56 million people. Other nations also have Covid-naive cohorts which could be at higher severity risk.
I think it is too soon for the popular media-doctors to be publicly commenting on Omicron severity until the data is better understood, even if they sprinkle their opinions with 'maybe' and 'probably'. Frankly, the public does not hear or remember the 'maybes' and 'probablys', and the press headlines ignore these words, and social media misappropriates quotes out of context. If the media-doctors are wrong (again), this only harms the credibility of scientists and science reporting media.
natural immunity doesn't seem to help much against omicron showed a recent study.
I wonder whether there are lots of asymptomatic cases or cases with low infection,
not enough to show antibodies in blood.
In almost 10 days, omicron has almost completely replaced delta. Cases are in a younger age group and reported to be milder. (Still to be confirmed.) Prof. Vardas said about 10-20% of cases are sequenced. (Very expensive.)
Discussion | Identifying Omicron in COVID-19 tests
3,729 views
Dec 5, 2021
eNCA
1.1M subscribers
Most people who now test for COVID-19 have been found to have the new Omicron variant. That's the discovery made my Lancet Laboratories. Head of Clinical Virology at Lancet Laboratories, Professor Eftyhia Vardas explains #eNCA Courtesy #DStv403
"...there’s an obvious contest that’s happening between different sectors of the colonial ruling class in this country. And they would, if they could, lump us into their beef, their struggle." ---- Omali Yeshitela, African People’s Socialist Party
(My posts are not intended as advice or professional assessments of any kind.) Never forget Excalibur.
natural immunity doesn't seem to help much against omicron showed a recent study.
I wonder whether there are lots of asymptomatic cases or cases with low infection,
not enough to show antibodies in blood.
I think what the data shows is that natural immunity doesn't seem to help much at preventing infection showed a recent study. The data may show that natural immunity *may* help with ameliorating disease severity. Two different outcomes.
https://twitter.com/NoyesJHumphrey "If it's mild, why are the oxygen demands of Omicron slightly higher than those of Delta? That a significant chunk of those receiving oxygen are children should be lost on no one—this will be the most destructive wave yet."
So many variables going on here. First, sequencing is supposed to be faster for SGTF samples than it was for Delta. Second, the Rt of omicron could be much higher than Delta resulting in many time more cases, but the risk to each individual case could be lower. Third, we have more immunity to COVID in SA from either vaccine or (sadly, more often) previous infection. All of these variables will chart a different course for Omicron as they each pull the graph in a different direction.
https://twitter.com/NoyesJHumphrey "If it's mild, why are the oxygen demands of Omicron slightly higher than those of Delta? That a significant chunk of those receiving oxygen are children should be lost on no one—this will be the most destructive wave yet."
Do you have a link for the graph? NoyesJHumphrey does not have a bio listed on his twit account so I can not evaluate his info or comments.
Can't find backgrounds on the 2 sources. Other tweets give insight, though. People that scoff at the deaths or the burden that the pandemic is putting on common people might have an agenda to fearmonger.
Benjamin K Wellander @Benjaministern”Med covid” är väl lika ute som att skriva ”mansperson” i stället för man? Kom igen svenska journalister, det är dags att uppdatera era falska sociala markörer för upplysning. Om världspressen skriver att någon dött av covid så får ni skriva det - jag lovar ingen kommer slå er
jorgenponder — om coronavirusepidemin
@jorgenponder
· 11h
Om de hade tagit vaccin, så kunde de dött utan Covid.
Steve Miller @SteveMillerOC
BREAKING: Socialist is upset when people profit from developing solutions that will solve problems and save lives. In other news, dog bites man.
Quote Tweet
Bernie Sanders
@SenSanders
· Dec 5
This is obscene. Last week, 8 investors in Pfizer and Moderna became $10 billion richer as news about the Omicron variant spread. It's time for these pharmaceutical companies to share their vaccines with the world and start controlling their greed. Enough is enough! 8:30 PM · Dec 6, 2021·Twitter for iPhone
"...there’s an obvious contest that’s happening between different sectors of the colonial ruling class in this country. And they would, if they could, lump us into their beef, their struggle." ---- Omali Yeshitela, African People’s Socialist Party
(My posts are not intended as advice or professional assessments of any kind.) Never forget Excalibur.
I believe oxygenated means a person has an oxygenation tube under their nose. This, alone, does not alarm me. I have had this tube placed after a surgery as an assist to my general treatment.
I believe ventilation is a real problem. This procedure is only done if a person can not adequately breathe.
There are 41 people who are currently ventilated in Gauteng province out of 1,670 people hospitalized which is 2.4% of hospitalized patients.
I have seen that some social media and main stream media have mocked well known people who were "vaccine deniers" if they died of COVID-19. This is a travesty. Stop it.
Also, please do not post anything without a direct link to the underlying data. We generally do not bring anything from twitter unless we can evaluate the source (i.e. expert, government data, etc.).
My general "take" on Omicron is that I have no clue about anything on this variant. I am cautiously optimistic about the severity. The potential for higher transmissibility and lack of antibody protection from previous exposures/vaccine is not great news.
We do not track the "common cold" here. It would be like trying to count the grains of sand on a beach.
I am waiting to see on Omicron, meanwhile, Delta is a threat that demands respect. I am living a COVID-19 lifestyle which should help protect me if Omicron turns out to be as deadly.
So-Called “Stealth” Omicron Offshoot Identified By Scientists In Three Countries
By Tom Tapp
Scientists have identified a new Covid-19 lineage responsible for a number of recent Covid cases in South Africa, Australia and Canada that displays “many of the defining mutations of B.1.1.529 (Omicron) [but does] not have the full set. These cases also have “a number of their own unique mutations,” according to analysis posted on information sharing platform GitHub. The platform is widely used by top researchers to share data and information related to Covid-19.
As a result of those similarities and differences with the original Omicron, which was first identified about two weeks ago, the new sequence is being called BA.2, while the original variant has been dubbed BA.1...
...Why does that matter? It makes tracking the spread of Omicron more difficult at a time when surveillance of the new variant is critical to understanding it. Only seven cases of BA.2 have been identified thus far, reported the Guardian, the picture is still far from complete...
Per the Guardian: “To have two variants, BA.1 and BA.2, arise in quick succession with shared mutations is ‘worrying’ according to one researcher, and suggests public health surveillance ‘is missing a big piece of the puzzle.’ “
This blogger with a Navy and science background, has a theory about all this. Basically I think he thinks that omicron is from a lineage of the parent virus of the Wuhan strain. He thinks it escaped from a lab in China much earlier - 2018. Omicron circulated for some time before turning virulent enough to be noticed when a variant became the Wuhan strain. China's CCP had hoped that wouldn't happen. This is his theory:
A world inquiring about the origins of SARS-CoV-2 has been met with repeated antipathy and lack of cooperation on the part of the Chinese Communist Party. Consequently, any speculation that the CCP concealed the presence of SARS-CoV-2 prior to December 2019 must be researched through an examination of corroborating yet circumstantial evidence. Inference which may be ascertained only through prosecution along a series of must-answer critical questions.
The Chinese Communist Party owes the entire world restitution for its negligent handling and release of a virus which they fully understood could be deployed as a weapon of war. A virus which has destroyed human rights, worldwide economies, and furthermore resulted in over 5 million deaths globally to date.
"...there’s an obvious contest that’s happening between different sectors of the colonial ruling class in this country. And they would, if they could, lump us into their beef, their struggle." ---- Omali Yeshitela, African People’s Socialist Party
(My posts are not intended as advice or professional assessments of any kind.) Never forget Excalibur.
gsgs, I'm not smart enough about viral genetics to understand that, unfortunately. I might even have my summary wrong. I noticed the author does respond to comments and seems polite & friendly if you'd like to bring that up with him.
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