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Omicron - COVID-19 Variant (B.1.1529) a "Variant of Concern" & BA.2 sub-variant, XE
-- Here it states the first detection of Omicron was on November 11th, 19 days ago --
— Trevor Bedford @trvrb
Here, I took the exact same approach using 77 available Omicron genomes from South Africa and Botswana. This yields a median estimate of a common ancestor at Oct 7 (95% CI between Sep 19 and Oct 21). This seems consistent with first detection in a sample from 11 Nov.
· Nov 27 @stuartjdneil , I’m would be interested to have your serious opinion on that. Seems yet another type of look for trouble experiment. And apparently useless wrt the one you described yesterday Quote Tweet Yuri Deigin @ydeigin · Nov 27 Oh and they actually were doing similar experiments in South Africa: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33780970/ Show this thread
· Nov 27 Found one rational explanation actually Quote Tweet Moritz Gerstung @MoritzGerstung · Nov 26 Some thoughts about the punctuated evolution of variants of concern including B.1.1.529 in Southern Africa. A shared characteristic of all known VOCs is that they appeared suddenly with a large number of mutations, many more than the incremental changes we see normally. Show this thread
· Nov 28 Or they are the result of experiments. MA experiments, VSV-spike experiments. BSL-3 containment is actually insufficient to contain SARS-CoV-2 and many directed evolution models are BSL-2.
· Nov 28 Poor containment efficacy especially if the virus is used as an infectious cDNA clone, or recombination-prone large segments of the viral genome were used in a model that does not involve the full virus and therefore used in BSL-2
Daoyu @Daoyu15 · Nov 28 H655Y Quote Tweet notoriousFIL @notoriousFIL · Aug 14 I posited yesterday that perhaps the presence of H655Y in the Gamma variant could be understood as evidence of a laboratory acquired infection. It has been brought to my attention that a preprint specifically regarding properties of this mutation came out on August 5th. A : Show this thread
· Nov 28 Also, HIV patients usually give line lengths that are about half this length. The line length lead to other VOCs were less than 1/4 that lead to 21K. Not likely a single patient can cause this. It takes more plasma selection using VSV-SARS-CoV-2 S to achieve this.
· Nov 28 The length leading to other VOCs were less than half to about a quarter that of the 21K cluster. The S1 had twice as many mutations than all that have ever been accumulated before. Hard to make for a single patient, and would have required directed evolution (VSV-spike passages)
Replying to @Daoyu15 and @SebViret In order for this to suddenly jump to twice the accumulated mutations of previous strains without leaving behind even a single sampled intermediate strain given the frequency of sampling globally and in ZA. 8:30 AM · Nov 28, 2021·Twitter for iPhone
"...there’s an obvious contest that’s happening between different sectors of the colonial ruling class in this country. And they would, if they could, lump us into their beef, their struggle." ---- Omali Yeshitela, African People’s Socialist Party
(My posts are not intended as advice or professional assessments of any kind.) Never forget Excalibur.
Two doctors in Israel infected with suspected Omicron variant. Triple vaccinated (with Pfizer vaccine I assume since it is Israel). Presumably infected despite full PPE [*my assumption]
Omicron COVID variant: Two Sheba doctors confirmed infected
"Regarding the first doctor, the hospital said in a statement on Monday that “the doctor is vaccinated with three doses of the coronavirus vaccine, his condition is mild and he is improving,” adding that he does not need any medical attention."
"The second doctor, also a cardiologist, was likewise fully vaccinated." [*which means 3 shots in Israel]
The 3D "shape" is illustrated in Alpha B.1.1.7, Delta B1.617.2, Beta B1.1.351 and Gamma: P.1.
In other words, the 3D "shape" is the same for all variants listed above.
Omicron variant: the "light at the end of the tunnel" that will end the covid epidemic?
The new variant could sign the end of the epidemic.
Published on 11/30/2021 at 3:51 PM
Paradoxically enough, the appearance of the Omicron variant could be good news in the fight against the covid epidemic.
"In my opinion, this new variant is perhaps the light at the end of the tunnel," assures an Israeli immunologist on Tuesday on i24News .
Professor Zvika Granot of the Hebrew University of Jerusalem believes Omicron "is a very contagious variant, but perhaps not as aggressive as feared".
The doctor is basing his analysis on data from South Africa where this new variant was identified last week. The health authorities of the countries of southern Africa, particularly affected, indicate that the cases of Omicron rather suffer from benign symptoms less virulent than those of the Delta variant, which has become the majority in the world since this summer. People infected with this mutated virus seem to suffer much less from breathing difficulties in particular.
"Less and less aggressive"
"As the coronavirus evolves, it will be less and less aggressive," added Professor Granot. Omicron could therefore eventually supplant Delta with its high transmission capacity but at the same time drastically reduce the impact on the health system. According to the immunologist, the virus will probably still be present for many years, with new variants, less and less able to reach the status of a global pandemic.
...
Nicolas Monnet
Maybe this new variant is the light at the end of the tunnel,' says immunologist
30 Nov 2021
"Safety and security don't just happen, they are the result of collective consensus and public investment. We owe our children, the most vulnerable citizens in our society, a life free of violence and fear." -Nelson Mandela
Regeneron — which markets REGEN-COV, the most widely used monoclonal antibody therapy to treat COVID-19 in the US — cautioned that further studies are needed to determine whether the Om…
Regeneron warns its antibody cocktail may be less effective against Omicron variant
By Abraham Ziff
November 30, 2021 1:49pm Updated
Regeneron warned its popular antibody cocktail used to treat high-risk cases of COVID-19 may not be as effective against the new Omicron variant.
The New York-based pharmaceutical company said initial analyses indicate that “there may be reduced neutralization activity of both vaccine-induced and monoclonal antibody conveyed immunity.”
Regeneron — which markets REGEN-COV, the most widely used monoclonal antibody therapy to treat COVID-19 in the US — cautioned that further studies are needed to determine whether the Omicron variant can evade its therapies.
It also added that “preliminary analyses suggest” that other treatments it is developing could work against Omicron. Regeneron said it anticipates new data on the treatments sometime next month...
"...there’s an obvious contest that’s happening between different sectors of the colonial ruling class in this country. And they would, if they could, lump us into their beef, their struggle." ---- Omali Yeshitela, African People’s Socialist Party
(My posts are not intended as advice or professional assessments of any kind.) Never forget Excalibur.
Omicron variant: the "light at the end of the tunnel" that will end the covid epidemic?
The new variant could sign the end of the epidemic.
...
...."Less and less aggressive"
If that is the case, then why are the ICU and 'High Care' admissions in Gauteng SA up 5x in just 2.5 weeks??
To me this article is just more media driven unwarranted optimism. The hospital data from S. Africa strongly argues the opposite !
November 30, 2021
1:25 PM CST
Last Updated 3 hours ago
Omicron variant could outcompete Delta, South African disease expert says
By Alexander Winning
JOHANNESBURG, Nov 30 (Reuters) - The Omicron coronavirus variant detected in southern Africa could be the most likely candidate to displace the highly contagious Delta variant, the director of South Africa's communicable disease institute said on Tuesday.
...
"We thought what will outcompete Delta? That has always been the question, in terms of transmissibility at least, ... perhaps this particular variant is the variant," Adrian Puren, acting executive director of South Africa's National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD), told Reuters in an interview.
... Puren said it was too early to say whether Omicron was displacing Delta in South Africa, since local scientists have only produced 87 sequences of Omicron so far.
...
Anne von Gottberg, a clinical microbiologist at the NICD, said it looked like infections were rising throughout the country.
On Monday, an NICD presentation a flagged a large number of COVID-19 admissions among infants aged under two years as an area of concern. But von Gottberg cautioned against linking that with Omicron just yet.
"It looks like in fact some of those admissions might have started before the emergence of Omicron. We are also seeing that there was an increase in influenza cases just in the last month or so, and so we need to be really careful to look at the other respiratory infections," she said.
"We are looking at the data very, very carefully, but at the moment I'm not too sure that we can link it definitively to Omicron."
...
"Safety and security don't just happen, they are the result of collective consensus and public investment. We owe our children, the most vulnerable citizens in our society, a life free of violence and fear." -Nelson Mandela
De omikronvariant van het coronavirus heeft zich medio november al binnen Nederland verspreid. Een van de twee mensen in Nederland die op 19 en 23 november bij de GGD positief testten op de omikronvariant, was kort daarvoor niet op reis geweest en moet het virus dus in Nederland hebben opgelopen. Dat meldt het RIVM dinsdagmiddag aan NU.nl.
The omikron variant of the coronavirus has already spread within the Netherlands in mid-November. One of the two people in the Netherlands who tested positive for the omikron variant at the GGD on 19 and 23 November had not been on a trip shortly before and must therefore have contracted the virus in the Netherlands. The RIVM reported this to NU.nl on Tuesday afternoon.
"...there’s an obvious contest that’s happening between different sectors of the colonial ruling class in this country. And they would, if they could, lump us into their beef, their struggle." ---- Omali Yeshitela, African People’s Socialist Party
(My posts are not intended as advice or professional assessments of any kind.) Never forget Excalibur.
- the virus 1st emerged between between Sep 9 & Oct 13
- spreading at a doubling time rate of 4.9 days
- Rt of #Delta is 0.8; Omicron is abt 2.5
- the Ro depends on population vax rate
Following up here with speculative estimates of the rate of spread of Omicron and a stab at how to apportion this rapid rate of spread between intrinsic transmissibility and immune escape.
@trvrb: Following up here with speculative estimates of the rate of spread of Omicron and a stab at how to apportion this rapid rate of spread between intrinsic transmissibility and immune escape. 1/18 Monday's post ...…
Louis Rossouw @lrossouw
· Dec 2
Comments on a UK specific report but has some good insights for all about thinking and decision making in this pandemic.
Quote Tweet
COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group
@COVID19actuary
· Dec 2
What does the recent House of Commons report on ‘Coronavirus lessons learned to date’ tell us about groupthink and cognitive bias in making crisis decisions? As the world seeks better understanding of a new variant we consider lessons learned in the UK. https://covidactuaries.org/2021/12/0...ion-making/…
Show this thread
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11 Louis Rossouw @lrossouw
· Dec 2
Cases are still rising in South Africa. Last night over 8 500 cases were reported. If we break the cases up by specimen received date and allow for some late reporting we probably had just under 6,000 cases on the 30th and the 7-day moving average is at 3,862.
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38 Show this thread Louis Rossouw @lrossouw
· Dec 2
Other provinces have lower case numbers but cases are rising rapidly with R in most provinces above 2 and certainly above 1.5 in all but Northern Cape where R is just touching 1 now.
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11 Louis Rossouw @lrossouw
· Dec 2
Details available here: https://unsupervised.online/static/covid-19/estimating_r_za.html
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