Omicron - COVID-19 Variant (B.1.1529) a "Variant of Concern" & BA.2 sub-variant, XE

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It appears the source is https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch

[silylene]

I believe NoyesJHumphrey obtained the graphic and plot from:

Benjamin Wellander (data set shown on Twitter): https://twitter.com/Benjaministern/s...198270464?s=20
and
Steve Miller who plotted the data: https://twitter.com/SteveMillerOC/st...867839499?s=20

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So many variables going on here. First, sequencing is supposed to be faster for SGTF samples than it was for Delta. Second, the Rt of omicron could be much higher than Delta resulting in many time more cases, but the risk to each individual case could be lower. Third, we have more immunity to COVID in SA from either vaccine or (sadly, more often) previous infection. All of these variables will chart a different course for Omicron as they each pull the graph in a different direction.

[sharon sanders]

Hmmm. It's days since the first sequenced case of Omicron.

https://twitter.com/NoyesJHumphrey/s...082393093?s=20

https://twitter.com/NoyesJHumphrey "If it's mild, why are the oxygen demands of Omicron slightly higher than those of Delta? That a significant chunk of those receiving oxygen are children should be lost on no one—this will be the most destructive wave yet."

Do you have a link for the graph? NoyesJHumphrey does not have a bio listed on his twit account so I can not evaluate his info or comments.

[silylene]

Hmmm. It's days since the first sequenced case of Omicron.

https://twitter.com/NoyesJHumphrey/s...082393093?s=20

https://twitter.com/NoyesJHumphrey "If it's mild, why are the oxygen demands of Omicron slightly higher than those of Delta? That a significant chunk of those receiving oxygen are children should be lost on no one—this will be the most destructive wave yet."

[silylene]

gsgs

natural immunity doesn't seem to help much against omicron showed a recent study.
I wonder whether there are lots of asymptomatic cases or cases with low infection,
not enough to show antibodies in blood.

I think what the data shows is that natural immunity doesn't seem to help much at preventing infection showed a recent study. The data may show that natural immunity *may* help with ameliorating disease severity. Two different outcomes.

Sharon, I agree!!

[sharon sanders]

You will see varying opinions and data on this site. We do not have a mantra. Real truth seeking requires a debate.

[gsgs]

natural immunity doesn't seem to help much against omicron showed a recent study.
I wonder whether there are lots of asymptomatic cases or cases with low infection,
not enough to show antibodies in blood.

[gsgs]

they had >80% of confirmed hospital cases in Tshwane , Nov14-27 admitted
for reasons other than COVID.
-------------------------
not delta, since delta is low and declining

[Emily]

In almost 10 days, omicron has almost completely replaced delta. Cases are in a younger age group and reported to be milder. (Still to be confirmed.) Prof. Vardas said about 10-20% of cases are sequenced. (Very expensive.)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iYZ46_tzD4o

Discussion | Identifying Omicron in COVID-19 tests

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Dec 5, 2021


eNCA
1.1M subscribers
Most people who now test for COVID-19 have been found to have the new Omicron variant. That's the discovery made my Lancet Laboratories. Head of Clinical Virology at Lancet Laboratories, Professor Eftyhia Vardas explains #eNCA Courtesy #DStv403

[silylene]

Sharon, I think the rapid COVID hospitalization increase (up 6x) are the result of Omicron infections, not a [unseen ??] wave of Delta. " Now, as many as 90% of the new cases in Gauteng are caused by it, according to Tulio de Oliveira, director of the KwaZulu-Natal Research Innovation and Sequencing Platform." LINK

I am guessing the reduced severity [I still question this 'fact'] could be the result that the vast majority of S. Africa has significant immunity in addition to the youthful age distribution. About 22% are fully vaccinated, and another 29% to 46% are seropositive depending on the location and demographic LINK1 LINK2 and presumably have some level of acquire immune response. So one could expect that a combined total of about 52 - 88% of the S. African population should be able to have at least some level of immune response which could ameliorate disease severity.

The US should have similar levels as S. Africa in the percentage of the population with some level of acquired immune response:
"In this repeated cross-sectional study that included 1 443 519 blood donation specimens from a catchment area representing 74% of the US population, estimated SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence weighted for differences between the study sample and general population increased from 3.5% in July 2020 to 20.2% for infection-induced antibodies and 83.3% for combined infection- and vaccine-induced antibodies in May 2021." LINK

Finally, I want to point out from a US perspective, there remain about 56 million citizens with neither any vaccination nor infection-induced antibodies. Omicron may prove to be quite severe impact on these 56 million people. Other nations also have Covid-naive cohorts which could be at higher severity risk.

I think it is too soon for the popular media-doctors to be publicly commenting on Omicron severity until the data is better understood, even if they sprinkle their opinions with 'maybe' and 'probably'. Frankly, the public does not hear or remember the 'maybes' and 'probablys', and the press headlines ignore these words, and social media misappropriates quotes out of context. If the media-doctors are wrong (again), this only harms the credibility of scientists and science reporting media.

[sharon sanders]

And yet, hospitalization in Gauten SA is up 6x compared to 2.5 weeks ago. So, what gives in this contradiction? (see the chart I posted yesterday in this thread for the real data)

There is this:

It may be Delta is still a real problem even with all the attention on Omicron?

[sharon sanders]

The hospitalizations could be Delta variant or leading admin medical advisors are wrong about Omicron looking "mild". When the president's medical advisor is interviewed on national television, it is pertinent news (even if he is wrong). We have been telling everyone to use at least two sources for their information and use their common sense since the beginning of this pandemic.

[silylene]

....Reports from South Africa, where it emerged and is becoming the dominant strain, suggest that hospitalization rates have not increased alarmingly....

And yet, hospitalization in Gauten SA is up 6x compared to 2.5 weeks ago. So, what gives in this contradiction? (see the chart I posted yesterday in this thread for the real data)

[Emily]

ADE is hard to prove scientifically, I think. With Omicron, we'd need to do antibody tests on the totally unvaccinated to see if they were immune naive to the virus. Then we would compare them to the vaccinated and the recovered. (Again antibody testing should be done on both.)