Discussion : my crystal ball.....

[Toaster2]

I am worried. B.1.351 (501Y.V2) evades part of the vaccines. In addition, in south africa previous infection DID NOT prevent infection with B.1.135 in the Novavax study. On addition, spreading of this one in S. Africa and P1 in Amazonia also suggests immjne evasion, given the high frequency of infections in the first wave. Assuming that B1.351 is inherently spreading faster than current variants (which i think, based on ACE2 affinity) but maybe not more efficient than B.1.1.7 the scenario we may see in the near future is the following: B1.1.7 takes over until around Q4 when vaccination is adequate, meaning that cases will rise until the end of summer. After that B1.351 takes over, because in spreading it may be not more efficient than B.1.1.7, but it will evade vaccine and B.1.1.7 immunity. Maybe severity may be lower in that winter 21-22 wave, but even that may not be the case.

Unfortunately this now seems a realistic projection.

[sharon sanders]

Is it possible that several global competing strains could essentially crowd out the more severe ones? Then we are left with various mild SARS-CoV-2 global strains that we all eventually become infected with (unless we hide in a cave for 4 years)?

[Vibrant62]

Given that the virus can transmit during the presymptomatic phase or during asymptomatic infections, where is the evolutionary pressure for the virus to become less virulent, except as a result of repeated infection and epitope cross immunity developing? In the case of China, the virus has some evolutionary pressure to become milder as the surveillance and isolation measures are extreme - so a milder virus that does not draw attention to itself has some advantage. In the US and UK and EU there is no such stringent monitoring and control measures in place, so why would the virus need to evolve in this way?

[Sally Furniss]

or in some areas of the world co-infection?

Extensive genomic sequencing shows
New Zealand had multiple introductions of the virus.

https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/...oa-new-zealand

[Toaster2]

These options are also possible. The only thing is that we currently do not see milder strains ns that as re more transmissible. But if that happens it is good news of course. And cocirculation can happen too. But if b.1.1.7 is even more transmissible than b.1.135 then the latter will start taking over when overall vaccine and infection induced immunity is getting widespread

[sharon sanders]

Admin note: I removed one comment from this thread that was to do with administration of the thread itself - not pertaining to the topic or any disease topic on the site.

[Vibrant62]

My concern is that the virus is showing us two things.

1.) It is not yet wholly adapted to human hosts, as evidenced by the fairly major changes in the UK, P1 and South African variants, all of which have amassed a fairly large number of mutations from the original strains.

2.) incomplete vaccination around the globe is simply setting up the environment for new strains to evolve to evade natural and vaccine generated immunity, in multiple locations and we will forever be playing catch up with vaccines.

We need to learn to live with this virus, and vaccines will be an invaluable tool - but I would suggest we will also need a) on the spot self tests for administration at points of entry to work, school, venues etc. Clear? Go in. Not? Go home and isolate and b) more self help measures in terms of immune system support, medications for newly diagnosed positive cases to prevent them progressing to severe disease, and c) efficient contact tracing and testing - all of these will be needed for the next few years until the generated epitope immunities reduce this virus to the level fo the common cold, which may take years to achieve.

I am pro vaccines and encouraged by the numbers that have been developed - but the thinking that these will be a 'be all and end all' panacea is unrealistic IMHO.

[bertrand789]

Vous lire est toujours un honneur . Vu le comportement imb?cile de bien des acteurs m?dicaux , j'ai recherch? la d?finition de la m?decine.

La m?decine au sens strict n'est que le traitement des maladies, mais on dit aussi que:

- la m?decine pr?ventive est le premier m?dicament,
- la m?decine clinique est le deuxi?me m?dicament
-la m?decine de r?adaptation est le troisi?me m?dicament.

https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%8C%BB%E5%AD%A6

Visiblement, pour la premi?re des trois, vu l'?tat du dossier vitamine D , il y a peu de personnes form?es...

je me demande qu'elle est la d?finition au niveau de l'O.M.S , car la pr?sentation des trois branches, je trouve cela p?dagogique ...

la fiche m?decine pr?ventive est de qualit? dans cette version :

https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E9%A0%90%E9%98%B2%E9%86%AB%E5%AD%B8

sachant que les chinois sont de gros fumeurs , je voulais voir les chiffres ...J'ai donc ?tait tr?s surpris des contenus.

Celle-ci est d?solante :

https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prophylaxie

j'en ai aussi lu d'autres, mais ...


Vu, ce que j'ai compris, de ces variants, je pense qu'aucun pays peut ne pas se sentir concerner , donc ce doit ?tre simple d'obtenir des consensus et au niveau de l'O.M.S et des discours d'une toute autre tenue ...

[Toaster2]

I agree. Micronutrients are essential for a normal function of the immune system. For preventing respiratory tract infections especially vitamin D, but also zinc, seems to be important. They are not toxic at normal levels, so even if they turn out not to help, no harm is done, they are still essential for bodily functions. And they are not expensive. So I am puzzled by the absence of the advice to take them just in case.

[Vibrant62]

I also agree. The data is pointing towards the probability that an early and efficient innate immune response is one of the main determining factors between the probability of mild disease vs serious disease. People need to feel self empowered in their own protection, especially as things move forward - if we want to get back to anything approaching 'normal' life. Annual vaccination alone wont be sufficient, and probably is unfeasible. I don't understand the hesitancy on behalf of regulators and governments.

Its a simple question of communications - for example 'ensuring your immune system is as healthy as possible will not protect you from catching Covid but it may help limit the severity of disease when you catch it. You can take the following measures to ensure your immune system is as healthy as it can be' then list factors such as sleep, exercise, and ensuring you have sufficiency in these key nutrients etc etc.

I understand that medics and regulators dont want people to go around as if they are invulnerable to infection, but its a simple question of communications as far I can see. Perhaps as the realisation dawns that this is going to be with us for the longer term - and as we understand the risk factors for Long Covid better (immune system health at time of infection probably key here, but research needed to confirm) I hope we will see something of a paradigm shift. If nothing else, it may make people less fearful - because economies cannot stay on pause indefinitely, and when people realise that vaccination alone is not going to bring about permanent immunity and an end to Covid, and/or for many there will be a very long wait before they can be vaccinated and/or annual vaccination will not be available to everyone, populations are going to need something more than just vaccines to achieve the confidence to go back to work and school etc.

[Toaster2]

And Selenium, vitamin C and A are also relevant, but maybe a little less for respiratory infections than Vitamin D and Zinc

[sharon sanders]

bump this

[Okieman]

Double posting this to both discussion threads. An article worth reading and passing along to others.

----------------------------------------------------------

Chilling trend: A longer, deadlier pandemic
Sam Baker

Mutated versions of the coronavirus threaten to prolong the pandemic, perhaps for years — killing more people and deepening the global economic crisis in the process.

The big picture: The U.S. and the world are in a race to control the virus before these variants can gain a bigger foothold. But many experts say they already expect things to get worse before they get better. And that also means an end to the pandemic may be getting further away.

• “It may take four to five years before we finally see the end of the pandemic and the start of a post-COVID normal,” Singapore’s education minister said last week, according to the Wall Street Journal.

<snip>

https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-va...c9f950a94.html

Okieman Comment: Finally, an article that pulls no punches on what we may be facing.

[sharon sanders]

US - If all indicators of current COVID-19 status are decreasing why did vaccinated President Biden sit 15 feet away and in huge White House dining room during interview? February 5, 2021

[Mary Wilson]

Dr. Fauci says it’s important to wear a mask even after getting the Covid vaccine. Here’s why

PUBLISHED THU, FEB 4 20215:31 PM EST
UPDATED THU, FEB 4 20218:29 PM EST
Noah Higgins-Dunn

... even if you’re one of the lucky few to have gotten a Covid-19 shot, it will be important to continue wearing a face covering until researchers can determine whether the vaccines prevent people from spreading the virus to others who aren’t vaccinated, White House health advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci said Thursday.

“Currently, we do not have enough data to be able to say with confidence that the vaccines can prevent transmission,” Fauci said in a tweet during an online Q&A session. “So even if vaccinated, you may still be able to spread the virus to vulnerable people.”

... Masks, combined with other measures like frequent hand washing and social distancing, have been a critical tool to suppress the spread of Covid-19, medical experts have maintained.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/04/dr-fauci-on-why-its-important-to-wear-a-mask-after-getting-your-covid-vaccine-.html

[kiwibird]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55967767

The Oxford-AstraZeneca Covid jab gives limited protection against mild disease caused by the South Africa variant, the firm said early trials had suggested.

It also said it had not yet fully determined whether the vaccine protects against severe disease caused by the more transmissible coronavirus variant.

The preliminary findings from a small study of more than 2,000 people have not yet been peer-reviewed.

Just watched an expert on BBC News from Harvard (apologies didn't get her name) who said that the pandemic could be around for another four or five years.

[kiwibird]

Dr Ingrid Katz - Harvard Global Health Institute.

[bertrand789]

une question pour la Patronne : Sharon

je souhaiterai l'ouverture d'un post pour permettre aux membres de s'exprimer sur un lien :

https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E5%86%A0%E7%8A%B6%E7%97%85%E6%AF%92%E7%97%85%E9%98%B4%E8%B0%8B%E8%AE%BA

vu ceci :

Le rapport continuait que tous les signataires de la d?claration affirmaient qu'il n'y avait pas de conflit d'int?r?ts. Mais en fait, Peter Daszak, le r?dacteur et l'h?te de cette d?claration publi?e dans The Lancet , a collabor? avec l'Institut de virologie de Wuhan pour publier plus de 20 articles au cours des quinze derni?res ann?es et a financ? les chauves-souris de l'Institut de virologie de Wuhan. Recherche sur les coronavirus. Ironiquement, le scientifique qui a des conflits d'int?r?ts et pr?tend que la nouvelle maladie ? coronavirus vient du laboratoire est une "th?orie du complot et de la pure b?tise" (th?orie du complot et pure b?tise). Il a ?t? nomm? par l' OMS pour diriger 10 personnes. une ?quipe d'experts s'est rendue ? Wuhan pour enqu?ter sur la source du virus ^[147] .



je suis un peu perdu , donc, je pose la question ?

[sharon sanders]

You can post comments about the WHO mission to the Wuhan lab here: https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/...te-of-virology If you want to document Daszak papers etc. ok...but we do not bash here. Post one sentence on your opinion and then links to support your opinion.

[bertrand789]

Merci,

en fait, ma question est un peu plus vaste et souhaite votre regard.

quid de la place des v?t?rinaires dans ce dossier ?

donc, quid de leur expertise sur la partie animale et alimentaire pr? et post d?claration O.M.S au niveau de la Chine , puis de l'Asie , puis du reste ?

cela existe une communication officielle chinoise de cette corporation ?

https://www.anses.fr/fr/content/activit%C3%A9s-internationales-de-lagence-nationale-du-m%C3%A9dicament-v%C3%A9t%C3%A9rinaire

je dis cela , car il parait qu'il en manque plus d'1 million :

Ainsi, d'apr?s Xiong Fuqiang, chef adjoint du Parti de l'Ecole de m?decine v?t?rinaire de l'Universit? agricole de Nanjing, jusqu'? 10 000 ?tudiants sortent dipl?m?s dans cette sp?cialit? chaque ann?e en Chine, mais il manque encore plus d'1 million de v?t?rinaires.

http://french.peopledaily.com.cn/Economie/n3/2017/0830/c31355-9262223.html

[Toaster2]

Behind a paywall. I remember the duscussions with Henry Niman. The conclusion was probably no recombination in bird flu.

but what are the implications for recombination of Covid ? Can SarsCov2 also recombine, and with which other (corona) viruses ?