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  • #76



    MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis

    Dec 31, 2020
    UPDATE #COVID19 new variant VOC202012/01 in England

    VOC growing rapidly

    Transmission advantage for VOC of 0.4 to 0.7 difference in reproduction number compared to non-VOC variant

    VOC affecting a greater proportion of under 20s

    Report https://imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-42-sars-cov-2-variant/…


    11m
    Prof
    @axel_gandy
    on
    @BBCRadio4
    this morning speaking about the latest report on the new #SARSCoV2 variant of concern in England

    https://bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000qnj6… (from 48:15)
    @imperialcollege
    Quote Tweet

    MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis

    Dec 31, 2020
    UPDATE #COVID19 new variant VOC202012/01 in England

    VOC growing rapidly

    Transmission advantage for VOC of 0.4 to 0.7 difference in reproduction number compared to non-VOC variant

    VOC affecting a greater proportion of under 20s

    Report https://imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-in...ariant/…

    Comment


    • #77

      Doctors warn intensive care units are filling up with younger, fitter patients as new Covid-19 variant spreads

      Almost 6,000 more Covid patients were admitted to hospitals in England in the eight days from Christmas Day to January 2, latest official figures show.
      By Paul Gallagher
      January 3, 2021 4:43 pm
      Updated January 3, 2021 4:45 pm

      Intensive care doctors are warning the public their units are filling up with younger patients than during the first wave of coronavirus cases amid the surge in hospital admissions.

      Rupert Pearse, an intensive care consultant at the Royal London Hospital, said: “The situation in London is now much worse than the first wave and still deteriorating. Sad to see long queues of ambulances outside the hospital where I work. Almost all my patients are less than 60 years old and previously fit. If you think this disease can’t touch you, then think again.”

      <snip>

      Almost 6,000 more Covid patients were admitted to hospitals in England in the eight days from Christmas Day to January 2, latest official figures show.


      Comment


      • #78

        med-Rxiv - SARS−CoV−2 Variant Under Investigation 202012/01 has more than twofold replicative advantage

        Comment


        • gsgs
          gsgs commented
          Editing a comment
          how could SARS2 have missed that advantage for so long ?
          How many other advantages are there lurking in its genome

      • #79

        Denmark: Statens Serum Institute (SSI) Estimate Of COVID Variant B.1.1.7 Growth

        Comment


        • #80

          Neil Ferguson: UK's Covid situation is 'bleak' as control measures may not work http://dlvr.it/Rq1hSG
          --------------------------------

          Luxembourg: 2% (3/141) Dec20-Dec29
          ---------------------------------
          I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
          my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

          Comment


          • Emily
            Emily commented
            Editing a comment
            "Speaking about the long-term outlook for the pandemic, Professor Ferguson said: "Looking forward we’re going to be living with coronavirus indefinitely, we’re never going to eliminate it from the human population, it will evolve, and we may need to regularly update our vaccines.""

          • gsgs
            gsgs commented
            Editing a comment
            but we may find antivirals. We may understand the surges and how to prevent them.
            It may become less virulent (mutation, immunity)

        • #81
          https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/statu...19003278389249

          https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/0...ction-tracker/

          https://watermark.silverchair.com/ci...1MeBf0V_mcQ9QA

          SARS-CoV-2 antibodies (using the Roche anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgM/IgG assay detecting antibodies targeting viral nucleocapsid ‘N’ antigen) were detectable on 6 occasions between the 4th June 2020 and 13th November 2020 with no evidence of antibody waning seen.
          and yet this case was reinfected with the new B117 variant. Should imagine this is very bad news for the immunisation program - with the current vaccine. The vaccine program will remove the old - less virulent - strain from the circulating program and lead to a higher percentage of the B117 variant - or will it just ensure fewer people are infected and end up in hospital. Either way - people who have been vaccinated should still be vulnerable to the new variant.
          "The only security we have is our ability to adapt."

          Comment


          • kiwibird
            kiwibird commented
            Editing a comment
            We have detected a confirmed case of reinfection with SARS-CoV-2 with the second episode due to
            the ‘new variant’ VOC-202012/01 of lineage B.1.1.7. The initial infection occurred in the first wave of
            the pandemic in the UK and was a mild illness. 8 months later, during the second wave of the
            pandemic in the UK reinfection with the ‘new variant’ VOC-202012/01 was confirmed and caused a
            critical illness.

          • kiwibird
            kiwibird commented
            Editing a comment
            Confirmed Reinfection with SARS-CoV-2 Variant VOC-202012/01
            David Harrington, Beatrix Kele, Spiro Pereira, Xose Couto-Parada, Anna Riddell, Suzanne
            Forbes, Hamish Dobbie, Teresa Cutino-Moguel
            Barts Health NHS Trust
            London, UNITED KINGDOM
            Corresponding author:
            David Harrington

            Thank you to the authors of this paper.

        • #82
          A mutation found in fast-spreading coronavirus variants does not negate the Covid-19 vaccine from Pfizer and BioNTech, a new study indicates.


          In the study, scientists engineered a version of the virus to include the mutation called N501Y. The mutation is found in variants that seem to transmit faster than other forms of the virus, including one first identified in the United Kingdom that is now spreading in other countries, including the United States.

          The scientists then compared how well blood taken from 20 people who had received the vaccine fended off the mutated form of the virus versus an earlier form. Their finding: there was “no reduction in neutralization activity against the virus” with the mutation, they wrote.
          "The only security we have is our ability to adapt."

          Comment


          • #83
            I don't understand why they have to piecemeal engineer the new variant. Why not test the actual circulating virus since that is what we need to know about? They could do the single mutation testing later though essentially that is more dangerous since they are creating new viruses. Just because it has only one of the 8 mutations does not mean it is less dangerous.

            Comment to the paper:
            Rapidly spreading variants of SARS-CoV-2 that have arisen in the United Kingdom and South Africa share the spike N501Y substitution, which is of particular concern because it is located in the viral receptor binding site for cell entry and increases binding to the receptor (angiotensin converting enzyme 2). We generated isogenic N501 and Y501 SARS-CoV-2. Sera of 20 participants in a previously reported trial of the mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccine BNT162b2 had equivalent neutralizing titers to the N501 and Y501 viruses. ### Competing Interest Statement X.X., V.D.M., and P.-Y.S. have filed a patent on the reverse genetic system. K.A.S., M.C., D.C., and P.R.D. are employees of Pfizer and may hold stock options. X.P., J.Z., C.R.F.G., H.X., and P.-Y.S. received compensation from Pfizer to perform the neutralization assay.

            kunikoinoue3 days ago
            The conclusion of this study is not strong with only in vitro binding
            assay. The key problem is that they only use one mutation 501Y. The UK
            B117 variant has 8 mutation including another key mutation 69-70del: which was found in strains that eluded the immune response in some immunocompromised patients.
            To understand in clinical how severe COVID variant escape from
            antibodies, Please look at UK paper published on Biorxiv 1-2 week
            before . COVID variant spike deletion H69/V70 and D796H mutations
            conferred reduced susceptibility to the convalescent plasma (CP) and
            sera from multiple donors.
            Curiously, the authors need investigate How many vaccinated people in their July Trial
            were infected COVID including B117?
            _____________________________________________

            Ask Congress to Investigate COVID Origins and Government Response to Pandemic.

            i love myself. the quietest. simplest. most powerful. revolution ever. ---- nayyirah waheed

            "...there’s an obvious contest that’s happening between different sectors of the colonial ruling class in this country. And they would, if they could, lump us into their beef, their struggle." ---- Omali Yeshitela, African People’s Socialist Party

            (My posts are not intended as advice or professional assessments of any kind.)
            Never forget Excalibur.

            Comment


            • #84
              German 4-day R[t] went :
              0.66, 0.61, 0.77, 1.15, 1.46, 1.52 in the last 6 days
              despite hard lockdown since Dec.13 also maybe a surge in Spain, and in several African countries
              I never saw such a thing

              almost no actual virological testing in Germany.
              Denmark gives 0.9%,1.9%,2.9% weekly B117 , next update in a few days


              ----------------------------
              London has 3330000 confirmed positives in this wave so far , 3.8% of its population
              to compare : USA had 15.3M confirmed positives in this wave , 4.6% of its population ,
              I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
              my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

              Comment


              • #85
                bump this

                Comment


                • #86



                  Kai Kupferschmidt

                  @kakape
                  ?
                  2m
                  New data shows #B117 still expanding in Denmark: Last weeks of 2020: 0.4% 0.8% 2.0% 2.4% First week of 2021 (initial data): 3.6% (Full report: https://covid19genomics.dk/statistics, h/t
                  @MadsAlbertsen85
                  )


                  Comment


                  • #87
                    groan if proven to be true.....


                    snip

                    A new variant of Covid-19 that emerged in south-east England last year and spread around the world may be more deadly than coronavirus in circulation in the first wave of the epidemic, Boris Johnson has said.

                    Scientists on the government’s New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (Nervtag) have concluded that the new variant, named B117, may increase the death rate by a multiple of 1.3.

                    The increased lethality of the variant was confirmed by the prime minister at the No 10 press briefing on Friday.

                    Four teams of researchers at Imperial, the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Public Health England and Exeter University assessed the variant’s lethality by comparing death rates among those who tested positive for the new variant with those who were infected with older variants.

                    more...

                    https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...box=1611335889


                    Comment


                    • #88
                      UK: NERVTAG paper on COVID-19 variant of concern B.1.1.7 (https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2021/01/uk-nervtag-paper-on-covid-19-variant-of.html) https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-RpDuNygLMR8/YAsc4InKprI/AAAAAAAAx-M/00QzO2Tib2MLK2q6273O7RRbQZC4Ds1VwCLcBGAsYHQ/w372-h210/Boris%2BJohnson%2BPress%2BConference.png (https://www.youtube.com/wa


                      A regular round-up of the latest coronavirus news, plus insight, features and interviews from New Scientist about the covid-19 pandemic

                      The government was briefed by researchers in the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group, who are assessing the data on the variant, which appears to be about 30 per cent more deadly. Researchers at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and at Imperial College London who analysed data on the new variant concluded it is between 29 and 36 per cent more lethal, whereas researchers at the University of Exeter put the figure at 91 per cent. The UK’s chief scientific adviser, Patrick Vallance, said the evidence on lethality “is not yet strong”, adding: “but it is obviously a concern”.
                      Read more: https://www.newscientist.com/article...#ixzz6kJEpfo8E
                      "The only security we have is our ability to adapt."

                      Comment


                      • #89
                        more groan...I hope I am really screwing up the math.....

                        I saw a media article a couple of days ago where doctors were complaining that the age group was younger so I thought I would check it out.

                        from National Institute of Demographic Studies (INED) who says their sources are official government numbers from various countries. link

                        According to their excel spreadsheets:



                        COVID-19 deaths weeks 1 through 38 (2020) in the UK in age group 44-64 = 5,049 / 38 weeks = 133 average deaths in the 44-64 age group per week

                        COVID-19 deaths week 1 (2021) in the UK, with the emergence of B.1.1.7, in age group 44-64 = 657 deaths in the 44-64 age group for week 1.



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                        Comment


                        • #90
                          Your math is probably good, I compared it to the proportion of US cases from this source https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/c...ekly/index.htm


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