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Discussion thread VI - COVID-19 (new coronavirus)

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  • Discussion thread VI - COVID-19 (new coronavirus)

    Interesting that the Astra Zeneca trial was paused due to transverse myelitis. There have been several recorded cases of this occurring with Covid-19 - https://casereports.bmj.com/content/13/8/e236720

    This can sometimes be attributed to B12 deficiency. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/11965427/ and I note this very interesting article - https://www.nutraingredients-asia.co...older-patients

    Obviously more studies needed... but as the study stated ( https://www.nutraingredients-asia.co...aign=copyright) there were no adverse side effects to the supplementation....
    “The only security we have is our ability to adapt."

  • #2
    The trial has restarted. The NY Times said it was transverse myelitis but there has been no official conformation due to patient confidentiality regulations. It is rare (1 in 1,000,000) but has been found in both COVID patients and after vaccination. These things are going to happen in large scale trials, to get one so soon could just be luck but if another case pops up then it may get stopped for a lot longer or closed.

    Comment


    • #3
      is it specific to the AstraSeneca vaccine or may it occur with the other vaccines as well ?
      I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
      my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

      Comment


      • #4
        This was the second neurological event. First one was MS and they said it wasn't related to the vaccine, though I think pre-existing neurological disease was an exclusion for trial participants, so the disease only manifested after the vaccine.
        A monkey adenovirus is the vector for the vaccine.
        https://multiple-sclerosis-research....complications/
        "The yellow fever vaccine is probably the most common cause of vaccine associated TM. However, it was a common adverse event with the original rabies vaccine that was cultured and isolated from monkey neuronal cells. Fortunately, this is not how the rabies vaccine is made anymore and the incidence of TM is now much less common after rabies vaccination."
        _____________________________________________

        Ask Congress to Investigate COVID Origins and Government Response to Pandemic H.R. 834

        “‘i love myself.’ the quietest. simplest. most powerful. revolution ever.” ---- nayyirah waheed

        (My posts are not intended as advice or professional assessments of any kind.)
        Never forget Excalibur.

        Comment


        • #5
          https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020...ng-explain-why
          The pandemic appears to have spared Africa so far. Scientists are struggling to explain why
          By Linda NordlingAug. 11, 2020 , 3:15 PM
          A theory - Africa suffers 90% of the world's malaria burden. HC/HCQ and artemisinin compound use is high there.
          https://www.sciencedirect.com/scienc...01971220306615
          _____________________________________________

          Ask Congress to Investigate COVID Origins and Government Response to Pandemic H.R. 834

          “‘i love myself.’ the quietest. simplest. most powerful. revolution ever.” ---- nayyirah waheed

          (My posts are not intended as advice or professional assessments of any kind.)
          Never forget Excalibur.

          Comment


          • gsgs
            gsgs commented
            Editing a comment
            a higher deathrate is only seen in South-Africa.
            But South Africa is also different, more European
            Deaths are also low in Malaria-free countries like Kenya,Egypt
            A high amount of travel may induce cases nd deaths ?!
            (see the google+apple "mobility-charts)

            Marocco,Libya,Tunesia only now get a wave, deaths may still rise
            Namibia has a little more deaths
            Distance from the equator seems to correlate with Malaria and with COVID-deaths in Africa

            http://magictour.free.fr/mfafr.GIF

          • Emily
            Emily commented
            Editing a comment
            Interesting, gsgs. Many mysteries there.

          • flatlander
            flatlander commented
            Editing a comment
            Don't forget the age factor in African countries. I think it was in a WHO call that I heard that something like 50% of the population was under the age of 18(might have been higher). So age may also be a factor on deaths, along with all the others mentioned.

        • #6
          Hi! I grabbed a couple of posts to start this new discussion thread as we go into cold and flu season. The last thread had over 400 posts.

          I have almost finished re-formatting the forum. All of the statistic threads were overwhelming the site. They were great at the beginning to track the progression of COVID-19 but now those numbers are less and less reliable - still good to consider, but not the last word. My biggest concern is that since the economic havoc caused by this pandemic and the related lock downs are monumental, governments will be incentivized to down play the numbers moving forward. Some numbers that are not realistic are provided by China and North Korea, for example.

          I think some countries make a good faith effort at counting but, realistically, many countries do not have the public health capacity to be accurate. Emily made a mention about Africa's generally low numbers above. Well..I just don't believe their numbers. South Africa sits at 648,214 cases including 15,427 deaths as of September 12 link. How can the rest of Africa have such relatively low numbers? Is it because of widespread anti-malaria drug use? Or no testing of asymptomatic people? Or lack of capacity to test?

          I would like us to concentrate on the news moving forward. I am concerned about the hot spots like the US, India, Brazil, for example, so I am finding pertinent news and adding the government (or reliable media) numbers for reference. Please feel free to start new threads as these google better. I am making stickys for links to various reliable sources so you can easily add stats to any post if you want.

          I am also looking for re-emergence or undisclosed hot spots. We need to look for what does not fit.

          Also later today, I am going to move our science library ahead of the geographical tracking forums. I know everyone mostly wants the tracking but - please - PLEASE - read the science. Some of the papers conflict. Read both views. A lot can be learned by reading conflicting reports. Always question.

          Thanks everyone!

          We are with you.

          Comment


          • Emily
            Emily commented
            Editing a comment
            Sharon, I know you could be right about undercounting in Africa. You spotted this thing brewing in China first. I hope that there might be some real resistance in Africa. Might not be cholorquine since this article, https://www.frontiersin.org/articles...020.01476/full, says it isn't being used much there now due to malaria resistance. They are still using artemisinin compounds and those sound safer that chloroquine and antibiotics. I know a cancer patient who used quite a bit for awhile. (Not effective for that in this case.)

            https://www.frontiersin.org/articles...020.01476/full

        • #7
          gs
          Unknown. If it is vaccine related it could be a reaction to the chimp adenovirus or to its spike protein payload. If the later then it could be common to many of the other vaccine candidates. This adenovirus was selected because it is unlikely to have been encountered by humans. Ad5 is being used in some vaccines, which is a human adenovirus for which there is a high antibody prevalence, but this has the advantage of a track record as a delivery system. I have also heard it is thought to provoke a better immune response - as I understand it the adenovirus acts as the adjuvant. The Russian vaccine uses ad5 for the first dose but switches to another adenovirus for the second, to avoid a host immune attack on the delivery system.

          Comment


          • gsgs
            gsgs commented
            Editing a comment
            According to @HildaBast
            the @AstraZeneca #SARSCoV2 #vaccine trail that stopped due to 1 case
            severe spinal inflammation, then restarted, has had 2 more cases.
            And severe headaches: "unspecified number of 'unexplained neurological symptoms'
            ...” #COVID19
            https://absolutelymaybe.plos.org/2020/09/11/pha
            --------------------------------------------
            old thread here:
            https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/...onavirus/page8
            vi is good, iv was also good : I just type vi in the firefox url-line and it finds this thread
            --not. too many other vi , virus,vienna,virginia,virological
            ---------------------------------------------------

            On Sep07, BNT/Pfizer had 25,189 participants
            On Sep04, the Cove trial (NIH/Moderna) had 21,411 participantsOn September 11, 23,497 –
            Last edited by gsgs; September 15, 2020, 01:00 AM.

        • #8
          big, (more steep) increase in 16 out of 44 European countries in the last (..10) days.
          Others are up since several weeks, Except Serbia,Sweden,Iceland,Poland,Greece,Kosovo,Cyprus
          This can't be coincidence.
          Is it weather ?
          http://magictour.free.fr/e-0913.GIF
          (scroll down for the list of 20 candidates)
          I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
          my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

          Comment


          • Vibrant62
            Vibrant62 commented
            Editing a comment
            What are the UV intensities / humidities in these areas at this time of year? I wonder about reduced natural vitamin D production affecting infection rates when UV intensity drops, along with increasing air pollution (which is affected by weather and humidity) which in turn is implicated in infectivity, and finally temperature insofar as people crowd indoors for AC in very hot weather, or when it is wet and cold... Right now Sweden, Iceland, Serbia is still fairly warm (not too hot nor cold) but that will change very shortly, but I would expect UV intensity to be dropping - but then again they add Vit D to foodstuffs. Certainly the very large observational study out of Israel does add weight to the Vitamin D argument .. It is pre-print and not yet peer reviewed, but the methodology looks sound https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....04.20188268v1

          • gsgs
            gsgs commented
            Editing a comment
            I found UV-index here :
            https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weat...Y=2020&WEEK=20

            click history, 20 weeks , go (or such)
            they also have temp.,rel.humidity

        • #9
          Jose Gefaell's update for Spain from Sep11
          https://www.dropbox.com/s/c5wfhmr0w2...t2020.pdf?dl=0

          it's going down, deaths and hospitalisations are still low. "this is not a wave"
          I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
          my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

          Comment


          • gsgs
            gsgs commented
            Editing a comment
            more sidewards with the weekend-data. But downtrend since some weeks in Aragon,Madrid.
            Sidewards with lockdown n Cataluna.
            Daily updates here :
            https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesional...6_COVID-19.pdf
            [in the link change 206 ...207...208 , daily)
            -----------------------------------------
            France positive-rate is down the last days for age 0-39, >39 is still up
            https://twitter.com/redouad
            -----------------------------------------
            Last edited by gsgs; September 15, 2020, 12:51 AM.

        • #10
          Préalable, c'est une question de droit à 250 000 € potentiel .

          "La jeune femme, une Américaine de 26 ans, travaille à l'Edelweiss Lodge and Resort, un centre de vacances et de loisirs des forces américaines, qui n'est accessible qu'aux anciens soldats américains et à leurs familles. Vingt-quatre collègues ou vacanciers y ont déjà été testés positifs, selon la Süddeutsche Zeitung."

          https://www.leparisien.fr/faits-dive...20-8383956.php

          Si cela entre, dans le cadre du forum , je souhaiterai savoir ce qui se passerait dans d'autres pays , dont les U.S.A ?

          Il a été abordé indirectement ce type de dossier notamment sur des lieux de stationnement de bases actives , mais là ; c'est un centre de vacance ...

          Comment


          • #11
            Some nice detail here. You can compare fatality rate for patients vs staff. This may be second wave since this county definately has cases in the Spring. I think this is the first hospital outbreak. If it has spread to their hospital south of there, that would be the first hospital outbreak in that county from what I heard on the radio.

            https://kitsappublichealth.org/Commu...CaseReport.pdf
            _____________________________________________

            Ask Congress to Investigate COVID Origins and Government Response to Pandemic H.R. 834

            “‘i love myself.’ the quietest. simplest. most powerful. revolution ever.” ---- nayyirah waheed

            (My posts are not intended as advice or professional assessments of any kind.)
            Never forget Excalibur.

            Comment


            • #12



              FluTrackers.com
              @FluTrackers

              2h

              It appears twitter is engaging in massive censorship.

              We are going re-evaluate our participation on this platform.

              We do not need twitter.

              While we are considering - please see our main site & click on LATEST POSTS.

              https://flutrackers.com/forum/

              Take care everyone!

              Comment


              • Emily
                Emily commented
                Editing a comment
                The censorship creates more polarization. Pretty soon everything other than what is acceptable to the corporate media ends up on a far right or far left site that has the funds to keep afloat. You get a lot of propaganda or at least agenda on those sites on top of what you are interested in. IMO it is counter-productive to censor.

              • sharon sanders
                sharon sanders commented
                Editing a comment
                Hey Gert! - Sure, please link to FluTrackers. It is easy to link to us by using the "Tweet" button on the left column. Anyone can link a FluTrackers post to Twitter if they have an account there.

              • Gert van der Hoek
                Gert van der Hoek commented
                Editing a comment
                OK, that's clear then, thanks. .

            • #13
              you can block users or generally restrict, who can reply.
              (I didn't try that, but I saw it)
              To circumvent censorship, you can link to FT-threads, where you post the critical things

              even if you don;t post at twitter, it's still useful to follow others who you appreciate

              I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
              my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

              Comment


              • Emily
                Emily commented
                Editing a comment
                Yes, there are some nice scientists, etc, with insight to share on Twitter. If you don't want to have an account, you can use twitter.com/search and browse a topic and find people you like. Then you should be able to follow their posts.

            • #14
              Spain,France are maybe just at the start of the wave, that they may get 50000 cases per day in 3 weeks,
              similar to Israel,Czech, etc.
              The cases-by-onset charts, which show a decline in the last weeks, are very incomplete.
              The deaths are being corrected , 332,383,430 the last days for the deaths 8-14 days ago = date of death (not date of report).
              So it's redoubling every 6 days, 1000 per weeks currently. could be 10000 in 3 weeks , worse as wave1
              {I'm not sure yet, will compare with France)

              The peaks in Aragon,Madrid were only temporary, it;s going up again.
              Cataluna may avoid it with lockdown.

              https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesional...9_COVID-19.pdf

              ------------------------
              Ahh, Israel with 8461 cases yesterday, and lockdown. Population = 8.7M ,
              so at that rate it would give >300000 cases in USA on a single day
              Last edited by gsgs; September 17, 2020, 08:29 PM.
              I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
              my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

              Comment


              • gsgs
                gsgs commented
                Editing a comment
                not to sound too pessimistic here -- there are some bad signs, but I still consider it likely
                that the hospitalisations and deaths will be much lower (<50%) in this wave in
                ITA,SPA,FRA,GBR,NLD,BEL .
                It;s a mystery why they had so many deaths in wave 1 , not seen elsewhere in EU,AS,AF,OZ
                except Sweden

                Spain update by Jose Gefaell ("no 2nd wave in Spain") probably tomorrow

              • gsgs
                gsgs commented
                Editing a comment
                here is the Spain update by Jose Gefaell :
                https://www.dropbox.com/s/yoad7xxlo9...t2020.pdf?dl=0

              • bertrand789
                bertrand789 commented
                Editing a comment
                il se fait beaucoup de choses , mais cela n'est pas dit...

            • #15
              Drosten in NDR-podcast still seems to think, that the deaths
              in Europe are going to increase a lot
              > but the virus must
              > first join the older age cohorts
              > redistribute. And that takes many weeks. And
              > then they have to come to the hospital first
              > and ultimately have a difficult course. Also
              > that will take more weeks. D.

              {also tlking about Africa, Kenia+S.Africa }

              https://www.ndr.de/nachrichten/info/coronaskript226.pdf
              in German, can be translated with google, but not all in one chunk, afaik ?!?
              I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
              my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

              Comment

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