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Discussion thread VI - COVID-19 (new coronavirus)

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  • sharon sanders
    replied
    I am making public my responses to all inquires while maintaining total confidentiality. Yesterday someone wrote to me about the COVID-19 vaccines.

    NOT MEDICAL ADVICE. IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS ABOUT COVID-19, VACCINES, ETC., CONTACT YOUR MEDICAL PRACTITIONER.

    -----------------------------------------------------------

    I share your concerns, not only about vaccines, but about all medicine. It seems there is no "free ride" - there are always side effects and complications to consider.

    I have no idea what the medium and long term effects of any of the COVID-19 vaccines may be. I guess we will find out over time.

    As to people's reaction to your decision....well...everyone has a right to their own decision. If you do not want to take the vaccine for valid concerns, others have the right to react for their own valid reasons. When I was still wearing masks outside, I got plenty of ugly stares. I was not making any political statement. I am high risk. A couple of times people were not nice to me and I felt compelled to tell them that I wear a mask because I am high risk. Then their attitude changed toward me. I got the vaccine but I completely respect someone else's decision not to take it. I do not wear a mask outside now because I am fully vaccinated and Florida's humid and sunny weather is very powerful this time of year. I still stand a few feet away, generally.

    Vaccines are not 100% effective and people should not think that just because they got the shot they are 100% protected. Everyone still needs to be aware of world and local events. I have no idea what the COVID-19 variants may mean for the future.

    Just as new antibiotic resistant bacteria strains have developed in recent years, new viruses emerge too. I am very careful when I get a cut now. In past years I would not rush to wash the cut and apply a salve. Now I stop what I am doing and I take care of the injury within minutes. Same with viruses. Protect yourself with the best means that you consider effective for you.

    Stay safe.

    Wishing you all the best.

    Leave a comment:


  • GardenSpider
    commented on 's reply
    Thank you. Next time I will give it a full read!

  • bertrand789
    commented on 's reply
    I think I remember that we have soldiers in maneuver with the Hindus on the one hand and on the other hand many diplomats are walking everywhere, including New York, right?

  • Pathfinder
    commented on 's reply
    Thank you for reposting this. This BBC article is excellent and deserves to be read in full.

    Here's more:
    ...
    Instead, Sars disappeared as abruptly as it arrived. By January 2004, there were just a handful of cases – and by the end of month, the last suspected natural infection was announced. Oddly, while “patient zero” describes the first known person to be infected with a virus, there is no equivalent label for the last ever person to catch it in the wild. But this would arguably apply to a 40-year-old man with the family name of “Liu” from the southern city of Guangzhou. (There was another outbreak a couple of months later, when it is thought to have escaped from a Beijing research lab – twice).

    So what happened?

    In a nutshell, we got lucky. According to Sarah Cobey, an epidemiologist at the University of Chicago, Sars was driven to extinction by a combination of sophisticated contact-tracing and the quirks of the virus itself.

    When patients with Sars got sick, they got very sick. The virus had a staggeringly high fatality rate –almost one in five patients died – but this meant that it was relatively easy to identify those who were infected, and quarantine them. There was no extra spread from people without symptoms, and as a bonus, Sars took a relatively long time to incubate before it became contagious, which gave contact-tracers extra time to find anyone who might be infected before they could pass it on.

    “But also governments and institutions acted really fast,” says Cobey.
    ...

  • Okieman
    replied
    Australia Tells Its Citizens in India Amid Covid Crisis: Don’t Come Home


    Critics condemned the move to temporarily bar Australians, including children, as unnecessarily harsh, a violation of citizenship principles and a cultural double standard. Officials say the policy is necessary.

    snip

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/03/w...ravel-ban.html

    --------------------------

    It is not what governments say that is important to watch, it is what they do.

    Leave a comment:


  • bertrand789
    replied
    Funny,
    No charter flight for Australia players at this moment: CA Chief Hockley
    https://www.hindustantimes.com/crick...038826063.html

    For those who bake their bread and do not understand the marketting rules of distribution policies

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U5Iq4S8bHn4

    https://www.arte.tv/fr/videos/086138...on-transforme/

    Leave a comment:


  • bertrand789
    replied
    What put me in a bad mood was the inventory of the WHO vaccination programs for adults, especially for tetanus.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tetanus
    https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E7%A0...82%B7%E9%A2%A8
    I then looked at the one of the influenzas
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza
    https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E6%B5...84%9F%E5%86%92

    This is an important subject for me, because we put pressure on animal producers, calling them often offensive terms.
    https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antibiotique

    And now we want to add the coronaviruses.

    It seems urgent to me to become a little serious: the mismanagement that cannot be an objective. We are told this morning: we will live with:
    Emmanuel Macron assumes the choice to "live with" the Covid-19
    https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/artic...8875_3244.html

    https://news.google.com/search?q=p%C...R&ceid=FR%3Afr

    If globalization is that, it will not please for long ... If the research on the causes, with for some a goal of penal and or financial accountability put the brakes, it must stop. As in the case of mad cow disease:
    https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crise_..._cases_map.PNG
    https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crise_...0crise%20de%20 la%20vache,de%20ce%20type%20de%20viande.

    Il faut maintenant des solutions mondiales , car le problème de par le comportement indigne des politiques, est mondial .

    Leave a comment:


  • GardenSpider
    replied
    Originally posted by Pathfinder View Post
    This article was written in September 2020

    The deadly viruses that vanished without trace

    By Zaria Gorvett
    ...
    Like its close relative Covid-19, Sars had many of the necessary qualities for world domination – it was an RNA virus, meaning it was able to evolve rapidly, and it was spread through droplets expelled when breathing, which are hard to avoid. At the time, many experts were concerned that the virus could cause devastation on the same level as the HIV crisis, or even the 1918 flu pandemic, which infected a third of the world’s population and killed 50 million.

    Instead, Sars disappeared as abruptly as it arrived.
    ...
    Unfortunately this situation is extremely unusual. Other than Sars, only two other viruses have ever been driven to extinction on purpose – smallpox and rinderpest, which affects cattle. “It’s not trivial. It’s really very difficult when you have a virus that’s well adapted,” says Stanley Perlman, a microbiologist at the University of Iowa.
    ...
    “Sars went away because there's no other obvious host,” says Perlman. Sars is thought to have made the leap to humans via a palm civet, a tree-dwelling jungle mammal that’s considered a delicacy in China. Perlman points out that the virus couldn’t just retreat back to this species, because they aren’t commonly infected – the individual animal that gave it to a human was probably one of very few which were infected, and may have caught it directly from a bat.

    The same cannot be said for Covid-19... “With Covid-19, the reservoir is now us,” says Perlman. In fact, it’s become so much of a human virus that scientists have begun to wonder if it will spread the other way around – from humans to wildlife, in a kind of “reverse spillover”, if you will. This would make it even harder to stamp out.

    This brings us to another possible scenario, which involves viruses that exist continuously in people. While they may well be with our species forever, it turns out individual lineages of virus vanish remarkably regularly.
    ...
    It turns out that anyone who died before 1893 will never have been infected with any of the influenza A strains that exist today. That’s because every flu virus that existed in humans until about 120 years ago has gone extinct. The strain that caused the 1918 pandemic has also disappeared, as has the one that led to the 1957 avian flu outbreak, which killed up to 116,000 people in the US, and the type of flu that was circulating in 2009, before swine flu emerged.
    ...
    https://www.bbc.com/future/article/2...and-go-extinct

    The article states that "Instead, Sars disappeared as abruptly as it arrived." But that is not true and I think it's important to understand and reinforce why it "went away."

    SARS-1 infected about 8,000 people and killed roughly 800. But it SARS-1 didn't disappear on its own. It was due to the hard work of professionals in the field of medicine and science who were finally able to put SARS down. There were literally hundreds if not thousands of people engaged in an epic coordinated effort across the world and importantly from China to Canada who worked tirelessly to contain SARS-1. They accomplished this through endless contact tracing and isolating of people with symptoms. One key difference between SARS-1 and SARS-2 is that people who had SARS-1 were not contagious until they began showing symptoms which made them much easier to find, isolate and run contact traces on.

    Here is a quote from https://theconversation.com/the-orig...he-same-138177
    "Why did the original Sars epidemic come to end? Well, SARS-CoV-1 did not burn itself out. Rather, the outbreak was largely brought under control by simple public health measures. Testing people with symptoms (fever and respiratory problems), isolating and quarantining suspected cases, and restricting travel all had an effect.

    SARS-CoV-1 was most transmissible when patients were sick, and so by isolating those with symptoms, you could effectively prevent onward spread. Nearly everybody on the planet would remain susceptible to Sars in the decades following its disappearance."

    Leave a comment:


  • GardenSpider
    replied
    (Opps, reposted below. I forgot to quote the article I was commenting on. I thought it was important to clarify that SARS-1 did not "just disappear.")

    Leave a comment:


  • Vibrant62
    commented on 's reply
    This is what I am concerned about. I hope these findings are in error and not confirmed in larger studies, as, logically if this is occurring in this direction, it could also work the other way i.e when individuals with SARS-Cov-2 antibodies are later challenged by seasonal alpha-coronaviruses. Given known issues with coronaviruses in general in this regard, perhaps this is why antibody immunity is not long lived and the initial innate response and T cell responses to viral challenge are so important. https://www.mdpi.com/2075-1729/11/4/298/htm. This paper also worth a read https://www.frontiersin.org/articles...21.640093/full - they may be right.

  • JJackson
    commented on 's reply
    The highly local waves seem to be a feature of this pandemic. In the US some NY areas reached very high case numbers in the first wave while the pandemic was having almost no impact on most of the country. This time India's rural areas are getting hit, as well as the mega cities. Health service in these poor agricultural districts are very rudimentary and hospitals small, leaving too many without any access as waves pass through.
    Last edited by JJackson; April 30, 2021, 04:03 PM.

  • bertrand789
    replied
    I am interested in all the in-depth articles that will be written on the strategy deployed in India to fight against covid, because it concerns and will concern many countries ...

    May the best win ...

    Leave a comment:


  • Okieman
    replied
    Okieman Comment: Well, while we cannot be sure how other governments will react to new potentially more deadly and transmissible variants, we are getting some sense about how India's government is reacting. See the article below.

    Hat tip to Crofsblog, where I found this article posted. I have also posted it on another thread on FluTrackers concerning India here:
    https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/...well-as-people


    India cases up as scientists appeal to Modi to release data

    By ASHOK SHARMA

    NEW DELHI (AP) — Indian scientists appealed to Prime Minister Narendra Modi to publicly release virus data that would allow them to save lives as coronavirus cases climbed again Friday, prompting the army to open its hospitals in a desperate bid to control a massive humanitarian crisis.

    <snip>

    India’s pandemic response has been marred by insufficient data and the online appeal — signed by over 350 scientists Friday afternoon — asks government to release data about the sequencing of virus variants, testing, recovered patients and how people were responding to vaccines.

    <snip>

    The appeal urged the government to widen the number of organizations sequencing the virus to study its evolution, and also increase the number of samples being studied. It added that restrictions on importing scientific raw materials — to make India ‘self reliant’ is a key goal for Modi and his government — was an obstacle. “Such restrictions, at this time, only serve to impede our ability to deal with COVID-19,” it said.

    <snip>

    https://apnews.com/article/asia-paci...%20Subscribers

    Leave a comment:


  • Okieman
    commented on 's reply
    See the first article in this FluTrackers thread:
    https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/...covid-19-cases

    The Mystery Of India's Plummeting COVID-19 Cases
    February 2, 2021, 01:36 PM
    <snip>
    Serological surveys — random testing for antibodies — show that a majority of people in certain areas of India may have already been exposed to the coronavirus, without developing symptoms. Last week, preliminary findings from a fifth serological study of 28,000 people in India's capital showed that 56% of residents already have antibodies, though a final report has not yet been published. The figures were higher in more crowded areas. Last summer, another survey by Mumbai's health department and a government think tank found that 57% of Mumbai slum-dwellers and 16% of people living in other areas had antibodies suggesting prior exposure to the coronavirus.
    <snip>
    https://news.wbfo.org/post/mystery-i...covid-19-cases

  • sharon sanders
    replied
    Originally posted by Okieman View Post
    I am not at all trying to be argumentative JJackson. In fact I may not continue this discussion very much farther since it is not really of much value for us to argue here. I just feel strongly that this virus is not at all done changing and want folks to be prepared for what might be coming. I believe in hoping for the best, but preparing for the worst.
    I think the above is prudent advice. Watch global and local news. Stay informed. Use at least two sources.

    We do not know many things about how viruses develop, evolve, and spread throughout the world. Among the entire world's experts, who timely predicted this pandemic or the H1N1 2009 one?

    Nobody.

    Leave a comment:

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