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Discussion thread VI - COVID-19 (new coronavirus)

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  • I agree that the very group that should be protecting us is our media. And we have been grossly let down for years - excepting a few reporters.

    Listen - the COVID-19 vaccines were NEVER a guarantee. We have stated that on this site many times. We carry vaccine information but we do not "push" it. Our COVID-19 vaccine section in our Scientific Library is here.

    We have said here many times that vaccines are ONLY ONE tool.

    I have been following the UK situation link to see what might happen in the US. No one knows how bad the situation became in India because the number of deaths is probably grossly undercounted. link In the UK it looks like a trend may be developing of less cases in the past few days. Maybe the Delta attack lasts about 8 weeks? In any event, in a highly vaccinated population it appears the Delta COVID-19 deaths are at a lower rate than in a mostly unvaccinated population (at that time) like India.

    So you have to ask yourself. Among all the c**p out there what do you see? Painted with a broad brush - what can you generally ascertain?

    What is your personal risk if you get COVID-19? What have you generally seen among your contacts? Any hospitalizations? Any deaths?

    I know one death and several illnesses that all recovered at home under a doctor's remote care. The death was male, age 82, pre-vaccine, & with "regular" COVID-19. What will happen with the Delta variant? I have no clue.

    I urge everyone, again - contact your health practitioner for insight and advice. Do not take medical advice from the internet.

    I am fully vaccinated, very restrictive in my activities, and I carry a mask.

    I urge the current administration NOT to encourage large scale lockdowns. Society will not stand for it. Bad. Really bad.

    The doctor above is wrong about one thing. There have been plenty of vaccine failures and/or misses. Some flu vaccines have completely missed their target. Some are less effective than anticipated. So it happens. This is why I never gave up on masks or said wtf I am going to return to my old life 100%. Too much is still unknown. Also, most pandemics take several years to work through the world's populations.

    Always use at least two sources for your news.

    Use your common sense.

    Only you can take care of you.

    Comment


    • Something is up, Sharon. The media and some 'experts', haven't just been reporting bad data, they have been demonizing the unvaccinated. That is what led to me researching Third Reich era propaganda done by doctors and public health officials. This all culminated with Biden himself making a statement that anyone not vaccinated by now is not very smart.

      There are a couple of reasons for the government going into fascist mode about mass vaccination. One is that they fear an ADE disaster in the vaccinated so they want to eliminate the unvaccinated control group. The other is that the Marek's disease signature has been observed and the unvaccinated (and without immunity from natural infection), even the young and healthy, are in great danger.

      I posted Read's 2015 Marek's paper last summer, but all of a sudden this March 2021 people started saving it in the Archive:
      https://web.archive.org/web/*/https:...l.pbio.1002198
      That may mean legal interest.

      Imperfect Vaccination Can Enhance the Transmission of Highly Virulent Pathogens

      Abstract

      Could some vaccines drive the evolution of more virulent pathogens? Conventional wisdom is that natural selection will remove highly lethal pathogens if host death greatly reduces transmission. Vaccines that keep hosts alive but still allow transmission could thus allow very virulent strains to circulate in a population. Here we show experimentally that immunization of chickens against Marek's disease virus enhances the fitness of more virulent strains, making it possible for hyperpathogenic strains to transmit. Immunity elicited by direct vaccination or by maternal vaccination prolongs host survival but does not prevent infection, viral replication or transmission, thus extending the infectious periods of strains otherwise too lethal to persist. Our data show that anti-disease vaccines that do not prevent transmission can create conditions that promote the emergence of pathogen strains that cause more severe disease in unvaccinated hosts.

      Author Summary

      There is a theoretical expectation that some types of vaccines could prompt the evolution of more virulent (“hotter”) pathogens. This idea follows from the notion that natural selection removes pathogen strains that are so “hot” that they kill their hosts and, therefore, themselves. Vaccines that let the hosts survive but do not prevent the spread of the pathogen relax this selection, allowing the evolution of hotter pathogens to occur. This type of vaccine is often called a leaky vaccine. When vaccines prevent transmission, as is the case for nearly all vaccines used in humans, this type of evolution towards increased virulence is blocked. But when vaccines leak, allowing at least some pathogen transmission, they could create the ecological conditions that would allow hot strains to emerge and persist. This theory proved highly controversial when it was first proposed over a decade ago, but here we report experiments with Marek’s disease virus in poultry that show that modern commercial leaky vaccines can have precisely this effect: they allow the onward transmission of strains otherwise too lethal to persist. Thus, the use of leaky vaccines can facilitate the evolution of pathogen strains that put unvaccinated hosts at greater risk of severe disease. The future challenge is to identify whether there are other types of vaccines used in animals and humans that might also generate these evolutionary risks.


      Citation: Read AF, Baigent SJ, Powers C, Kgosana LB, Blackwell L, Smith LP, et al. (2015) Imperfect Vaccination Can Enhance the Transmission of Highly Virulent Pathogens. PLoS Biol 13(7): e1002198. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.1002198
      Academic Editor: Christophe Fraser, Imperial College London, UNITED KINGDOM
      Received: January 15, 2015; Accepted: June 11, 2015; Published: July 27, 2015
      Copyright: © 2015 Read et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited
      Data Availability: All data files are deposited in Dryad, doi:10.5061/dryad.4tn48.
      Last edited by Emily; July 31, 2021, 01:45 AM.
      _____________________________________________

      Ask Congress to Investigate COVID Origins and Government Response to Pandemic.

      i love myself. the quietest. simplest. most powerful. revolution ever. ---- nayyirah waheed

      "...there’s an obvious contest that’s happening between different sectors of the colonial ruling class in this country. And they would, if they could, lump us into their beef, their struggle." ---- Omali Yeshitela, African People’s Socialist Party

      (My posts are not intended as advice or professional assessments of any kind.)
      Never forget Excalibur.

      Comment


      • JJackson
        JJackson commented
        Editing a comment
        SARS-CoV-2 could pick up mutations and become more pathogenic but is just as likely to pick up mutations that make it less pathogenic. To date none of the SNPs or recombinations which have supplanted earlier wildtypes seem to have done either to any great extent. Changes in the Spike protein are probably not where we should be looking for changes in pathogenicity as it is primarily involved in cell entry which this virus does not seem to have a problem with. Spike changes will give the virus a fitness advantage in a mixed naive/partially immune population which is what we are seeing with D614G, Alpha and Delta all showing a fitness advantage as our immunity profile evolved.
        There is some evidence that Delta has reduced the serial interval from 6 to 4 days with a more rapid reduction of CT scores imply 3 log more RNA. If the PFU ratio is maintained this equates to a lot more virus earlier which challenges contact tracing and increases the need for frequent rapid antigen testing, and lower test costs even at the cost of sensitivity.

        The herd immunity question is a red herring in the discussions as it relies on us achieving a high and sustained level of immunity to infection to the point of not transmitting the virus. Excellent as the vaccines are in reducing disease severity they may be halving transmission in the short term but if we lower our guard and double the number of contacts we have, over our caution a year ago, this advantage evaporates, added to which protection will wain with time since your last viral challenge.

        This virus is going to be with us for the long term we have to hope that we, and it, find a less damaging balance as we did with the 1918 pandemic as it morphed into seasonal H1N1 flu but that is likely to be a gradual process taking years or possibly decades.
        Last edited by JJackson; July 31, 2021, 12:14 PM.

      • tetano
        tetano commented
        Editing a comment
        In any case, the article of Read refers to hyperpathogenic agents that currently circulate, not that they can (with very little probability) in the future. For this reason there is currently no possibility that occurs what is described

      • Emily
        Emily commented
        Editing a comment
        Thanks for your comments, tetano and JJackson. Will hope a Marek's disease scenario does not occur.

    • A few comments:

      1) It is wrong to demonize any group of people. This can lead to some very unfortunate consequences.

      2) When vaccines work, they are miracle drugs.

      3) Vaccines do not always work as anticipated and we should always be ready for this.

      4) Vaccines, like other public health tools, are not 100% effective by themselves. You need to layer your protections in a pandemic.

      5) Do not take medical advice from the internet. Do your research. Contact your medical practitioner about medical questions.

      6) Governments need to realize that they can not control what people think. The only communication plan that works is the truth.

      7) Further lockdowns in Western societies will lead to mayhem.

      Comment


      • https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/statu...032943621?s=20
        Eric Feigl-Ding
        @DrEricDing

        Replying to@DrEricDing

        3) CDC internal report also reveals the results of an “CANARY IN A COAL MINE* unpublished Massachusetts contact tracing study revealing an outbreak of vaccinated to vaccinated transmission that was genomic sequencing confirmed. why the hell is this not published yet?!?!?!


        Click image for larger version  Name:	CDC coverup.jpg Views:	4 Size:	121.7 KB ID:	920740

        11:04 PM · Jul 29, 2021·Twitter for iPhone
        _____________________________________________

        Ask Congress to Investigate COVID Origins and Government Response to Pandemic.

        i love myself. the quietest. simplest. most powerful. revolution ever. ---- nayyirah waheed

        "...there’s an obvious contest that’s happening between different sectors of the colonial ruling class in this country. And they would, if they could, lump us into their beef, their struggle." ---- Omali Yeshitela, African People’s Socialist Party

        (My posts are not intended as advice or professional assessments of any kind.)
        Never forget Excalibur.

        Comment


        • sharon sanders
          sharon sanders commented
          Editing a comment
          Not that I want to agree with JJackson, but this would be an example of the CDC moving with lightening speed. It usually takes them months to get an observation researched and included in any report for publication. On the other hand, if they saw this info accumulating just after the 4th, they could have issued a press release sometime in July while waiting for the data to be fully quantified for submittal in a report.

        • Emily
          Emily commented
          Editing a comment
          "On the other hand, if they saw this info accumulating just after the 4th, they could have issued a press release sometime in July while waiting for the data to be fully quantified for submittal in a report."

          That is Dr. Ding's position, Sharon. He also has been pushing CDC to recommend quality masks for those that need them, too. They seem deaf. And they should be faster in a pandemic. I have no faith in them in the first place because no recognition of natural immunity is there. Something is off about their response.
          Last edited by Emily; August 5, 2021, 02:59 AM. Reason: Dr. Ding was sadly promoting some hate speech so can't recommend his feed in general.

        • gsgs
          gsgs commented
          Editing a comment
          I read this was a special situation in Ptown and an estimate that 95% were vaxed

      • Report released next day.

        _____________________________________________

        Ask Congress to Investigate COVID Origins and Government Response to Pandemic.

        i love myself. the quietest. simplest. most powerful. revolution ever. ---- nayyirah waheed

        "...there’s an obvious contest that’s happening between different sectors of the colonial ruling class in this country. And they would, if they could, lump us into their beef, their struggle." ---- Omali Yeshitela, African People’s Socialist Party

        (My posts are not intended as advice or professional assessments of any kind.)
        Never forget Excalibur.

        Comment


        • https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/statu...30290080108544



          Eric Feigl-Ding

          @DrEricDing

          Replying to@DrEricDing

          5) the Singapore Delta outbreak proves that vaccinated still transmitted. In this #DeltaVariant cluster alone, among 29 vaccinated who got infected, 21 transmissions events were between vaccinated-to-vaccinated or vaccinated-to-unvaccinated. That’s a lot! http://covid.viz.sg




          12:18 AM · Jul 2, 2021·Twitter for iPhone


          https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/statu...30854386073602


          Eric Feigl-Ding

          @DrEricDing
          Jul 2

          Replying to@DrEricDing

          6) Also notice (4 o’clock position) that many of the unvaccinated-to-unvaccinated first initially started from a vaccinated-to-unvaccinated transmission chain!!! This demonstrates why vaccinated people still need to mask up damnit! (This is a subtweet at a public health agency)

          _____________________________________________

          Ask Congress to Investigate COVID Origins and Government Response to Pandemic.

          i love myself. the quietest. simplest. most powerful. revolution ever. ---- nayyirah waheed

          "...there’s an obvious contest that’s happening between different sectors of the colonial ruling class in this country. And they would, if they could, lump us into their beef, their struggle." ---- Omali Yeshitela, African People’s Socialist Party

          (My posts are not intended as advice or professional assessments of any kind.)
          Never forget Excalibur.

          Comment


        • So most of the uptick in hospitalizations and deaths in the US are from CDC's carrot/stick game. (Advising vaccinated they could unmask.) They should have known better, so should science journalists. But the horror sells vaccines and controversy is great for news.

          I guess the FDA's latest guidance on antibody testing is part of the same game.
          _____________________________________________

          Ask Congress to Investigate COVID Origins and Government Response to Pandemic.

          i love myself. the quietest. simplest. most powerful. revolution ever. ---- nayyirah waheed

          "...there’s an obvious contest that’s happening between different sectors of the colonial ruling class in this country. And they would, if they could, lump us into their beef, their struggle." ---- Omali Yeshitela, African People’s Socialist Party

          (My posts are not intended as advice or professional assessments of any kind.)
          Never forget Excalibur.

          Comment


        • https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02125-1
          • NEWS
          • 03 August 2021
          Surprise dip in UK COVID cases baffles researchers

          Daily recorded infections have more than halved since mid-July. Few researchers anticipated such a sharp decline, and they are now struggling to interpret it....

          Not herd immunity


          One thing it doesn’t mean, says Edmunds, is that the United Kingdom has built up enough population immunity through vaccination and natural infection to stop the virus spreading. “The drop in cases is unprecedented to some extent, in that it seemed to occur everywhere,” he says — something which has been previously seen only after lockdowns. “But herd immunity would come in different places at different times.”
          _____________________________________________

          Ask Congress to Investigate COVID Origins and Government Response to Pandemic.

          i love myself. the quietest. simplest. most powerful. revolution ever. ---- nayyirah waheed

          "...there’s an obvious contest that’s happening between different sectors of the colonial ruling class in this country. And they would, if they could, lump us into their beef, their struggle." ---- Omali Yeshitela, African People’s Socialist Party

          (My posts are not intended as advice or professional assessments of any kind.)
          Never forget Excalibur.

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Emily View Post
            https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02125-1
            • NEWS
            • 03 August 2021
            Surprise dip in UK COVID cases baffles researchers

            Daily recorded infections have more than halved since mid-July. Few researchers anticipated such a sharp decline, and they are now struggling to interpret it....

            Not herd immunity


            One thing it doesn’t mean, says Edmunds, is that the United Kingdom has built up enough population immunity through vaccination and natural infection to stop the virus spreading. “The drop in cases is unprecedented to some extent, in that it seemed to occur everywhere,” he says — something which has been previously seen only after lockdowns. “But herd immunity would come in different places at different times.”
            Is the duration of the Delta variant cycle about 8 weeks in a well vaccinated society?




            Comment


            • Emily
              Emily commented
              Editing a comment
              Maybe the wave pattern gsgs describes would be seen more locally, like the herd immunity Edmunds describes. The Stat covid tracker seems to break things down no more finely than by country.

            • JJackson
              JJackson commented
              Editing a comment
              Emily Stat does get more granular if the data is collected in that way so if you look at the US you can then select California which in turn has graphs for over 60 individual counties. As you get into smaller and smaller units there are not enough data points to make a reasonably smooth curve and it breaks down into a jagged mess. It also shows deaths as the red line but to see these on a reasonable scale you need to click on the blue 'new cases' button (top right ) to get a readable scale. Changing the period to one month averages shows peaks more clearly. If you look at enough country epi-curves you can get to a point where you can make a fairly accurate guess as to what part of the world you are looking at without actually reading the name of the country.

            • Emily
              Emily commented
              Editing a comment
              I might be able to see the 5 week cycle locally soon. A month ago I was in a clinic waiting area and there were several people there coughing and sneezing. (This clinic has nothing to do with respiratory disease.) I'm in a high COVID area, but also I read RSV was circulating then. Our state is now down to only 8 ICU beds left.
              However, today I was in the same waiting room and no signs of respiratory illness at all. I'm hoping that is a sign of the downside of the cycle.

          • Iceland -

            Translation Google

            Herd immunity must be achieved by transmitting the virus

            Árni Sæberg writes August 8, 2021 12:13 PM

            Þórólfur Guðnason is the epidemiologist of Iceland

            The epidemiologist believes that it is now necessary to try to achieve herd immunity to the coronary virus by letting it continue, but to try to prevent serious illness by protecting vulnerable groups. He says the goal at this point cannot be to eradicate the virus from society.

            One and a half months after the abolition of all domestic operations, a record number have been diagnosed infected in recent weeks, despite the fact that the majority of the population has been vaccinated.

            Þórólfur Guðnason said in Sprengisandur in Bylgjan this morning that it is disappointing that herd immunity has not been achieved with vaccination. He says there is only one other way to achieve herd immunity, to allow the virus to spread throughout the community.


            Þórólfur says that he has talked about it since the beginning of the epidemic that the crown virus mutated. This has now happened with the arrival of the Delta variant across the border.

            He says, however, that the vaccination was not in vain. "The vaccination has prevented a serious illness, there is no question about that," says Þórólfur.

            Þórólfur says that it is necessary to respond to how many people become infected after vaccination. "We just need to shuffle the cards and come up with new plans," he said.

            "We really can not do anything else," says Þórólfur when asked whether the nation of seventy to eighty must be allowed to become infected in order to achieve herd immunity.

            Some need to be revaccinated
            Þórólfur says that the priority now is to give booster doses to those who have responded poorly to vaccination. "We need to try to vaccinate and better protect those who are vulnerable, but let us tolerate the infection," he said.

            "I think it is quite clear that Janssen's defense is weaker than that of other vaccines," says Þórólfur. He says it is a priority to give those who received the Jansen vaccine a booster dose. Then, for example, teachers and the elderly need to be given a booster dose as soon as possible.

            "It is not a priority now to vaccinate everyone with the third dose, as we also need to think: Maybe we should get a new variant? Do we need to be vaccinated with another vaccine? ”He says. Þórólfur says that the fight against the virus will be characterized by such uncertainty.

            Will not propose hard action
            "We need to somehow navigate this way, and we are now in this, not to get too many serious illnesses so that the hospital system does not collapse, but still try to achieve this herd immunity by letting the virus somehow run."

            Þórólfur believes that the most important action now is to strengthen the hospital system and enable Landspítali to accept more people who need hospitalization.

            He says the situation at Landspítali is not good, even though no emergency call has been received from there. "I do not think we have reached the point where we need to take tough action," he said.

            However, he says we need to be ready to take action if we are to see a lot of seriously infected people.

            Þórólfur says that there will be discussions with specialists and those who work at Landspítali about improvements at the hospital. He does not intend to comment in detail on what needs to be done for the hospital to meet other demand.

            Offer parents a vaccine for their children
            It has been decided to invite parents to vaccinate children as new research has indicated that the side effects of vaccinating children are not serious. However, children can become seriously ill if they become infected with the Delta variant.

            Sóttvarnalæknir telur að nú verði að reyna að ná fram hjarðónæmi gegn kórónuveirunni með því að láta hana ganga áfram, en reyna að koma í veg fyrir alvarleg veikindi með því að hlífa viðkvæmum hópum. Hann segir markmiðið á þessum tímapunkti ekki geta verið að útrýma veirunni úr samfélaginu.
            "Safety and security don't just happen, they are the result of collective consensus and public investment. We owe our children, the most vulnerable citizens in our society, a life free of violence and fear."
            -Nelson Mandela

            Comment


            • bump this

              Comment


              • Fauci hopeful COVID vaccines get full OK by FDA within weeks

                By AAMER MADHANI
                yesterday

                WILMINGTON, Del. (AP) — The U.S. government’s top infectious disease expert, Dr. Anthony Fauci, said Sunday that he was hopeful the Food and Drug Administration will give full approval to the coronavirus vaccine by month’s end and predicted the potential move will spur a wave of vaccine mandates in the private sector as well as schools and universities.

                The FDA has only granted emergency-use approval of the Pfizer, Moderna and Johnson & Johnson vaccines, but the agency is expected to soon give full approval to Pfizer.
                ...
                The U.S. government’s top infectious disease expert, Dr. Anthony Fauci, says he's hopeful that the Food and Drug Administration will give full approval to the coronavirus vaccine by month’s end.
                "Safety and security don't just happen, they are the result of collective consensus and public investment. We owe our children, the most vulnerable citizens in our society, a life free of violence and fear."
                -Nelson Mandela

                Comment


              • for delta : VE , LA-County=54% , St.Louis=79?% , FL=75?%, LA=77?% good reporting in OK,VE=90%
                Israel VE<0 , Iceland <50% ,, England 59% ,Singapore <70% , but GER,FRA,VA,OK, etc. VE>90%
                how many are trying to hide and obfuscate {and underreport ?} data on BT cases in USA :
                I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                Comment


                • for delta : VE , LA-County=54% , St.Louis=79?% , FL=75?%, LA=77?% good reporting in OK,VE=90%
                  Israel VE<0 , Iceland <50% ,, England 59% ,Singapore <70% , but GER,FRA,VA,OK, etc. VE>90%
                  how many are trying to hide and obfuscate {and underreport ?} data on BT cases in USA :
                  I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                  my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                  Comment


                  • Emily posted this link to a short news interview which is much the best explanation of our current situation I have seen. I would highly recommend it.


                    "Herd immunity is not a possibility" because the Delta variant "still infects vaccinated individuals". Professor Sir Andrew Pollard, director of the Oxford Vaccine Group.
                    I think this could be interpreted as a peculiar to the Delta variant but I think, hope, he just meant that is currently the case because that is the dominant UK strain at present. All the strains can cause infections in those who have been previously vaccinated or infected. Even if they reduce infection by 50%, due to the much higher R(0) of SARS-CoV-2, that still leaves it more contagious than seasonal flu.

                    Comment


                    • JJackson
                      JJackson commented
                      Editing a comment
                      gs the vaccine is very effective and I am not sure we can improve it by much. While there are better vaccines I do not know of any as good as these are for a respiratory disease. Those that do give long lasting high levels of steralising immunity tend to be for viremic conditions where antibodies can intercept the virus in the blood. What we can do is cut the number of hospitalisations by getting more people vaccinated. Tinkering with vaccine formulation to better target the current top variant will make little difference as it will just promote a different vaccine escape strain and we will be forever chasing our tail.

                    • gsgs
                      gsgs commented
                      Editing a comment
                      it was 95% effective now it's 75%-80% against delta, even if we ignore Israel,Iceland,UK,Singapore.
                      A delta vaccine should bring it back to 95%, (against symptomatic infection) no ?

                    • JJackson
                      JJackson commented
                      Editing a comment
                      gs I suspect you are right and if you reformulate to match the Delta strain you will increase protection against that strain, at the cost of reducing protection against everything else. What I expect would then happen is another strain, which is not so well matched to the vaccine, will then replace Delta as the dominant variant.
                      Last edited by JJackson; August 15, 2021, 01:12 PM.
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