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Discussion thread VI - COVID-19 (new coronavirus)

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  • Here is another analysis out today:

    What will it take for US to reach #herdimmunity & when will we get there? Use
    @nytimes
    's interactive tool based on
    @PHICORteam

    When Could the United States Reach Herd Immunity? It’s Complicated.
    See how vaccines, distancing measures and the rise of coronavirus variants affect projections for herd immunity and when we might reach it.
    nytimes.com

    --------------------------------------------------------------

    The bottom line is that no one knows what is going to happen.

    In the last few posts we have posted opinions from Mike Osterholm PhD., Marty Makary M.D., and Bruce Lee, M.D.

    Read through the data at the links, look at other sources too, and assess your personal situation.

    We have said for many years to always use at least two sources for your news and use your common sense.
    Last edited by sharon sanders; February 20, 2021, 05:57 PM. Reason: typo

    Comment


    • I have posted something on herd immunity here ( https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/...-opinion/page3 ) as it is a bit long for this thread.

      Comment


      • Why are the number of cases going down in the northern hemishere?

        Could it be that changes in the immune system during shorter days effect transmissibility of the virus in humans? Or the response of the immune system during shorter days is such that more people present asymptomatically and never go and get tested?

        I do not know. But certain things in this article caught my eye and make me wonder. We know that influenza is more prevalent during the winter, but that does not mean that Covid will be too. It seems to do quite well near the equator. This is not an area of expertise for me. Maybe someone here with some knowledge in this area might take a look at this article and give their thoughts on it.

        ​​​​​​Day length predicts investment in human immune function: Shorter days yield greater investment
        https://www.semanticscholar.org/pape...81c77be036a3ae

        Comment


        • blacknail
          blacknail commented
          Editing a comment
          I think a lot of factors are the drivers, a lot of people wanted to see people for holiday meals but were willing to follow restrictions otherwise. Travel restrictions have been ramped up in the New Year, there is new US leadership that is taking the virus seriously. People are afraid of the variants enough to follow the rules. The vaccine is now protecting the most vulnerable and fewer people are bothering to get tested because they feel the vulnerable are a lot safer. Certainly, there could be immune and seasonally-based drivers, the people that didn't hunker down and are at risk may have reached a herd immunity of sorts.

        • Okieman
          Okieman commented
          Editing a comment
          What we may be seeing is a confluence of a number of things, which collectively is driving down the number cases. Here is a list of things which come to mind:

          -Lockdowns in multiple nations are taking effect.
          -The number of those vaccinated is now significant
          -The numbers of those who caught Covid before and immediately after the holidays increased awareness and caused people to become more careful
          -Could new variants be evading the tests, causing more false negatives? (Just recently I have heard of three potential false negatives)
          -Significant numbers of people have caught the virus (knowingly and unknowingly) and recovered and those numbers are effecting new transmission
          -More people are now taking Vitamin D or some other effective immune boosting folk remedy? (I believe Vitamin D is very important, but this has not be en firmly established scientifically to help prevent Covid.)
          -Some unknown factor at work

          Can anyone think of additional things I have missed?

          I think that while all or some of those things are driving the numbers down, the new variants seem to continue to gain traction. I believe what we have right now is a sort of reprieve before the next wave. It would be nice if I were wrong. But I am not optimistic.

        • Emily
          Emily commented
          Editing a comment
          Even though the vaccine is targeted towards the vulnerable and HCW's, etc, everyone is still being encouraged to wear masks and distance, so I don't think that could explain the numbers. Also, Alabama has the downturn and they are aren't getting the vaccine out as aggressively as other states.
          Blacknail's point about people not going for testing as much could be in play, though. I think it is possible the virus could be changing if it was an accidental lab release.

          "Viruses are widely used as vectors for heterologous gene expression in cultured cells or natural hosts, and therefore a large number of viruses with exogenous sequences inserted into their genomes have been engineered. Many of these engineered viruses are viable and express heterologous proteins at high levels, but the inserted sequences often prove to be unstable over time and are rapidly lost, limiting heterologous protein expression. Although virologists are aware that inserted sequences can be unstable, processes leading to insert instability are rarely considered from an evolutionary perspective."

      • bump this

        Comment


        • Et si le respect de l'hom?ostasie, et tous les vaccins, actuels, ne pouvaient que rendre l'immunit? collective impossible, pour ce genre de virus, on ferait quoi ?

          Dit autrement, une vraie description de tous les sus du facteur E est envisageable ou ?

          Sharon, c'est une des limites, et la valeur de ce lieu:

          ?clairer les possibles sans faire de choix ...

          Comment


          • I have just seen a item on the internet called "COVID Derangement Syndrome". This is in reference to the inflation in the media, government, etc. of all things COVID. Since the illness affects most severely (to date) the elderly, there is a belief that the entire pandemic setting is overhyped. This concept includes the belief that many entities are financially benefitting from the pandemic and is a key motivation to push the pandemic mantra.

            We do not do cancel culture here so I wanted to mention that there is a name to the concept that the COVID-19 pandemic is highly overblown.

            _____________________________

            I believe that the COVID-19 pandemic is a real threat but I also believe that many are seeking to take advantage of a bad situation. As I have been saying for a long time - assess your personal situation and act accordingly. I am not a supporter of large, hard, lengthy lockdowns. This was never in any plan that I saw.

            Comment


            • Emily
              Emily commented
              Editing a comment
              I wondered if Joe Boever was walking back to his truck to retrieve his masks the night SD's Attorney General struck and killed him. This photo is one of the saddest I've ever seen:


              Certainly there are other risks in life than this disease such as getting injured or killed by a driver watching his cell phone instead of the road. I think the criticism is not that the new coronavirus disease itself is minimally harmful, but that the reaction to it is imbalanced in the media and in lockdown policies. However, those making money or increasing power from the pandemic are not deranged at all in my opinion.

              "I believe this syndrome to be real and deserving of a name that grabs attention. Such attention-grabbing is warranted, because I further believe that this syndrome poses a dangerous risk to humanity that dwarfs the risk posed by SARS-CoV-2." ~ Donald J. Boudreaux


          • UAB doctor: U.S. could reach herd immunity by late spring

            LOCAL NEWS
            by: Michael Clark

            Posted: Feb 24, 2021 / 08:26 PM CST / Updated: Feb 24, 2021 / 08:26 PM CST

            BIRMINGHAM, Ala. (WIAT) — A doctor at UAB believes the United States could reach herd immunity in the fight against COVID-19 in late spring or early summer.

            Dr. Suzanne Judd, a UAB epidemiologist, said there were a lot of factors to be considered. She remains cautiously optimistic about the decrease in case numbers and hospitalizations.
            ...
            Scientists believe 72% of the population needs to be exposed or vaccinated to achieve herd immunity.
            ...
            “Current estimates are that we will see it sometime late spring, early Summer in Alabama. Somewhere between May and June is likely, but this depends on many factors,” said Judd.
            ...
            BIRMINGHAM, Ala. (WIAT) — A doctor at UAB believes the United States could reach herd immunity in the fight against COVID-19 in late spring or early summer. Dr. Suzanne Judd, a UAB epidemiolo…
            "Safety and security don't just happen, they are the result of collective consensus and public investment. We owe our children, the most vulnerable citizens in our society, a life free of violence and fear."
            -Nelson Mandela

            Comment


            • Herd immunity may already be taking hold, but this is not the time to back away from vaccines, masks and social distancing. Extinguish all the embers.

              Robert M. Kaplan

              Opinion contributor
              In early January, as new COVID-19 cases were at an all time high, I published an op-ed predicting that new cases would soon decline and that the December-January surge was likely to be the last one. The column was not well received by colleagues whose models indicated cases would continue to rise throughout the winter. But, since mid-January, new cases have fallen precipitously. Most of the different explanations for the decline are probably incorrect. Here’s why:...
              _____________________________________________

              Ask Congress to Investigate COVID Origins and Government Response to Pandemic.

              i love myself. the quietest. simplest. most powerful. revolution ever. ---- nayyirah waheed

              "...there’s an obvious contest that’s happening between different sectors of the colonial ruling class in this country. And they would, if they could, lump us into their beef, their struggle." ---- Omali Yeshitela, African People’s Socialist Party

              (My posts are not intended as advice or professional assessments of any kind.)
              Never forget Excalibur.

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Okieman View Post
                Why are the number of cases going down in the northern hemishere?

                Could it be that changes in the immune system during shorter days effect transmissibility of the virus in humans? Or the response of the immune system during shorter days is such that more people present asymptomatically and never go and get tested?

                I do not know. But certain things in this article caught my eye and make me wonder. We know that influenza is more prevalent during the winter, but that does not mean that Covid will be too. It seems to do quite well near the equator. This is not an area of expertise for me. Maybe someone here with some knowledge in this area might take a look at this article and give their thoughts on it.

                ​​​​​​Day length predicts investment in human immune function: Shorter days yield greater investment
                https://www.semanticscholar.org/pape...81c77be036a3ae
                3 comments

                • #292.1
                  blacknail commented
                  February 21, 2021, 01:31 AM
                  I think a lot of factors are the drivers, a lot of people wanted to see people for holiday meals but were willing to follow restrictions otherwise. Travel restrictions have been ramped up in the New Year, there is new US leadership that is taking the virus seriously. People are afraid of the variants enough to follow the rules. The vaccine is now protecting the most vulnerable and fewer people are bothering to get tested because they feel the vulnerable are a lot safer. Certainly, there could be immune and seasonally-based drivers, the people that didn't hunker down and are at risk may have reached a herd immunity of sorts.
                  • Edit
                  • Flag


                  #292.2
                  Okieman commented
                  February 21, 2021, 04:16 PM
                  What we may be seeing is a confluence of a number of things, which collectively is driving down the number cases. Here is a list of things which come to mind:

                  -Lockdowns in multiple nations are taking effect.
                  -The number of those vaccinated is now significant
                  -The numbers of those who caught Covid before and immediately after the holidays increased awareness and caused people to become more careful
                  -Could new variants be evading the tests, causing more false negatives? (Just recently I have heard of three potential false negatives)
                  -Significant numbers of people have caught the virus (knowingly and unknowingly) and recovered and those numbers are effecting new transmission
                  -More people are now taking Vitamin D or some other effective immune boosting folk remedy? (I believe Vitamin D is very important, but this has not be en firmly established scientifically to help prevent Covid.)
                  -Some unknown factor at work

                  Can anyone think of additional things I have missed?

                  I think that while all or some of those things are driving the numbers down, the new variants seem to continue to gain traction. I believe what we have right now is a sort of reprieve before the next wave. It would be nice if I were wrong. But I am not optimistic.
                  • Edit
                  • Flag

                • #292.3
                  Emily commented
                  February 22, 2021, 03:41 AM
                  Even though the vaccine is targeted towards the vulnerable and HCW's, etc, everyone is still being encouraged to wear masks and distance, so I don't think that could explain the numbers. Also, Alabama has the downturn and they are aren't getting the vaccine out as aggressively as other states.
                  Blacknail's point about people not going for testing as much could be in play, though. I think it is possible the virus could be changing if it was an accidental lab release.

                  "Viruses are widely used as vectors for heterologous gene expression in cultured cells or natural hosts, and therefore a large number of viruses with exogenous sequences inserted into their genomes have been engineered. Many of these engineered viruses are viable and express heterologous proteins at high levels, but the inserted sequences often prove to be unstable over time and are rapidly lost, limiting heterologous protein expression. Although virologists are aware that inserted sequences can be unstable, processes leading to insert instability are rarely considered from an evolutionary perspective."

                ------------------------------------------------------------

                Please see:

                W.H.O. - "WHO guidance Diagnostic testing for SARS-CoV-2 states that careful interpretation of weak positive results is needed" i.e. Ct scoring - January 21, 2021

                Comment


              • La d?livrance d'un pass sanitaire, suite ? une vaccination non st?rilisante est une forme de renoncement: le renoncement ? la mondialisation des variants.

                Si, suite ? un cas de rhume, d?sormais d'?t? ou d'hiver, on ferme une ?cole, un r?giment ou une usine, on va devoir s'astreindre ? repenser toutes les organisations soci?tales.

                Ces virus sont d?sormais dans toutes les populations humaines mondiales et dans bien des populations animales.

                Ce ne serait pas le r?le de L'O.M.S d'enfin pr?ciser comment aborder un rhume de fa?on intelligente ?

                Comment



                • 16 FEBRUARY 2021

                  The coronavirus is here to stay — here’s what that means
                  ...

                  Childhood virus

                  Five years from now, when childcare centres call parents to tell them that their child has a runny nose and a fever, the COVID-19 pandemic might seem a distant memory. But there’s a chance the virus that killed more than 1.5 million people in 2020 alone will be the culprit.

                  This is one scenario that scientists foresee for SARS-CoV-2. The virus sticks around, but once people develop some immunity to it — either through natural infection or vaccination — they won’t come down with severe symptoms. The virus would become a foe first encountered in early childhood, when it typically causes mild infection or none at all, says Jennie Lavine, an infectious-disease researcher at Emory University in Atlanta, Georgia.

                  Scientists consider this possible because that’s how the four endemic coronaviruses, called OC43, 229E, NL63 and HKU1, behave. At least three of these viruses have probably been circulating in human populations for hundreds of years; two of them are responsible for roughly 15% of respiratory infections. Using data from previous studies, Lavine and her colleagues developed a model that shows how most children first come down with these viruses before the age of 6 and develop immunity to them1. That defence wanes pretty quickly so it is not sufficient to block reinfection entirely, but it seems to protect adults from getting sick, says Lavine. Even in children, the first infection is relatively mild.
                  ...
                  "Safety and security don't just happen, they are the result of collective consensus and public investment. We owe our children, the most vulnerable citizens in our society, a life free of violence and fear."
                  -Nelson Mandela

                  Comment



                  • Translation Google

                    After having brought the epidemic under control, China vaccinates without urgency: a profitable "sacrifice"?

                    afp
                    Published on 07/03/21 at 8:57 am - Updated 07/03/21 at 9:06 am
                    ...
                    Faced with the relative apathy, China is trying to react: it hopes to have vaccinated 40% of its 1.4 billion inhabitants by the end of June, according to respiratory disease expert Zhong Nanshan, figure in the fight against Covid in the country.

                    ?Emergency? vaccinations had already started last summer for exposed groups (caregivers, employees of state enterprises or students going abroad). Since December, cities, neighborhood committees and businesses have gradually offered 18-59 year olds to be vaccinated...

                    Beijing has so far approved four vaccines, all Chinese. However, two did not get the green light from the authorities until the end of February.

                    As a precaution, people 60 and over are almost excluded from vaccination, because manufacturers have not yet published precise data from clinical tests on seniors.

                    ...
                    Millions of Chinese vaccines are going abroad, in the form of sales or donations, in order to "help the international community to overcome the epidemic", say the authorities.

                    According to state media accounts, orders and donations currently represent some 560 million doses. China says it offers free vaccines to 69 countries.
                    ...
                    Des Chinois qui ne ressentent aucune urgence car l'épidémie est maîtrisée chez eux, des capacités de production encore modestes et une "diplomatie vaccinale" qui détourne des doses vers l'étranger: la vaccination débute timidement en Chine.
                    "Safety and security don't just happen, they are the result of collective consensus and public investment. We owe our children, the most vulnerable citizens in our society, a life free of violence and fear."
                    -Nelson Mandela

                    Comment


                    • Now my age group is going to be authorized to obtain a COVID-19 vaccine in Florida. link However, after talking with my family I am going to wait until June for the following reasons:

                      1) A doctor with many decades of experience once told me to wait 6 months to take any new vaccine.

                      2) There is no choice of which vaccine you will receive. It is a possibility that I could receive the new J&J vaccine that has only been out - literally a week - with zero track record of real life mass vaccinations.

                      3) There is another person living in my household who will not be authorized to take the vaccine for some time. So my life style will remain the same even if I am vaccinated. I will not be free to eat inside restaurants or go to any events, for example.

                      4) There is a question about how well the existing vaccines will cover the new variants. i.e. Brazil P.1. I might prefer to take an updated vaccine later in the summer.

                      I know this decision is counter to the vaccine push seen all over the media, governments, etc. But it is my private choice. As I have said many times, FluTrackers is independent media and we do not owe anyone anything.

                      I would love to take a "magic pill" and have all of this pandemic situation behind me. If my entire household could take a real life proven safe and effective pill or vaccine, I would take it today.

                      Until then - I will continue to life a restricted life. I do not go out except to drive around and visit a couple of people in driveways. I always wear a mask (even outside) around others as I do not want to contribute to any burden on the health care system.

                      This is not medical advice. If you have any questions about vaccines, consult your medical provider.

                      Comment


                      • vlandeck
                        vlandeck commented
                        Editing a comment
                        Completely agree with your assessment. Some people have no need to urgently receive the vaccine.

                    • Insanity in a pandemic. My opinion.


                      Comment



                      • This article was written in September 2020

                        The deadly viruses that vanished without trace

                        By Zaria Gorvett
                        ...
                        Like its close relative Covid-19, Sars had many of the necessary qualities for world domination ? it was an RNA virus, meaning it was able to evolve rapidly, and it was spread through droplets expelled when breathing, which are hard to avoid. At the time, many experts were concerned that the virus could cause devastation on the same level as the HIV crisis, or even the 1918 flu pandemic, which infected a third of the world?s population and killed 50 million.

                        Instead, Sars disappeared as abruptly as it arrived.
                        ...
                        Unfortunately this situation is extremely unusual. Other than Sars, only two other viruses have ever been driven to extinction on purpose ? smallpox and rinderpest, which affects cattle. ?It?s not trivial. It?s really very difficult when you have a virus that?s well adapted,? says Stanley Perlman, a microbiologist at the University of Iowa.
                        ...
                        ?Sars went away because there's no other obvious host,? says Perlman. Sars is thought to have made the leap to humans via a palm civet, a tree-dwelling jungle mammal that?s considered a delicacy in China. Perlman points out that the virus couldn?t just retreat back to this species, because they aren?t commonly infected ? the individual animal that gave it to a human was probably one of very few which were infected, and may have caught it directly from a bat.

                        The same cannot be said for Covid-19... ?With Covid-19, the reservoir is now us,? says Perlman. In fact, it?s become so much of a human virus that scientists have begun to wonder if it will spread the other way around ? from humans to wildlife, in a kind of ?reverse spillover?, if you will. This would make it even harder to stamp out.

                        This brings us to another possible scenario, which involves viruses that exist continuously in people. While they may well be with our species forever, it turns out individual lineages of virus vanish remarkably regularly.
                        ...
                        It turns out that anyone who died before 1893 will never have been infected with any of the influenza A strains that exist today. That?s because every flu virus that existed in humans until about 120 years ago has gone extinct. The strain that caused the 1918 pandemic has also disappeared, as has the one that led to the 1957 avian flu outbreak, which killed up to 116,000 people in the US, and the type of flu that was circulating in 2009, before swine flu emerged.
                        ...
                        Scientists are only just starting to unravel why some viruses disappear, while others can linger and cause disease for centuries.
                        "Safety and security don't just happen, they are the result of collective consensus and public investment. We owe our children, the most vulnerable citizens in our society, a life free of violence and fear."
                        -Nelson Mandela

                        Comment


                        • JJackson
                          JJackson commented
                          Editing a comment
                          Vibrant. While there are lots of variants, and more will pop up, they are all fairly small variations on the SARS-2 theme and I am not overly worried by anything we have seen so far. It is difficult to conceive of anything that would markedly increase transmission, from an already very high R0. Virulence is a different matter as we do not understand why this virus is so much lower than SARS1 or MERS we do not know what change could occur that would turn it into a SARS1 type problem while retaining its presymptomatic shedding. The best course of action is to maintain non pharmaceutical measures at a high level and get the vaccine distributed as widely and quickly as possible to stop spread - the rate of mutations being proportional to the number of viral replication cycles globally. If there are very few people infected there are very few opportunities for the virus to hit on a nasty change. Just vaccinating individuals in a few rich vaccine producing countries is not a solution if there are still vast numbers of infected elsewhere as if anything pops up anywhere in the world, that can evade vaccines and/or significantly increase virulence, it is going to get back to us. None of the current variants do either significantly.
                          The other concern is that someone infected will infect an animal that can act as a new host reservoir, again less human infections will lower the chance of this happening.

                        • Vibrant62
                          Vibrant62 commented
                          Editing a comment
                          JJackson - I guess I am still concerned about the risks of unforeseen problems e.g. antibody dependent enhancement, and if novel variants with a high level of immunological escape might trigger that or an original antigenic sin type response. I would suggest that at the moment, we dont have a complete understanding of the processes involved in these two areas, and that the only way we are going to 'know' if there is a problem here is with the passage of time and seeing what happens on re-infections. This is one of the reasons why I am trying to monitor what is evolving in Manaus, as its the best 'benchmark' location currently available, and a location where any problems may become self-evident.

                        • Vibrant62
                          Vibrant62 commented
                          Editing a comment
                          This is what I am concerned about. I hope these findings are in error and not confirmed in larger studies, as, logically if this is occurring in this direction, it could also work the other way i.e when individuals with SARS-Cov-2 antibodies are later challenged by seasonal alpha-coronaviruses. Given known issues with coronaviruses in general in this regard, perhaps this is why antibody immunity is not long lived and the initial innate response and T cell responses to viral challenge are so important. https://www.mdpi.com/2075-1729/11/4/298/htm. This paper also worth a read https://www.frontiersin.org/articles...21.640093/full - they may be right.
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