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Discussion thread VI - COVID-19 (new coronavirus)

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  • #76
    it's more contagious now. Look at all the steep increases in the northern Hemisphere !
    http://magictour.free.fr/e-1017.GIF
    It seems to be the colder weather or reduced UV
    I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
    my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

    Comment


    • JJackson
      JJackson commented
      Editing a comment
      It is beginning to look as if this is going to have significant seasonality like the other respiratory diseases. However Argentina's epi-curve is looking very European which I take to be evidence that SARS-CoV-2 is perfectly happy anywhere we are if there are enough contacts between potential host. In the absence of ubiquitous rapid testing physical distancing and increased population immunity, by either prior infection or vaccination, seem to be our main line of defense.

    • Vibrant62
      Vibrant62 commented
      Editing a comment
      I suspect humidity may also be a major factor, or perhaps there is a specific combination of UV intensity, humidity and indirect effects of temperature that affect overall transmissibility. There is data on pollution increasing infection rates, so I would expect that very dusty conditions caused by very hot dry weather could produce similar effects when people are in close proximity (in addition to the transmission caused by people crowding in air conditioned indoor environments). Perhaps there are also similar effects of increased transmission created in conditions of moderate humidity,. I wonder if ozone holes in the Southern Hemisphere could have had some protective effects there as there would be increased UV intensity all year round, which may actively limit environmental survival time. Extremely high humidity would cause aerosols or droplets carrying virus to precipitate out more easily - either way, the virus has shown itself capable of being transmitted all year round, but agree that this does seem to show heightened transmission in winter i.e it has some seasonality. As JJackson has said, it is beginning to look like there is a similar seasonality to colds and flu - what I am curious about is whether the drop in flu numbers in the S hemisphere can solely be attributed to social distancing measures currently employed, or if viral competition or other limiting measures may also be at play here?

    • gsgs
      gsgs commented
      Editing a comment
      Argentina went up in a straight line since July. Not that typical European steep incline in early Oct.
      http://magictour.free.fr/e-1018.GIF (I should update it for US-States)
      -----------------------------------------
      I looked at humidity before but saw no association. E.g. in spring Tehran was so dry.

      http://magictour.free.fr/cze1018.GIF

      ------------------------------------------
      someone else should look into this, I didn't see it yet , it's important,
      -----------------------------------------------
      years ago I noticed a death-increase after such autumn-temperature-drops
      I think it was from Pneumonia,Cardio , USA , 1970s. But also England 1880s
      The human physiology might somehow react ... is it known ? Is there a
      word for it ?
      ------------------------------------------------
      it can't be a change in the virus, that would not spread so fast to different countries..
      -----------------------------------------
      maybe some co-circulating other viruses or bacteria ?!
      ----------------------------------------

  • #77
    Originally posted by gsgs View Post
    it's more contagious now. Look at all the steep increases in the northern Hemisphere !
    http://magictour.free.fr/e-1017.GIF
    It seems to be the colder weather or reduced UV
    An article recently discussed the dispersion events and the "super-spreaders" being the epidemic driver. Regarding the majority of individual infections as limited ongoing transmission.

    Supposing the virus genetics and not the host animal genetics is responsible for creating a "superspreader" - maybe the virus genetics have become more capable via circulation and adaptation. Moreover, maybe it takes the same amount of time for ALL novel respiratory virus introductions to adapt and spawn more superspreader capable hosts - hence the Spring and Autumn waves common in novel influenza and influenza shift or drift events.

    Would be interesting to compare (and maybe they have) a genetic sample from a superspreader versus a limited transmission event versus a current European strain.

    Comment


    • #78

      US - WSJ: 69,000 new cases: highest daily COVID-19 coronavirus cases since July - CDC says 1,001 new deaths - October 17, 2020

      Comment


      • #79
        Coronavirus doctor's diary: 'We're no longer heroes - this is the new normal'

        17 October 2020

        Dr John Wright of Bradford Royal Infirmary looks ahead to the difficulties to come this winter, and considers how much has changed since March.

        The hospital remains in its own Narnia, locked down from visitors, with monastic corridors and deserted shops and coffee bars. The wards by contrast are busy and our A&E department is back to pre-pandemic activity with over 400 patients per day. The number of patients with Covid-19 has stabilised at around 80, 10 on ICU, not far off our peak in April, but unlike the first wave we are doing our best to keep all our services running as much as we can.

        This time we know what we are doing; we have learnt hard lessons.

        https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/health-54499758

        Comment


        • JJackson
          JJackson commented
          Editing a comment
          "This time we know what we are doing; we have learnt hard lessons."
          I think this accounts for most of the difference in the CFR between the earlier peaks and the one we are beginning to deal with.

      • #80

        China - Frozen import packaging with live SARSCoV2 COVID-19 blamed for Qingdao COVID-19 outbreak says CDC - October 17, 2020

        Comment


        • #82
          Today there are some reports on a possible higher transmission variant in Norway. Last week the same about Patagonia in Argentina. Anyone seen these ? See link to Norwegian media. Sounds legit. I have not seen sequencing results from Argentina yet. Worth to follow.
          Ny variant av coronaviruset oppdaget i Trondheim. – Endringer vi ikke har sett før, sier FHI.
          Last edited by Toaster2; October 19, 2020, 02:36 PM. Reason: Corrected typo

          Comment


          • gsgs
            gsgs commented
            Editing a comment
            the recent increase, we have it in multiple countries - mutations would spread from
            one place, one center to other places and slowly - just remember as it began in Wuhan
            or 1918 2nd wave

          • Toaster2
            Toaster2 commented
            Editing a comment
            JJackson, how quickly would you see new sequences in the databases. Both Norway and Argentina are quite recent.

            Anyway, I agree that we should be sceptical. The translated version of this story was also posted by russian accounts. I posted it because I understand Norwegian and it seems a legitimate news outlet. But it could be a fake story, yet then it is well constructed

          • gsgs
            gsgs commented
            Editing a comment
            I checked genbank some days ago, most recent USA from Sep19
            most recent non-USA were ca.10 from Malta from Sep07
            https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/labs/vi...e_s=Nucleotide
            The biggest sequence database is England with >48000 sequences, last update from Sep03.
            https://www.cogconsortium.uk/data/
            Charite/Germany has 491 sequences, latest are 1 from Sep28 and 1 from Sep25
            https://civnb.info/sequences/
            http://magictour.free.fr/sars2de4.ll1 {save it, open with editor, fixed character size, long lines)
            mutation picture : http://magictour.free.fr/sars2de4.GIF

        • #83
          Originally posted by Toaster2 View Post
          Today there are some reports on a possible higher transmission variant in Norway. . . . Anyone seen these ? See link to Norwegian media. Sounds legit.
          Speak and read Norwegian - legit. Edit: Seems people get sick on day 2 instead of on day 4-5

          An until now unseen mutation now in Norway, almost the same but not still verified as a variant that has been in Australia - is being investigated and more detailed info expected on Tuesday.. No idea how it came to Norway but most likely around a 6 day bus tour with pensioners on September 15th that stopped in 9 counties (of 11 in Norway, total 14 stops) - driver and guide (a registered nurse) not infected but 33 passengers of total 40 persons in the bus infected by Covid despite all procedures followed and in all 100 infections connected to the tour on October 17th. Source of infection not known yet but the mutation was found in these infections. Speculation that specified mutation came to Norway at or around the time the bus tour was. So tomorrow they'll have for more info.
          Last edited by Steffi; October 19, 2020, 08:19 PM.

          Comment


          • #84
            But - and this is pure speculation - there is also something funny with the Argentina numbers (on Worldometer). Please check how the numbers of infected vs deaths deviate from each other over the last month or so. Is this a new strain taking over, hence the mortality gap ? Or is it just bad reporting of deaths ?

            Comment


            • #85
              Toaster
              Without any sequence data it is hard to say and there have been no new sequences as of today. Genbank has no sequences from either country and GISAID has nothing less than 2 months old. When new sequences are released they are usually a week or so post collection.
              Re. Argentina
              The Worldometer data is very strange as on face value it is showing a radical temporary dip in the death rate in Sept.
              The graphs below show the daily cases, daily deaths (both from Worldometer) and from Stat news, which does not show the same pattern (I used 7 day rolling averages throughout).

              Click image for larger version  Name:	ARg1.JPG Views:	1 Size:	55.7 KB ID:	896392Click image for larger version  Name:	ARg3.JPG Views:	1 Size:	56.7 KB ID:	896391Click image for larger version  Name:	ARg2.JPG Views:	1 Size:	75.2 KB ID:	896390 Click image for larger version

Name:	ARg4.JPG
Views:	127
Size:	68.4 KB
ID:	896394
              My guess would be a breakdown, or reclassification, of the death data and the big dip in Sept. deaths should not be viewed as a new less virulent strain that appeared for a month and then disappeared again.
              Re. Norway
              We will have to wait for more information but at this stage the only thing I can think of that may account for a shortening of the incubation period relates to initial viral load. If all the people on the bus are continually being challenged by the virus by someone at their point of peak shedding then I can see that they may get to the point where the immune response starts earlier and it is this that they perceive as symptoms.

              Comment


              • Toaster2
                Toaster2 commented
                Editing a comment
                Thanks !

            • #86
              Remdesivir: Drugmaker Gilead was briefed on poor results of study before signing European deal, officials say

              EU medicine regulator seeks full results of WHO’s remdesivir trial


              The EU’s medicines regulator has requested the complete results of the World Health Organization’s remdesivir trial, the European Commission said, after the study found the Covid-19 treatment to have no substantial effect on rates of survival. The European Commission announced last week that it had signed a deal with the developer, Gilead Sciences, to supply 500,000 treatment courses of the drug, worth more than €1bn.

              Trial data had shown the treatment cut the time to recover from Covid-19 by as much five days, while Gilead had said the drug may also reduce the likelihood of death. But the results from the WHO’s highly anticipated Solidarity trial, first reported by the Financial Times, found that remdesivir and other three other potential drug regimens “appeared to have little or no effect on 28-day mortality or the in-hospital course of Covid-19 among hospitalised patients”.

              According to WHO officials, the organisation told Gilead of the findings of the Solidarity trial in September, as long as two weeks before the European Commission announced its deal to procure the drug.
              News, analysis and comment from the Financial Times, the worldʼs leading global business publication
              “Addressing chronic disease is an issue of human rights – that must be our call to arms"
              Richard Horton, Editor-in-Chief The Lancet

              ~~~~ Twitter:@GertvanderHoek ~~~ GertvanderHoek@gmail.com ~~~

              Comment


              • JJackson
                JJackson commented
                Editing a comment
                I do not think the trial results were as bad as this report implies. It was an enormous trial that took some time to complete, which is good, but at the time it was being designed it was unclear when it might be most effective and most of the cohort were given it too late. As an antiviral it should work best as a prophylactic or as early as possible. It is not available as a tablet so must be delivered by drip. By the time the patient is hospitalised the viral phase is largely over and it will have limited benefit. It is not a cheap treatment but could be very useful if we had enough testing to pickup those in high risk groups at symptom onset. For these cases even a small kick in the right direction could be life saving.

            • #87
              La réponse est peut-être à chercher du côté de l'agence officielle chinoise, qui ajoute qu'elle rapporte chaque année 500 milliards de dollars au pays. En hausse de 70% par rapport à 2017.
              https://www.europe1.fr/international...-chine-3999811

              Comment


              • #88
                bump this

                Comment


                • #90
                  Originally posted by Toaster2 View Post
                  But - and this is pure speculation - there is also something funny with the Argentina numbers (on Worldometer). Please check how the numbers of infected vs deaths deviate from each other over the last month or so. Is this a new strain taking over, hence the mortality gap ? Or is it just bad reporting of deaths ?
                  there was a big backlog some weeks ago in Argentina, earlier deaths reported on one day
                  I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                  my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                  Comment

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