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Discussion thread VI - COVID-19 (new coronavirus)

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  • I am interested in all the in-depth articles that will be written on the strategy deployed in India to fight against covid, because it concerns and will concern many countries ...

    May the best win ...

    Comment


    • (Opps, reposted below. I forgot to quote the article I was commenting on. I thought it was important to clarify that SARS-1 did not "just disappear.")

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Pathfinder View Post
        This article was written in September 2020

        The deadly viruses that vanished without trace

        By Zaria Gorvett
        ...
        Like its close relative Covid-19, Sars had many of the necessary qualities for world domination ? it was an RNA virus, meaning it was able to evolve rapidly, and it was spread through droplets expelled when breathing, which are hard to avoid. At the time, many experts were concerned that the virus could cause devastation on the same level as the HIV crisis, or even the 1918 flu pandemic, which infected a third of the world?s population and killed 50 million.

        Instead, Sars disappeared as abruptly as it arrived.
        ...
        Unfortunately this situation is extremely unusual. Other than Sars, only two other viruses have ever been driven to extinction on purpose ? smallpox and rinderpest, which affects cattle. ?It?s not trivial. It?s really very difficult when you have a virus that?s well adapted,? says Stanley Perlman, a microbiologist at the University of Iowa.
        ...
        ?Sars went away because there's no other obvious host,? says Perlman. Sars is thought to have made the leap to humans via a palm civet, a tree-dwelling jungle mammal that?s considered a delicacy in China. Perlman points out that the virus couldn?t just retreat back to this species, because they aren?t commonly infected ? the individual animal that gave it to a human was probably one of very few which were infected, and may have caught it directly from a bat.

        The same cannot be said for Covid-19... ?With Covid-19, the reservoir is now us,? says Perlman. In fact, it?s become so much of a human virus that scientists have begun to wonder if it will spread the other way around ? from humans to wildlife, in a kind of ?reverse spillover?, if you will. This would make it even harder to stamp out.

        This brings us to another possible scenario, which involves viruses that exist continuously in people. While they may well be with our species forever, it turns out individual lineages of virus vanish remarkably regularly.
        ...
        It turns out that anyone who died before 1893 will never have been infected with any of the influenza A strains that exist today. That?s because every flu virus that existed in humans until about 120 years ago has gone extinct. The strain that caused the 1918 pandemic has also disappeared, as has the one that led to the 1957 avian flu outbreak, which killed up to 116,000 people in the US, and the type of flu that was circulating in 2009, before swine flu emerged.
        ...
        https://www.bbc.com/future/article/2...and-go-extinct

        The article states that "Instead, Sars disappeared as abruptly as it arrived." But that is not true and I think it's important to understand and reinforce why it "went away."

        SARS-1 infected about 8,000 people and killed roughly 800. But it SARS-1 didn't disappear on its own. It was due to the hard work of professionals in the field of medicine and science who were finally able to put SARS down. There were literally hundreds if not thousands of people engaged in an epic coordinated effort across the world and importantly from China to Canada who worked tirelessly to contain SARS-1. They accomplished this through endless contact tracing and isolating of people with symptoms. One key difference between SARS-1 and SARS-2 is that people who had SARS-1 were not contagious until they began showing symptoms which made them much easier to find, isolate and run contact traces on.

        Here is a quote from https://theconversation.com/the-orig...he-same-138177
        "Why did the original Sars epidemic come to end? Well, SARS-CoV-1 did not burn itself out. Rather, the outbreak was largely brought under control by simple public health measures. Testing people with symptoms (fever and respiratory problems), isolating and quarantining suspected cases, and restricting travel all had an effect.

        SARS-CoV-1 was most transmissible when patients were sick, and so by isolating those with symptoms, you could effectively prevent onward spread. Nearly everybody on the planet would remain susceptible to Sars in the decades following its disappearance."

        Comment


        • Pathfinder
          Pathfinder commented
          Editing a comment
          Thank you for reposting this. This BBC article is excellent and deserves to be read in full.

          Here's more:
          ...
          Instead, Sars disappeared as abruptly as it arrived. By January 2004, there were just a handful of cases ? and by the end of month, the last suspected natural infection was announced. Oddly, while ?patient zero? describes the first known person to be infected with a virus, there is no equivalent label for the last ever person to catch it in the wild. But this would arguably apply to a 40-year-old man with the family name of ?Liu? from the southern city of Guangzhou. (There was another outbreak a couple of months later, when it is thought to have escaped from a Beijing research lab ? twice).

          So what happened?

          In a nutshell, we got lucky. According to Sarah Cobey, an epidemiologist at the University of Chicago, Sars was driven to extinction by a combination of sophisticated contact-tracing and the quirks of the virus itself.

          When patients with Sars got sick, they got very sick. The virus had a staggeringly high fatality rate ?almost one in five patients died ? but this meant that it was relatively easy to identify those who were infected, and quarantine them. There was no extra spread from people without symptoms, and as a bonus, Sars took a relatively long time to incubate before it became contagious, which gave contact-tracers extra time to find anyone who might be infected before they could pass it on.

          ?But also governments and institutions acted really fast,? says Cobey.
          ...

        • GardenSpider
          GardenSpider commented
          Editing a comment
          Thank you. Next time I will give it a full read!

      • What put me in a bad mood was the inventory of the WHO vaccination programs for adults, especially for tetanus.


        I then looked at the one of the influenzas



        This is an important subject for me, because we put pressure on animal producers, calling them often offensive terms.


        And now we want to add the coronaviruses.

        It seems urgent to me to become a little serious: the mismanagement that cannot be an objective. We are told this morning: we will live with:
        Emmanuel Macron assumes the choice to "live with" the Covid-19
        En entamant le déconfinement du pays alors que l’épidémie est encore à un niveau relativement élevé, le chef de l’Etat fait le pari d’un agenda positif.




        If globalization is that, it will not please for long ... If the research on the causes, with for some a goal of penal and or financial accountability put the brakes, it must stop. As in the case of mad cow disease:

        https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crise_...0crise%20de%20 la%20vache,de%20ce%20type%20de%20viande.

        Il faut maintenant des solutions mondiales , car le probl?me de par le comportement indigne des politiques, est mondial .

        Comment


        • Funny,
          No charter flight for Australia players at this moment: CA Chief Hockley


          For those who bake their bread and do not understand the marketting rules of distribution policies



          Comment


          • Australia Tells Its Citizens in India Amid Covid Crisis: Don?t Come Home


            Critics condemned the move to temporarily bar Australians, including children, as unnecessarily harsh, a violation of citizenship principles and a cultural double standard. Officials say the policy is necessary.

            snip



            --------------------------

            It is not what governments say that is important to watch, it is what they do.

            Comment


            • bertrand789
              bertrand789 commented
              Editing a comment
              I think I remember that we have soldiers in maneuver with the Hindus on the one hand and on the other hand many diplomats are walking everywhere, including New York, right?

          • I am making public my responses to all inquires while maintaining total confidentiality. Yesterday someone wrote to me about the COVID-19 vaccines.

            NOT MEDICAL ADVICE. IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS ABOUT COVID-19, VACCINES, ETC., CONTACT YOUR MEDICAL PRACTITIONER.

            -----------------------------------------------------------

            I share your concerns, not only about vaccines, but about all medicine. It seems there is no "free ride" - there are always side effects and complications to consider.

            I have no idea what the medium and long term effects of any of the COVID-19 vaccines may be. I guess we will find out over time.

            As to people's reaction to your decision....well...everyone has a right to their own decision. If you do not want to take the vaccine for valid concerns, others have the right to react for their own valid reasons. When I was still wearing masks outside, I got plenty of ugly stares. I was not making any political statement. I am high risk. A couple of times people were not nice to me and I felt compelled to tell them that I wear a mask because I am high risk. Then their attitude changed toward me. I got the vaccine but I completely respect someone else's decision not to take it. I do not wear a mask outside now because I am fully vaccinated and Florida's humid and sunny weather is very powerful this time of year. I still stand a few feet away, generally.

            Vaccines are not 100% effective and people should not think that just because they got the shot they are 100% protected. Everyone still needs to be aware of world and local events. I have no idea what the COVID-19 variants may mean for the future.

            Just as new antibiotic resistant bacteria strains have developed in recent years, new viruses emerge too. I am very careful when I get a cut now. In past years I would not rush to wash the cut and apply a salve. Now I stop what I am doing and I take care of the injury within minutes. Same with viruses. Protect yourself with the best means that you consider effective for you.

            Stay safe.

            Wishing you all the best.

            Comment


            • seen this
              Covid-19 may cause shortage of labor in NA pork sector
              https://www.pigprogress.net/World-of...intcmp=related -content & intcmp = related-content

              -----------------------

              I removed the rest below b/c the links did not go to anything. Something about pigs in the US and Canada, also something about bison...

              Please check links as posted to be sure that they connect to something.
              Last edited by sharon sanders; May 7, 2021, 10:45 AM. Reason: edited out incomplete statements and non-working links

              Comment


              • Related to:

                CDC - How COVID-19 Spreads ( Updated May 7, 2021)
                How COVID-19 Spreads Updated May 7, 2021 Languages https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/images/community/321769_neighborhoodBubble4_1080x1080-01.pngimage icon (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/images/community/321769_neighborhoodBubble4_1080x1080-01.png) COVID-19 spreads when an infected person breathes out



                The virus is an airborne threat, the C.D.C. acknowledges.

                By Roni Caryn Rabin and Emily Anthes
                May 7, 2021, 2:53 p.m. ET

                ...
                The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention now states explicitly ? in large, bold lettering ? that airborne virus can be inhaled even when one is more than six feet away from an infected individual. The new language, posted online, is a change from the agency?s previous position that most infections were acquired through ?close contact, not airborne transmission.?

                As the pandemic unfolded last year, infectious disease experts warned for months that both the C.D.C. and the World Health Organization were overlooking research that strongly suggested the coronavirus traveled aloft in small, airborne particles. Several scientists on Friday welcomed the agency?s scrapping of the term ?close contact,? which they criticized as vague and said did not necessarily capture the nuances of aerosol transmission.
                ...
                The new information has significant implications for indoor environments, and workplaces in particular, Dr. Michaels said. Virus-laden particles ?maintain their airborne properties for hours, and they accumulate in a room that doesn?t have good ventilation.?

                ?There?s more exposure closer up,? Dr. Michaels said. ?But when you?re further away, there?s still a risk, and also these particles stay in the air.?

                Donald Milton, an aerosol scientist at the University of Maryland, agreed that federal officials should provide better guidelines for keeping workplaces safe.

                ?We need better focus on good respirators for people who have to be close to other people for long periods of time,? Dr. Milton said.
                ...
                Dr. Marr pointed out that one updated page on the C.D.C. website, entitled ?How Covid-19 Spreads,? says that inhaling the virus when people are far apart is ?uncommon.? The statement is ?misleading and potentially harmful,? Dr. Marr said.

                ?If you?re in a poorly ventilated environment, virus is going to build up in the air, and everyone who?s in that room is going to be exposed.?





                "Safety and security don't just happen, they are the result of collective consensus and public investment. We owe our children, the most vulnerable citizens in our society, a life free of violence and fear."
                -Nelson Mandela

                Comment


                • Is The Variant From India The Most Contagious Coronavirus Mutant On The Planet?

                  May 7, 20213:24 PM ET
                  MICHAELEEN DOUCLEFF

                  Back in the fall, Tom Wenseleers made a bold claim on Twitter. He tweeted that the new coronavirus variant emerging in the U.K. was more transmissible ? or could spread more quickly ? than over versions of the virus.

                  "I posted a graph [on Twitter] showing the U.K. variant had a transmission advantage over the other types of the virus," says Wenseleers, who's an evolutionary biologist at the University of Leuven in Belgium.

                  At first, many scientists didn't believe his analysis. Many people thought the big COVID surge in England was due to holiday travel and shopping, he says. But after many follow-up studies, Wenseleers was proven correct. The variant from U.K., called B.1.1.7, is indeed more transmissible and likely the most contagious version of the virus known.

                  Now Wenseleers has performed similar analyses on data from India, and he's feeling a bit of a deja vu.

                  "Based on this data, the new variant from India has a very big transmission or growth advantage," even over B.1.1.7, he says. "It's kind of like the U.K. variant squared.

                  snip

                  https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsan...-on-the-planet

                  ------------------------

                  Also posted on the India thread found here: https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/...well-as-people

                  Comment




                  • suite ? ceci :

                    How will DRDO's anti-Covid drug work? All you need to know

                    https://www.hindustantimes.com/india...485063697.html


                    The oral drug has been developed by Institute of Nuclear Medicine and Allied Sciences, a lab of DRDO, in collaboration with Dr Reddy?s Laboratories, Hyderabad. Phase III clinical trial results have shown that this molecule helps in faster recovery of hospitalised patients and reduces supplemental oxygen dependence.
                    https://www.hindustantimes.com/india...461286695.html

                    Comment


                    • Translation Google

                      Coronavirus: The end of the mask for vaccinated people "would be premature" in France, says H?l?ne Rossinot

                      INTERVIEW H?l?ne Rossinot, medical specialist in public health, considers the lifting of the obligation to wear a mask for vaccinated people in the United States to be understandable. ?But that can only be done in countries where vaccination coverage is important,? she explains.

                      Interview by Fabrice Pouliquen
                      Posted on 05/14/21 4:23 PM - Updated 05/14/21 at 4:34 p.m.

                      Take off the masks! Americans vaccinated against Covid-19 no longer need to cover their mouths and noses indoors, health authorities announced Thursday.

                      "In theory, the decision of the American health authorities is good, and even rather logical", reacts H?l?ne Rossinot, medical specialist in public health, while pointing out some caveats.

                      It remains to be seen whether such a recommendation can be transposed in France. ?It seems premature to me,? replies H?l?ne Rossinot. We have not yet vaccinated enough people to take such a risk. "

                      Get vaccinated to hope for a return to normal life after more than a year now marked by the Covid-19 crisis ... In the United States , this promise has become even more concrete since the country's health authorities lifted on Thursday , their recommendation to wear a mask for vaccinated people.

                      They can now participate safely "in activities indoors and outdoors, small or large, without wearing a mask or respecting physical distancing," announced Rochelle Walensky, director of the Centers for the Prevention and Control of Diseases (CDC ) , the main federal public health agency. The American health authorities recommend that vaccinated people continue to wear a mask only in transport (planes, buses, trains, etc.), as well as in airports and train stations.

                      Is this strategy prudent? Can you imagine such a measure in France, especially to encourage to get vaccinated? Helen Rossinot, public health specialist, responds to 20 Minutes .

                      Does being fully vaccinated effectively dispense with wearing a mask and respecting physical distancing, as the United States has estimated?

                      In theory, the decision of the American health authorities is good and even rather logical. In practice, however, I find it hard to see how this new rule can be implemented. In other words: how do you check that people who no longer wear the mask have actually been vaccinated? We are on the declarative.

                      The American health authorities base their decisions on the latest scientific data, tending to show that vaccines are effective against the possibility of being infected, that of transmitting in turn, and against the spread of variants ... A good calculation?

                      Yes, vaccines can indeed be trusted, especially on the issue of variants. They protect us well against the ones we have now . I am specifying "at the present time". The question will be raised if new variants emerge in the coming weeks or months, which could also push the American authorities to review their recommendations.

                      I have more reservations, on the other hand, on the ?transmission? aspect. Of course, we know that people who are completely vaccinated, even if they are positive, transmit the disease less. But that doesn't mean they don't pass it on at all. It is therefore better to continue to wear the mask when in contact with people who have not yet been vaccinated or who are undergoing a particular treatment that makes them vulnerable to Covid-19, chemotherapy for example.


                      Can we imagine such a recommendation in France?

                      It seems premature to me to this day. This is another important point: people who have been vaccinated can only be allowed to dispense with masks in countries which have achieved significant vaccination coverage. This is undoubtedly the case in the United States [approximately 35% of the American population - or more than 117 million people - are fully vaccinated, editor's note]. In France, we have not yet vaccinated enough people to take this risk.

                      The government is only hoping to reach the 20 million first-time vaccines mark over the weekend. All the same, it seems important to me that we think about relaxing certain health instructions for people vaccinated in France. It would not shock me, for example, if the obligation to wear a mask was lifted for vaccinated people who were to meet with each other.

                      This possibility of doing without a mask could also be a strong argument to push the French to be vaccinated, right?
                      I don't think we've come to that in France. If the United States has better vaccination coverage than ours to date, it is mainly because they had more doses and they vaccinated faster. But to personally make many visits to the vaccination center, I do not have the impression that the French are more reluctant to vaccines than others and that more should be done to convince them to be vaccinated. As proof of this, I have my phone filled with messages from people asking me to call them if I hear about vacancies becoming available.

                      On the other hand, the question which arises is that of knowing how to convince the most reluctant to go to be vaccinated. This is particularly the problem that the United States are currently facing. They have reached a sort of plateau since May and the vaccination rate is now slowing down. The public authorities are then looking for the means to relaunch the campaign . Like the mayor of New York, Bill de Blasio, relaying the initiative of an American fast-food chain offering a tray of fries to vaccinated people. The decision of the American health authorities to lift the recommendation of the mask to vaccinated people undoubtedly falls within this context. But, once again, in France, we are not there yet.

                      Hélène Rossinot, médecin spécialiste en santé publique, juge compréhensible la levée de l’obligation du port du masque pour les vaccinés aux Etats-Unis. « Mais ça ne peut se faire que dans les pays où la couverture vaccinale est importante », précise-t-elle.


                      See also:
                      CDC relaxes mask guidance for fully vaccinated people - May 13, 2021

                      My bolding in red. When You?ve Been Fully Vaccinated How to Protect Yourself and Others Updated May 13, 2021 Choosing Safer Activities If you are fully vaccinated (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/fully-vaccinated.html#vaccinated), you can resume activities that you did prior to the pandemic. Fully
                      "Safety and security don't just happen, they are the result of collective consensus and public investment. We owe our children, the most vulnerable citizens in our society, a life free of violence and fear."
                      -Nelson Mandela

                      Comment


                      • En France , comme ailleurs, il faut un brin d'?thique. Pour moi, les scientifiques en sont absent , trop souvent;



                        Mr Cabrol me l'a propos?, j'avais refus?, car seules des mains qui allaient traiter des enfants devaient avoir le droit de d?couper des enfants frais ... Pour la petite histoire , j'ai appris l'anatomie sur des humains, pas sur des animaux , on ne savait plus faire ? Alfort ...

                        En France, il faut une publication des taux de maladies nosocomiales de tous les h?pitaux publics et priv?s , d'un cot? et de l'autre de tous les cluster industriels de l'autre ...

                        Devant la progression rapide des cas de COVID-19 chez les employés de Viandes du Breton à Rivière-du-Loup, dans le Bas-Saint-Laurent, la Santé publique de la région a demandé la fermeture…


                        Ce n'est pas simple de travailler dans un abattoir, tout comme de travailler dans un h?pital . Toutes les remarques n?gatives pour ces travailleurs sont une vraie honte , car le monde m?dical a fait et fait bien pire , de mon point de vue ...


                        Je me demande qui a le plus d'hygi?ne ?

                        Les faits existent , mais c'est un art de ne pas les montrer ...


                        Comment


                        • Jun 1918 genomes from Europe :



                          I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                          my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                          Comment


                          • le principal coupable ayant reconnu les faits ou sont les sanctions ?

                            The 60-Year-Old Scientific Screwup That Helped Covid Kill

                            All pandemic long, scientists brawled over how the virus spreads. Droplets! No, aerosols! At the heart of the fight was a teensy error with huge consequences.


                            Ce serait bien de nous expliquer les cons?quences en terme de qualification de laboratoire et d'agent virus ?

                            En effet, c'est bien d'?crire que cela va permettre que ses enfants puissent faire du sport dans des lieux plus sains, mais cela ne concerne pas que les lieux de sport .


                            Les immeubles ? x ?tages ont des syst?mes de ventilation prenant en compte ce fait scientique ?

                            les avions vont continuer ? vider leurs toilettes dans les airs ?

                            la liste est tr?s longue ...

                            She started talking to Kimberly Prather, an atmospheric chemist at UC San Diego, who had the ear of prominent public health leaders within the CDC and on the White House Covid Task Force. In July, the two women sent slides to Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institutes of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. One of them showed the trajectory of a 5-micron particle released from the height of the average person?s mouth. It went farther than 6 feet?hundreds of feet farther. A few weeks later, speaking to an audience at Harvard Medical School, Fauci admitted that the 5-micron distinction was wrong?and had been for years. ?Bottom line is, there is much more aerosol than we thought,? he said. (Fauci declined to be interviewed for this story.)



                            Quand il est prouv? que le risque n'?tait pas maitris? , comment envisager que les accidents n'ont pas eu lieu ?

                            Comment


                            • gsgs
                              gsgs commented
                              Editing a comment
                              I remember, we had 10micron, when discussing masks in _2007
                              in the German meat-factory-study they found 6m as critical distance

                            • bertrand789
                              bertrand789 commented
                              Editing a comment
                              gsgs : it is important to look at the differences in approach between the O.I.E depending on the O.M.C and the F.A.O depending on the O.N.U. the silence of the F.A.O is inflicting
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