Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Discussion thread VI - COVID-19 (new coronavirus)

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • bump this

    Comment




    • Memphis surgeon dies of COVID-related illness weeks after receiving second COVID vaccine

      He died of the syndrome they think some kids get after mild COVID exposure. I don't see how they can rule out a variant clash with the vaccine antibodies if they don't know what virus he had.
      _____________________________________________

      Ask Congress to Investigate COVID Origins and Government Response to Pandemic.

      i love myself. the quietest. simplest. most powerful. revolution ever. ---- nayyirah waheed

      "...there’s an obvious contest that’s happening between different sectors of the colonial ruling class in this country. And they would, if they could, lump us into their beef, their struggle." ---- Omali Yeshitela, African People’s Socialist Party

      (My posts are not intended as advice or professional assessments of any kind.)
      Never forget Excalibur.

      Comment


      • JJackson
        JJackson commented
        Editing a comment
        Emily I have been writing a series of posts in the immunity thread in my workshop which are getting into this area in more detail.
        If you keep an eye on this thread https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/...id-19-immunity I plan to add more posts. In the next I aim to write about B cell maturation in the germinal centers and the role of somatic hypermutation in the refinement of IgG affinity but the first 3 posts have been laying the necessary ground work.
        As these posts explain there have been some engineered changes in the S gene but they relate to the Spike's cleavage and will have little impact on antibodies produced. The only change that would have an effect you may be able to detect in the blood work relates a change in the ratio of antibodies produced to a slight conformational change across the RBD that occurs post cleavage of the s1/s2 loop. I very much doubt this is what they are observing as it requires ELISA assays very few labs could do. A more likely explanation is they found the usual panel of non spike antibodies had declined over time but the Spike antibodies were disproportionally higher due to these being the only ones that got a boost from a spike only vaccine.

        ADE and OAS are different. In ADE you are getting an adverse reaction at infection from an earlier vaccination. There are a number of different mechanisms relating to the different vaccines that have induced it but I do not think it is a concern in these COVID vaccines as none of the known mechanisms are applicable. OAS is when the immune system is reactivating a response to a previous infection that is not quite the same and a poor match. As it has these 'not quite right' antibodies it persists in trying to use them where as if they had not had the previous infection it would be making a better matched antibody but would take longer to get them into mass production. Each Effector B cells (AKA Plasma Cells) can produce IgG at a rate of 1 per millisecond and you have a lot of them. The promised post, I have not written yet, will explain how the maturation of B cells is designed to correct the OAS problem and deals with the variants in SARS-CoV-2 as they arise.

      • Emily
        Emily commented
        Editing a comment
        JJackson,
        Thank you very much for explaining the difference between ADE and OAS and the fine points of analyzing COVID antibodies. It sounds like there is a good basis for the findings in the Memphis surgeon's death as far as the sequence of events - the infection preceded at least one of the vaccine doses then.
        I will keep an eye on your thread. A lot of it is over my head but I'll be happy to learn what I can. I like your optimism about the variant strain issue.

      • JJackson
        JJackson commented
        Editing a comment
        Emily, and anyone else interested, I have now posted (post #14 in this thread https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/...id-19-immunity ) the promised post on B cells.

    • deux questions:

      - la premi?re , vu ceci : https://www.epi-phare.fr/app/uploads...9_20210209.pdf
      comment d?finir la cause de mortalit? en cas de facteurs de risques av?r?s :

      dit de fa?on simple : il y a un code cim covid unique, ou l'on accepte et ou doit de faire cohabiter les x codes CIM av?r?s ?

      Ceci implique que l'O.M.S parle de synd?mie et non d'?pi et ou de pand?mie ...



      - la deuxi?me ( je ne peut l'?crire qu'en langue de Moli?re , d?sol? )

      allo Docteur ,

      comme il n'y a pas de m?dicament, vous acceptez de me traiter ?

      et ou de me prescrire un ou des traitements ?

      ou je dois aller voir un traiteur ?

      Comment


    • un cas concret :


      Si tous les Allemands de plus de 50 ans prenaient des suppl?ments de vitamine D, on estime que l'on pourrait ?viter jusqu'? 30 000 d?c?s par cancer par an dans ce pays.

      Si tous les Allemands de plus de 50 ans prenaient des suppléments de vitamine D, on estime que l'on pourrait éviter jusqu'à 30 000 décès par cancer par an dans ce pays..


      C'est quoi les chiffres am?ricains, puis de tous les pays de l'O.M.S ?

      Comment


      • all these waves going up and down just like normal epidemic waves - is there immunity involved ?
        Despite only 10% or such infected in a wave.
        It looks unlikely that this is just driven by stricter avoidance of risks, of contacts as the wave proceeds.
        We see it in 3rd world countries as well.
        And with seasonal flu - there are usually also only 10%-20% infected.
        In the severe fall-wave in 2009 just 30M were infected in USA


        OTOH in Manaos,Bergamo >50% were infected, 30% in NYC in spring





        I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
        my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

        Comment


        • kiwibird
          kiwibird commented
          Editing a comment
          GS - Looking around at people in my own personal life - I can see colleagues in different businesses and families who are not concerned by the pandemic becoming ill. The people who are careful and wear masks tend not to. This is just from my own observation. I think it comes in waves partly because people become scared, take precautions - and then some of them - choose not to take precautions. Most maskless companies we deal with have had a complete surge and the entire company has become infected. I drove past a large company that makes PPE this morning - and there were a dozen ladies gathered around a canteen table having a cup of tea/coffee... They wear masks on the floor - but not in the canteen. No windows open either. It is just a matter of time before someone who is ill sits down at that table. It is just a numbers game.

        • pomeagher
          pomeagher commented
          Editing a comment
          Agree with kiwi bird. Personal observation. Here in Australia it would be fair to say that public concern is in waves and social distancing and mask wearing increases when we have a little bit of community transmission. When the numbers drop back to zero, less social distancing and mask wearing all but ceases. As is the case now. Australia and NZ would be good examples of behaviour following increased transmission due to our very low case numbers.

        • gsgs
          gsgs commented
          Editing a comment
          I'd expect more zigzag ups and downs if it's just people's behaviour

      • au fait maintenant que l'on sait qu'au d?but il n'y avait pas une , mais : "elon Embarek, l'?quipe a ?galement ?tabli qu'il y avait d?j? plus d'une douzaine de souches du nouveau coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, en circulation en d?cembre"



        les tests PCR fonctionnaient pour les douze souches ou ?

        La sous question pourrait ?tre: se lancer dans un vaccin sans savoir de quoi il retourne c'est sympa ...

        Comment



        • UK Study Finds New Covid-19 Variant May Be More Deadly - NERVTAG update February 11, 2021

          Comment


          • We know that humidity has an effect on Covid transmission - probably due to precipitation of aerosols from the atmosphere along with small droplets. Temperature appears to have less of an effect, although virus is longer lived in very cold conditions, which are prevalent across large swathes of the N. Hemisphere at the moment. UV radiation levels also would appear to have a damping down effect, which may account for the late spring / summer lull we saw last year, but it is far too early in the season for raised UV radiation levels. One of the other biggest transmission factors is human behaviour, and tendency to gather in crowds indoors in poorly ventilated spaces increases transmission.. so could recent significant falls in case numbers be due to cold weather and people staying indoors with family more, i.e staying more isolated perhaps?

            However, even with all those factors considered, the case loads have also been falling hard across the N. Hemisphere where current environmental conditions might suggest that transmission should be increased, and we are also seeing falls in areas where lockdown measures have not been very severe, and overall seroprevalence is low. So why is this happening?

            Whilst searching for an answer, I wondered if space weather could have anything to do with it (its the only thing that could have influenced the whole N. Hemisphere at the same time that I can think of) but data is sketchy, and it is quite a bit of a 'reach'. https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/...gion-2797.html.

            It is too soon for vaccines to have had such a marked effect across such a large geographical area also.

            Any ideas anyone? It certainly is a puzzle...

            Comment


            • gsgs
              gsgs commented
              Editing a comment
              we are in lockdown, awaiting B.1.1.7.
              That may explain the decline in most of North America and Europe.
              Or maybe also immunity from the wave starting in October
              Or the warm weather in Dec.+Jan

            • Vibrant62
              Vibrant62 commented
              Editing a comment
              Thanks to Tetano for these - provides some extra background information on transmission & environmental factors
              1. https://link.springer.com/article/10...07-021-00243-w
              2. https://www.sciencedirect.com/scienc...15X?via%3Dihub

            • sharon sanders
              sharon sanders commented
              Editing a comment
              For those who do not know, Gsgs is located in Germany. I have noticed over the years that these type of global outbreaks come in waves as the virus runs out of new fuel. Many European countries have been in strict lockdowns since December. If you keep humans from interacting with each other, they will not transmit infectious diseases to each other. Plus, pomeagher has a good point.

          • bump this

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Vibrant62 View Post
              We know that humidity has an effect on Covid transmission - probably due to precipitation of aerosols from the atmosphere along with small droplets. Temperature appears to have less of an effect, although virus is longer lived in very cold conditions, which are prevalent across large swathes of the N. Hemisphere at the moment. UV radiation levels also would appear to have a damping down effect, which may account for the late spring / summer lull we saw last year, but it is far too early in the season for raised UV radiation levels. One of the other biggest transmission factors is human behaviour, and tendency to gather in crowds indoors in poorly ventilated spaces increases transmission.. so could recent significant falls in case numbers be due to cold weather and people staying indoors with family more, i.e staying more isolated perhaps?

              However, even with all those factors considered, the case loads have also been falling hard across the N. Hemisphere where current environmental conditions might suggest that transmission should be increased, and we are also seeing falls in areas where lockdown measures have not been very severe, and overall seroprevalence is low. So why is this happening?

              Whilst searching for an answer, I wondered if space weather could have anything to do with it (its the only thing that could have influenced the whole N. Hemisphere at the same time that I can think of) but data is sketchy, and it is quite a bit of a 'reach'. https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/...gion-2797.html.

              It is too soon for vaccines to have had such a marked effect across such a large geographical area also.

              Any ideas anyone? It certainly is a puzzle...
              https://www.news-medical.net/news/20210214/Humidity-created-inside-the-face-masks-may-help-combat-COVID-19.aspx Humidity created inside the face masks may help combat COVID-19 https://scitechdaily.com/nih-researchers-humidity-from-masks-may-lessen-severity-of-covid-19/ NIH Researchers: Humidity From Masks May Lessen


              I should think that humidity is certainly a factor - to be sure - no-one in the UK - or it looks like Europe and much of North America - are getting much in the way of natural D3! Still cold and people stuck indoors.
              "The only security we have is our ability to adapt."

              Comment


            • US COVID-19 Cases Caused by Variants

              Updated Feb. 18, 2021

              Variant -- Reported Cases in US -- Number of States Reporting


              MAP:
              https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...ant-cases.html

              Comment


              • my projection for Denmark : http://magictour.free.fr/dnk06.GIF

                it reminds me, that several historical severe (flu?) outbreaks occurred in April,May
                New variants need time to grow, when they emerge in fall or winter
                I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                Comment


                • gsgs
                  gsgs commented
                  Editing a comment
                  Feb20 , % sequences with N501Y:
                  UK:53,DK:22,US:08,CH:20,NL:27,F:53,E:26,B:35,ICE:1 5,LUX:20,
                  I:69,IRE:79,DE:13,POR:33,SW:42,AUT:27,N:26,SA:37,
                  LIT:00,AUS:60,ISR:27,FIN:38,CZ:25,CDN:56,
                  TUR:03,POL:11,HUN:99,IND:33,BRA:00:,SLK:79
                  EGY:03,NIG:68,MAC:00,SGP:18,GHA:46,ARU:49
                  CoVariants: Plots of Frequencies by Country

              • Originally posted by Vibrant62 View Post
                We know that humidity has an effect on Covid transmission - probably due to precipitation of aerosols from the atmosphere along with small droplets. Temperature appears to have less of an effect, although virus is longer lived in very cold conditions, which are prevalent across large swathes of the N. Hemisphere at the moment. UV radiation levels also would appear to have a damping down effect, which may account for the late spring / summer lull we saw last year, but it is far too early in the season for raised UV radiation levels. One of the other biggest transmission factors is human behaviour, and tendency to gather in crowds indoors in poorly ventilated spaces increases transmission.. so could recent significant falls in case numbers be due to cold weather and people staying indoors with family more, i.e staying more isolated perhaps?

                However, even with all those factors considered, the case loads have also been falling hard across the N. Hemisphere where current environmental conditions might suggest that transmission should be increased, and we are also seeing falls in areas where lockdown measures have not been very severe, and overall seroprevalence is low. So why is this happening?

                Whilst searching for an answer, I wondered if space weather could have anything to do with it (its the only thing that could have influenced the whole N. Hemisphere at the same time that I can think of) but data is sketchy, and it is quite a bit of a 'reach'. https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/...gion-2797.html.

                It is too soon for vaccines to have had such a marked effect across such a large geographical area also.

                Any ideas anyone? It certainly is a puzzle...
                Herd immunity?


                OPINION COMMENTARY


                We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April

                Covid cases have dropped 77% in six weeks. Experts should level with the public about the good news.

                By Marty Makary
                Feb. 18, 2021 12:35 pm ET

                Amid the dire Covid warnings, one crucial fact has been largely ignored: Cases are down 77% over the past six weeks. If a medication slashed cases by 77%, we’d call it a miracle pill. Why is the number of cases plummeting much faster than experts predicted?

                In large part because natural immunity from prior infection is far more common than can be measured by testing. Testing has been capturing only from 10% to 25% of infections, depending on when during the pandemic someone got the virus. Applying a time-weighted case capture average of 1 in 6.5 to the cumulative 28 million confirmed cases would mean about 55% of Americans have natural immunity.

                Now add people getting vaccinated. As of this week, 15% of Americans have received the vaccine, and the figure is rising fast. Former Food and Drug Commissioner Scott Gottlieb estimates 250 million doses will have been delivered to some 150 million people by the end of March.

                There is reason to think the country is racing toward an extremely low level of infection. As more people have been infected, most of whom have mild or no symptoms, there are fewer Americans left to be infected. At the current trajectory, I expect Covid will be mostly gone by April, allowing Americans to resume normal life.
                ...

                Dr. Makary is a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Medicine and Bloomberg School of Public Health, chief medical adviser to Sesame Care, and author of “The Price We Pay.”...

                "Safety and security don't just happen, they are the result of collective consensus and public investment. We owe our children, the most vulnerable citizens in our society, a life free of violence and fear."
                -Nelson Mandela

                Comment


                • Vibrant62
                  Vibrant62 commented
                  Editing a comment
                  I don't think that herd immunity is an achievable goal personally, as the virus will just evolve to evade immunity (as we are seeing I think in places like Manaus)- UNLESS there is a point at which the virus is unable to reconfigure and remain viable. I have taken a look and can find no example of any coronavirus where herd immunity is gained in any population - animal or human, so cannot think of a reason why this would occur here. I guess only time will answer that question.

              • According to this source the US hospitalizations and deaths have dramatically dropped in recent weeks:

                US - Approximately 59,882 people currently hospitalized, and 2,477 deaths for February 19, 2021

                Comment

                Working...
                X