Discussion thread VI - COVID-19 (new coronavirus)

[Mary Wilson]

Human Vaccines Project
HPV Covid Report

Can Changing COVID Vaccine Regimens End the Pandemic Faster?

January 15 2021
By Kristen Jill Abboud

With SARS-CoV-2 still infecting, sickening, and killing a staggering number of people worldwide, and only limited quantities of recently authorized vaccines available, countries are considering ways to vaccinate more people as quickly as possible.

https://mailchi.mp/humanvaccinesproject/covid-report-vaccine-development-1574777

[sharon sanders]

There is a controversy today about whether people who have had the COVID-19, or have been vaccinated, can stop wearing a mask.

I think it is not clear yet how well the various COVID-19 vaccines actually protect people. We also do not know what the evolution of the virus means as it spreads through the populations. Unfortunately we will have to wait and see. It takes a while to fully evaluate all new vaccines once they are distributed en masse.

I have seen many vaccine "escapes" and outright failures over the years. It is probably better to err on the side of caution.

From the CDC:

"It’s important for everyone to continue using all the tools available to help stop this pandemic as we learn more about how COVID-19 vaccines work in real-world conditions. Cover your mouth and nose with a mask when around others, stay at least 6 feet away from others, avoid crowds, and wash your hands often."

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019.../8-things.html

[sharon sanders]

"Dachshunds" is trending on Twitter tonight but we do not provide content to Twitter anymore so I am posting here.

She is a great pandemic stress breaker.

[Emily]

She's beautiful! Here's something I saw in Twitter. I refrained from posting but since it's dogs...

https://twitter.com/matchracer/status/1279090859770863616

See reply "Parked next to these guys while waiting for a covid test."

[JJackson]

Timetree - http://www.timetree.org/

Not specifically COVID related but I have found a useful online tool (also available as an app) which solves a longtime problem I have had in finding dates on the phylogenic tree of all life. This allows you to do a number of things, enter a taxon (e.g. Vertebrate), Two taxa (Birds & Mammals - see fig. below) or build a tree from a group of taxa.



While I said it was not directly related to COVID I have been looking for this information as it relates to SARS-CoV-2 and our cell biology and immune system and how good various animal models are likely to be. Things like when did ACE2 receptors first appear and how much divergence occurred before bats separated from the rest of the mammals and how much divergence occurred post-separation.

[gsgs]

you can ask such things in the seqanswers.com or biostars.org forums.
I wasn't there since long .... should try again.

[sharon sanders]

med-Rxiv - Epidemiology of post-COVID syndrome following hospitalisation with coronavirus: a retrospective cohort study

[Mary Wilson]

Florida to start requiring proof of residency for COVID-19 vaccinations

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is cracking down on what's known as "vaccine tourism."

By Erin Schumaker
January 20, 2021, 3:26 PM

Starting Wednesday, people who show up for vaccines in Seminole County, Florida, will be asked to show their Florida ID or a utility bill in order to get the shot, according to ABC News Orlando affiliate WFTV. The new policy, which applies to state-run vaccination sites, will later be extended to other counties in the state.

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/florida-start-requiring-proof-residency-covid-19-vaccinations/story?id=75367026

[sharon sanders]

bump this

[JJackson]

This YouTube link is to a good JAMA discussion that covers a number of topics relevant to this thread. They look at one dose vs two doses, the timing of the doses, vaccine availability and the reasons behind the 'vaccine in freezers problem', how many people need to be vaccinated to drastically reduce hospitalizations and, important to FluTrackers, messaging.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XrHbBolmmqc

[Emily]

Interesting, JJackson, thanks. The references at about 20:33 comparing vaccine allocation to Vietnam lotteries and Shirley Jackson's insighful short story are disconcerting considering the 'prizes' in those lotteries. Very honest, though.

https://www.sss.gov/history-and-records/vietnam-lotteries/

https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&p...MzBkZDdiYTVkZg.

[Emily]

Some positive trends in the US. Wonder if it is just numbers settling from holiday visiting.

https://www.ft.com/content/4eb6c2e0-676c-388c-afee-49ab1d617fcd

https://apnews.com/article/pandemics-europe-coronavirus-pandemic-germany-coronavirus-vaccine-70b5db8396ff184ff7ce40a822344282

[sharon sanders]

I changed a couple of notices on the site regarding masks. There are no studies yet about how well surgical, homemade masks, N95, etc. work against the more transmissible variants of COVID-19.

There is no advice about possibly doubling surgical masks.....standing further away than 6 feet....stronger hand sani....just do not know.

As usual - use your common sense.

[sharon sanders]

more groan...I hope I am really screwing up the math.....

I saw a media article a couple of days ago where doctors were complaining that the age group was younger so I thought I would check it out.

from National Institute of Demographic Studies (INED) who says their sources are official government numbers from various countries. link

According to their excel spreadsheets:


COVID-19 deaths weeks 1 through 38 (2020) in the UK in age group 44-64 = 5,049 / 38 weeks = 133 average deaths in the 44-64 age group per week

COVID-19 deaths week 1 (2021) in the UK, with the emergence of B.1.1.7, in age group 44-64 = 657 deaths in the 44-64 age group for week 1.

https://dc-covid.site.ined.fr/en/data/uk

--------------------------------------------

[JJackson]

Sharon while the deaths you quoted look bad it is due to there being a lot more COVID cases now than then.

Rejigging the math - In the first 38 weeks the UK was averaging just under 10,000 cases a week giving a death per case of about 1.4%. In week 1 of this year it was about 385,000 cases giving 0.17% i.e. you were 8 times as likely to die in early 2020 than you are now.
What this does not fully cover is any change it the ratio between the 45-64 and other age groups as I only had the total cases data not the numbers by age group for the two time periods.
(I extracted the data from Worldometers.com )

[Emily]

Higher child infections seem related to overall caseload and social restrictions in states.

https://www.fox10phoenix.com/news/hundreds-of-children-being-admitted-to-arizona-hospitals-for-covid-19

She shared data by Jama Network showing how pediatric numbers relating to COVID-19 have trended in Arizona. Jama Network looked at trends where children are being diagnosed with COVID-19 in 22 states, including Arizona.

"At the beginning of the study, the average cumulative hospitalization rate per 100 000 children was 2.0, increasing to 17.2 by the end of the study," the study reads.

At the end of the study, Arizona ranked as one of two hot spots for children contracting COVID-19. "Hawaii and New Hampshire had the lowest rates at 4.3 and 3.4 per 100 000 respectively and South Dakota and Arizona had the highest rates at 33.7 and 32.8 per 100 000."

The study looked at numbers between the dates May 15, 2020, and November 15, 2020.

[sharon sanders]

@JJackson..agree...this is why I did not represent that a move from 133 deaths to 657 deaths per week is in actuality a 5X death rate. It is not. I was merely comparing relative overall death numbers.

[kiwibird]

There is a controversy today about whether people who have had the COVID-19, or have been vaccinated, can stop wearing a mask.

I think it is not clear yet how well the various COVID-19 vaccines actually protect people. We also do not know what the evolution of the virus means as it spreads through the populations. Unfortunately we will have to wait and see. It takes a while to fully evaluate all new vaccines once they are distributed en masse.

I have seen many vaccine "escapes" and outright failures over the years. It is probably better to err on the side of caution.

From the CDC:

"It’s important for everyone to continue using all the tools available to help stop this pandemic as we learn more about how COVID-19 vaccines work in real-world conditions. Cover your mouth and nose with a mask when around others, stay at least 6 feet away from others, avoid crowds, and wash your hands often."

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019.../8-things.html

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55784199

People who have received a Covid-19 vaccine could still pass the virus on to others and should continue following lockdown rules, England's deputy chief medical officer has warned.

Writing in the Sunday Telegraph, Prof Jonathan Van-Tam stressed that scientists "do not yet know the impact of the vaccine on transmission".

He said vaccines offer "hope" but infection rates must come down quickly.

A further 32 vaccine sites are set to open across England this week.

Prof Van-Tam said "no vaccine has ever been" 100% effective, so there is no guaranteed protection.

[sharon sanders]

FluTrackers.com
@FluTrackers
?
1h
Also - we do not know what increased protective measures should be taken with variants that are more transmissible. There are no studies yet.

Double surgical & homemade masks? Hand sani? More distance?

What? Use your common sense.


#COVID19 #coronavirus
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FluTrackers.com
@FluTrackers
?
1h
No one can predict the future but...

Please read - One new Covid-19 coronavirus variant, B.1.1.7, may become
the dominant strain and is more transmissible and is possibly deadlier -
Osterholm podcast, Campbell video, some math..

https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/905045-please-read-one-new-covid-19-coronavirus-variant-b-1-1-7-may-become-the-dominant-strain-and-is-more-transmissible-and-is-possibly-deadlier-osterholm-campbell…

#COVID19 #coronavirus
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FluTrackers.com
@FluTrackers
?
Jan 24

[sharon sanders]

January 23, 2021

I changed a couple of notices on the site regarding masks. There are no studies yet about how well surgical, homemade masks, N95, etc. work against the more transmissible variants of COVID-19.

There is no advice about possibly doubling surgical masks.....standing further away than 6 feet....stronger hand sani....just do not know.

As usual - use your common sense.

Apparently Fauci came out in support of double masking today (January 25, 2021):


snip


Could wearing two face masks at once during the pandemic provide more protection than just wearing one? According to White House advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci, “it likely does,” he told NBC News’ TODAY on Monday.

As Fauci explained, masks are physical coverings that prevent respiratory droplets from spreading to other people and provide a degree of protection to the wearer.

“So if you have a physical covering with one layer, you put another layer on, it just makes common sense that it likely would be more effective,” Fauci told TODAY. “That’s the reason why you see people either double masking or doing a version of an N95.”

more...

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/25/dr-f...effective.html

[blacknail]

Our hospital is now in outbreak and it is unknown if it is a VOC but contact tracing isn't working the way it has up until now. Public health has redefined a close contact with a confirmed case as now any length of time within 6 feet of a C19+ case who isn't wearing a medical-grade mask when the contact isn't wearing N95+eye protection.