Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Age distribution of NZ cases, travel history and time sequence for 23 Mar - 7 Apr.

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Age distribution of NZ cases, travel history and time sequence for 23 Mar - 7 Apr.

    ​​​​​Age distribution of confirmed cases in New Zealand (https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/...-current-cases). Almost all of the cases are travel related or associated with travelers but does include two confirmed community transmissions.


    Click image for larger version  Name:	Covid-1923032020Chart.jpg Views:	1 Size:	106.4 KB ID:	840482


    This reflects the ages of travelers in New Zealand and will likely change as the disease progresses. The numbers may include tourists in the country, many of whom ignored instructions to self-isolate and therefore pose a heightened risk of initiating community spread.
    "Bother!" said Pooh.

  • #2
    Here is an updated chart of the confirmed cases in New Zealand. Our MoH is now reporting both confirmed and suspected cases. Suspected cases have symptoms but negative This set includes our first 4 confirmed community spread cases. These are the cases which triggered our going from a "be careful" state to a full lock down state, although ours is not as restrictive as those in China or Italy. We won't be getting the army or armed police unless the population fails to cooperate. At this stage we still have supermarkets and petrol stations open and we can move around a bit, but not interact. As our population is a lot less dense than either Italy or China, we may get away with this.

    Click image for larger version

Name:	Covid-1924032020Chart.jpg
Views:	272
Size:	38.3 KB
ID:	840603

    It is interesting that the distribution is starting to fill in with growth in the 30s and 50s groups. We also have our first case in an aged care facility which is possibly the case in their 80s. As we have seen in the US, cases in aged care facilities are quite devastating. However, at this stage we still have no cases in ICU and only 6 in hospital. We have also had 12 recoveries so far so the situation is relatively good right now.
    Attached Files
    "Bother!" said Pooh.

    Comment


    • #3
      Here are today's numbers. Today the update was at 14:00 which is much earlier than the last couple of days, which is a really good sign. The total count has gone up by 50 to 202 total cases and 189 confirmed cases. Once again I have charted only the confirmed cases as the criteria for probable cases is that they have the symptoms but test negative, which, given that the symptoms are shared by other diseases makes them very unreliable.We also now have 22 recovered and 6 in hospital, none in ICU.

      All but 4 cases are still travel related (travelers or contact with travelers) so community spread is still appears to not be wide spread. The growth in cases is also not as high as we might expect for community spread.

      Click image for larger version

Name:	Covid-1925032020Chart.jpg
Views:	246
Size:	37.8 KB
ID:	840897
      Interesting in this chart compared with yesterday is the growth in the 20s age group. This suggests that the last home were the younger travelers and perhaps that they were less careful before they got home. This would tend to match with behavior seen in other countries.
      Attached Files
      "Bother!" said Pooh.

      Comment


      • #4
        Sadly the Ministry of Health has decided to stop releasing the case summary so I can't do the age distributions any more. The only breakdown is by general geographic area now. Today we have 262 confirmed cases and 21 suspected cases so a climb of 73 cases in the past 24 hrs. There appear to be a number of clusters and more suspected community spread cases although the confirmed community cases are still at 4. We also have a 7th hospitalised case and 27 recovered cases, still no ICU cases.
        "Bother!" said Pooh.

        Comment


        • #5
          Further to yesterday's post, the MoH has now posted confirmed numbers for 26 Mar which I present here. The 20s age group is definitely on the rise and is now the largest group.

          Click image for larger version

Name:	Covid-1926032020Chart.jpg
Views:	196
Size:	38.3 KB
ID:	841819

          Today's briefing had us at 368 total cases and they are now charting by age group for total cases (confirmed and probable) here https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/...-current-cases as well as mapping by DHB (District Health Board) area.

          There are currently 8 cases in Hospital and we now have one in ICU. 37 cases have recovered with no deaths. We still have 4 confirmed community transmissions but likely more; the vast majority of cases are still travel related or associated.
          "Bother!" said Pooh.

          Comment


          • #6
            Yesterdays update (28 Mar) shows continued growth in the 20-29 age group relative to other groups and again the bulk of the cases are travel related or associated. We are also getting a steady stream of recoveries. Hospitalization is still rare, under 2 %.

            Click image for larger version

Name:	Covid-1928032020Chart.jpg
Views:	187
Size:	39.0 KB
ID:	842605
            "Bother!" said Pooh.

            Comment


            • #7
              The chart below again shows strong growth in the 20-29 age group and that the 30-39 group are catching up. This shows that the suggestion that younger people are not affected by the disease is not entirely accurate. While the numbers are still heavily influenced by travel we are seeing increasing numbers of cases from contact with travelers rather than actual travelers.

              Note that in this graph the first 4 columns are not 10 year divisions but 1 and then 5 year groups.

              Click image for larger version

Name:	Covid-1929032020Chart.jpg
Views:	145
Size:	42.5 KB
ID:	842905
              "Bother!" said Pooh.

              Comment


              • #8
                New charts for New Zealand for 30 Mar 2020. This time the MoH has provided travel status information so I've done charts for three possible conditions; Overseas, not overseas and unspecified, which may be overseas travel, but no flight details yet.

                In summary, we now have 552 confirmed cases, 12 in hospital, one death and 63 recovered cases.

                Click image for larger version

Name:	Covid-1930032020Chart.jpg
Views:	69
Size:	39.8 KB
ID:	843001
                Click image for larger version

Name:	Covid-1930032020ChartUnSpec.jpg
Views:	67
Size:	32.8 KB
ID:	843002

                Click image for larger version

Name:	Covid-1930032020ChartNo.jpg
Views:	69
Size:	35.5 KB
ID:	843003

                Click image for larger version

Name:	Covid-1930032020ChartOverseas.jpg
Views:	67
Size:	33.7 KB
ID:	843004

                While the overall chart for cases shows pretty much the same trend as previous days, the breakdown by travel history is quite interesting as it shows that the majority of the 20-29 cases are from overseas, the other age groups are a mix which may indicate that many of the older cases were from contact with returning younger travelers. It is also encouraging as it does NOT suggest that our younger citizens are ignoring the physical isolation instructions, except in isolated cases.

                One glaring example to the contrary is a Catholic school where we have our biggest cluster of 47 cases and where the students were rumored to be ignoring the self isolation instructions and continuing to congregate and mix.All adults and students of this school together with their parents are now likely infected and this cluster is likely to grow rapidly in the coming week.
                "Bother!" said Pooh.

                Comment


                • #9
                  The summary of our position as at 1st of April is as follows:
                  Number of confirmed cases in New Zealand 647 47
                  Number of probable cases 61 14
                  Number of confirmed and probable cases 708 61
                  Number of cases in hospital 16 -
                  Number of recovered cases 82 8
                  Number of deaths 1

                  The charts for the 1st are below.

                  Click image for larger version

Name:	Covid-1901042020Chart.jpg
Views:	57
Size:	35.2 KB
ID:	844248
                  You will notice that the Unknown case has gone, which I assume means the age was determined and the case was re-assigned. Oddly we have also lost the one infant case (<1 year) for which i have no explanation, perhaps an error in previous data.

                  Click image for larger version

Name:	Covid-1901042020ChartUnSpec.jpg
Views:	58
Size:	35.0 KB
ID:	844249

                  Click image for larger version

Name:	Covid-1901042020ChartNo.jpg
Views:	56
Size:	35.9 KB
ID:	844250

                  Click image for larger version

Name:	Covid-1901042020ChartOverseas.jpg
Views:	56
Size:	32.8 KB
ID:	844251


                  There isn't a whole lot to say about these charts. The dominance of the 20-29 age group in the overseas travel group continues while changes in the distribution of the other two probably represents re-assignment of cases from the unknown group to one of the other two. Overall, overseas travel still accounts for over half of our cases.
                  "Bother!" said Pooh.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Here are the charts from 3 April 2020. Unfortunately I don't have the summary info for the 3rd as the source web site was updated before I copied it. The charts are pretty much a continuation of previous trends except that the MoH has now distinguished between domestic cases, overseas travel cases and cases with unknown travel history.

                    Click image for larger version

Name:	Covid-1903042020Chart.jpg
Views:	42
Size:	34.2 KB
ID:	845577
                    Click image for larger version

Name:	Covid-1903042020ChartUnSpec.jpg
Views:	42
Size:	31.7 KB
ID:	845578

                    The above chart shows cases who's travel has not been classified. The 20-29 peak suggests there are a fair number of overseas cases in this set. The following chart suggests that a good number of overseas cases have also been missed.

                    Click image for larger version

Name:	Covid-1903042020ChartUnKnown.jpg
Views:	42
Size:	35.1 KB
ID:	845579

                    Click image for larger version

Name:	Covid-1903042020ChartNo.jpg
Views:	42
Size:	33.9 KB
ID:	845580

                    Click image for larger version

Name:	Covid-1903042020ChartOverseas.jpg
Views:	42
Size:	34.2 KB
ID:	845581

                    The final two charts are very strongly indicative of the presence of local transmission as the domestic cases are peaking in the 40-50 age group with a fairly normal distribution while the overseas cases are very strongly 20-29 biased. I would expect this to get more pronounced as the NZ citizens still overseas are heavily represented by the 20-29 age group.
                    "Bother!" said Pooh.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Here are the charts and summary for New Zealand for 4 April 2020. There has been no update for the 5th so far.

                      Summary
                      Number of confirmed cases in New Zealand 824 52
                      Number of probable cases 126 30
                      Number of confirmed and probable cases 950 82
                      Number of cases in hospital 10
                      Number of recovered cases 127 24
                      Number of deaths 1
                      Of these 420 are from overseas and 293 are domestic so cases continue to be dominated by Overseas travel and the overseas travelers continue to be dominated by those in the 20-29 age group. Having said that we are now at the stage where half our cases are from overseas so it looks like we are moving towards a new phase of our COVID-19 event. We are also seeing our numbers returning from overseas dropping due to the increasing difficulty of finding an aeroplane still flying.

                      The Ministry of Health has also changed the criteria for testing from one which required contact with or association with overseas travel to one where you simply require some of the symptoms, mainly a dry cough (notably you don't need to have an elevated temperature). It is expected that this will increase the number of local cases dramatically, but the country has also more than tripled the testing capacity in the past two weeks so there is now the capacity to test more local cases.

                      At this point our number of confirmed cases has been growing linearly rather than exponentially, which at least suggests the physical distancing requirements are having an impact, although the restricted testing criteria will have affected things. I expect the numbers from early next week will give a much clearer picture as samples collected in the past few days return results.


                      Click image for larger version  Name:	image_30570.jpg Views:	5 Size:	34.9 KB ID:	845592

                      Cases with no assigned travel history seem to have been combined with cases with unknown travel in this data set.

                      Click image for larger version  Name:	image_30571.jpg Views:	5 Size:	38.2 KB ID:	845593


                      Click image for larger version  Name:	Covid-1904042020ChartNo.jpg Views:	2 Size:	36.7 KB ID:	845594

                      Click image for larger version  Name:	Covid-1904042020ChartOverseas.jpg Views:	2 Size:	37.2 KB ID:	845595
                      "Bother!" said Pooh.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Now that we have been in an active phase of the COVID-19 event in New Zealand for over a week and we have some more details on cases I thought a time series graph of cases might be interesting. This one looks at travel status over time together with overall numbers.

                        The interesting thing is that we are still not seeing exponential growth in cases. It is also interesting that the number of overseas cases is gradually flattening as the domestic cases move up.
                        The unassigned line is fairly flat as existing cases are tracked down and new ones are added. This really represents the progress of contact tracing.

                        Click image for larger version

Name:	Covid-1905042020Progres.jpg
Views:	28
Size:	55.8 KB
ID:	845609

                        Our cases have been climbing in a pretty linear fashion since the numbers started to climb rapidly. This coincided with a mass return of New Zealanders from overseas.

                        I have also added the age group charts for today below. Not much to say, they are continuing the trends already noted, particularly the dominance of the 20-29 age group in overseas cases. In terms of the domestic cases one might almost think it is the 40-49 age group who are having the most trouble complying with the isolation rules.

                        Click image for larger version

Name:	Covid-1905042020Chart.jpg
Views:	28
Size:	39.7 KB
ID:	845610

                        Click image for larger version

Name:	Covid-1905042020ChartUnSpec.jpg
Views:	28
Size:	41.4 KB
ID:	845611

                        Click image for larger version

Name:	Covid-1905042020ChartNo.jpg
Views:	28
Size:	41.6 KB
ID:	845612

                        Click image for larger version

Name:	Covid-1905042020ChartOverseas.jpg
Views:	28
Size:	40.4 KB
ID:	845613
                        "Bother!" said Pooh.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Thank You for making the effort, watching the numbers change as more data becomes available is worthwhile.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Today's update from the Ministry, charted by age group and travel history.


                            Summary
                            Number of confirmed cases in New Zealand 911 39
                            Number of probable cases 195 28
                            Number of confirmed and probable cases 1106 67
                            Number of cases in hospital 13
                            Number of recovered cases 176 20
                            Number of deaths 1

                            Click image for larger version

Name:	Covid-1906042020Progres.jpg
Views:	11
Size:	56.6 KB
ID:	845973

                            Our case count continues on an essentially linear progression indicating continued control of spread. We are seeing an increasing number of clusters (12 today) and they are growing in size, which means community spread is happening, but still not at a great rate. Age related breakdowns below show the same trends as in previous days.

                            Click image for larger version

Name:	Covid-1906042020Chart.jpg
Views:	11
Size:	35.5 KB
ID:	845974

                            Click image for larger version

Name:	Covid-1906042020ChartUnSpec.jpg
Views:	11
Size:	37.6 KB
ID:	845975

                            Click image for larger version

Name:	Covid-1906042020ChartNo.jpg
Views:	11
Size:	37.2 KB
ID:	845976

                            Click image for larger version

Name:	Covid-1906042020ChartOverseas.jpg
Views:	11
Size:	40.1 KB
ID:	845977
                            "Bother!" said Pooh.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              More of the same today. Numbers continue in a mostly linear fashion, with a slight reduction in growth. More significantly the growth is mostly from new cases in existing clusters, which means wide spread community transmission is not showing up at the moment.

                              The summary figures are:

                              Summary
                              Number of confirmed cases in New Zealand 943 32
                              Number of probable cases 217 22
                              Number of confirmed and probable cases 1160 54
                              Number of cases in hospital 12
                              Number of recovered cases 241 65
                              Number of deaths 1

                              The progression of cases shows a continued transition from imported cases to domestic cases, although these are mostly associated with existing clusters.


                              Click image for larger version

Name:	Covid-1907042020Progres.jpg
Views:	4
Size:	59.6 KB
ID:	846318

                              Click image for larger version

Name:	Covid-1907042020Chart.jpg
Views:	4
Size:	40.3 KB
ID:	846319

                              Click image for larger version

Name:	Covid-1907042020ChartUnSpec.jpg
Views:	4
Size:	37.2 KB
ID:	846320

                              Click image for larger version

Name:	Covid-1907042020ChartNo.jpg
Views:	4
Size:	37.6 KB
ID:	846321

                              Click image for larger version

Name:	Covid-1907042020ChartOverseas.jpg
Views:	4
Size:	42.1 KB
ID:	846322
                              "Bother!" said Pooh.

                              Comment

                              Working...
                              X