Discussion thread IV - COVID-19 (new coronavirus)

[Treyfish]

"For example in those cluster investigations they have determined that only one in five people actually spread the infection further; 80% of people don't spread the infection further in these cluster investigations, which means there's a particular sub-group of individuals who, potentially for different reasons - infection can spread more easily." Dr. Mike Ryan, WHO from the Friday April 10, 2020 press briefing call.

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/media-resources/press-briefings

This was based off of the cluster tracing they are doing in Japan. So my question is did anyone pick up on this? Has anyone seen any data out of Japan, or is that something that wouldn't be put out there quite yet? I would be curious to see if they have been able to pinpoint further maybe why some spread and some don't. I hope this helps in understanding spread further and will help with future contact tracing, etc. I know people are thinking that this is more present out in the community but I fear we may never know for sure because of the antibody challenges showing in up in the early studies.

Curious what anyone in the groups thoughts are, this seemed to stick with me over the weekend so I thought I would toss it out there.

i got some china reports
Coronavirus Can Live in Patients for Five Weeks After Contagion

March 12th, 2020, 06:54 AM
Coronavirus Can Live in Patients for Five Weeks After Contagion

Claire Che, Bloomberg News
(Bloomberg) --

Patients with the new coronavirus keep the pathogen in their respiratory tract for as long as 37 days, a new study found, suggesting they could remain infectious for many weeks. https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/...fter-contagion

https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/...hort-for-women

Rare coronavirus patient’s mild symptoms but long illness may point to ‘chronic’ mutation: researchers

March 31st, 2020, 08:16 PM
Rare coronavirus patient’s mild symptoms but long illness may point to ‘chronic’ mutation: researchers

• Potential ‘chronic patients’ may have prolonged ability to infect their surroundings, Chinese researchers warn
• ‘The virus and the host may even form a symbiotic relationship,’ they sayhttps://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/...on-researchers

[kiwibird]

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20200415/k10012387611000.html?utm_int=news-new_contents_list-items_100

This is the only Japanese article I can find about clusters - all in Sendai. I will keep looking.

[bertrand789]

je me sens belle : https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_c...ature=emb_logo Un superbe document, ? d?guster totalement, qui a un manque:


Il n'est pas abord?: la m?decine traditionnelle chinoise, son organisation, sa production, son encadrement, et surtout, la vision qu'a l'O.MS sur cela et la communication de l'O.M.S sur ce sujet ?

"Il n'existe pas de consensus sur la d?finition de ce qui constitue une m?decine, ni une m?decine traditionnelle, ni une m?decine traditionnelle chinoise. Selon l'OMS :

? La m?decine traditionnelle est la somme totale des connaissances, savoirs-faire et pratiques, bas?e sur les th?ories, croyances et exp?riences appartenant ? diff?rentes cultures, qu'elles soient explicables ou pas, utilis?es aussi bien pour le maintien de la sant? que pour la pr?vention, le diagnostic, l'am?lioration ou le traitement des maladies physiques et mentales ?⁵."

https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/M%C3%A...nelle_chinoise


"Le Comit? permanent du Congr?s national du peuple chinois a adopt? la premi?re loi du pays sur la MTC en 2016, qui devrait entrer en vigueur le 1er juillet 2017. La nouvelle loi a normalis? les certifications de la MTC en exigeant des praticiens de la MTC (i) qu'ils r?ussissent les examens administr?s par les autorit?s provinciales de la MTC et ( ii) obtenir des recommandations de deux praticiens certifi?s. Les produits et services TCM ne peuvent ?tre annonc?s qu'avec l'approbation de l'autorit? TCM locale."

"?tats-Unis [ modifier ]

En juillet 2012, seuls six ?tats n'avaient pas de l?gislation existante pour r?glementer la pratique professionnelle de la MTC. Ces six ?tats sont l' Alabama , le Kansas , le Dakota du Nord , le Dakota du Sud , l' Oklahoma et le Wyoming . En 1976, la Californie a cr?? un conseil d'acupuncture et est devenu le premier acupuncteur professionnel agr?? par l'?tat"


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tradit...inese_medicine

[kiwibird]

Google translated your post -
I feel beautiful: https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_c...ature=emb_logo A superb document, to taste completely, which has a lack:


It is not addressed: traditional Chinese medicine, its organization, its production, its supervision, and above all, the vision that the WHO has on this and the communication of the WHO on this subject?

"There is no consensus on the definition of what constitutes medicine, traditional medicine or traditional Chinese medicine. According to the WHO:
"Traditional medicine is the sum total of knowledge, skills and practices, based on the theories, beliefs and experiences belonging to different cultures, whether explicable or not, used as well for the maintenance of health as for prevention, diagnosis, improvement or treatment of physical and mental illness "5."

https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/M%C3%A...nelle_chinoise

"The Standing Committee of the National People's Congress of China adopted the country's first TCM law in 2016, which is expected to come into force on July 1, 2017. The new law standardized TCM certifications by requiring TCM practitioners (i) they pass exams administered by the provincial TCM authorities and (ii) obtain recommendations from two certified practitioners TCM products and services can only be advertised with the approval of the local TCM authority . "

"United States [edit]

As of July 2012, only six states had no existing legislation to regulate the professional practice of TCM. These six states are Alabama, Kansas, North Dakota, South Dakota, Oklahoma and Wyoming. In 1976 California established an acupuncture board and became the first state-licensed professional acupuncturist "

[kiwibird]

"For example in those cluster investigations they have determined that only one in five people actually spread the infection further; 80% of people don't spread the infection further in these cluster investigations, which means there's a particular sub-group of individuals who, potentially for different reasons - infection can spread more easily." Dr. Mike Ryan, WHO from the Friday April 10, 2020 press briefing call.

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/media-resources/press-briefings

This was based off of the cluster tracing they are doing in Japan. So my question is did anyone pick up on this? Has anyone seen any data out of Japan, or is that something that wouldn't be put out there quite yet? I would be curious to see if they have been able to pinpoint further maybe why some spread and some don't. I hope this helps in understanding spread further and will help with future contact tracing, etc. I know people are thinking that this is more present out in the community but I fear we may never know for sure because of the antibody challenges showing in up in the early studies.

Curious what anyone in the groups thoughts are, this seemed to stick with me over the weekend so I thought I would toss it out there.

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3916558

TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Taiwan's Central Epidemic Command Center (CECC) on Wednesday (April 15) announced two new cases of Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19), bringing the total to 395.

During his daily press conference on Wednesday afternoon, Health Minister and CECC head Chen Shih-chung (陳時中) announced there were two new coronavirus cases detected in the country that day. Both of the new cases were imported from the U.S., one of whom was aboard the doomed China Airlines flight from New York to Taiwan which has already reported a number of infections.

Other than the cluster cases in Sendai that I commented on in Treyfish's post this flight seems to have had someone very efficient at spreading.

Case No. 394, a woman in her 60s, was aboard the ill-fated China Airlines (CAL) flight CI011, which arrived in Taiwan from New York on March 30. The CECC carried out testing on all passengers and crew from the jet from April 11 to 15, and case No. 394 is the latest to be diagnosed, bringing the total to 12.

Might be worth tracking the Index case.

[kiwibird]

It was from New York JFK

[kiwibird]

https://focustaiwan.tw/society/202004010011

Seems likely that it was case 325 and 329 who travelled with another (no word on whether they later became ill) and both were ladies who lost their sense of smell one on March 23rd and the second also lost her sense of smell and taste on the 24th, and reported to the Health screeners at the airport on entry. Perhaps the smell and taste thing are associated with high spread. Perhaps also with a lesser severity of disease??? I only add this because the Health Secretary in the UK lost his sense of smell and recovered quickly whereas I haven't seen that the Prime Minister had this symptom and took longer to recover. Anecdotal... Just checked - Prime Minister appears to have presented with fever - no word on loss of smell or taste.

[kiwibird]

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/04/200413132809.htm

"Based on our study, if you have smell and taste loss, you are more than 10 times more likely to have COVID-19 infection than other causes of infection. The most common first sign of a COVID-19 infection remains fever, but fatigue and loss of smell and taste follow as other very common initial symptoms," said Carol Yan, MD, an otolaryngologist and head and neck surgeon at UC San Diego Health. "We know COVID-19 is an extremely contagious virus. This study supports the need to be aware of smell and taste loss as early signs of COVID-19."

Yan and colleagues surveyed 1,480 patients with flu-like symptoms and concerns regarding potential COVID-19 infection who underwent testing at UC San Diego Health from March 3 through March 29, 2020. Within that total, 102 patients tested positive for the virus and 1,378 tested negative. The study included responses from 59 COVID-19-positive patients and 203 COVID-19-negative patients.

Yan said the study demonstrated the high prevalence and unique presentation of certain sensory impairments in patients positive with COVID-19. Of those who reported loss of smell and taste, the loss was typically profound, not mild. But encouragingly, the rate of recovery of smell and taste was high and occurred usually within two to four weeks of infection.

"Our study not only showed that the high incidence of smell and taste is specific to COVID-19 infection, but we fortunately also found that for the majority of people sensory recovery was generally rapid," said Yan. "Among the Covid-19 patients with smell loss, more than 70 percent had reported improvement of smell at the time of survey and of those who hadn't reported improvement, many had only been diagnosed recently."

Sensory return typically matched the timing of disease recovery. Interestingly, the researchers found that persons who reported experiencing a sore throat more often tested negative for COVID-19.

In an effort to decrease risk of virus transmission, UC San Diego Health now includes loss of smell and taste as a screening requirement for visitors and staff, as well as a marker for testing patients who may be positive for the virus.

Other known symptoms of COVID-19 include fever, fatigue, cough and difficulty breathing. Respondents in Yan's study were most often persons with milder forms of COVID-19 infection who did not require hospitalization or intubation. The findings, she said, underline the importance of identifying early or subtle symptoms of COVID-19 infection in people who may be at risk of transmitting the disease as they recuperate within the community.

[JJackson]

Re the infectious period.
Yesterdays TWiV 601 was an interview with a German Corona virus researcher on their experience and research. The gist was that the virus remained in the deep lung for a long time but that neither URT or fecal samples were infectious apart from early in the disease. They could get RNA in PCR tests but could not infect vero cells although around symptom onset, and a few days after, viral titers were very high and grew well.

https://www.microbe.tv/twiv/

[bertrand789]

S'il faut ?tre tr?s dur avec les fondamentalistes, vu ce que l'histoire peut nous apprendre ( je peut entrer dans les d?tails) , si l'on accepte de lire, il faut savoir reconna?tre que les vrais et ou bons, doivent ?tre prot?g?s et ?tre encourag?s.
L'Am?rique, c'est, d'abord, pour moi, le pays qui a su faire d'une autiste, une professeur, qui a astreint le changement de regard de m?me des religieux. Je pense ? Temple Grandin, une des femmes que j'aimerai avoir l'honneur de rencontrer, se doit d'?tre, ? ce stade, du dossier, exemplaire ...

https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Temple_Grandin

https://www.templegrandin.com/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legal_...tual_slaughter

[Emily]

Temple Grandin's story is very inspiring. Here's a TED talk by her: https://www.ted.com/talks/temple_gra...ds?language=en
Temple Grandin
TED2010
The world needs all kinds of minds
5,640,371 views 19:43 Subtitles in 37 languages

[Emily]

Compelling interview - her experience sounds far worse that what is going on in my community. (Of course no war going on now and Mrs. Boone's community might not have had a nearby hospital.) Her family was the only one unaffected in her town of 200, so they ended up nursing everyone. Her mother credited having a glass of water with baking soda in it every morning prior to breakfast. She felt that acidity made the throat susceptible to the flu virus. Maybe they were just very lucky genetically.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7k20VFZeLKY

1918 influenza pandemic survivor interview: Mrs. Edna Boone, interviewed 2008 by Alabama Department of Public Health

[sharon sanders]

FluTrackers.com
@FluTrackers
?
13h
FluTrackers 1st post on this pandemic in wayback machine archive: 11:35 pm December 30, 2019

First notice in the Western world.

https://web.archive.org/web/20200305202019/https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/china-2019-ncov/821830-china-original-2019-ncov-news-thread-weeks-1-4-december-30-2019-january-25-2020…

#coronavirus #grassroots
3
12
27

FluTrackers.com
@FluTrackers
?
18h
A note: All of the case counts from all of the countries are an approximation. Some are deliberately skewed. Most are a loose gathering of available local reporting. These numbers are minimum counts. The higher they climb the more generalized they are.
6
12


FluTrackers.com
@FluTrackers
?
2m
Again, our condolences to everyone who has lost a near one.

Also, to everyone who has lost their job - unreal.

While getting benefits/checks, prepare for August if your job does not come back. Prep to do something else just-in-case.

There won't be any instant econ recovery.

[sharon sanders]

FluTrackers.com
@FluTrackers
?
13s
I know it is hard but the reality is that the economy is a slow moving ship. It can not turn on a dime. Even if widespread testing was available today and there is no 2nd wave in the fall, it will take months and months to ramp things back up.

Best to get your mind around this.


-------------------------------------

There is some push back about the tweet in the post above.

We were the first in the Western world to post about this pandemic. And we have offered guidance ever since. First it was a series of tweets about prepping with 2 weeks of supplies. Then it was about homemade masks. Now it is about the economy. While we carry an extensive library of COVID-19 therapies, drugs, etc., sadly, we can't do anything about the cases and deaths now. We will continue to publish all pertinent data regarding COVID-19 research, testing, and any other helpful information.

The next phase to prepare for is the economic consequence of a global shut down for these last few weeks.

Despite many what many officials and experts say - there will be no instant turn around of the economy. The best case scenario is that economy begins to pick up again in the fall. But this assumes no second wave of illness and effective testing widely available today.

I personally think all small businesses need to think about all delivery everything. Like a dry cleaner who picks up and delivers. A restaurant where all the food is fully cooked. And publicize how your employees are wearing masks and gloves.

I have other ideas that I need to get together. Maybe JJackson can start a thread.

[JJackson]

Sharon I had not seen this post because I was busy writing about what comes next, which I have just posted in this thread. https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/...rsonal-opinion
Things are moving so fast it is impossible to keep up.
I now know 3 people who have died, all of them were is care homes in the UK.

[sharon sanders]

FluTrackers.com
@FluTrackers
?
14s
We were 1st in the Western world to make a notice of the outbreak in China. Then we published about that extensively.

Then we asked everyone to prep for 2 weeks.

Then we asked everyone to make a home made mask.

Now we are saying do an econ prep.

https://web.archive.org/web/20200226094911/https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/china-2019-ncov/821830-china-original-2019-ncov-news-thread-weeks-1-4-december-30-2019-january-25-2020

[gsgs]

subjects from the daily Drosten podcasts translated to English. I extracted texts from the .pdfs , ~1MB can someone translate ? too big for google

31) Re-infection remains unlikely
Topics: Transmission while jogging, procedure in the Heinsberg study, representativity of regional studies, accuracy of antibody tests, question of whether virus can be reactivated, problems with samples and laboratory situations Download (170 KB)
Topics: Simple case tracking; possible app that uses bluetooth data; Anonymization of data, data protection; Corona data donation app from the RKI; EU-wide cooperation. Download (157 KB)
Topics: Figures from Johns Hopkins University and the RKI, test capacities at the limit, wrong results in antibody tests possible, virus screening in waste water. Download (146 KB)
Topics: Second ad hoc statement by the Leopoldina, study on masks, study on aerosol, detectability on surfaces, loss of sense of smell and taste as a symptom. Download (146 KB)
Topics: New study from Great Britain on app that evaluates movement data; new study from China on chloroquine; preventive measures against infection; Weekly review. Download (113 KB)
Topics: Live / vector vaccines, dead vaccines, vaccine trials and dangers, gene-based vaccines, vaccination of risk groups, duration of development of the vaccine. Download (111 KB)
Topics: air distribution channels, international distribution channels, mutation of the virus, security through cellular data, masks. Download (133 KB)
Topics: Situation in Germany compared to Italy / Spain / USA, discussion about easing of the measures, distinction between politics and science Download (131 KB)
Topics: How to accelerate research, European networking, work in laboratories, symptoms and course of the disease. Download (110 KB)
Topics: PCR and antibody tests, drugs: Remdesivir, Kaletra, Interferon, research on Camostat Download (115 KB)
Topics: How does the PCR test work? How should the throat be tested? Antibody tests, ELISA tests, rapid tests. Download (118 KB)
Topics: look at the strategy of other countries, case numbers Germany and Italy, assessment of targeted infection of young people, study: when are patients infectious? Download (103 KB)
Topics: Sensibility of respiratory masks, role of children, abbreviations through the media. Download (105 KB)
Topics: Addendum to asthma patients, how resilient are the numbers, what changes when testing, is still sequenced, the work in the laboratory, can you still go out? Download (97 KB)
Topics: Angela Merkel's speech, assessment of the study from Marseille on the malaria drug chloroquine, what are protective measures for supermarket staff ?, situation in the laboratories: how many tests are possible? Who should be tested? Download (117 KB)
Topics: Criticism from the Internet, new forecasts for the virus from London, vaccine approvals Download (123 KB)
Topics: New studies on immunity and antibodies, active and passive vaccination, what good rapid tests from the pharmacy are good for, we should all wear respiratory masks Download (135 KB)
Topics: Ibuprofen, contagion through surface contact, practice of the new rules, unnecessary accusations, social distancing Download (104 KB)
Topics: balancing act of the virologist between science and politics, how should you behave (hygiene, going away, shopping), who is particularly at risk and why? Download (92 KB)
Topics: school closings, protecting risk groups, USA, tests - especially in small clinics, further measures Download (98 KB)
A natural disaster that happens in slow motion. Virologist Drosten emphasizes: act now to avoid a situation like in Italy! So cancel events, protect risk groups. Download (91 KB)
Topics: We still have - among other things through a well-positioned health system - a head start that should not be wasted. In addition, what does pneumococcal vaccination bring? Download (95 KB)
Topics: Comparison Italy-Korea. What do you have to do now? Full infection expected by autumn. Peak June to August. Risk groups. Check events Download (100 KB)
Topics: mutations, different viruses, how the virus develops, dangerous half-knowledge, assessment of the situation. Download (113 KB)
Topics: situation in Italy, tests, course and mortality (compared to the flu), what do closures bring, why society is in demand, situation in Germany Download (117 KB)
Topics: Protection of medical personnel, tests for at home, when are infected people contagious, German laboratories well prepared, danger for pregnant women, children, origin of the virus Download (478 KB)
Topics: Situation for general practitioners, contagion, protection, behaviors, quarantine, chains of infection, rapid test, protection for medical personnel, vaccine, antibodies. Download (110 KB)
Topics: (herd) immunity, vaccine, medication, how will the virus spread, what role will time play, what will virologists expect in the next winter. Download (474 KB)
Topics: As p

[sharon sanders]

Thanks gsgs. Do you have a link for the pdf?

[JJackson]

TWiV interview with Christian Drosten (in English)

https://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-601/

[Gert van der Hoek]

Report: Covid-19 patients recovering quickly after getting experimental drug remdesivir


By Maggie Fox, CNN



Updated 0821 GMT (1621 HKT) April 17, 2020


(CNN)Covid-19 patients who are getting an experimental drug called remdesivir have been recovering quickly, with most going home in days, STAT News reported Thursday after it obtained a video of a conversation about the trial.

The patients taking part in a clinical trial of the drug have all had severe respiratory symptoms and fever, but were able to leave the hospital after less than a week of treatment, STAT quoted the doctor leading the trial as saying.

"The best news is that most of our patients have already been discharged, which is great. We've only had two patients perish," Dr. Kathleen Mullane, an infectious disease specialist at the University of Chicago who is leading the clinical trial, said in the video.

[sharon sanders]

FluTrackers.com
@FluTrackers
?
11s
This is "econ prep" weekend #1

If you lost your job-file for benefits.

For all: Make a list of your talents & skills.
List other kinds of jobs you can do if yours is cut.
List re-fresher courses, license renewals, etc. - get these done.
Spend $ on basics only. Conserve $.

[Emily]

subjects from the daily Drosten podcasts translated to English. I extracted texts from the .pdfs , ~1MB can someone translate ? too big for google

31) Re-infection remains unlikely
Topics: Transmission while jogging, procedure in the Heinsberg study, representativity of regional studies, accuracy of antibody tests, question of whether virus can be reactivated, problems with samples and laboratory situations Download (170 KB)
[snip]

I'm very interested in the jogging/cycling issue. Couldn't find a transcript of the podscast to translate, but I found an article that covers this.

https://www.wired.com/story/are-running-or-cycling-actually-risks-for-spreading-covid-19/

[Treyfish]

Vitamin D and the Cytokine Storm


Last updated: 16 April 2020 22:00EST by Frank Cusimano

Summary

As I have posted about VitD before (make sure to see my previous post first), you will know that VitD is important for the immune response. Recently new mediators in the immune response to the coronavirus were identified. One of the molecules, is the same molecule that led to exacerbation of the H1N1 outbreak. VitD and the VitD receptor are important because they have been shown to limit the release of these mediators in the immune response.

Science

Previously I mentioned the cytokine storm. After someone becomes infected, the body starts to fight off the virus through the innate immune response utilizing cytokines and nonspecific immune cells. Overtime time your immune system transitions from the innate response to the adaptive immune response utilizing a slower antibody-based approach. In some individuals, during the innate immune response, an overzealous inflammatory response can occur leading to high levels of different cytokines and immune mediators. This, cytokine storm, can lead to the recruitment of additional cells causing widespread tissue damage. In this transition, between the innate and immune system, one cytokine is particularly responsible.

A recent paper came out showing that in patients with COVID-19, who progressed to severe disease, three cytokines, IP-10, MCP-3, and IL-1ra, were significantly higher .
http://frankcusimano.com/vitamin-d-c...cytokine-storm

[Treyfish]

WHO Doubts That Antibodies Can Protect Against COVID-19

Published 17 April 2020 (2 hours 10 minutes ago)

• Countries like the United Kingdom first relied on the theory until backtracking because of the raising death toll.

The World Health Organization is not sure whether the presence of antibodies in blood gives full protection against reinfection with the new coronavirus, Mike Ryan, the WHO’s top emergencies expert, told a briefing on Friday.
Ryan also said that even if antibodies were effective there was little sign that large numbers of people had developed them and were beginning to offer so-called “herd immunity” to the broader population.
https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/...0417-0014.html