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Discussion thread IV - COVID-19 (new coronavirus)

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  • Originally posted by Gert van der Hoek View Post
    From Germany: Preliminary results and conclusions of the COVID-19 case cluster study (Gangelt municipality)

    A case study of the community of Gangelt,one of the strongest COVID19 affected places in Germany.

    Some highlights:

    - approx. 14% of the population had antibodies

    - mortality rate 0.06%
    , much lower than we were thinking?
    That does sound low but it is just one community. Germany has apparently had a low mortality rate in general, and maybe this community doesn't have a lot of older or otherwise high risk residents. (No nursing homes?) Something I read about Germany is that they don't promote flu vaccination of the older/vulnerable population like a lot of other countries do. I posted a military study that showed the flu vaccination was associated with viral interference with coronavirus infections. It didn't say that morbidity was increased as Tetano pointed out, but the study was of a young, healthy military population. They did not study viral interferene in the population most susceptible to the sars-cov-2 virus.
    Last edited by Emily; April 11, 2020, 03:30 AM.
    _____________________________________________

    Ask Congress to Investigate COVID Origins and Government Response to Pandemic H.R. 834

    i love myself. the quietest. simplest. most powerful. revolution ever. ---- nayyirah waheed
    Governments don't have or own souls.

    (My posts are not intended as advice or professional assessments of any kind.)
    Never forget Excalibur.

    Comment


    • A representatieve sample of aprox 500 people, from a population of aprox 12,000

      So the question seems to be, is this village representative for Germany or the World?
      ?Addressing chronic disease is an issue of human rights ? that must be our call to arms"
      Richard Horton, Editor-in-Chief The Lancet

      ~~~~ Twitter:@GertvanderHoek ~~~ GertvanderHoek@gmail.com ~~~

      Comment


      • Not sure if this is the same study???

        https://www.tagesschau.de/regional/n...sberg-101.html
        "liegt die Todesrate f?r Gangelt nur bei 0,37 Prozent."

        Translation:

        the death rate for Gangelt is only 0.37 percent.
        _____________________________________________

        Ask Congress to Investigate COVID Origins and Government Response to Pandemic H.R. 834

        i love myself. the quietest. simplest. most powerful. revolution ever. ---- nayyirah waheed
        Governments don't have or own souls.

        (My posts are not intended as advice or professional assessments of any kind.)
        Never forget Excalibur.

        Comment



        • Japan's sudden spike in coronavirus cases after Tokyo Olympics postponement raises eyebrows

          Japan reported more than 500 new positive cases for the first time Thursday.


          9 April 2020

          ............................

          Before the Games were pushed back, Japan appeared to have its outbreak largely under control. Despite the global pandemic, organizers maintained they were forging ahead with preparations for the 2020 Summer Olympics to kick off in Tokyo on July 24, and they encouraged athletes to do the same.

          Then on March 24, amid mounting calls to delay or cancel the Olympics, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and the International Olympic Committee announced that the upcoming Games would be held a year later due to the worldwide health crisis.

          On that day, Japan had reported just 1,140 diagnosed cases of COVID-19, the disease caused by the new respiratory virus, according to data compiled at the time by Johns Hopkins University. As of Thursday night, that tally was up to around 5,500, not including the 712 cases linked to the Diamond Princess cruise ship that docked in Tokyo earlier this year, according to figures published by Japan's national broadcaster NHK. By prefecture, Tokyo tops the list of infections with over 1,500.

          Over 100 people in Japan have died from the disease so far, including 11 from the cruise ship, according to NHK. There has been a threefold increase in deaths since the Tokyo Games were postponed.

          The sharp rise in cases and deaths has prompted speculations that Japan had previously understated the scope of its coronavirus outbreak.
          ?Addressing chronic disease is an issue of human rights ? that must be our call to arms"
          Richard Horton, Editor-in-Chief The Lancet

          ~~~~ Twitter:@GertvanderHoek ~~~ GertvanderHoek@gmail.com ~~~

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Gert van der Hoek View Post
            What if we are wrong about Covid-19?

            What if Covid-19 doesn't cause a "normal" pneumonia? But something else? Italian top doctor Gattinoni writes: Covid-19 Does Not Lead to a "Typical" Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome

            Edit: see also this interview with NY doctor: Do COVID-19 Vent Protocols Need a Second Look?

            What if Covid-19 chops off the iron of hemoglobin, so your red blood cells can't carry oxygen anymore: COVID-19: Attacks the 1-BetaChain of Hemoglobin and Captures the Porphyrin to Inhibit Human Heme Metabolism

            If the previous hypothesis is true, ventilation is futile, it can buy some time perhaps (see article above by Gattinoni c.s.).

            Now what? Perhaps this: Effectiveness of convalescent plasma therapy in severe COVID-19 patients
            The discussion is not over yet:


            Covid-19: Debunking the Hemoglobin Story


            I hope it has been sufficient to make clear that the blog post, and even the scientific article that likely inspired it, should not be viewed as a source of any meaningful insight into SARS-CoV-2, how it affects patients, or how the virus might be treated.

            https://medium.com/@amdahl/covid-19-...y-ce27773d1096
            ?Addressing chronic disease is an issue of human rights ? that must be our call to arms"
            Richard Horton, Editor-in-Chief The Lancet

            ~~~~ Twitter:@GertvanderHoek ~~~ GertvanderHoek@gmail.com ~~~

            Comment


            • "Non, cette pand?mie n'est pas une guerre. Les nations ne s'opposent pas ? d'autres nations, les soldats ? d'autres soldats. C'est un test de notre humanit?"
              https://www.bfmtv.com/international/...n-1892507.html

              Comment


              • Interesting - especially if it will work

                AI app can detect coronavirus from sound of cough



                app records sound of cough and predicts whether one has coronavirus

                https://neurosciencenews.com/ai-coug...navirus-16145/

                Comment


                • Avis du Conseil scientifique COVID-19 2 avril 2020 Etat des lieux du confinement et crit?res de sortie
                  http://www.datapressepremium.com/rmd...2AVRIL2020.pdf

                  un lieu pour lister ce type d'avis et proposer une analyse compar?e ?

                  Comment


                  • Autre question, sachant que, par exemple, il y en a beaucoup d'arm?es avec du personnel sous anti-palud?ens ? l'ann?e, et vu ceci :

                    Signe encourageant, selon Cheikh Sokhna, la pr?valence du coronavirus semble moins importante dans les zones o? l’utilisation d’antipalud?ens, comme la chloroquine ou la m?floquine, est fr?quente. ? Cela se voit de mani?re tr?s grossi?re. Mais il faudra int?grer d’autres facteurs avant de tirer des conclusions d?finitives ?, ajoute, ? la fois enthousiaste et prudent, le chercheur s?n?galais, en poste d’ordinaire ? Marseille mais actuellement en mission de longue dur?e ? Dakar.
                    http://www.24jours.com/didier-raoult...a-chloroquine/

                    https://www.editions.ird.fr/auteur/696/Cheikh%20Sokhna

                    Un lien vers le publi?, accessible, des grandes muettes qui sont toutes concern?es ...

                    Enfin, un souhait pour Tetano : des liens pour expliquer ceci :
                    https://www.fda.gov/animal-veterinar...ovid-19-humans

                    Comment


                    • Stanford’s Dr. Ioannidis: Reliable Data Can End the COVID-19 Lockdown

                      NEW YORK – Dr. Ioannis P.A. Ioannidis is the C.F. Rehnborg Chair in Disease Prevention, a Professor of Medicine, Health Research and Policy, Biomedical Data Science, and Statistics. He is also the co-Director, Meta-Research Innovation Center at Stanford University. Dr. Ioannidis spoke with The National Herald and expressed his belief that humanity can successfully deal with the threat of COVID-19 through the proper collection and use of data, in the hope that the “blind” solution – a solution not based entirely on the data – of lockdowns need not be used again.

                      Dr. Ioannidis also emphasized that he never questioned the need to adhere to the social distancing measures. Rather, he clarified, he said that he does not consider the mortality of COVID-19 to be as high as initially estimated, or that shutting down the economy should be a long lasting policy.

                      Regarding Greece, he expressed confidence that the outbreak will pass in Greece without painful consequences, but stressed that he remains concerned about the impact of the lockdown measures if they are of long duration.


                      READ MORE

                      .
                      .. SNIPS :

                      How do you interpret the New York phenomenon?

                      Dr. Ioannidis: New York is a case similar to specific Italian cities. In New York…in some areas, hospitals are reminiscent war zones every day, areas containing many of our poor, neglected, and marginalized fellow human beings.

                      A second reason is that New York made the same mistake that as Italy: it is/was wrong to send masses of patients to hospitals. Patients should not be hospitalized if they do not truly need to be. We have seen in hospitals that are full that there is a problem with patients getting nosocomial infections – illnesses they pick up in the hospital – and doctors became infected with coronavirus. This causes secondary problems because infected doctors are withdrawn and available staff is reduced. I think that’s what happened in New York.


                      In fact, the likelihood of someone dying from coronavirus is much lower than we initially thought. Word was getting around that if you caught the virus, you were going to die. I estimate that the mortality rate will be slightly – but not spectacularly – higher than the seasonal flu.
                      NEW YORK – Dr. Ioannis P.A. Ioannidis is the C.F. Rehnborg Chair in Disease Prevention, a Professor of Medicine, Health Research and Policy, Biomedical Data …
                      ?Addressing chronic disease is an issue of human rights ? that must be our call to arms"
                      Richard Horton, Editor-in-Chief The Lancet

                      ~~~~ Twitter:@GertvanderHoek ~~~ GertvanderHoek@gmail.com ~~~

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by mcphilbrick View Post
                        Interesting - especially if it will work
                        AI app can detect coronavirus from sound of cough
                        app records sound of cough and predicts whether one has coronavirus
                        https://neurosciencenews.com/ai-coug...navirus-16145/
                        every worker/pupil must wear a smartphone with microphone and thermometer permanently connected to the healthoffice-computer !
                        ... and then comes the cough-police with the COVID-test
                        I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                        my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                        Comment


                        • in Gangelt/Heinsberg they did start social distancing and testing/isolation. So it could be entirely different in other communities.
                          Depends on the measures and how well people comply.
                          I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                          my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                          Comment



                          • FluTrackers.com
                            @FluTrackers
                            ?
                            18s
                            We are calling for a public International Court concerning COVID-19.

                            Especially a determination whether crimes against humanity have been committed.

                            For 2021. Not now.

                            No matter what public relations campaigns are undertaken, the truth will be revealed.

                            Comment


                            • JJackson
                              JJackson commented
                              Editing a comment
                              Sharon is someone thought to have committed a crime? I have not seen anything about crimes having been committed.

                            • sharon sanders
                              sharon sanders commented
                              Editing a comment
                              There is no accusation of a crime. It is a request for an International Court review.

                          • "For example in those cluster investigations they have determined that only one in five people actually spread the infection further; 80% of people don't spread the infection further in these cluster investigations, which means there's a particular sub-group of individuals who, potentially for different reasons - infection can spread more easily." Dr. Mike Ryan, WHO from the Friday April 10, 2020 press briefing call.

                            https://www.who.int/emergencies/dise...ress-briefings

                            This was based off of the cluster tracing they are doing in Japan. So my question is did anyone pick up on this? Has anyone seen any data out of Japan, or is that something that wouldn't be put out there quite yet? I would be curious to see if they have been able to pinpoint further maybe why some spread and some don't. I hope this helps in understanding spread further and will help with future contact tracing, etc. I know people are thinking that this is more present out in the community but I fear we may never know for sure because of the antibody challenges showing in up in the early studies.

                            Curious what anyone in the groups thoughts are, this seemed to stick with me over the weekend so I thought I would toss it out there.

                            Comment


                            • Spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the Icelandic Population



                              https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2006100
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