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Discussion thread III - Covid-19 (new coronavirus)
Back to S and L type variants, I've wondered if it would be a *good* thing to get exposed in this spring round. It seems like the virulent strain often wins out, so building even modest immunity may help when the second wave rolls in.
I wish there was more data on whether infection confers any protection.
A significant mutation could occur at any stage but it could just as easily reduce virulence but increase the rate of spread. I certainly would not want to catch it now before any of the clinical trials or serological data is available. Something may turn out to be effective and if other countries manage their containment as well as China, Singapore or Korea it may be killed off anyway. The absolute worst case scenario is to get infected in the middle of wave in your area as you are unlikely to get the level of care you would at any other time. I would stick with trying not to get infected in the first place.
Last edited by JJackson; March 11, 2020, 04:08 PM.
I'm with JJackson on this one, we all want to see better proactive control measures against this virus so we can burn it out and remove it from human society, if we can. An interesting read from the research section, shows that we are able to increase the SI (serial interval) from 3.5d right up to 7d, which breaks the chains of serial infection ... and it will die out. But the measures need to be strong, like Singapore, Hong Kong, South Korea.
This is a good sign in that it supports a hypothesis of a higher number of less severe cases (assuming the ILI is related to COVID19). If hospitalizations and P&I deaths also increased simultaneously - would be cause for even more concern.
Agree with recommendation to watch. Amazing that the ICU capacity could expand so rapidly. It shows how we can adapt better than we can imagine. Also good to know that the vulnerable older patients are still receiving the same consideration for care that they always have.
"...there’s an obvious contest that’s happening between different sectors of the colonial ruling class in this country. And they would, if they could, lump us into their beef, their struggle." ---- Omali Yeshitela, African People’s Socialist Party
(My posts are not intended as advice or professional assessments of any kind.) Never forget Excalibur.
On the recent study posted this morning about aerosol spread and length of live virus on surfaces....is there a common definition on “aerosol”? I recall some debate during SARS about droplet size and aerosol. This is an issue as Osterholm in his recent radio-show video seams to be talking about spread in the general air stream, not just via coughed droplets.
I watched a John Hopkins panel discussion and it, and other things I have read, lead me to this general conclusion. The dry cough is not causing the same type of large/medium droplets typical in colds and flu but a smaller 'nuclear' droplet that is not quite airborne but can stay aloft longer. The standard 2m separation for droplet transmission may not be quite good enough for COVID and it may remain in the air even after the host has left the room. I have not seen anything about how this changes the respiratory/fomite infection balance. Fomite survival seems to be anything from a couple of hours to a week or more depending on the surface and environmental condition. Better data will come but that is what I have seen to-date, others may have seen other findings, there is so much data it is impossible to read all of it and there is quite a lot of conflicting (or at least not very consistent) research.
John Hopkins link https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pnk8DuAly9Y
On the recent study posted this morning about aerosol spread and length of live virus on surfaces....is there a common definition on “aerosol”? I recall some debate during SARS about droplet size and aerosol. This is an issue as Osterholm in his recent radio-show video seams to be talking about spread in the general air stream, not just via coughed droplets.
Sorry for the lack of links - iPad.
J.
I have seen this quote several times over the past few days. As a thumb rule, if you can smell what they had for lunch, you are probably breathing in the virus. Not sure there is a useful study/link done on this - but it makes common sense.
"The only security we have is our ability to adapt."
This is going to be interesting, as long as you view it from afar. The quote below is from Chris Dall's piece in CIDRAP. It seems there is always someone who wants to swim against the tide. The irony is this came hours after the DG's announcement of a pandemic along with an impassioned speech that this should not be taken as a move to mitigation but as a call to be more aggressive on containment.
In an interview with the Sacramento Bee, Peter Beilenson, MD, head of Sacramento County's Department of Health Services, said the move is an acknowledgement that the novel coronavirus is in the community, and that trying to contain it through quarantines and contact tracing is no longer feasible.
"Once you get a certain number of cases, it's hard to contact-trace back the way you tried originally," Beilenson told the paper. "So we move to mitigation, which is basically trying to mitigate the risk to those who are most at risk: the elderly and those with chronic underlying conditions."
JJackson, if we could protect the high risk goups with biosecurity, health care systems would not get overwhelmed. So whether or not containment measures are used that should be a priority to do as best as we can. It should be at least part of the tide.
Yes, JJackson, thanks for bringing up the new Sacramento policy. This is where I live and when I read that announcement yesterday I was flabbergasted, and still am. This is very scary to me. I thought the quarantines were mitigation. What the heck? I work at the EPA and there are over 3,000 people in my building and we have 18 banks of elevators. I am afraid to touch anything. I just stay in my cubicle. I don't want to go to the cafe downstairs anymore either. And forget going out to a winery. I am in social-distancing mode big-time now. So is it time to start using my preps?
oh, and my husband is a professor at a local college that has not shut down. Another big concern for being in a county that no long quarantines!
Don't touch high-touch surfaces if you can avoid it. There were teams busily wiping high-touch surfaces down at the supermarket yesterday here in affected WA state. All you can do is reduce the odds.
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