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Discussion thread III - Covid-19 (new coronavirus)

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  • #31
    If we do not see ILI come up in surveillance at the point before an outbreak begins - I think it will be clear that we are going to be dealing with a very bad/high CFR. If, on the other hand, we see ILI pick up before we actually pick up on an outbreak - will feel more comfortable that the COVID-19 CFR is lower than current projections. We are on the downward curve of flu season so an uptick in ILI would be noticeable.

    Are any of you familiar with ILI surveillance in countries where outbreaks are being reported? South Korea? Italy? Japan? Recent ILI summaries may help give a preliminary picture of impact before and during outbreak events.

    Comment


    • #32
      The disadvantage of the new junk plans is clear. Delays in proper diagnosis can also increase spread for all US citizens when those with little to no health insurance can’t, refuse or delay access care. US numbers could exceed countries with national health based on access & cost.
      After traveling to China, a Miami man suspected he might have developed novel coronavirus, or COVID-19. He got tested at Jackson Memorial Hospital, and it ended up being the flu. Now he owes more than $3,000.

      Comment


      • yielddude
        yielddude commented
        Editing a comment
        I would most likely have not gone in if I was this guy, can't imagine there would not be many others in the same boat.

    • #33
      they'd better start consulting China what to do, how to stop it.
      But USA would not admit, that they are seeking for China's help
      I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
      my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

      Comment


      • #34
        ILI in Italy is at it's peak. Similar to last season. http://flunewseurope.org/PrimaryCareData
        Fill in Italy anch click on update.
        They also have Azerbaijan,Turkmenistan North of Iran. Even Kazakhstan is in Europe , ILI-wise
        I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
        my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

        Comment


        • #35
          Originally posted by curiosity View Post
          If we do not see ILI come up in surveillance at the point before an outbreak begins - I think it will be clear that we are going to be dealing with a very bad/high CFR. If, on the other hand, we see ILI pick up before we actually pick up on an outbreak - will feel more comfortable that the COVID-19 CFR is lower than current projections. We are on the downward curve of flu season so an uptick in ILI would be noticeable.

          Are any of you familiar with ILI surveillance in countries where outbreaks are being reported? South Korea? Italy? Japan? Recent ILI summaries may help give a preliminary picture of impact before and during outbreak events.
          from Shiloh
          Shiloh
          Editor, Senior Moderator
          • Join Date: Feb 2008
          • Posts: 55463
          • WHO: Covid-19 Situation Reports
          February 3rd, 2020, 03:43 PM
          These have been coming out daily and provide surveillance data, as well as other information . This is the latest as of February 3, 2020: https://www.who.int/docs/default-sou...rsn=f7347413_2
          Tags: None


          or..


          https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/publications/diseases-conditions/fluwatch/2019-2020/week-48-november-24-30-2019.html
          https://www.moh.gov.sg/news-highlights/details/two-more-confirmed-cases-of-novel-coronavirus-infection-in-singapore


          There will be more here; https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/...idemic-control but there are tens of thousands of posts and I cannot easily see any for Iran or Korea.

          I think you are looking for something more like this from the UK
          UK - Week 8 reporting (to end week 7, 16 Feb) shows no statistical excess mortality. https://assets.publishing.service.go...020_report.pdf

          UK Links to lists - https://www.gov.uk/government/statis...e-2019-to-2020
          the trouble with using this sort of data is that it lags at least two weeks behind. I hope this helps a little.
          "The only security we have is our ability to adapt."

          Comment


          • #36
            WHO advises lockdown model in virus battle
            https://www.thestandard.com.hk/secti...vises-lockdown-
            Bruce Aylward, said China chose to lock down cities which had more than 15 million people,
            which has caused the decline in case increases.
            CFR=3-4% , but only 0.7% outside Wuhan


            why only such large cities ?
            I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
            my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

            Comment


            • #37
              Dr. John Campbell says he received a direct email this morning from Iranian nationals quoting:

              "
              Tehran situation is terrible with reports of deaths by the hour."

              He added that it's from a contact in Iran and he has no way to verify that, but he knows who they are and don't believe they are lying. He also says that there's no real doubt that there's a huge outbreak in Iran.


              Monday morning news
              118,302 views•Feb 24, 2020
              "Safety and security don't just happen, they are the result of collective consensus and public investment. We owe our children, the most vulnerable citizens in our society, a life free of violence and fear."
              -Nelson Mandela

              Comment


              • #38
                We have no way of knowing if this is true or not..

                Source: https://iranintl.com/en/iran/exclusi...ity-quarantine


                Monday, 24 Feb 2020 17:26
                Exclusive: Iran Revolutionary Guards spymaster rejects holy city quarantine

                The intelligence head of Iran’s influential Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps has opposed imposition of quarantine measures on the holy city of Qom where the deadly novel coronavirus started spreading across the country, informed sources told Iran International.

                According to these sources, Hossein Taeb voiced his opposition to a proposal by Iran’s health minister to quarantine Qom during a meeting of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council...

                Comment


                • #39
                  I have a question on Antivirals and what may be the most effective against Covid-19. Are there any studies or anectotal reports that shed some light on what is working, is not working etc. One of the problems I am encountering in my research is the incredible noise being generated by the Pharma and Investing Community. Feels like a lot of stock pumping, and not a lot of backup trail data. Not looking for medical advice - primarily looking for any summations of reportss being received, or actual studies, charts etc that may give some more information on how the Existing Antivirals that are available TODAY are stacking up against this thing. Thanks in advance.

                  This could also expand into any treatment cocktails that seem to be showing efficacy at various stages... antiviral, antibiotic, corticosteroid combinations at early stages for example. Which byt he way, I have seen some studoes that are questioning the use of corticosteroids. Any additional feedback on that is welcome as well. Again, NOT seeking medical advice, only reference to studies, reports, or anedoctal reports that may be compiled for review. I havae a ton already but there is so much out there and I know some wise heads in here may be able to provide more.

                  Comment


                  • #40
                    Chloroquine Phosphate, Favipiravir and Remdesivir,


                    also plasma from recovered people
                    I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                    my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                    Comment


                    • #41
                      I want to remind everyone that we do not give medical advice.

                      As gsgs did above we can direct you to articles or papers.

                      To our participants - Please DO NOT post any personal recommendations for any treatments. Always refer and link to reference materials.

                      Thanks!

                      Comment


                      • #42
                        absent digging through the current status and where things might be headed.. folks should focus on food, water, heat, dependence on electricity..otc meds are a good thing to think through, rx meds, basic first aid stuff, *hardcopy* reference material in case the electronic kind is no longer an option.. and if folks have all that nailed down, they might want to plan how to deal with whatever remains afterwards.. might be the same, might be alot, might not..

                        man.. whatever happened to that box of heirloom seeds i bought years ago? i should probably get more of those... check the deep cycle batteries.. we've still got some of the ibuprofen from h1n1, but really should get more.. still good on benadryl.. need to get more lithium batteries for the pulse oximeters.. we burned through alot of the bandage stuff, need to get more of that.. i'm trying to remember where Auerbach's book went, i know where the Taber's is... jeez, where did i put the gamma lids..?

                        ...like that...

                        also... if folks plan to go when the water and power are off, now would be a good time to figure out where.. and stock up on toilet paper.

                        Comment


                        • #43
                          worst day yesterday for COVID-related financial instruments. Stocks down >3% , oil down, gold up , commonly explained by COVID fear. The BDI was up ~2% raising doubts about its suitability to reflect COVID-fear
                          in a timely manner
                          vaccine stocks were up : Novavax:+5%,Moderna:+4%,Inovio:+9%

                          ----------------------------------------------
                          in a quarantine you could probably order food and water from online-shops and they deliver
                          it to the doors , as currently in Italy
                          I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                          my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                          Comment


                          • #44
                            Hello everyone and thank you all for sharing knowledge to this forum!
                            I have a question regarding plasma treatment.
                            Is that a new finding or maybe something we learnt in the SARS or MERS outbreak?

                            Comment


                            • #45
                              you can best search google scholar for such things
                              https://scholar.google.de/scholar?hl...sma+sars&btnG=
                              or Chinarxic ? or what was the name in another thread here

                              plasma is easily available now, I think that's a big advantage.

                              bioRxiv
                              I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                              my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                              Comment

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