Discussion thread III - Covid-19 (new coronavirus)

[Shiloh]

Coronavirus: WHO hold news conference on Covid-19 outbreak: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p36jfKtVmG8

Worth watching....curious what your thoughts are.

Let me add mine...Seems that the WHO is impressed with the Chinese response. But China is not a democracy. Measures taken such as locking people up in their apartments, dragging people out who are ill etc. wouldn't work here. And what about emptying hospitals of patients who are there for reasons other than Covid-19... We have laws regarding quarantine, but I would think that laws vary by state and perhaps locality. Can you imagine the people in NY or LA howling in the night?

[curiosity]

Coronavirus: WHO hold news conference on Covid-19 outbreak: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p36jfKtVmG8

Worth watching....curious what your thoughts are.

Exquisitely open and honest interpretation of COVID19 in China by an epidemiologist without political expectation.

Key pieces of information I understand are:

Mild and/or asymptomatic cases not as prevelant as expected in school age children - to me this means the disease spreads easily - because it doesnt need small petri dishes to move through the population.

To slow the disease, ALL countries have to react as China did when an outbreak occurs. Shutting down communities and focusing all effort on contact tracing.

To respond to an outbreak and save the most people, there has to be a significant amount of materials on hand - ventilators, ECMO, staff...

The population at large HAS to support response efforts and follow guidance for containment.

To prevent the most casualties, the response has to be for "ALL" not for "I".

China's epi is legit - and they have responded better to their epidemic than many countries will in the future. Key is to identify cases quickly and be committed to tracking all cases to point of origin while containing community spread.

Also my overall sense after taking in all he said is that countries like the US are not ready for this - we could learn from China's response - but current propaganda and general misinformation will prevent that.

Off to Costco for more frosted poptarts and TP.

[Pathfinder]

A real test for these official statements as the city of New Orleans is receiving 1.4 M + visitors from all over the world for Mardi Gras today.


City Holds Coronavirus Planning Meeting, But Calls Risk In New Orleans 'Very Low'

By ASHLEY DEAN • FEB 5, 2020
...
According to a press release, the risk of the general New Orleans public contracting the coronavirus is "very low."

https://www.wwno.org/post/city-holds-coronavirus-planning-meeting-calls-risk-new-orleans-very-low

-----------------------------------------------------
FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 14, 2020

Coronavirus, 2019-nCoV, COVID-19: Separating fact from fiction

By DR. ALEX BILLIOUX | Assistant Secretary, LDH Office of Public Health
...
MYTH: Drinking Corona beer will cure COVID-19.
REALITY: Nope. Just, nope. Having one or two might help you relax, but always drink safely and in moderation.
...
The bottom line

As a public health official, a doctor, a husband and a father, I understand the worries out there around COVID-19. Just remember these three things:

The threat to Louisiana is very low.
...

https://ladepthealth.blogspot.com/2020/02/coronavirus-2019-ncov-covid-19.html

-------------------------------------------------------------

FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 21, 2020

In the event of an emergency ...

By BOB JOHANNESSEN | Bureau of Community Preparedness Communications Consultant, LDH Office of Public Health

We recently sat down with Dr. Frank Welch, medical director for emergency preparedness at the Louisiana Department of Health, who directs and coordinates all aspects of infectious disease planning and response activities for Louisiana.
...
Given how rapidly norovirus recently spread through Southwest Louisiana, can we expect the same from COVID-19?

This depends on several things. First, the ability of the virus to spread. Remember, it appears that one-person sick with COVID-19 can spread it to three other people.

The second thing is the sick person must be in close proximity to someone else.

In China, the city of Wuhan is small in area but has 11 million people. There are a lot of people living and working very close to one another. This has allowed the virus to spread rapidly. You should also remember that it started during the Chinese New Year when there were large crowds of people. This is probably why it spread so quickly.

It is different in Louisiana where we are not nearly so crowded. We have lots of wide open spaces, and to find a crowd of people, you have to actively seek out the crowd. This makes it unlikely that we’d see the same rate of transmission in Louisiana as we’re seeing in Wuhan.

...
Why do some people seem to worry about COVID-19 more than they worry about the flu?

Anything that is new and different captures media attention, as well as the attention of the CDC and the world health organizations. All of this attention elevates the idea that this is something new and different and more dangerous.
...
Anything that is seen as new and different gets an elevated public profile. It might not be all that serious, it’s just different.

http://ladepthealth.blogspot.com/2020/02/in-event-of-emergency.html

[gsgs]

Coronavirus: WHO hold news conference on Covid-19 outbreak: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p36jfKtVmG8

Worth watching....curious what your thoughts are.

Let me add mine...Seems that the WHO is impressed with the Chinese response. But China is not a democracy. Measures taken such as locking people up in their apartments, dragging people out who are ill etc. wouldn't work here. And what about emptying hospitals of patients who are there for reasons other than Covid-19... We have laws regarding quarantine, but I would think that laws vary by state and perhaps locality. Can you imagine the people in NY or LA howling in the night?

why wouldn't it work ? The details how to handle it could be different than in China. The main thing is travel reduction, canceling
school, non-essential work, events, gatherings. Tracking contacts. There will be "competition" , some cities, some countries
use stricter measures than others and we can compare the results.
And some politicians, parties will require stricter measures,. China calls it a war, laws are different in a war.
There should be pandemic plans, war-plans, catastrophe-laws (Notstandsgesetze) which specify this

[cartski]

WHO is impressed because it’s working. Democracy, totalitarianism, communism... whatever...they are irrelevant in this alien ? war ?.

J.

[Thornton]

Wars have collateral damage hat often exceed the targets of intervention. Wars powers are often abused to acquire additional power and can lead to loss of focus from the epidemic. Inclusion and empowement of people to help themselves and others in the long run will help us survive the pandemic and the response to the pandemic. - JT

[kiwibird]

Wars have collateral damage hat often exceed the targets of intervention. Wars powers are often abused to acquire additional power and can lead to loss of focus from the epidemic. Inclusion and empowement of people to help themselves and others in the long run will help us survive the pandemic and the response to the pandemic. - JT

Totally agree. What we, the public, need is accurate information. No one is going to trust a Government or official who has sworn by statistically impossible untruths.

[JJackson]

WHO is impressed because it's working.

Absolutely agree!

Democracy, totalitarianism, communism... whatever...they are irrelevant in this alien ? war ?.

I think these do have some impact in they effect the ability of a government to apply the draconian measures, and have them accepted by their population, needed to deal with an epidemic with an R0 of 2 or above. I am in the UK and I doubt my government - or yours - would have had the guts to take the steps the Chinese did had it occurred here. The fear of the economic consequences would have tempered the robustness of their response and led to inadequate containment. I also doubt the populace would have complied to the same extent having no way to feed themselves, if they are not getting a pay packet, and no confidence their government would bail them out.

[Gert van der Hoek]

The coronavirus seems unstoppable. What should the world do now?


By Jon Cohen, Kai Kupferschmidt

Feb. 25, 2020

“It would be very hard politically and probably not even prudent to relax travel restrictions tomorrow,” says Harvard University epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch. “But in a week, if the news continues at the pace that it’s been the last few days, I think it will become clear that travel restrictions are not the major countermeasure anymore.”

China’s domestic restrictions have come at a huge cost to individuals,

Still, delaying illness can have a big payoff, Lipsitch says. It will mean a lower burden on hospitals and a chance to better train vulnerable health care workers on how to protect themselves, more time for citizens to prepare, and more time to test potentially life-saving drugs and, in the longer term, vaccines.

Flattening the peak of an epidemic also means fewer people are infected overall

suspending public transport, closing entertainment venues, and banning public gatherings were the most effective mitigation interventions in China

Some countries may decide it’s better not to impede the free flow of people too much, keep schools and businesses open, and forgo the quarantining of cities. “That’s quite a big decision to make with regards to public health,” Dye says, “because essentially, it’s saying, ‘We’re going to let this virus go.’”

“The single biggest lesson is: Speed is everything,”

[Shiloh]

No one can verify if this is true...a summary from an Iranian doctor of what is happening there: https://irannewswire.org/isfahan-doc...ut-of-control/

[kiwibird]

WHO advocates the "speed is everything" remit. What has happened in China should be a warning to every country - and that is in spite of the sweeping measures. Imagine if they had just let it run! Their sacrifice has brought us some time - but not to squander. The audio is ties up with this one https://twitter.com/i/status/1230551812358447104 I think the politicians have dithered and the cat is out of the bag already. Japan is only just shutting down major events - and it has had to come at the direction of the Prime Minister. Britain feels like it is still on a little stroll and only now starting to test some flu patients who don't meet the previous "criteria".

See: https://www.rcgp.org.uk/-/media/Week...020.ashx?la=en
to read in conjunction with: https://apps.who.int/classifications....htm?gj10.htm+

[sharon sanders]

This weekend is: I Gotta Have My Addiction Weekend

If you are quarantined for 2 weeks what do you gotta have? For me it is chocolate.

No judgment - Go get your addiction this weekend - enough for 2 weeks.

For other stuff:

https://www.ready.gov/pandemic

#coronavirus #COVIDー19

[JJackson]

Re. Speed is everything.
Chinese medics were heavily involved in the West African Ebola outbreak providing medics, beds and labs. I am sure they will have taken away the lessons learnt by the International community's slow response. MSF, and others, were screaming for help right from the outset but little was done, once the outside world woke up they poured in massive aid but still very nearly lost control of the outbreak. Had we, collectively, put in the resources required immediately the outbreak was unlikely to have developed into the catastrophe that occurred either in terms of human or monetary costs. The question is who else was paying attention and learned that hitting an outbreak hard and fast pays dividends in the longer term? As always, if you do go in hard and fast and achieve early containment, the talking heads will claim too much effort was expended on a non event. It is the eternal Catch 22 and can only be countered by consistent and persistent messaging.

[kiwibird]

It's that whole "not making a decision is making a decision" mentality. We have to be more brave than that. There is too much at stake.

[Shiloh]

Again, no one knows if this is true: North Korea's first confirmed Coronavirus COVID 19 patient shot dead: report
Source: https://www.ibtimes.sg/north-koreas-...d-report-40042

[sharon sanders]

Please - A reminder - No Politics on FT.

Hi Everyone -

The United States is in the midst of a very divisive political environment. Let's be sure to tap down our political feelings when we post.

It is fair to discuss various health departments - their actions or inactions, mistakes, advice and such. For instance, I am really wth over the US COVID-19 test kit situation but I am not blaming anyone personally because I have no idea what is going on there.

There are some comments about the UK health system above. This is fair. There are data that the system is overwhelmed - since a long time.

We need to keep everything on FT as collegial as possible.

We are the only media of our type. We do not accept ads. We do not accept any corporate or government $. People look to us for objectivity.

Thanks for your understanding. We are a political free zone.

[sharon sanders]

First documented community spread case in the US:

https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/united-states-2019-ncov/824817-us-california-2019-ncov-confirmed-cases-and-news-updates?p=831753#post831753

[Emily]

Travis Air Force base is in Solano County. Military, federal, state and city jurisdictions are in a legal battle over that one. State feared local hospitals could not handle the strain. Virus may have leaked out of one of them, or the base itself. This will make quarantine centers even bigger hot potatoes.