Discussion thread II - Covid-19 (new coronavirus)

[Laidback Al]

I have to respond to Hawkeye’s post #112 about the video link.

First, you should be skeptical when the speaker points out that after 20 cycles (days) there will be more than 274 billion infected people (at 10:41), that is about 40 times more people than exist on the planet today.

The authors of the article indicate that the R₀ is about 4 meaning that each new case was infecting four other people. However, in reviewing the cited article, you need to recognized that the authors are not controlling for cases that were identified in previous periods. At some point, long before we get to 274 billion infections, every one will be infected, not once or twice or three times, but many times over, according to these authors.

The fallacy of this paper is that they are relying only on the total growth of cases to compute the R₀ . The proper way to estimate the R₀ is by looking only at the growth of the NEW cases from one period to the next. I have updated the chart on the growth of daily new cases through the 30^th of January at this link. The growth of new cases from the past weeks do NOT support the R₀ proposed by the authors of this article.

We need to be worried about this outbreak, but it is not yet time to panic.

[hawkeye]

Hi Everyone!

Thank you for participating.

I wanted to thank Hawkeye for his low key way of presenting some disturbing information in post 112.

We have a large following with 6 million hits in January. It is important that we not only provide the news above, but also remain "calm and collected" when posting here in the comments area.

As the data presented in post 112 is based on preliminary information, I have no idea if it is realistic or not. I think many cases are undiagnosed and - who knows how many deaths?

I am asking all participants to remain calm on the site. Many are looking to us as Independent Media.

We have a chance to help many.

Thanks Sharon. I agree. The key to this is to be aware and observe with a keen eye and calm actions. Panic is not going to help anyone and will only cause more distress and damage as it pertains to reaching those who simply aren't being mindful of the situation. Also, we need to remember that it is very fluid right now - things can change just as quickly (if not quicker) than they have begun.

[hawkeye]

I have to respond to Hawkeye’s post #112 about the video link.

First, you should be skeptical when the speaker points out that after 20 cycles (days) there will be more than 274 billion infected people (at 10:41), that is about 40 times more people than exist on the planet today.

The authors of the article indicate that the R₀ is about 4 meaning that each new case was infecting four other people. However, in reviewing the cited article, you need to recognized that the authors are not controlling for cases that were identified in previous periods. At some point, long before we get to 274 billion infections, every one will be infected, not once or twice or three times, but many times over, according to these authors.

The fallacy of this paper is that they are relying only on the total growth of cases to compute the R₀ . The proper way to estimate the R₀ is by looking only at the growth of the NEW cases from one period to the next. I have updated the chart on the growth of daily new cases through the 30^th of January at this link. The growth of new cases from the past weeks do NOT support the R₀ proposed by the authors of this article.

We need to be worried about this outbreak, but it is not yet time to panic.

Thanks LA - reading what you've written, do we know if reinfection is not possible (I'm sure there are always exceptions, but I'm asking with regards to the general population)? I hadn't thought about it until now.

[vlandeck]

Laidback Al, Thank you for making that point regarding RO miscalculation. A similar mistake was made in one or two previous posts a few days ago here and on seveal other websites.

What has me curious today is the fact that newly confirmed cases have flatlined the last ~four days in China. I don't have any evidence, but I am simply curious if what we are seeing is a max capacity issue in the processing of cases somewhere along the clinical chain from Emergency Rood admittance to laboratory confirmation to clerical reporting. In normal situations, the staffing level and equipment through put exertss limitation on production. Have we simply taxed the system so that we are flatlined in the daily reporting. This would only apply to those centers or areas suffering from the worst of the onslaught of patients.

For discussion, thanks.

[NawtyBits]

Thanks LA - reading what you've written, do we know if reinfection is not possible (I'm sure there are always exceptions, but I'm asking with regards to the general population)? I hadn't thought about it until now.

https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?depth=1&hl=en&rurl=translate.google.com&sl=auto&sp=nmt4&tl=en&u=https://boxun.com/news/gb/health/2020/01/202001311717.shtml&xid=17259,15700021,15700186,15700191,15700259,15700271&usg=ALkJrhgP2n8zcN9BxS0poEAnmDpR8cUHSQ

Expert: Wuhan pneumonia is still at risk of reinfection or pulmonary fibrosis sequelae after healing

Experts point out that patients who have recovered from the new type of coronavirus pneumonia still have the risk of reinfection, and they should strengthen their protection.

The new coronavirus pneumonia epidemic is raging, and many cases have been recovered so far. However, at the press conference of the National Health Commission on Friday (31st), experts pointed out that patients who are cured still have the risk of reinfection, so protection should be strengthened.

In addition, experts also mentioned that generally mild patients have no sequelae after recovery, and very severe patients may have pulmonary fibrosis for a period of time.

Zhan Qingyuan, director of the fourth and fifth department of Respiratory Medicine of the Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, China-Japan Friendship Hospital, pointed out that the general rule of viral infection, patients will produce certain antibodies after viral infection, which has a protective effect on the human body. But in fact, antibodies may not last long, so patients who have recovered from new coronavirus pneumonia still have the risk of reinfection, and they should strengthen their protection.

Regarding the question of whether the cured patients will have sequelae, Zhan Qingyuan pointed out that after clinically found that the new type of coronavirus infection, the patients were mainly damaged lungs, but mild patients should have no sequelae, and severe patients may have a residual for a period of time Lung damage repairs changes, such as fibrosis. But Zhan Qingyuan emphasized that the lung's repairing ability is very strong, and most of the fibrosis can be repaired. "But for very heavy, very, very, very few patients, they may leave a little lung for a long time. Fibrosis, we need to strengthen the follow-up. "

[hawkeye]

Thanks NawtyBits!

[hawkeye]

Japan has confirmed an additional 3 cases of nCov among evacuees from the Chinese city of Wuhan. Including one who initially tested negative.

One of the three, a man in his 40s who had symptoms such as fever and coughing, first tested negative for nCov.

https://www.jpost.com/Breaking-News/Japan-three-people-evacuated-from-China-positive-for-coronavirus-616188

[hawkeye]

The final hours of the 40 year old who died in the in Philippines echo what I've read from various posts regarding deaths in China.

"BREAKING: Philippines health officials say that in the #coronavirus patient's last few days, he was stable and showed signs of improvement, however, the condition of the patient deteriorated within his last 24 hours resulting in his death - CNN Philippines"

https://twitter.com/LIVEBreakingNow/status/1223821665940828161

[alert]

The final hours of the 40 year old who died in the in Philippines echo what I've read from various posts regarding deaths in China.

"BREAKING: Philippines health officials say that in the #coronavirus patient's last few days, he was stable and showed signs of improvement, however, the condition of the patient deteriorated within his last 24 hours resulting in his death - CNN Philippines"

https://twitter.com/LIVEBreakingNow/...21665940828161

Wondering if that's not a sign of a hospital acquired co-infection, perhaps a bacterial one.

[hawkeye]

Viral shedding even after recovery?

"The fact that asymptomatic persons are potential sources of 2019-nCoV infection may warrant a reassessment of transmission dynamics of the current outbreak. In this context, the detection of 2019-nCoV and a high sputum viral load in a convalescent patient (Patient 1) arouse concern about prolonged shedding of 2019-nCoV after recovery. Yet, the viability of 2019-nCoV detected on qRT-PCR in this patient remains to be proved by means of viral culture."

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2001468

[hawkeye]

Apparently, not only did they dox him, they accused him of creating this virus and putting part of the HIV/AIDS virus in it.

(Yes, I am aware there are some people who feel that short, often less than 20 base pairs, shared sequences between two unrelated viruses like H5N1 and Ebola or HIV and nCoV indicate recombination as opposed to sheer statistical coincidence. But that's not what's being accused here.)

Just passing this along. Seen it show up in a message board. Seems to have a lot of the same keywords.

"we extended our previous study to ACE2 molecules from seven additional bat species and tested their interactions with human SARS-CoV spike protein using both HIV-based pseudotype and live SARS-CoV infection assays. The results show that ACE2s of Myotis daubentoni and Rhinolophus sinicus support viral entry mediated by the SARS-CoV S protein.."

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00705-010-0729-6

[QuadrupleM]

Wondering if that's not a sign of a hospital acquired co-infection, perhaps a bacterial one.

Yes to die quickly could be sepsis a bacterial infection in his blood from a pneumonia. Or cardiac complication. We also don’t know if he was ventilated from the stories I have seen.

per WHO he was coinfected with strep pneumonia which is a bacterial infection and Flu B.

https://twitter.com/whophilippines/status/1223824965851480064?s=21

[gsgs]

ahh, I wonder what Zhan Qingyuan exactly said, I saw it translated differently.
My understanding : most people (>80%??) will have antibodies, but some maybe not enough
and you should still be careful.
(and with SARS the protection was for ~2 years when it slowly went down)

[hawkeye]

I can understand disinfecting the inside by spraying...but I'm not understanding this level of disinfectant.

Please see this video of what appears to be the outside of the plane being sprayed as well as the tarmac.

https://twitter.com/ISCResearch/stat...25934546751488

[Laidback Al]

I can understand disinfecting the inside by spraying...but I'm not understanding this level of disinfectant.

Please see this video of what appears to be the outside of the plane being sprayed as well as the tarmac.

https://twitter.com/ISCResearch/stat...25934546751488

I don't have an opinion on why they are decontaminating the outside of the plane or the tarmac if this is a real video. I would note that there are reports that some Chinese citizens are resorting to traditional medicines maybe because of superstitions or because they have no other options now that the hospitals are full. i expect we will see more odd behavior as this epidemic grows.

[Emily]

Bringing back traditional culture could be a good thing for China.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/01/asia/chinese-traditional-medicine-claims-coronavirus-intl-scli-hnk/index.html

"The two institutes that discovered Shuanghuanglian's alleged ability to "inhibit" the coronavirus are both state-run bodies. The Shanghai Institute of Materia Medica is under the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), a top government think tank. The Wuhan Institute of Virology is also administered by the CAS and is among the country's most advanced virus research laboratories.
The news comes after China's National Health Commission issued a notice on the treatment of the coronavirus on Monday, asking medical institutions to "actively promote the role of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) during treatment."

"The recent promotion of TCM in China is also in line with Xi's push to revive traditional Chinese culture, breaking away from the ruling Communist Party's earlier path under late Chairman Mao Zedong, during which time elements of traditional culture were often attacked, especially during the Cultural Revolution."