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Discussion thread II - Covid-19 (new coronavirus)

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  • #16
    kiwi : no, read it now ...antibiotic + antiviral had 47% lower risk for respiratory hospitalization than antivirals alone (flu,pneumonia)
    I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
    my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

    Comment


    • kiwibird
      kiwibird commented
      Editing a comment
      Not sure what you are getting at? I read it to mean a 47% lower risk if prescribed antibiotics and antivirals.

      "Those prescribed an antiviral, antibiotic, or both had a lower risk of hospitalization within 30 days compared to those without therapy. Furthermore, intervention with both an antibiotic and antiviral had a lower risk of respiratory hospitalization within 30 days compared to those with an antiviral alone. Importantly, the absolute magnitude of decreased risk with antibiotic + antiviral therapy is small and must be interpreted within the context of the overall risk of antibiotic usage."

      Is that not how you read it?

  • #17
    I'm wondering ...
    I'm not aware of sustained uncontrolled outbreaks outside Wuhan
    (did I miss some ? ------edit ----- OK, Zhejiang obviously, some other provinces likely)

    ---------------------------------------
    January 27, 2020 at 9:02 pm
    “Really emphasizing to New Yorkers, it’s probably here already. That’s the sad reality,”
    Mayor Bill de Blasio said.
    Mayor de Blasio said much about the mysterious virus remains unknown.
    “On a spectrum of diseases, if we are lucky it’s more like the common cold. If we are
    unlucky, it’s more like SARS and so far it sure looks more like SARS,” de Blasio said.
    Edit/Delete Message
    I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
    my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

    Comment


    • #18
      On est bien face ? une zoonose, certainement due, ? des pratiques tr?s discutable, mais jamais vraiment discut?es. Si j'ai un profond respect pour les traditions locales, dont les pratiques de l'alimentation chinoise traditionnelle, parfois certaines traditions doivent devenir des coutumes.

      Donc, certes, il faut voir l'aspect humain.

      Mais, quand, l'on sait la comp?tence des m?decins chinois, mais aussi, de tous les autres, pour g?rer des dossiers de telle nature, voir chiffre de d?c?s, tous les ans, pour les "grippes", donc des zoonoses ou se m?lent des coronavirus et des influenzas .

      Quand on ?tudie, les crises, depuis bien longtemps, et que l'on voie ce qui se passe, on peut avoir honte pour la notion d'humain.


      Ce type de crise, pr?vue depuis bien longtemps, et en total respect avec le peuple chinois, qui subit, l?, et la crise peste porcine africaine et celle-ci , demande une communication d'un tout autre niveau ...

      On sait les limites et de l'O.M.S et de L'O.I.E , mais le silence des v?t?rinaires chinois, qui ne doivent pas avoir le droit de communiquer me d?range ...

      Comment


      • #19
        kiwibird, I meant:
        > Comparing the antibiotic + antiviral cohort to those who were prescribed an antiviral alone,
        > there was 47% lower risk for respiratory hospitalization (RR=0.53, 95% CI=0.31-0.94)
        > and no other statistical differences were detected

        I thought that was your point, adding antibiotics helps. And the same might work for nCoV regarging the start as a cold and then
        getting worse after a week ? Although they probably are trying this without success

        [how to incluse this as "comment" to the post as you did ?]
        I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
        my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

        Comment


        • #20
          Originally posted by kiwibird View Post

          FredRoosevelt - We need some physics buffs here - but I would think it was good news that the red line has a little downward dip. With everyone being more vigilant and countries blocking mass movement - and whole cities - and their citizens - being incredibly brave and responsible in sheltering in place - it can only help to reduce that blue line too.
          One possible explanation for the slight divergence of the curves could be that more testing is resulting in confirmation of milder cases, so that although infections might actually increase on a logarithmic scale, severe cases and deaths might not. Also, as it spreads and people develop immunity in a given population center, herd immunity will increase to the point where it no longer spreads efficiently.

          Unfortunately, the Hong Kong scientists who produced one of the models is showing a peak in China around May of this year, so this isn't going away any time soon.

          "I know God will not give me anything I can't handle. I just wish that He didn't trust me so much." - Mother Teresa of Calcutta

          Comment


          • kiwibird
            kiwibird commented
            Editing a comment
            Yes I just read that one lady from Wuhan visited her family for 19 days without showing symptoms, infected 5 of her family and was then tested positive - still without showing symptoms.

            Further news - https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/...-services-hong United Airlines among those cutting Hong Kong route.

        • #21
          Hi Everyone!

          If you have an idea for additions to the forum please post here.

          Things are different now. Most people access the internet with their phone.

          Our forum set up is ok for people using computers, but for all the people using phones it is not.

          It is easier to scroll down a long thread than to search a large site.

          I would like to keep the threads to a minumum for this reason.

          I can limit the discussion thread to a certain numbers of posts before I open a new one. Let me know what number is good. (i.e. close the discussion thread at 100 posts.)

          Comment


          • #22
            maybe one thread per day then ? I have to select "filters" , "today" or else it starts with the first post
            I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
            my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

            Comment


            • #23
              Originally posted by kiwibird View Post

              FredRoosevelt - We need some physics buffs here - but I would think it was good news that the red line has a little downward dip.
              Any downward dip in the red line is great news. My concern is that the red (deaths) line is lagging the blue (case) line - the number of recovered cases is lower than the number of deaths in every region that there is reliable data for. If 1 in 4 cases is a severe case and the ratio of deaths to recoveries stays around the current 132:110 then we are looking at a 55% death rate in severe cases or around 14% overall. If this keeps growing at its current rate, the ability of the health system to treat severe cases will be constrained and the death rate could increase. On the flip side, the death rate won't exceed 1 in 4 which leaves more than enough carriers to stop the virus from burning itself out. At this point, it appears that only Summer will slow it down as coronavirus doesn't transmit as easily in Summer. Hoping that this is true for the current strain.

              Comment


              • JimO
                JimO commented
                Editing a comment
                That's a good point about the capacity to treat severe cases. Once that is reached, tough decisions will have to be made and people who otherwise might survive with intensive treatment, might not make it.

            • #25
              Source: https://twitter.com/BreakingNAgency/...45197562834946




              #BREAKING: WHO is to reconvene the International Health Regulations Emergency Committee on the Novel #Coronavirus tomorrow.
              Quote Tweet



              Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus



              @DrTedros






              ? 21m

              I have decided to reconvene the International Health Regulations Emergency Committee on the new #coronavirus (2019-nCoV) tomorrow to advise me on whether the current outbreak constitutes a public health emergency of international concern.
              Show this thread



              Image













              10:41 AM ? Jan 29, 2020?Twitter Web Client


              Comment


              • #26
                Il a ?t? indiqu? ce site : http://nmdc.cn/#/nCoV

                Au total, 585 ?chantillons ont ?t? pr?lev?s dans deux lots de South China Seafood City. Les tests de PCR ont montr? que 33 ?chantillons ?taient positifs pour le nouvel acide nucl?ique du coronavirus. Ces ?chantillons positifs ont ?t? distribu?s dans 22 ?tals et 1 camion ? ordures sur le march?, dont 93,9% (31/33) des ?chantillons positifs ont ?t? distribu?s dans la partie ouest du march? des fruits de mer de Chine m?ridionale. L'enqu?te a r?v?l? que le march? des fruits de mer de la Chine m?ridionale ?tait nominalement un march? de fruits de mer, mais ?tait en fait un march? global. Il y a un commerce d'esp?ces sauvages dans la partie ouest du march? des fruits de mer de la Chine du Sud, en particulier dans les zones proches des 7e et 8e rues de la zone ouest, o? il y a de nombreux marchands d'animaux sauvages, et les sp?cimens positifs dans cette zone sont ?galement concentr?s, repr?sentant 42,4% de tous les ?chantillons positifs (14 / 33). En r?sum?, on soup?onne fortement que l'?pid?mie est li?e au commerce des esp?ces sauvages.
                国家微生物科学数据中心(National Microbiology Data Center ,NMDC)于2019年6月经科技部、财政部通知公布,由中科院微生物研究所作为依托单位建设。中心按照2018年国家发布的《科学数据管理办法》,承担微生物领域科学数据汇交管理、共享与服务工作,中心建立了微生物领域完善的数据体系,数据内容覆盖微生物资源、研究过程及工程、微生物组学、微生物技术、合成生物学等交叉学科以及微生物文献、专利、专家、成果等知识库,重点推进微生物领域科技资源向国家平台汇聚与整合,为科学研究、技术进步和社会发展提供高质量的科学数据资源共享服务。


                c'est pourquoi je souhaite les avis des v?t?rinaires chinois...

                Comment


                • kiwibird
                  kiwibird commented
                  Editing a comment
                  An English version of your post via google translate. For everyones consideration.

                  It was indicated this site: http://nmdc.cn/#/nCoV

                  A total of 585 samples were taken from two lots in South China Seafood City. PCR tests showed that 33 samples were positive for the new coronavirus nucleic acid. These positive samples were distributed in 22 stalls and 1 garbage truck on the market, of which 93.9% (31/33) of the positive samples were distributed in the western part of the seafood market in South China. The investigation revealed that the seafood market in South China was nominally a seafood market, but was in fact a global market. There is a wildlife trade in the western part of the South China seafood market, especially in the areas near 7th and 8th streets in the western zone, where there are many merchants wild animals, and positive specimens in this area are also concentrated, accounting for 42.4% of all positive samples (14/33). In summary, there is a strong suspicion that the epidemic is linked to the wildlife trade.
                  国家微生物科学数据中心(National Microbiology Data Center ,NMDC)于2019年6月经科技部、财政部通知公布,由中科院微生物研究所作为依托单位建设。中心按照2018年国家发布的《科学数据管理办法》,承担微生物领域科学数据汇交管理、共享与服务工作,中心建立了微生物领域完善的数据体系,数据内容覆盖微生物资源、研究过程及工程、微生物组学、微生物技术、合成生物学等交叉学科以及微生物文献、专利、专家、成果等知识库,重点推进微生物领域科技资源向国家平台汇聚与整合,为科学研究、技术进步和社会发展提供高质量的科学数据资源共享服务。


                  that's why I want the opinions of Chinese veterinarians

              • #27
                I'm watching the WHO press conference and to my surprise and alarm, they have not discounted a case fatality rate of as much as 2%, although they stated that it is early and that reliable infection and fatality rates cannot be determined this early. This is in the CFR range of the 1918 H1N1, which is an order of magnitude higher than seasonal flu.
                "I know God will not give me anything I can't handle. I just wish that He didn't trust me so much." - Mother Teresa of Calcutta

                Comment


                • JimO
                  JimO commented
                  Editing a comment
                  The WHO representatives have been emphatic that China has been completely transparent and provided timely reports of available information. I suppose they have to be careful not to criticize the Chinese government if they want some level of cooperation, but I think it is naive, at least, to believe that China has been transparent and fully cooperative.

              • #28
                If this is true we have a huge problem !

                Thailand cannot stop the spread of a mysterious disease within its borders after the virus popped up in China earlier this year.Thailand’s health ministry has confirmed 14 cases of coronavirus, the second-most of any country behind China. China has more than 4,500 confirmed cases of the virus, mostly in the city of Wuhan, where the


                Thailand’s health ministry has confirmed 14 cases of coronavirus, the second-most of any country behind China. China has more than 4,500 confirmed cases of the virus, mostly in the city of Wuhan, where the virus began. More than 100 Chinese people have died from the disease.

                Thailand health minister Anutin Charnvirakul said on Tuesday that the government is “not able to stop the spread” of coronavirus in the country, according to Sky News.
                The Thai government estimates that about 22,000 tourists from Wuhan visited the country in January, possibly exposing vast numbers of people to the virus.

                Comment


                • #29
                  Originally posted by Jim Oliveros View Post
                  I'm watching the WHO press conference and to my surprise and alarm, they have not discounted a case fatality rate of as much as 2%, although they stated that it is early and that reliable infection and fatality rates cannot be determined this early. This is in the CFR range of the 1918 H1N1, which is an order of magnitude higher than seasonal flu.
                  I haven't discounted a fatality rate as high as 8-10% (or as low as that of seasonal flu). With over 96% of confirmed cases still ill, it's too early to know the CFR.

                  Personally, 2% is probably somewhere in the middle of my estimates.

                  Comment


                  • #30
                    Originally posted by Jim Oliveros View Post
                    I'm watching the WHO press conference and to my surprise and alarm, they have not discounted a case fatality rate of as much as 2%, although they stated that it is early and that reliable infection and fatality rates cannot be determined this early. This is in the CFR range of the 1918 H1N1, which is an order of magnitude higher than seasonal flu.
                    No one knows the cfr because no one knows the true number of cases. It is impossible to calculate.

                    Comment

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