Tweet
it takes ~3weeks in average until death and cases redoubled every 3-4 days in China until Feb.5
-
I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT -
Old news - but may be of use with plotting graphs? http://www.mychinanews.com/news/n/6/2419074
The "Chinese Journal of Epidemiology" official website published the latest paper "Analysis of Epidemiological Features of New Coronavirus Pneumonia" submitted by the Epidemiology Group of the New Coronary Virus Pneumonia Emergency Response Mechanism of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention on February 12. On February 11, 2020, all cases reported in Mainland China were described and analyzed for epidemiological characteristics, and many key data were disclosed.
The data in the paper show that according to the statistics of the onset date, 104 people were infected and 15 died before December 31, 2019.
Thumbnail view only, Click to view original image.
Neocoronavirus pneumonia epidemic shifts to community transmission after January 1
The Wuhan Municipal Health and Family Planning Commission reported the unknown pneumonia epidemic on January 3 and did not mention any deaths. The report said, "As of 8:00 on January 3, a total of 44 patients with unexplained diagnosis of viral pneumonia were found, of which 11 were critically ill, and the remaining patients were generally stable in vital signs. At present, all cases are receiving isolation treatment in Wuhan medical institutions. , 121 close contacts have been tracked for parallel medical observations, and close contact tracking is still ongoing. "
The paper explains the concept of "date of onset". For an epidemiological curve, the date of onset is defined as the date on which a case begins to report a fever or cough in an epidemiological investigation.
The cases counted in this paper are classified as suspected cases, confirmed cases, clinically diagnosed cases (only in Hubei), and asymptomatic infections. Suspected cases are clinically diagnosed based on symptoms and exposure history; clinically diagnosed cases are those whose suspected cases have imaging characteristics of pneumonia (only applicable in Hubei Province); confirmed cases are those whose suspected cases also have positive results of viral nucleic acid testing; asymptomatic Infection refers to positive pathogenic detection of new coronavirus in specimens such as the respiratory tract. The "onset day" of asymptomatic infection is replaced by a positive laboratory test date."The only security we have is our ability to adapt."Comment
-
Source: https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news...china-12455092
Nepal paper defiant after China slams COVID-19 criticism
The Kathmandu Post has accused the Chinese embassy in Nepal of trying to muzzle free speech
20 Feb 2020 09:15PM
(Updated: 20 Feb 2020 09:16PM)
KATHMANDU: A Nepalese newspaper on Thursday (Feb 20) slammed Beijing for trying to muzzle free speech after it was accused of "deliberate" and "malicious" smearing by the Chinese embassy in the Himalayan nation.
The embassy had sharply criticised the Kathmandu Post on Tuesday for publishing a syndicated column which argued that China's authoritarian system of government had worsened the deadly coronavirus outbreak.
The reaction from the embassy came as China ordered three Wall Street Journal reporters to leave the country over an op-ed headline that Beijing had deemed racist, one of the country's harshest moves against foreign media in years.
"The Chinese embassy did not just express its discontent with the article published; it went so far as to disparage the Post's Editor-in-Chief and employ threatening language," the Kathmandu Post said in an editorial...Comment
-
Found this of interest regarding flu:
In San Quentin Prison, Getting The Flu Can Land You In Solitary Confinement
Prisoners avoid admitting they are sick because they don’t want to be put in solitary, so nurses go cell to cell to take their temperatures.
Juan Moreno Haines Feb 20, 2020
Juan Moreno Haines is an award-winning incarcerated journalist and a member of the Society of Professional Journalists. This article was made possible by a grant from the Solitary Confinement Reporting Project, which is managed by Solitary Watch with funding from the Vital Projects Fund.
Flu epidemics, which have been common at San Quentin State Prison, can turn someone’s life upside down. Take for example the story of 52-year-old Michael D. Adams.
It was the 2019 flu season. Adams sat on his bunk in a prison housing unit. More than 700 men were held there, double-bunked in windowless cells stacked five tiers high, each smaller than the average bathroom...
Read more: https://theappeal.org/san-quentin-pr...y-confinement/
Comment
-
These are pieces of info that just do not make sense to me - please clarify if you have answers.
1.China reports significant decreases in numbers - significantly Shanghai had zero reported cases yesterday.- On the cruise ship, cases increased quickly. How is this NOT happening (being detected) in the multi-unit dwellings?
- Other countries actively looking for disease and finding cases - China is not actively looking for disease?
2. South Korea, Japan, even Iran reporting many discovered cases in general population with ongoing, rapid transmission- These discoveries seem to be after identification of a severe case first. Do these events increase the validity of the US CDC that outbreaks in US (or anywhere) may occur at anytime? If yes, ARE they overreacting?
3. Tedros keeps insisting the virus can be contained.- What evidence exists that makes this a possibility? The decreasing China numbers? If yes, refer to one above - how could they contain if not actively seeking out cases?
5. At what point do the leaders say: This is a virus we all have to reckon with - get ready? Will active surveillance for the virus help us prevent Wuhan events? Time will tell. Poorer countries will not fare well.
Also...
The market/economy discussions are all about COVID19. Obviously, the impact from China shutdown is great. At some point an economic disaster will cause more deaths than COVID19 outbreaks. China has to gauge that right now - and I think decreasing their numbers is their way of trying to reinstate the economy, get back to work, and deal with the medical fallout - which ultimately is less deadly than starvation and infrastructure collapse. The livelihood AND health of millions - billions - are at stake.
I am inclined to think our entire world will be infected eventually - and that the actions China made were significant in allowing us all to prepare for this eventuality. I dont know that other countries, including my own, would do the same. China's actions are honorable.Comment
-
In the closed cities, only one person can leave the household every 2-3 days to shop. I would think they have someone at the entrance of a multi-family unit taking temperatures/checking for symptoms and also cleaning elevators and common spaces. If a case is discovered in the bldg., the building itself is quarantined. I do believe China is going door to door in the closed cities looking for cases.
-
From the live Spokane presser.
4 patients
part of repatriation efforts
from Travis AFB
2 are there
2nd flight this afternoon
Comment
-
Source: https://www.radiofarda.com/a/iran-co.../30445327.html
"Corona transfer source in Iran not clear yet", identification of suspicious case in Metro Shush
1 / March / 2
Radio Farda
A member of the Central Council of the Islamic Society of Iran's Medical Society who has lost his brother in Qom to the coronation virus criticized hospital officials for trying to 'keep silent' the cases and criticized the deaths of 'tens' He reported similar symptoms.
On the other hand, Kianoush Jahanpour, an official at the Iranian Ministry of Health, said, "The source of the contagion and transmission of the disease in the country has not yet been determined."
Mohammad Mawlai, a member of the council, told Rokna News Agency that he had not received a coronation during a week of inpatient hospitalization, and only on the last day had the physician "insisted" and responded. It has also been positive.
According to him, hospital officials in Qom refrained from taking corona biopsies while "dozens died with these symptoms in Qom and declared the cause was pneumonia and lung infection."
The member of the Central Council of the Islamic Society of Medical Society of Iran added, however, that their cause of death was "not really known as pneumonia, influenza or corona."
Mr Mawlai emphasized that his four-year-old brother "had no underlying disease, no travel anywhere and had a coronary alley in the market."
His remarks came after confirmation of the positive results of Corona's sampling of two residents of Qom and shortly thereafter, announcing their deaths.
But the news comes amid reports that several Ministry of Health officials, especially in the past week, have repeatedly denied any coronavirus infection in Iran.
On Thursday, March 1st, news came from various cities in Iran about seeing the suspected cases of Corona virus.
Nahid Khodakarami, head of the Tehran City Council's Health Committee, also spoke to ISNA on the preparation of guidelines to combat coronavirus in public transport.
More about:
Confirmation of three cases of corona virus in Qom and Arak, transfer of five suspected cases to Tehran
According to him, disinfectants will be installed at every subway and bus stop and at the end of each shift public transport facilities, including bus and subway, will be washed and disinfected.
Minister of Education Mohsen Hajimirzai also announced the order to "load" the necessary corona prevention equipment in schools.
Hossein Safavi, director of the Food and Drug Administration's Medical Equipment and Supplies, also said, "All manufacturers of medical masks are producing and producing 1 million and 6,000 masks daily, which meet the country's needs."
According to the official, several shipments of masks were shipped to Qom province last night.
Iran's emergency spokesman Mojtaba Khaledi also said fewer than 10 cases of transfers of suspected coronaviruses from different parts of Tehran to the referral hospitals were reported.
"A suspicious case was observed at the Shoosh subway station, which immediately transported the emergency and passenger to the hospital, and the station was also cleaned," said Farnoush Nobakht, director of the Tehran and Suburbs Subway Operating Company. "Of course, it is impossible to comment on whether it is suspicious."
Meanwhile, IRNA head Pir Hossein Kollivand, in a letter to medical university presidents, banned the transfer of suspected patients to Corona by private ambulance.
The letter also emphasized the ban on the transfer of patients between cities and said that according to the instructions, these patients should be transferred by special operations teams.
Meanwhile, ILNA quoted Kianoush Jahanpour, a spokesman for the Ministry of Health, as saying that as of Thursday morning, "the tests revealed two new cases in Qom and one in Arak, all three patients were Iranian nationals and one in Arak," the ILNA news agency reported. He is a resident of Qom and a physician associate. "
According to Mr. Jahanpour, the dismissal of all heads and deputies of universities and colleges of medical sciences across the country by the order of the Minister of Health until secondary information has been canceled and all overseas missions have been canceled.
He has proposed restricting travel to places of worship in Qom until secondary information is abolished, and student and tourist camps and seminars and conferences in Qom canceled until secondary information.
Sources: RECNA, ILNA, IRNA, ISNA and RadioFreda / b. B / w Two.
Comment
-
pilgrims ?
2019, 10 August[47] , 1.8M + .6M from Saudi
can be undertaken at any time of the year
just a quick calculation :
9 deaths now , these were maybe infected ~3 weeks ago , count 100 cases per death,
uncontrolled redoubling every 3.5 days ,as in China early Feb. ==> 57600 cases now
I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgTComment
-
I suspect this outfit is like the Epoch Times...and there is no way to confirm until Iran officially reports...
Friday, 21 Feb 2020 01:42
Exclusive: Nine Coronavirus deaths in Qom city
Based on the reports that Iran International has received, so far, eight coronavirus patients have died in Qom city’s Kamkar-Arabnia hospital with two hospital personnel in intensive care, and one woman passed away from coronavirus in Qom’s Imam Reza hospital.
According to these reports, Qom’s Beheshti hospital with 2100 personnel has distributed 200 L95 masks among them.
The sources told Iran International that several cases of coronavirus have been spotted in Mashhad city and two patients have died of the virus in the northern provinces of Iran. Iranian officials have not commented on these cases...
Read more: https://iranintl.com/en/iran/exclusi...eaths-qom-city
Comment
-
https://twitter.com/HeshmatAlavi/sta...00273992785920 This twitter account appears to have supplied accurate information over the past few days.
-
-
I want to make a comment about masks because the messaging is that you don't need masks. That they won't work because you won't fit them correctly to your face.
Ok - so the real deal is that there are no masks. This is why the various government, experts, et. al. are saying this. China is the major mask producer in the world and they are keeping the masks for themselves. Also, I read that they are not exporting any mask components either.
It is my understanding that various governments are hoarding masks for their strategic stockpiles so they can dole them out as they see fit. Mostly the armed forces, health care workers, emergency workers, police forces - you get the idea.
Bottom line - the masks are all gone and there will not be any for you personally unless you are an "essential" worker.
I do not know why TPTB tell us masks are not needed when all of the health care workers tending to Covid-19 patients are wearing hazmat suits. The US personnel evacuating citizens from China were wearing hazmat+ suits. Some cities in China are actually requiring people to wear masks outside.
We are not idiots. Don't tell us a bunch of ****.
Comment
-
Zero Hedge is reporting 9 deaths: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitic...gests-outbreakOriginally posted by Shiloh View Post
"Update (1010ET): Talk about a spike in deaths: Iran is now reporting 9 deaths after shocking the world by revealing that two Chinese nationals infected with the virus had died in the city of Qoms earlier this week."
Comment
-
hat tip Shiloh
Friday, 21 Feb 2020 01:42
Exclusive: 11 Coronavirus deaths in Iran
Based on the reports that Iran International has received, so far, eight coronavirus patients have died in Qom city’s Kamkar-Arabnia hospital with two hospital personnel in intensive care, and one woman passed away from coronavirus in Qom’s Imam Reza hospital.
According to these reports, Qom’s Beheshti hospital with 2100 personnel has distributed 200 L95 masks among them.
The sources told Iran International that several cases of coronavirus have been spotted in Mashhad city and two patients have died of the virus in the northern provinces of Iran. Iranian officials have not commented on these cases.
The chief of medicine in Kamkar-Arabnia hospital in Qom has announced that until further notice, only viral infection specialists are allowed in the hospital’s clinic.
Previously, the spokesperson for the Ministry of Health had confirmed two deaths in Qom city.
In Babol city, two patients suspected of coronavirus have been quarantined.
Comment
-
"@HeshmatAlavi Replying to @HeshmatAlavi and @BaxtiyarGoran
#UPDATE
#Iran #COVID19
Two coronavirus deaths reported in Rasht, northern Iran
-Javid Gholamzadeh & Dr. Reza Kuchakinia
One death also reported in Ilan, western Iran
Regime authorities are forbidding hospital staff & family members from talking to the media."
-
-
curiosity wrote:
> These are pieces of info that just do not make sense to me - please clarify if you have answers.
> 1.China reports significant decreases in numbers - significantly Shanghai had zero reported
> cases yesterday.
> On the cruise ship, cases increased quickly. How is this NOT happening (being detected)
> in the multi-unit dwellings?
in China ? Better surveillance
> Other countries actively looking for disease and finding cases - China is not actively looking
> for disease?
more active than others. Since Jan. They had many cases ootside Wuhan at first, but it went down
probably due to drastic measures, wearing masks, controls, careful people
Most countries only become careful when there are cases in that country.
> South Korea, Japan, even Iran reporting many discovered cases in general population with
> ongoing, rapid transmission
... and Iran.
introduced originally from Wuhan , undetected for a while
> These discoveries seem to be after identification of a severe case first. Do these events
> increase the validity of the US CDC that outbreaks in US (or anywhere) may occur at anytime?
> If yes, ARE they overreacting?
they think they are just only responsable for USA.
> Tedros keeps insisting the virus can be contained.
> What evidence exists that makes this a possibility? The decreasing China numbers?
> If yes, refer to one above - how could they contain if not actively seeking out cases?
they are. Just in Wuhan they are somehow overwhelmed
> gsgs discussion on Pandemic planning in China ... the question is not IF they planned for
> such an event, rather, what were the decision points that triggered complete shut down,
> economic upheaval and human rights infringement? Were there predetermined levels
> of illness/deaths that auto prompted the response? Retrospective to H1N12009 - would
> China have enacted the same response?
they were quick in their response. Usually there are consultations, parliament, discussions ...
So I assume the "triggering" was specified by some criteria in their plan which was
discussed and established earlier.
The plan may not have yet existed in that form in 2009 and 2009 started elsewhere.
So quarantining Chinese cities (which ?) made no sense.
> At what point do the leaders say: This is a virus we all have to reckon with - get ready?
> Will active surveillance for the virus help us prevent Wuhan events? Time will tell.
> Poorer countries will not fare well.
I hope they will be talking about their plan, their successful measures in academic papers.
So others can benefit from it too. The whole world is at risk with such outbreaks,
no matter where it starts.
> The market/economy discussions are all about COVID19. Obviously, the impact from China
> shutdown is great. At some point an economic disaster will cause more deaths than COVID19
> outbreaks. China has to gauge that right now - and I think decreasing their numbers is their way
> of trying to reinstate the economy, get back to work, and deal with the medical fallout -
> which ultimately is less deadly than starvation and infrastructure collapse.
> The livelihood AND health of millions - billions - are at stake.
I don't think the damage from starvation, interruption of daily life, infrastructure etc.
is larger than the direct damage from disease and economic losses. Maybe 50% of that ?!
Compare with Sichuan earthquake or such.
> I am inclined to think our entire world will be infected eventually - and that the actions
> China made were significant in allowing us all to prepare for this eventuality.
this may happen, but I think it's currently more likely that they will contain it
> I dont know that other countries, including my own, would do the same. China's actions
> are honorable.
there will be great pressure from WHO and the public to do so.
And it should be less difficult than in China when other countries start early with the measures.
I compare other countries with China ex Wuhan.I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgTComment
-
[how to avoid the empty lines in posts here ?]
as for masks - I had found one study that found a reduction of 87% for SARS with masks.
Surgical or NP95 didn't matter much. The reduction was smaller for flu or ili
I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgTComment
-
JJackson, I made this picture : http://magictour.free.fr/finan3.PNG
maybe I can add DowJones, Yuan/$, airline-index, later.
I'm not sure yet whether the BDI reacted to Wuhan or is just following oil-prices
(somehow) or their common reasons.
The 2008 decline had nothing to do with epidemics. Was there a market reaction in 2009 ?
I forgot. I do remember that Novavax Biocryst etc. went up a lot when the pandemic became clearI'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgTComment
-
The BDI does not include oil, it measures dry bulk goods like coal, grain, cement, metal ores etc. True the 2008 financial crash was not due to disease but it caused a economic down turn causing a crash in the price charged per unit for dry goods transport from $11,000 to 1,000 in a few months. Stock prices are based on market sentiment and speculation but the BDI measures real time demand for bulk goods movement. China produces most of the worlds manufactured goods and is the destination for much of the long distance bulk materials transport, if they shut down factories then the BDI will crash as it is very sensitive to fairly small changes for the reasons I explain in https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/...ndemic-and-bdi
The Wikipedia page has a graph showing the BDI over the 2009 crash and explains how it is calculated in greater detail. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baltic_Dry_Index
The Baltic Exchange will have the broken down route data - S America & Australia to China for iron ore & coal being the best indicators - but you have to pay to access it.
If I was looking at stocks I would expect things like Airbnb and Uber to take a hit and food home delivery companies to do well.
The NYSE composite fell from 9,400 at the end of May 2008 to 4,300 by the beginning of March 2009.
-
Comment