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Discussion thread II - Covid-19 (new coronavirus)

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  • If that medrxiv article Sharky referenced is correct, a global pandemic is certain.
    The 'early, strong control measure' that are mentioned as necessary to limit the spread of the virus seem difficult to envision without martial law.


    • Hi everyone, this is the first comment I've made in a few years here. Honored to still be considered a senior moderator. Now I work in the biosurveillance field ironically. Anyway, I wrote this article on the virus sequence a few days ago. Thought it might be interesting to others.


      • Emily
        Emily commented
        Editing a comment
        Thank you for the article, Sharpe!

      • JJackson
        JJackson commented
        Editing a comment
        Welcome back and thanks for the link there was some interesting information I had not seen elsewhere. I note the date and I think the snakes have proved a red herring. If you have not read it you my find this interesting as it is very much in the same vein. Dr. Gallaher's take
        [Edit] An afterthought - based on your link - you are unlikely to learn anything from the first half but his extensive knowledge of the protein structures and potential candidate off-label drug interaction are what I had in mind.
        Last edited by JJackson; February 13th, 2020, 03:53 PM.

    • Originally posted by gsgs View Post
      This site posted a Total number og 116.000 and 2700 desths saying that they were still working on the number ( to include all China ex Hubei to the new definition). Bit now it is back to the new official numbers excluding the new numbers outside of Hubei.


      • If this is true, spread within China is much more extensive outside of Hubei


        • Source:

          North Korea executes top official for leaving coronavirus quarantine to go to baths
          Faye BrownThursday 13 Feb 2020 12:35 pm

          A North Korean official was shot dead for going to a public bath while he was meant to be in quarantine for coronavirus, it has been reported. The trade official was arrested and immediately executed after risking the spread of the deadly disease, according to South Korean media reports. Sources said the official had been placed in isolation after travelling to China with the country’s leader Kim Jong-un...


          • California lab says it discovered coronavirus vaccine in 3 hours
            [Fox Business]
            Evie Fordham
            Fox BusinessFebruary 13, 2020

            An American biotech company says it created a coronavirus vaccine three hours after getting access to the virus' genetic sequence on Jan. 9, and now scientists are racing to get the vaccine on the market in record time.

            Inovio Pharmaceuticals is based in Pennsylvania, but scientists in its laboratory in San Diego made the discovery.


            "We have an algorithm which we designed, and we put the DNA sequence into our algorithm and came up with the vaccine in that short amount of time," Inovio's research and development director Dr. Trevor Smith told KVUE...

            Read more:


            • Shiloh
              Shiloh commented
              Editing a comment
              Hmmm...I would think it still needs to be tested...and efficiency determined.

          • move this or delete it if it's better that way. years ago, folks got their long term h5n1 pandemic preps at the sites below. there are likely other sites now, too. the fema nrf is a good read, especially the cikr stuff.



            • Originally posted by Sharpe View Post
              Hi everyone, this is the first comment I've made in a few years here. Honored to still be considered a senior moderator. Now I work in the biosurveillance field ironically. Anyway, I wrote this article on the virus sequence a few days ago. Thought it might be interesting to others.
              Hi Sharpe!

              Very interesting! And thanks!

              Have you thought about posting your paper at ? I do not know the criteria to submit. It is a preprint, non-peer reviewed server but many esteemed people are submitting because we have an emerging disease situation and not a lotta time for reviewers.

              Thank you for staying in contact over the years.


              • Are we prepared? Protecting the US from global pandemics
                Statement before the Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs
                Health Care
                February 12, 2020

                The epidemic spread of coronavirus in China — along with community transmission in Singapore, Hong Kong, and Japan — sharply increase the chance that we endure pandemic spread. Worse still, the novel coronavirus may become endemic. It could take a new position as a more sinister member of the seasonal pathogens that circulate each year and infect humans.

                The next month is critical. We must prepare for the prospect that the virus evaded our border protections and was already introduced into the U.S. in late December or early January — when it first appears to have become epidemic in China’s Hubei province. Those index cases could have seeded community spread, and eventually, outbreaks could emerge in America. We have the capacity to contain small outbreaks. But we need to be vigilant and ready...

                Read more:


                • Originally posted by c3jmp View Post
                  move this or delete it if it's better that way. years ago, folks got their long term h5n1 pandemic preps at the sites below. there are likely other sites now, too. the fema nrf is a good read, especially the cikr stuff.

                  Very helpful.
                  Even if we are lucky, it makes sense to lay in some reserves beforehand.
                  At worst, these can be donated to a foodbank if the crisis is resolved shortly.


                • one of the folks on the fluboards was tied into the .gov planning for bad things. we (fluboard folk) reviewed the draft NRF before it was finalized. having long term preps on hand is a very handy thing - pandemic is one among a variety of things that can take us to roughly the same place. prep for one, prep for all. i don't think 'prepper' was a word then, certainly not one most folks were familiar with.


                  • Worth a read


                    Experts: Several clear early warning factors for new coronary pneumonia have been identified
                    Low oxygenation index for over twelve hours, watch out!
                    2020-02-14 07:00 Source: Southern Network Li Xiuting Zhu Xiaofeng

                    Since the outbreak, Li Yueping, director of the ICU of the Infectious Diseases Center of the Eighth People's Hospital of Guangzhou City, has been at the forefront of fighting the epidemic. She is responsible for the isolation of the first district, which is the place where the eighth hospital of Guangzhou city treats severe and critically ill patients. As of February 12, a total of 13 critically ill patients and more than 20 critically ill patients have been treated. At the same time, she is also carrying out non-stop scientific research on the treatment of new coronary pneumonia.

                    Recently, she accepted an exclusive interview with Nanfang Daily to introduce the treatment of patients with severe coronary disease and critically ill patients with new coronary pneumonia, and responded to public concerns about antiviral drugs for new coronary pneumonia.

                    Key words Severe warning

                    Cytokine storm is most likely induced by hypoxia

                    Nanfang Daily: Why do some patients get worse and some patients get better?

                    Li Yueping: We are conducting research on early and critical illness warning factors and found several very clear early warning factors, namely lymphocyte decline, lactate dehydrogenase increase, D2 polymer increase, continuous oxygenation index decrease, Viremia and so on.

                    In addition, we found that exacerbated patients had an oxygenation index of only 100-150 mmhg (normal value 400-500 mmhg) for more than 12 hours. Such patients may induce cytokine storms due to hypoxia.

                    Many people have said that cytokine storms are sudden, but according to our daily observations from critical medical experts, cytokine storms are not sudden. It is likely to be induced by hypoxia. The same thing is that many people seem to have mild symptoms, shortness of breath, and respiratory distress are not obvious, but in fact, the oxygenation index has decreased significantly, and CT indicates multiple lung fields.

                    So oxygen therapy is very important in the treatment of new coronary pneumonia. Whether it is oxygen inhalation, high-flow oxygen therapy, non-invasive ventilation, or tracheal intubation, it is necessary to ensure that the patient's oxygen is sufficient. If a patient's oxygen supply can be guaranteed in the early stage, his chance of sudden development of severe illness will be a little smaller. At present, the Eighth People's Hospital of Guangzhou City has a pressurized central oxygen supply and the protection is adequate.

                    Key words intensive treatment

                    Maintain organ function, help patients "pass"

                    Nanfang Daily: Which antiviral drugs are currently effective?

                    粤 Li Yueping: Kelizhi, Abidol, Chloroquine, Redecvir, these are the antiviral drugs that many people have high hopes for. We started this study on January 28. We set strict entry criteria, exclusion criteria, and observation indicators, as well as blank control groups to observe the efficacy of Abidol and Kelizhi. But so far, neither drug has had very encouraging results.

                    We started the experimental research on chloroquine on February 8. In cooperation with the Zhongshan Fifth Hospital of Zhuhai, we launched a multi-center experimental study on chloroquine against viruses. Cao Bin of Beijing is also conducting a multi-center experiment on Radixivir to observe the antiviral effect. To date, these antivirals have not shown efficacy. From the cell level, to the tissue level, and then to the human level, the effect may be far worse.

                    Nanfang Daily: Is it safe to find effective antiviral drugs?

                    粤 Li Yueping: Antiviral effects are one thing, but severe cases are another. Even with antiviral drugs, can it prevent the disease from progressing to severe cases? Not necessarily, this is related to everyone's immune status and subsequent cytokine storms. Virus testing has turned negative for several of our patients, but his condition has worsened. Even if there are antiviral drugs, they may not be able to completely treat all the critically ill patients.

                    Therefore, in the treatment of new coronary pneumonia, critical medicine is very important, that is, to maintain the function of each organ of the patient, to slowly survive the duration of the virus, including the support of the ventilator to the lung, ECMO Support for cardiopulmonary function.

                    This time with new coronary pneumonia, the virus has a long duration, lung failure has a long time, and it takes a long time to support it. We now have 3 patients on ECMO. Of the 8 patients who were transferred to the Institute, there were also 3 of them. It has been 10 days. No patient has been successfully taken offline yet. Now we are in a quarantine area and we have gathered the three "ace soldiers" of infection, severe illness and breathing, hoping to work together to overcome this disease.

                    Keywords Outbreak control

                    Wash your hands frequently while wearing a mask

                    Nanfang Daily: Do you think this disease is terrible in the face of severe patients every day?

                    Li Yueping: Not so scary. I have also experienced SARS. Compared with SARS, the incidence of new coronary pneumonia is generally mild and the mortality rate is not so high. If it is not Hubei, in other provinces and cities with sufficient medical resources, the mortality rate may be less than 1% Compared with the SARS case fatality rate of 10% and the avian influenza case fatality rate of about 30%, it is relatively low.

                    I saw so many patients, and I judged it as a "castrated version" of SARS and "enhanced version" of the flu, which is a bit worse than the flu, and the case fatality rate is higher than the flu. Compared with SARS, its course will be longer and more contagious, but the disease is obviously milder. For mild and common type, we do not need to be too panic, it is still a self-limiting disease.

                    Nanfang Daily: Many experts have mentioned that this virus is very cunning.

                    粤 Li Yueping: We often say that if the virus is fierce, it is not cunning, if it is cunning, it is not vicious. If the virus wants to survive, it cannot kill the host, so it can spread the virus to more places.

                    New crown pneumonia may be like the flu, and will live with people for many years. When the number of occult infections in the population increases and the general availability of antibodies increases, the disease will certainly be quiet. Now we have detected that some people have antibodies, but it is not a protective antibody, it is still difficult to say.

                    The vaccine goes from preparation and then to large-scale human application. It must take a while. I don't think the vaccine can be counted on yet. Or try to cure the patient first, cut off the transmission route, and protect the susceptible people.

                    Nanfang Daily: What are the difficulties in controlling the epidemic?

                    粤 Li Yueping: We control an infectious disease. One is to control the source of the infection, the other is to cut off the transmission route, and the other is to protect the susceptible people. This virus transmission path can be cut off, and susceptible people can be protected, but the difficulty in controlling it lies in controlling the source of infection, and the virus will take longer to spread.

                    如果 If the patient is in the incubation period, he may not have fever at all in the early stage, and his body temperature may not be detected. A dominant infection may be followed by 20 to 100 recessive infections.

                    As for the route of transmission, the new crown virus will be transmitted through contact, droplets, and possibly aerosol. Many people are afraid of aerosols now, but after all, aerosols need a medium. If there is wind, there is actually no big problem. Talking about toxicity without dosage is a "rogue", and the same is true for viruses, which do not have a certain amount and are not a problem.

                    Nowadays, it is advisable to wear masks and wash your hands extensively. No matter how you wash your hands before touching anything, and then wash your hands after touching, the two most important points are these. As long as the respiratory tract isolation and hand hygiene isolation are done, the chance of infection is very small.

                    Nanfang Daily reporter Li Xiuting Zhu Xiaofeng Correspondent Jia Weidong
                    Edit: Chen Yuchen


                    • the only reason i reference h5n1 vs others is the scale of prep for 3-4 waves at 65% cfr and no acquired immunity... on nrf stuff, pathogens aren't picky - the bad ones are equal opportunity destroyers.. if the cikr folks get nailed, we'll have other issues. the folks that dug through pandemic planning 15 years ago are good - it's the more recent folks i worry about...


                      • here is the whole old fluwiki forum with lots of "preppers" :
                        I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                        my current links: [url][/url] ILI-charts: [url][/url]


                        • Originally posted by Shiloh View Post
                          I'm still looking for articles on nCov and prisons, orphanages, rehab centers etc. So far as I can tell, there has been no coverage. Out of sight, out of mind?
                          On February 8, a new coronary pneumonia infection occurred in Wuhan Mental Health Center. The number of confirmed infections was 80. There were about 50 patients and 30 medical staff, including a deputy dean, and a number of department heads and head nurses. Previously, more than 30 medical staff were admitted to the hospital in Wuhan in early February, and more than 30 medical staff were quarantined. Nearly a sixth of the medical staff were unable to go to work. The remaining medical staff, whether from Orthopedics, obstetrics and gynecology, gastroenterology, or endocrinology. After emergency training, they were all transferred to respiratory doctors and filled in like "cannonballs" during combat. When the Sichuan medical team came to take over, the hospital was allowed to operate normally.
                          ďThe only security we have is our ability to adapt."