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ISID @ISID_org
“The prevention of further spread and the effective containment of #2019nCoV is our top priority,” says @SouthAfricanASP
“The people who attend the ICID are critical to the response to the #epidemic..."
Coronavirus: Peruvian died of this disease in the United States and his body was repatriated
A 72-year-old Peruvian woman died from coronavirus in the city of Los Angeles, in the United States, and his body was repatriated to our country, TV Peru reported.
The document issued by the California Department of Public Health indicates that the Peruvian citizen died at the Torrance Memorial Medical Center on January 17.
[snip]
According to the death certificate, the cause of his death is the deadly virus of Chinese origin that triggered pneumonia and other complications in his health.
hat tip to a friend of FluTrackers
Apparently someone who was screened for 2019-nCov tested negative and was dead already. Could this be the person from Peru?
"One patient was deceased at the time of notification; testing for this person was negative, and an alternative cause of death was established."
Well, it's been a little over an hour since the Hubei Provincial #s came out and I haven't seen them reported in Chinese. Hmm...wonder if they have stopped reporting provincial #s? If so, one would have to go to each provincial health department to get the daily stats. Hope this is not the case.
Looked like hubei new cases down, is that partially because of the change in the way they are reported? (From a post by Sharon?)
I doubt it, there have been so few asymptomatic cases tested the numbers are not big enough to be significant. I gave a more detail explanation in the thread started by Sharon.
We just don’t know’ if coronavirus came from a Chinese lab, national security adviser says
By Niels Lesniewski Posted February 11, 2020 at 8:00pm
Pushed to respond to speculation from a Republican senator, a top White House official said they do not know whether the coronavirus could have originated in a Chinese laboratory.
Asked during Atlantic Council event about comments by Arkansas Sen. Tom Cotton on the possibility that the virus started in a Chinese government lab, National Security Adviser Robert O'Brien said Tuesday that he had no information about any such theories.
"I've seen those reports, and Twitter and the Internet are alive with them. I don't have any information on that one way or the other, so we just don't know," O'Brien said. "I can't comment on that."
.."He's a smart guy when he comes to these issues, and he's a leader when it comes to national defense and national security issues," O'Brien said of Cotton, who is a member of the Intelligence and Armed Services Committees.
Chinese ambassador to the United States Cui Tiankai has criticized Cotton's suggestion, including in an interview Sunday with CBS News...
Cotton reiterated his concerns in a CNBC interview Tuesday morning.
"We do need to ask questions about the super laboratory that is in Wuhan," Cotton said. "There's too many unanswered questions and China has been too deceitful for us to just take the word of the Chinese Communist Party."
....
"We know where it originated. We don't know how it originated," O'Brien said. "We do not have American doctors on the ground. The WHO, I believe, has a new team in, but that team does not include American doctors."
... [link to www.rollcall.com (secure)]
"We do not have American doctors on the ground. The WHO, I believe, has a new team in, but that team does not include American doctors."
About that... American medical doctors aren't going to be the ones that answer the question of whether this escaped from a lab. You need molecular biologists. Also, this virus would not be a good choice for anyone to weaponize because it isn't all that lethal. Is it possible that they were doing research on it in a lab, or had acquired bats for research that infected young asymptomatic workers. Sure, but if it came from a lab it is almost surely an accident imo.
Last edited by blacknail; February 11, 2020, 09:41 PM.
Reason: which weather is whether?
On BBC Radio 4 this afternoon. Professor Neil Ferguson - director of the @MRC_Outbreak at @imperialcollege believes we are in the early stages of a global pandemic. He also thinks that the UK is picking up perhaps one in three cases of travellers who are carrying the Novel 2019 coronavirus.
"The only security we have is our ability to adapt."
'It’s a Moral Imperative:' Archivists Made a Directory of 5,000 Coronavirus Studies to Bypass Paywalls
The potentially illegal archive is a 'moral imperative,' said one organizer.
by Maddie Bender
Feb 3 2020, 10:34am
Security staff checks on the temperature of students entering a university, as public fear over China's Wuhan Coronavirus grows, on February 3, 2020 in Manila, Philippines. Image: Ezra Acayan/Getty Images
A group of online archivists have created an open-access directory of over 5,000 scientific studies about coronaviruses that anyone can browse and download without encountering a paywall. The directory is hosted on The-Eye, a massive online archiving project run by a Reddit user named "-Archivist."...
Officials rumored that mass corpses were burned in Wuhan, air monitoring was not true
issuing time: 12/02/2020-13:15
Author:
Gu Li
In response to media reports using the website Windy data, “Wuhan suspected that a large number of Wuhan pneumonia patients' bodies were burned, resulting in an alarming concentration of sulfur dioxide in the air”. The Central News Agency quoted a report today, saying that outsiders believe that the current published diagnosis data cannot reflect the true situation, because many patients have died before they can be diagnosed with Wuhan pneumonia (coronavirus disease in 2019).
According to a report by the Central News Agency today, it is reported that Wuhan has burned a large number of corpses, and China claims that the air monitoring data are false. The news pointed out that a media report said that “the suspected incineration of a large number of Wuhan pneumonia patients’ bodies in Wuhan caused an alarming concentration of sulfur dioxide in the air. ”The relevant person in charge of the China National Environmental Monitoring Station came out today to“ remove rumors ”, stating that the data used by foreign media differed from actual monitoring data by 200 Times.
The report said that many media reports recently that data from the Czech weather service website "Windy" shows that Wuhan is full of sulfur dioxide (SO2) with a concentration of more than 80 micrograms per cubic meter in the city. At 7 o'clock in the evening on the 8th, An even more alarming concentration of 1700 micrograms per cubic meter appeared in other cities in Hubei Province. Some netizens traced the location where the sulfur dioxide was the most concentrated, and found that it was quite close to the local cemetery and lime sand brick factory. It was suspected that it was related to the authorities' treatment of the dead patient's body, and it was estimated that 14,000 remains would be cremated to release such a large amount of sulfur dioxide.
According to the comprehensive Beijing News and China News.com, the relevant person in charge of China National Environmental Monitoring Station stated on the 12th that relevant experts from China National Environmental Monitoring Station, the Satellite Environment Application Center of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, and the Chinese Academy of Sciences checked the relevant information. "After careful comparison and verification, The increase of SO2 concentration in Wuhan released by the Windy website is seriously distorted, and its SO2 concentration data is not credible. According to the data at 0 and 1 on the 9th, Windy website pointed out that the concentration of sulfur dioxide in Wuhan "contaminated area" reached per cubic meter. Above 1500 micrograms, the highest concentration is even more than 1700 micrograms; but according to Chinese air monitoring stations, the carbon dioxide concentration before and after this period fluctuates only between 4 and 8 micrograms per cubic meter, and the difference between the two concentrations is as much as 200 times.
According to the person in charge, not only Wuhan, but also the ground surface sulfur dioxide concentrations published elsewhere on Windy's website have great deviations from local monitoring results. Taking the data from Beijing Dongsi Station on the 11th as an example, the hourly deviation between the two can reach 4 to 60 times, and the daily deviation can reach 15 times, which is significantly higher than the "actual concentration".
According to the Central News Agency, several media reported that data from the Czech weather service website "Windy" shows that Wuhan is full of sulfur dioxide (SO2). The picture shows the results of netizens sharing Chinese SO2 data on the Windy community website on the 10th. (Picture taken from community.windy.com, Windy's community webpage)
However, Chinese officials have "clarified" the report from overseas media, which also reflects the serious concern of the epidemic in Wuhan. It is reported that the outside world believes that the current published diagnosis data cannot reflect the true situation, because many patients have died before they can be diagnosed with Wuhan pneumonia (coronavirus disease in 2019).
According to an article published by Tencent on the Internet, a Hubei funeral worker stated in early February that the unit where he worked had been changed to a 24-hour stand-by in order to dispose of the remains in a timely manner. According to him, after the outbreak, the unit stipulated that everything should be simplified. In order to avoid crowds and no farewell ceremony before cremation, all the remains need to be handled as soon as possible regardless of whether pneumonia is diagnosed. Some family members were unable to accept the requirement of immediate cremation, refused to sign the cremation consent, and some were out of control.
"Safety and security don't just happen, they are the result of collective consensus and public investment. We owe our children, the most vulnerable citizens in our society, a life free of violence and fear." -Nelson Mandela
"the carbon dioxide concentration before and after this period fluctuates only between 4 and 8 micrograms per cubic meter,"
I assume that is a typo and should read SO2 not CO2.
At least 500 Wuhan medical staff infected with coronavirus
Medical sources in the city confirm rate of infection, but say they have been told not to release the full picture to the public
So far three deaths among medical workers have been confirmed, including that of Li Wenliang, but higher rate of infection risks hampering fight to curb disease
SCMP
Josephine Ma,
William Zheng,
Zhuang Pinghui in Beijing
Published: 9:49pm, 11 Feb, 2020
...
Medical sources in the city confirm rate of infection, but say they have been told not to release the full picture to the public.
"Safety and security don't just happen, they are the result of collective consensus and public investment. We owe our children, the most vulnerable citizens in our society, a life free of violence and fear." -Nelson Mandela
DATE February 11, 2020
...
GAZETTE: But what is most important for the public to know about this?
LIPSITCH: There’s likely to be a period of widespread transmission in the U.S., and I hope we will avert the kind of chaos that some other places are seeing. That’s likely if we continue to be prepared, but I think it’s going to be a new virus that we have to deal with. That won’t be because the United States government has failed to contain it, it will mean that this is an uncontainable virus. If we’re dealing with it, it’s because everybody’s going to be dealing with it. I think that’s a likely scenario.
...
Harvard’s Marc Lipsitch said evidence indicates that the international cordon keeping coronavirus cases bottled up in China is a leaky one, and it’s likely that the relative handful of global cases reported so far are undercounted. If true, that will lead to widespread illness internationally, including in the U.S.
"Safety and security don't just happen, they are the result of collective consensus and public investment. We owe our children, the most vulnerable citizens in our society, a life free of violence and fear." -Nelson Mandela
The Novel Coronavirus, 2019-nCoV, is Highly Contagious and More Infectious Than Initially Estimated
The novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) is a recently emerged human pathogen that has spread widely since January 2020. Initially, the basic reproductive number, R0, was estimated to be 2.2 to 2.7. Here we provide a new estimate of this quantity. We collected extensive individual case reports and estimated key epidemiology parameters, including the incubation period. Integrating these estimates and high-resolution real-time human travel and infection data with mathematical models, we estimated that the number of infected individuals during early epidemic double every 2.4 days, and the R0 value is likely to be between 4.7 and 6.6. We further show that quarantine and contact tracing of symptomatic individuals alone may not be effective and early, strong control measures are needed to stop transmission of the virus.
The novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) is a recently emerged human pathogen that has spread widely since January 2020. Initially, the basic reproductive number, R , was estimated to be 2.2 to 2.7. Here we provide a new estimate of this quantity. We collected extensive individual case reports and estimated key epidemiology parameters, including the incubation period. Integrating these estimates and high-resolution real-time human travel and infection data with mathematical models, we estimated that the number of infected individuals during early epidemic double every 2.4 days, and the R value is likely to be between 4.7 and 6.6. We further show that quarantine and contact tracing of symptomatic individuals alone may not be effective and early, strong control measures are needed to stop transmission of the virus.
One-sentence summary By collecting and analyzing spatiotemporal data, we estimated the transmission potential for 2019-nCoV.
### Competing Interest Statement
The authors have declared no competing interest.
### Funding Statement
SS and RK would like to acknowledge funding from DARPA (HR0011938513). CX acknowledges the support from the Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) Program at Los Alamos National Laboratory. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.
### Author Declarations
All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript.
Yes
All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.
Yes
I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).
Yes
I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.
Yes
All data is available in the main text or the supplementary materials.
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