Very interesting article on the figures coming from Deputy Director-General of Medical Administration Bureau of National Health and Family Planning Commission of the PRC, Jiao Yahui
https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3873016
"...due to the lack of medical resources, the mortality rate in Wuhan has reached 4.9 percent. Meanwhile, the death rate for China as a whole is said to have remained at a steady 2.1 percent.
However, Jiao quickly contradicted her own statement about the mortality rate when she said the number of confirmed cases of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in Wuhan has exceeded 20,000 and there had been 425 deaths, with 414 of the dead concentrated in Hubei Province, accounting for 97 percent of the total, reported the Broadcasting Corporation of China. She then pointed out this is a mortality rate of 2.1 percent, inadvertently revealing the number of deaths must have been significantly underestimated.
Again, contradicting the numbers and the official government dictated 2.1 percent mortality rate, she said the death rate in Hubei Province is 3.1 percent. She then added that Wuhan had the highest mortality rate in the province at 4.9 percent, and claimed the rate of death in the rest of the province had dropped by 0.16 percent.".....
"As early as January, netizens started to notice that government death tolls have routinely maintained an exact percentile for days on end. Many noticed that in the early days of reporting, the government put the death rate at 3.1 percent.
Jan. 22: 17 deaths / 542 infections = 3.1 percent
Jan. 23: 26 deaths / 830 infections = 3.1 percent
Jan. 24: 41 deaths / 1,287 infections = 3.1 percent
By the end of the month, the government apparently decided to set the new official mortality rate at 2.1 percent. As can be seen in the image below, the mortality rate was kept at a precise 2.1 percent, regardless of the numbers from Jan. 30 to Feb.
If this is the Government "spin" I can only conclude that 2.1 is the "optimistic" figure that is generated to ensure - "She claimed there are many cases in other provinces, but the mortality rate is quite low. She said the government is still confident the vast majority of these cases are minor, so there is no need to panic"
I have checked some of the figures quoted - am having trouble finding our actual numbers - someone probably has these easily to hand - but the two I have from a comparison graph - do tally with the 3.1%. Jan 22 (17 deaths per 542 confirmed) Jan 23 (26 deaths per 830).
The steady 2.1% quoted is suspicious even in the fact that the word "steady" is used.
The interview quoted was probably this one conducted in mandarin and quoted here;
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/04/coronavirus-latest-updates-china-hubei.html
"7:20 pm: Fatality rate ‘should gradually decline’ - Chinese health officials
“I’m confident that it won’t require that long of a time period before the effects [of our efforts] will be evident, and Wuhan’s case-fatality rate should gradually decline,” Jiao Yahui, deputy director of the medical affairs and hospital administration of the National Health Commission, said Tuesday at a daily press conference in Mandarin, according to a CNBC translation.
Jiao pointed out that 74% of coronavirus deaths, or 313, are in the city of Wuhan, where there is a case-fatality rate of 4.9%. That’s primarily due to lack of hospital beds in the early days of the virus’ spread, she said. At that time, she said there were only three designated hospitals with 110 beds for the critically ill... "...snip
I have not found a full translated script and will continue to search... The interview was conducted February 3rd - so is almost old news now...
https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3873016
"...due to the lack of medical resources, the mortality rate in Wuhan has reached 4.9 percent. Meanwhile, the death rate for China as a whole is said to have remained at a steady 2.1 percent.
However, Jiao quickly contradicted her own statement about the mortality rate when she said the number of confirmed cases of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in Wuhan has exceeded 20,000 and there had been 425 deaths, with 414 of the dead concentrated in Hubei Province, accounting for 97 percent of the total, reported the Broadcasting Corporation of China. She then pointed out this is a mortality rate of 2.1 percent, inadvertently revealing the number of deaths must have been significantly underestimated.
Again, contradicting the numbers and the official government dictated 2.1 percent mortality rate, she said the death rate in Hubei Province is 3.1 percent. She then added that Wuhan had the highest mortality rate in the province at 4.9 percent, and claimed the rate of death in the rest of the province had dropped by 0.16 percent.".....
"As early as January, netizens started to notice that government death tolls have routinely maintained an exact percentile for days on end. Many noticed that in the early days of reporting, the government put the death rate at 3.1 percent.
Jan. 22: 17 deaths / 542 infections = 3.1 percent
Jan. 23: 26 deaths / 830 infections = 3.1 percent
Jan. 24: 41 deaths / 1,287 infections = 3.1 percent
By the end of the month, the government apparently decided to set the new official mortality rate at 2.1 percent. As can be seen in the image below, the mortality rate was kept at a precise 2.1 percent, regardless of the numbers from Jan. 30 to Feb.
If this is the Government "spin" I can only conclude that 2.1 is the "optimistic" figure that is generated to ensure - "She claimed there are many cases in other provinces, but the mortality rate is quite low. She said the government is still confident the vast majority of these cases are minor, so there is no need to panic"
I have checked some of the figures quoted - am having trouble finding our actual numbers - someone probably has these easily to hand - but the two I have from a comparison graph - do tally with the 3.1%. Jan 22 (17 deaths per 542 confirmed) Jan 23 (26 deaths per 830).
The steady 2.1% quoted is suspicious even in the fact that the word "steady" is used.
The interview quoted was probably this one conducted in mandarin and quoted here;
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/04/coronavirus-latest-updates-china-hubei.html
"7:20 pm: Fatality rate ‘should gradually decline’ - Chinese health officials
“I’m confident that it won’t require that long of a time period before the effects [of our efforts] will be evident, and Wuhan’s case-fatality rate should gradually decline,” Jiao Yahui, deputy director of the medical affairs and hospital administration of the National Health Commission, said Tuesday at a daily press conference in Mandarin, according to a CNBC translation.
Jiao pointed out that 74% of coronavirus deaths, or 313, are in the city of Wuhan, where there is a case-fatality rate of 4.9%. That’s primarily due to lack of hospital beds in the early days of the virus’ spread, she said. At that time, she said there were only three designated hospitals with 110 beds for the critically ill... "...snip
I have not found a full translated script and will continue to search... The interview was conducted February 3rd - so is almost old news now...
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