Discussion - Estimating the CFR for 2019-nCoV

[Laidback Al]

During the bird flu scare between 2005 – 2009 we discussed many ways about preparing for a pandemic. A real concern for each and everyone of us is ourselves and our family. At this stage, it is a still a localized epidemic in China. As of yesterday, all of the cases reported from countries other than China were imported from China directly. There have not yet been any cases of human to human transmission reported in these foreign countries.

I personally do not make prep decisions based on the statistics from other countries. At this time I am now reviewing my prep stockpile and being ready to shelter-in-place in the event that I start seeing human-to-human transmission in my own country.

[WildernessRetreat]

Your advice to watch the rate of death as compared got the number of new infections is a flawed way of doing math. It is valuable info but until we know the average days it takes from contraction to death, that number is meaningless or if not completely meaningless... still not an accurate predictor. The most accurate predictor is how many of the original cluster of 15 has died. Do you have a source that I might find these numbers? Doesn't it bother you that they are not being made public? 10,000,000 could be infected in a week but if it takes 3 weeks on average before a person dies from the virus, then it follows that the number we need is how many are dead after three weeks if the number of confirmed cases was only one million three weeks ago. Time to go to work on the farm. Thanks for your info and i Hope to hear back from you.

[WildernessRetreat]

It still doesn't make sense for such an easy statistic not to be revealed. It would seem to be the most valuable number for folks to use to try to decide whether to start home schooling their kids. It's criminal in my mind for these government agencies to withhold this information. You know they have it and it's not like that can't afford the ink. How many of the original cluster of 15 have died and what days did they die? So simple and requiring next to zero to print it and yet being kept a secret IMHO. These government agencies as you say "don't have enough information" but you know darn well they have the information I seek and others should be seeking too.

[Laidback Al]

The number is not being concealed to protect us from the truth. These governmental health agencies don’t have enough information about the overall dimensions of this epidemic. There are currently at least 17 reported deaths from China, among hundreds of infected individuals. At this stage, these underfunded health agencies are doing their best to contain the spread of this outbreak and then secondarily try to derive the epidemiological statistics. The most you can do now is continue to watch and see if the number of deaths relative to the number of new infections is rising at a faster rate.

[WildernessRetreat]

Actually i should have worded it: 1 dead after 10days, 6 dead after 20 days of original cluster discovered.

[WildernessRetreat]

You're right but I'm still frustrated that no real stories are being submitted on the internet about the original 15. How many died so far? It would seem to me that if 1 died 10 days after they were diagnosed and 6 died 10 days after that, it would be reasonable to calculate that ever ten days the death toll jumps six fold. If this rate continues by April 30 2020 over 2 billion people will be dead from the virus. The fact that the number is being concealed is very disturbing.

[Laidback Al]

In general, it is worth remember that during the initial outbreak of MERS-CoV, many of the deaths were cases associated multiple chronic conditions which may have factored into their deaths. The actual CFR at this stage is not really important. What we need to watch for is that perfectly health individuals in the a prime of their life begin to die at an alarming rate.

[WildernessRetreat]

Thanks Al and Ronan,
38% on face value seems be the more plausible. I assumed that if 6 of the original 15 died already it would equate to 40% however the people that know the answer to this seem reluctant to tell us...probably for fear of mass panic. The fact that the CDC is not revealing this number scares the bejesus out of me.

[Laidback Al]

Wilderness Retreat, you are correct that current estimates for the Case Fatality Ratio (CFR) will not mirror the final CFR after this outbreak is over. The actual CFR for the 2019-nCoV will only be determined once all of the cases are reviewed and the all of the deaths have been tabulated.

However, at this stage, early in the epidemic, people want information, even if it is wildly inaccurate. People feel more in control of their situation if they have some perspective on what might be ahead.

[Ronan Kelly]

Even with such a small number any calculations are moot. Up to yesterday there were 17 deaths from an estimated 4,000 cases. That would put the low end cfr at .4%. Looking at the resolved cases, data is somewhat less available. 30 cases have been listed as cured and 18 fatal. Thus the cfr of resolved confirmed cases is 38%. The reality is somewhere between those extremes, but may also be even lower than .4% if the cases estimate gets remodeled. In other words - it's too early to call.

[WildernessRetreat]

It's stupid to say Wuhan Coronavirus has just a 2% death rate. Most articles I read on the internet state something like this. 300 confirmed cases 6 deaths equals 2% death rate. This is ridiculous because a lot of the 400 just caught the virus and it might be two to three weeks before they die. Does anyone know how many of the original cluster of 15 discovered in Wuhan on Dec 31 2019 have died? I can't find that info on the internet. It would seem to me that the death rate should be calculated based on how many of the original 15 are now dead. This would be a whole lot more accurate that dividing the number of known fatalities from the disease by how many now have it. We need to know how long it takes for the patient to die after contracting the disease also to make half way accurate death rate assumptions. Does anyone know how many of the original 15 have died? Please include a link.