Discussion Thread I - 2019-nCov (new coronavirus)

[Emily]

the problem with these lab-escape theories is -as before- the virology, the mutation count.
They would not discuss this, as it usually didn't support the claim.
Why should the lab use a virus that is currently circulating in bats ? Just so they have an argument
of natural release if it escapes ? But then, if it occurs in Nature why should the risk from a lab-escape
be greater ? Unless it hadn't been manipulated .. but they would see that by comparing it to the
wild strains.
As I understood they did not find a good match of this virus yet in bats, hopefully they will find some.
The best match is from bats in 2018 with 3500 mutations, then the SARS virus from 2003 with 5900 mutations

To see if it can infect humans.

https://www.nature.com/articles/nm.3985

"While public health measures silenced the SARS-CoV outbreak2, recent metagenomics studies have identified sequences of closely related SARS-like viruses circulating in Chinese bat populations that may pose a future threat4,5. However, sequence data alone provides minimal insights to identify and prepare for future pre-pandemic viruses. Therefore, to examine emergence potential of circulating CoVs, we built a chimeric virus that encodes a novel, zoonotic spike protein in the context of a viable CoV backbone"

[hawkeye]

Seeing rumors/posts that people from Wuhan are being denied social services (which I assume means all services) within other cities. Also that they are being told to leave and to go back to Wuhan by other citizens and the authorities.

[gsgs]

list of cases :

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1itaohdPiAeniCXNlntNztZ_oRvjh0HsGuJXUJWET008/edit#gid=0

mean age of infection was 47 years
37% of cases were female

This database is being updated regularly and epidemiological information
about Wuhan will be included over the coming days.

Moritz Kraemer , University of Oxford

http://virological.org/t/epidemiological-data-from-the-ncov-2019-outbreak-early-descriptions-from-publicly-available-data/337/2

[gsgs]

the problem with these lab-escape theories is -as before- the virology, the mutation count.
They would not discuss this, as it usually didn't support the claim.
Why should the lab use a virus that is currently circulating in bats ? Just so they have an argument
of natural release if it escapes ? But then, if it occurs in Nature why should the risk from a lab-escape
be greater ? Unless it hadn't been manipulated .. but they would see that by comparing it to the
wild strains.
As I understood they did not find a good match of this virus yet in bats, hopefully they will find some.
The best match is from bats in 2018 with 3500 mutations, then the SARS virus from 2003 with 5900 mutations

[alert]

Because the other options suck. The influenza antivirals won't work on this. The experimental antivirals used to treat viral hemorrhagic fevers such as Ebola and Marburg are virus specific. And ribavirin, which was widely used in 2003 to treat SARS patients did more harm than good and often left patients permanently disabled due to the side effects. Hong Kong reported that many of the more severe cases of SARS that survived had permanent bone damage from the ribavirin.

Apparently, China still thinks they can contain this virus. I can't imagine how. But if they succeed, I can't help but imagine that there's going to be a lot of blowback against the US and Mexico for not trying to contain 2009 H1N1.

[Vibrant62]

I remember this being mentioned in a couple of other reports. I would expect they would be trying everything at this stage... The question is, is it working?

[hawkeye]

Anything backing this treatment? Is this out of desperation?

China coronavirus: Beijing confirms use of anti-HIV drugs at some hospitals Three Beijing hospitals have started treating patients with the anti-HIV drugs Lopinavir and Ritonavir

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3047667/china-coronavirus-beijing-confirms-use-anti-hiv-drugs-some

[BostonRN]

CNN article regarding WHO’s indecision to declare global health emergency.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/25/opinions/who-should-sound-alarm-on-coronavirus-bociurkiw/index.html

[gsgs]

It would be consistent with the hospital videos we've seen, showing wall to wall patients. Just doing the paperwork for each patient is going to be seen as a useless distraction, so the records are bad.
That said, I'm hard put to think of any additional measures that the Chinese could take beyond what they have already done, so the exact number is immaterial. The quarantined areas will suffer through the epidemic unless a cure is quickly found.
Whether the travel restrictions will be enough to keep the epidemic confined is the main uncertainty. If they fail, I'd expect truly draconian steps in immediate consequence.

do they really think they can contain it this way or is it mainly an excuse to the world
and to its population :
we started the (possible) pandemic but we are doing everything to contain it

[etudiant]

Nurse treating coronavirus sufferers in China claims 90,000 people have already been infected Daily Mail

It would be consistent with the hospital videos we've seen, showing wall to wall patients. Just doing the paperwork for each patient is going to be seen as a useless distraction, so the records are bad.
That said, I'm hard put to think of any additional measures that the Chinese could take beyond what they have already done, so the exact number is immaterial. The quarantined areas will suffer through the epidemic unless a cure is quickly found.
Whether the travel restrictions will be enough to keep the epidemic confined is the main uncertainty. If they fail, I'd expect truly draconian steps in immediate consequence.

[gsgs]

Nurse treating coronavirus sufferers in China claims 90,000 people have already been infected Daily Mail

[Treyfish]

Korea says all of China a coronavirus watch zone


http://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=282451

[Shiloh]

FYI: Epidemic situation of new coronavirus infection in Hubei Province on January 25, 2020
2020-01-26 06:46 | Hubei Provincial Health Committee

At 04:00 on January 25, 2020, Hubei Province reported 323 new confirmed cases of pneumonia with new coronavirus infection, 13 new deaths, and 10 new discharges. among them:

The first confirmed cases were reported in Huangshi City, Xiangyang City and Xianning City. Among the newly confirmed cases, 46 were added in Wuhan, 31 in Huangshi, 2 in Xiangyang, 15 in Shiyan, 19 in Yichang, 23 in Jingzhou, and Jingmen 17 new cases, 43 new cases in Xianning, 29 new cases in Xiaogan, 31 new cases in Suizhou, 6 new cases in Enshi Prefecture, 1 new case in Xiantao City, 2 new cases in Tianmen City; new deaths Among the cases, 7 cases were newly added in Wuhan, 1 in Huangshi, 2 in Jingzhou, and 1 in Jingmen. Among the newly discharged cases, 8 were added in Wuhan and 2 were added in Huanggang.

As of 24:00 on January 25, Hubei Province had reported a total of 1,052 confirmed cases of pneumonitis with new coronavirus infection, 129 severe cases, 52 deaths, and 85 discharged patients. among them:

Among the confirmed cases, 618 were in Wuhan, 31 in Huangshi, 20 in Shiyan, 2 in Xiangyang, 20 in Yichang, 33 in Jingzhou, 38 in Jingmen, 1 in Ezhou, and 55 in Xiaogan. There were 122 cases in Huanggang City, 43 cases in Xianning City, 36 cases in Suizhou City, 17 cases in Enshi Prefecture, 11 cases in Xiantao City, and 5 cases in Tianmen City. Among the deaths, 45 cases were in Wuhan, 1 in Huangshi, 1 in Yichang, and Jingzhou. There were 2 cases in Beijing, 1 in Jingmen, and 2 in Huanggang. Among the discharged patients, there were 40 in Wuhan and 2 in Huanggang.

At present, 7,989 close contacts have been traced, 1,085 medical observations have been lifted, and 6904 people are still receiving medical observations.

This was yesterday;
Hubei Provincial Health and Health Committee's report on pneumonia of new coronavirus infection
2020-01-25 05:01 | Hubei Provincial Health Committee

From January 24, 2020, from 04:00 to 24:00, 180 new cases of pneumonia with new coronavirus infection were added in Hubei Province (77 new cases in Wuhan, 4 new cases in Shiyan City, 13 new cases in Jingmen City, and 13 new cases in Xiaogan City). 4 cases were added, 52 cases were added in Huanggang City, 2 cases were added in Jingzhou City, 8 cases were added in Xiantao City, 5 cases were found for the first time in Suizhou City, 11 cases were found in Enshi City for the first time, 1 case was found in Ezhou City for the first time, and Tianmen City was found for the first time. 3 cases). There were 15 new deaths in the province, all in Wuhan. One case was cured and discharged from Wuhan.

As of 24:00 on January 24, 2020, Hubei Province has reported 729 cases of pneumonia with new type of coronavirus infection (including 572 cases in Wuhan City, 5 cases in Shiyan City, 1 case in Yichang City, 1 case in Ezhou City, 21 cases in Jingmen City, There were 26 cases in Xiaogan City, 10 cases in Jingzhou City, 64 cases in Huanggang City, 5 cases in Suizhou City, 11 cases in Enshi Prefecture, 10 cases in Xiantao City, and 3 cases in Tianmen City. Among them, 32 patients have been discharged and 39 have died (including 38 in Wuhan City). Case, 1 case in Yichang City). At present, 658 patients are still being treated in the hospital, of which 100 are critically ill and 57 are critically ill. They are all under isolation treatment at designated medical institutions. A total of 5,682 close contacts have been tracked, 971 have been released from medical observation, and 4711 are still receiving medical observation.

[Treyfish]

They analyze a possible case of coronavirus in Granada

Another case in Vizcaya has been ruled out after performing the corresponding analyzes.

Efe / Granada 25.01.2020 | 22:48
San Cecilio Hospital of Granada. EP
The Ministry of Health of the Junta de Andaluc?a has activated the national protocol to analyze if a Chinese tourist visiting Granada from Wuhan province is infected with the coronavirus , so he remains in isolation at the PTS hospital in Granada.

According to Efe informed health sources, the tourist was admitted this Saturday at the University Hospital San Cecilio of the PTS of Granada after presenting symptoms that could correspond to Chinese pneumonia, so it remains isolated...

https://www.farodevigo.es/espana/2020/01/25/analizan-posible-caso-coronavirus-granada/2236716.html

[Treyfish]

LIVE UPDATES Health officials to announce ‘presumptive case’ of coronavirus in Toronto


BY RYAN ROCCA GLOBAL NEWS
Posted January 25, 2020 5:10 pm
Updated January 25, 2020 5:25 pm WATCH ABOVE: Ontario Health Minister Christine Elliott and Chief Medical Officer Dr. David Williams are expected to make an urgent announcement.https://globalnews.ca/news/6462626/c...mpression=true