https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1....911669v1.full
A mathematical model for simulating the transmission of Wuhan novel Coronavirus
Tianmu Chen, Jia Rui, Qiupeng Wang, Zeyu Zhao, Jing-An Cui, Ling Yin
This article is a preprint and has not been certified by peer review
Abstract
As reported by the World Health Organization, a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) was identified as the causative virus of Wuhan pneumonia of unknown etiology by Chinese authorities on 7 January, 2020. In this study, we developed a Bats-Hosts-Reservoir-People transmission network model for simulating the potential transmission from the infection source (probable be bats) to the human infection. Since the Bats-Hosts-Reservoir network was hard to explore clearly and public concerns were focusing on the transmission from a seafood market (reservoir) to people, we simplified the model as Reservoir-People transmission network model. The basic reproduction number (R0) was calculated from the RP model to assess the transmissibility of the 2019-nCoV.
Introduction
On 31 December 2019, the World Health Organization (WHO) China Country Office was informed of cases of pneumonia of unknown etiology (unknown cause) detected in Wuhan City, Hubei Province of China, and WHO reported that a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) was identified as the causative virus by Chinese authorities on 7 January(1). Potential for international spread via commercial air travel had been assessed(2). Public health concerns have been paid globally on how many people had been infected actually.
In this study, we developed a Bats-Hosts-Reservoir-People (BHRP) transmission network model for simulating the potential transmission from the infection source (probable be bats) to the human infection. Since the Bats-Hosts-Reservoir network was hard to explore clearly and public concerns were focusing on the transmission from a seafood market (reservoir) to people, we simplified the model as Reservoir-People (RP) transmission network model. The basic reproduction number (R0) was calculated from the RP model to assess the transmissibility of the 2019-nCoV.
The Bats-Hosts-Reservoir-People transmission network model
We assumed that the virus transmitted among the bats population, and then transmitted to an unknown host (probably be wild animals). The hosts were hunted and sent to the seafood market which was defined as the reservoir or the virus. People exposed to the market got the risks of the infection (Figure 1).
diagrams and more at link
also
pdf link
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1...669v1.full.pdf
A mathematical model for simulating the transmission of Wuhan novel Coronavirus
Tianmu Chen, Jia Rui, Qiupeng Wang, Zeyu Zhao, Jing-An Cui, Ling Yin
This article is a preprint and has not been certified by peer review
Abstract
As reported by the World Health Organization, a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) was identified as the causative virus of Wuhan pneumonia of unknown etiology by Chinese authorities on 7 January, 2020. In this study, we developed a Bats-Hosts-Reservoir-People transmission network model for simulating the potential transmission from the infection source (probable be bats) to the human infection. Since the Bats-Hosts-Reservoir network was hard to explore clearly and public concerns were focusing on the transmission from a seafood market (reservoir) to people, we simplified the model as Reservoir-People transmission network model. The basic reproduction number (R0) was calculated from the RP model to assess the transmissibility of the 2019-nCoV.
Introduction
On 31 December 2019, the World Health Organization (WHO) China Country Office was informed of cases of pneumonia of unknown etiology (unknown cause) detected in Wuhan City, Hubei Province of China, and WHO reported that a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) was identified as the causative virus by Chinese authorities on 7 January(1). Potential for international spread via commercial air travel had been assessed(2). Public health concerns have been paid globally on how many people had been infected actually.
In this study, we developed a Bats-Hosts-Reservoir-People (BHRP) transmission network model for simulating the potential transmission from the infection source (probable be bats) to the human infection. Since the Bats-Hosts-Reservoir network was hard to explore clearly and public concerns were focusing on the transmission from a seafood market (reservoir) to people, we simplified the model as Reservoir-People (RP) transmission network model. The basic reproduction number (R0) was calculated from the RP model to assess the transmissibility of the 2019-nCoV.
The Bats-Hosts-Reservoir-People transmission network model
We assumed that the virus transmitted among the bats population, and then transmitted to an unknown host (probably be wild animals). The hosts were hunted and sent to the seafood market which was defined as the reservoir or the virus. People exposed to the market got the risks of the infection (Figure 1).
diagrams and more at link
also
pdf link
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1...669v1.full.pdf
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