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Discussion Thread I - 2019-nCov (new coronavirus)

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  • I am not sure how a government quarantines 11 milion people. The city is about 600 square miles.

    Comment


    • Has anyone seen mentioned how long this "quarantine" is supposed to last? It's going to have an immense impact on the population regarding work and access it vital services. Don't believe a city that large has ever been quarantined in modern times.

      Comment



      • Ramy Inocencio 英若明

        @RamyInocencio
        ?
        2h
        **MAJOR BREAKING**: Wuhan, ground zero for the China #coronavirus, to be on public transport lockdown as of Thursday 10am, reports
        @ChinaDaily
        . All flights and trains from Wuhan to be cancelled. Our @CBSNew team JUST got out late this evening.

        Comment


        • Dr. Ali Khan

          @UNMC_DrKhan
          ?
          36m
          World Health Organization holds off declaring global outbreak of Wuhan Corona virus. I will comment on this on Saturday when I am no longer deployed by @WHO
          ...

          Comment


          • I listened to the press conference....it was a 50/50 split among committee members. It is why they are going to meet again after obtaining more information.

            Comment


            • This is truly unprecedented. Beijing might have quarantined approximately one million people at the peak of the 2003 SARS outbreak, but this would be an order of magnitude higher.

              I'm assuming that most businesses will be shut down so that people don't have to work. I'm hoping the government has planned out logistics for how food and other supplies will get into the city; perhaps the military will be deployed to assist. Without sufficient supplies, quarantine won't work because the quarantined area will become viewed as a death trap that everyone wants to flee.

              There really is no alternative. If this is not contained, we're going to have a pandemic with the transmissibility of flu and the CFR and treatment options of SARS. That's probably worse than even an H5N1 pandemic, as H5N1 has antivirals and perhaps eventually a vaccine.

              I no longer think this virus is as mild as some of the reports portray it. The apparent CFR just seems low because most patients are still ill. Remember that although our estimate of the CFR of H1N1 dropped as the virus spread, the estimated CFR of SARS actually went up as the outbreak went on, the result of already ill patients dying.

              Comment


              • Source: https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_relea...-rtc012220.php


                News Release 22-Jan-2020
                Researchers trace Coronavirus outbreak in China to snakes
                Wiley
                Emerging viral infections--from bird flu to Ebola to Zika infections--pose major threats to global public health, and understanding their origins can help investigators design defensive strategies against future outbreaks. A new study provides important insights on the potential origins of the most recent outbreak of viral pneumonia in China, which started in the middle of December and now is spreading to Hong Kong, Singapore, Thailand, and Japan. The findings are published early online in the Journal of Medical Virology...

                Full Citations:

                "Homologous recombination within the spike glycoprotein of the newly identified coronavirus may boost cross-species transmission from snake to human." Wei Ji, Wei Wang, Xiaofang Zhao, Junjie Zai, and Xingguang Li. Journal of Medical Virology; Published Online: January 22, 2020 (DOI: 10.1002/jmv.25682).

                URL Upon Publication: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jmv.25682

                "Global Health Concern Stirred by Emerging Viral Infections." Guangxiang (George) Luo and Shou-Jiang Gao. Journal of Medical Virology; Published Online: January 22, 2020 (DOI: 10.1002/jmv.25683).

                URL Upon Publication: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jmv.25683

                About Wiley

                Comment


                • RIO DE JANEIRO (Sputnik) - The Brazilian authorities suspect a 35-year old female citizen who has recently returned from the Chinese city of Shanghai of being infected with a new strain of coronavirus, the health ministry of the Minas Gerais state said on Wednesday.

                  According to the ministry, on Tuesday, a medical center in the state capital of Belo Horizonte received "a patient, a female Brazilian citizen, 35 years old, who arrived from China (she was in Shanghai) to Belo Horizonte on 18 January, with symptoms of an acute respiratory viral infection."..https://sputniknews.com/world/202001...alth-ministry/
                  CSI:WORLD http://swineflumagazine.blogspot.com/

                  treyfish2004@yahoo.com

                  Comment


                  • Nightmare scenario. This is supposedly about Wuhan hospital. I am not there so I have no personal idea.


                    "There is a film" taking a sneak shot of the real situation of Wuhan Hospital is extremely chilling

                    4 hours ago


                    zhttp://hot.petonea.com/view2/4069

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Treyfish View Post
                      RIO DE JANEIRO (Sputnik) - The Brazilian authorities suspect a 35-year old female citizen who has recently returned from the Chinese city of Shanghai of being infected with a new strain of coronavirus, the health ministry of the Minas Gerais state said on Wednesday.

                      According to the ministry, on Tuesday, a medical center in the state capital of Belo Horizonte received "a patient, a female Brazilian citizen, 35 years old, who arrived from China (she was in Shanghai) to Belo Horizonte on 18 January, with symptoms of an acute respiratory viral infection."..https://sputniknews.com/world/202001...alth-ministry/
                      Here is the Ministry of Health notice:


                      Suspected case for Coronavirus

                      January 22, 2020, 16:26
                      Updated on January 22, 2020, 17:00
                      About the suspected Coronavirus case, the Minas Gerais State Department of Health (SES-MG), informs:

                      On 01/21/2020, a 35-year-old Brazilian patient was identified at the UPA Centro Sul in Belo Horizonte, from China (was in Shanghai) and arrived in Belo Horizonte on 01/18, with respiratory symptoms, compatible with acute viral respiratory disease.

                      The case was notified as a suspect . In view of the current epidemiological context of the country where the patient was, the hypothesis of a disease caused by the new Coronavirus, which is an international health alert microorganism, was considered, considering the pandemic potential with high risk to life and assistance impact.

                      Despite not showing any sign of clinical severity , the patient was quickly taken to the HEM for careful observation in a hospital setting. The Eduardo de Menezes Hospital (HEM) was promptly activated by CIEVS-MG and CIEVS-BH and organized in a few minutes to receive the patient. All assistance measures to reduce the risk of transmission were taken .

                      This case has been reported as a suspect for Coronavirus and the patient is clinically stable and the case is still under investigation .

                      According to information that was passed on by the patient to CIEVS BH, she reported that she was not in the Wunhan region and that she also had no contact with a symptomatic person in China.

                      Tests that are able to confirm or rule out the diagnostic hypothesis are in progress in reference laboratories .

                      HEM is a state reference for the care of infectious diseases, public health emergencies and attention to health problems, and that for these cases, a fast and qualified response is required, with isolation in a specific area and careful clinical monitoring and test results,

                      Regional alerts

                      SES-MG informs that on 20/01/2020, the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) issued the New Corononavirus Alert . According to the document, in view of the situation, the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) advise Member States to strengthen surveillance activities to detect any unusual respiratory health events.

                      The SES-MG issued the alert to the regional health units, which will forward the guidance of WHO and PAHO to the municipalities in Minas Gerais.

                      http://www.saude.mg.gov.br/component...ra-coronavirus

                      Comment


                      • I do not believe the word "quarantine" has been used in reference to Wuhan by any official statements. I do not think they are attempting a quarantine since the virus has already spread significantly. What I do believe they are trying to accomplish is flatten out the curve in the rise in number of cases. The bulk of the cases (present and future) are at this point in Wuhan. If they can slow the spread any at all then it will buy them time to respond on a national scale. That said, this action will be very difficult for all concerned. But probably the wisest choice considering what would happen otherwise.

                        Comment


                        • Also - to all the members of 'Flublogia" - Welcome to FluTrackers!

                          You know...Flu Wiki, Effect Measure, Plan for Pandemic, CurEvents, Pandemic Forum Information, Readymoms. Us oldies remember all of you!

                          You Are Welcome Here.

                          We are about the same as you remember us. We are low key. Respect for all.

                          There is no organized posting. Everyone finds information that they think is interesting and they make the decisions where to post and how to present that information. In respect of copyright we only post a snip of any information in its original language unless we have permission. Also, no posting of graphs, maps, pictures without the originators approval.

                          Everything we know is posted publicly. We do not have a moderator's thread on this outbreak. There is no "members only" thread.

                          If we know it, you know it.

                          It would be really great if some of you would like to participate. A lot of experience and knowledge was lost when the other forums/blogs shut down.

                          Thank you very much!




                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Okieman View Post
                            I do not believe the word "quarantine" has been used in reference to Wuhan by any official statements. I do not think they are attempting a quarantine since the virus has already spread significantly. What I do believe they are trying to accomplish is flatten out the curve in the rise in number of cases. The bulk of the cases (present and future) are at this point in Wuhan. If they can slow the spread any at all then it will buy them time to respond on a national scale. That said, this action will be very difficult for all concerned. But probably the wisest choice considering what would happen otherwise.
                            Agree.

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by alert View Post
                              This is truly unprecedented. Beijing might have quarantined approximately one million people at the peak of the 2003 SARS outbreak, but this would be an order of magnitude higher.

                              I'm assuming that most businesses will be shut down so that people don't have to work. I'm hoping the government has planned out logistics for how food and other supplies will get into the city; perhaps the military will be deployed to assist. Without sufficient supplies, quarantine won't work because the quarantined area will become viewed as a death trap that everyone wants to flee.

                              There really is no alternative. If this is not contained, we're going to have a pandemic with the transmissibility of flu and the CFR and treatment options of SARS. That's probably worse than even an H5N1 pandemic, as H5N1 has antivirals and perhaps eventually a vaccine.

                              I no longer think this virus is as mild as some of the reports portray it. The apparent CFR just seems low because most patients are still ill. Remember that although our estimate of the CFR of H1N1 dropped as the virus spread, the estimated CFR of SARS actually went up as the outbreak went on, the result of already ill patients dying.
                              We know it is spreading at a rapid rate and is easily transmissible among people. What we don’t know yet is the incubation period and just how virulent this coronavirus is. Obviously, a good estimate for the CFR has not yet been determined.

                              Hopefully more information about possible home treatment and isolation will be available for the people of Wuhan. Wuhan will be a test bed on how to control the spread of a transmissible disease in a very large city in the 21st century.
                              http://novel-infectious-diseases.blogspot.com/

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Laidback Al View Post

                                We know it is spreading at a rapid rate and is easily transmissible among people. What we don’t know yet is the incubation period and just how virulent this coronavirus is. Obviously, a good estimate for the CFR has not yet been determined.

                                Hopefully more information about possible home treatment and isolation will be available for the people of Wuhan. Wuhan will be a test bed on how to control the spread of a transmissible disease in a very large city in the 21st century.
                                A slightly miserable thought has occurred to me, which is this. The links between China and Africa are extensive; specifically South Africa, India, Sri Lanka and a host of other third world nations. What are the odds that a case has not been exported already to one of these countries? And if we agree that this looks increasingly likely, what hope for containment and control there? With all the NGOs involved, the WHO can assist in containment efforts in one or two loci, not multiple ones. Example DRC and the Ebola outbreak which is still ongoing. So if this genie has indeed already escaped the bottle, the best we can hope for is a slowing down of the epidemic before it develops a global reach and aquires pandemic status. There will be no white night cavalry of a vaccine on the horizon; the best we can hope for a slightly slower onslaught. In the UK the NHS is on the brink of collapse already. There are no beds and no spare resources. Grim picture if the non medically assisted CFR is anything greater than 2% based on 1918 experience. So what can we do? Research to find possible interventions that may help, dig out any old documentation on social distancing etc. Any other ideas?

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