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Discussion Thread I - 2019-nCov (new coronavirus)

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  • Originally posted by Roehl_JC View Post
    A Brisbane man is in isolation and will undergo further tests, after presenting with symptoms of the coronavirus following a trip to China.

    Queensland's chief health officer Jeneatte Young announced on Tuesday the man was being held in isolation at home as further tests are carried out, after he developed symptoms of a respiratory illness.

    Earlier tests, after he returned from the Chinese city of Wuhan -- the epicentre of the virus outbreak -- and showed symptoms of the virus, proved inconclusive...."
    https://10daily.com.au/news/australi...china-20200121
    Australia -

    Chief Medical Officer media conference about novel coronavirus

    Read the transcript of the Professor Brendan Murphy's media conference about the novel coronavirus outbreak in China, Thailand, South Korea and Japan.


    Date published:
    21 January 2020
    ...
    In response to this significant development over the weekend, and because Australia has significant numbers of international travellers from Wuhan and from China, we are putting in place some additional proportionate border measures. In particular, these measures relate to the three direct flights a week from Wuhan to Sydney. Each of these flights will now be met by our border security and biosecurity staff and New South Wales Health. They will be providing to all the passengers an information pamphlet in English and Mandarin, outlining the symptoms this disease might deliver and asking them to identify themselves at the border if anyone has a fever or any of the symptoms that suspect that they might have this disease. And then if they are suspected of having this condition, New South Wales Health will follow up as per our normal border security and biosecurity protocols.
    ...
    No international travellers have yet been confirmed as having this coronavirus in Australia and we already have well-established existing biosecurity measures at the border, where airlines are required – and have been for many years – to declare any ill passengers on board and we have protocols for assessing those passengers at the border.

    A number of potential passengers have been assessed by state health authorities but there have been no confirmed cases of this disease. We have the diagnostic capability in our laboratories to diagnose this condition and we are well prepared in our public health system and all of our state and territory health services have the facilities to diagnose, treat and isolate any patients who might have this suspected disease...

    QUESTION: Has there been consideration at this point to expand [indistinct]… they've being screened as they come in? [Indistinct]…

    BRENDAN MURPHY: ...
    I think the important thing to remember is this border screening; you cannot absolutely prevent entry into the country of a disease like this. The incubation period is probably about a week, many people who are incubating will be completely A-symptomatic and without any symptoms or fever. So the purpose of borders, border measures is to identify those people that we can where there's a high risk and to ensure that people with a high risk know about it and get attention. But there is no perfect way of preventing entry into the country if this disease becomes much bigger, we need to respond to it as we always do.
    ...
    https://www.health.gov.au/news/chief...el-coronavirus
    "Safety and security don't just happen, they are the result of collective consensus and public investment. We owe our children, the most vulnerable citizens in our society, a life free of violence and fear."
    -Nelson Mandela

    Comment


    • Other than the fact that this isn't influenza, this looks more like 2009 H1N1 in terms of rate of spread and severity of imported cases than 2003 SARS. The first imported case in Toronto in 2003 died. Her son then became infected and he died. In 2009, entire schools or people came back ill and recovered in a week.

      All 6 deaths so far have had some pretty severe pre-existing conditions.

      How do we know this virus is more severe than, say, the four previously known human coronaviruses?

      Comment


      • I visited the site for the first time in a long time today. Sorry for the hiatus, but I started a new job 18 months ago and, etc.

        This is the first I had heard of the Novel Coronavirus. What struck me in a cursory reading of the stories is how uncharacteristically serious officials seem to be taking this. It seems like a change from previous viral outbreaks.
        "I know God will not give me anything I can't handle. I just wish that He didn't trust me so much." - Mother Teresa of Calcutta

        Comment


        • Tom Durian‏ @TMJ4Tom

          Several passengers coming off the United flight from Shanghai say 2 people were removed from their flight in Chicago because they were sick. Reaching out to Chicago health officials to see if this is connected to #coronavirus Passengers say they were screened in China. @tmj4https://twitter.com/TMJ4Tom/status/1...664671746?s=19
          CSI:WORLD http://swineflumagazine.blogspot.com/

          treyfish2004@yahoo.com

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Jim Oliveros View Post
            I visited the site for the first time in a long time today. Sorry for the hiatus, but I started a new job 18 months ago and, etc.

            This is the first I had heard of the Novel Coronavirus. What struck me in a cursory reading of the stories is how uncharacteristically serious officials seem to be taking this. It seems like a change from previous viral outbreaks.
            I think several countries got burned by their slow response to imported Ebola cases and they learned from that lesson.

            Comment


            • Originally posted by theforeigner View Post
              I know The Sun is not the most reliable news source but I'll post this just in case it is true.
              The 38-year old british man has NOT been in Chine, so IF this turn out to be the new coronavirus then it sems like it might be able to infect human to human:

              https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/107755...e-coronavirus/
              VIRUS STRIKES British tourist fighting for life in Thailand feared to be first western victim of mystery Chinese coronavirus

              • Andy Jehring
              • 20 Jan 2020, 0:48
              • Updated: 20 Jan 2020, 1:05
              He was sick with seasonal flu + bacterial pneumonia.

              The Department of Disease Control, Ministry of Public Health (MOPH), Thailand reported that the laboratory examination for a British traveler found that he was infected by influenza A virus with bacterial pneumonia, not related to the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV). This patient did not go to Wuhan, China.
              On January 21, 2020, Dr.Sopon Iamsirithaworn, Division of Communicable Diseases Director and Incident Commander of Emergency Operations Center (EOC) said that international news reported a 32-year-old British traveler got sick in Thailand and was rumored to have 2019-nCoV. Based on information verified by the Phuket Provincial Public Health Office on December 29, 2019, the British man was first admitted to a private hospital on Phi Phi Island, Krabi province. Laboratory examination found that this patient had an influenza virus infection with bacterial pneumonia. He was admitted to a private hospital in Phuket province on January 2, 2020. On January 5, 2020, his family requested the doctor to transfer him to be admitted to a private hospital in Bangkok. His medical condition has since improved.
              Before arriving to Thailand, the patient had no history of travelling to Wuhan, China. Thus, he did not meet the criteria for a patient under investigation suspected with 2019-nCoV infection. Dr. Iamsirithawon said that the MOPH, Thailand urged the public not to panic. Thailand has been intensively enhancing surveillance and closely monitoring the situation both inside and outside the country. Many tourists are anticipated to travel to Thailand during the Chinese New Year Festival, therefore the MOPH,
              Thailand has implemented surveillance and control measures to cover the following four aspects: 1) enhancing surveillance, screening travelers of direct flights from Wuhan, and placing travelers suspected with 2019-nCoV infection who arrive at the five international airports in isolation; 2) maintaining standardization of clinical management and diagnosis for patients under investigation (PUI); 3) strengthening the referral system in public and private hospitals of the PUI to isolation in negative pressure rooms; and 4) strengthening surveillance in communities popular for tourists across the country. These integrated measures can increase the ability to manage emerging infectious diseases effectively.
              If it is necessary for people to visit the affected 2019-nCoV areas such as Wuhan, it is recommended that everyone protect themselves by avoiding crowded places, avoiding markets that sell carcasses or live animals, and avoiding contact with patients who have respiratory diseases. If anyone has symptoms of coughing, sneezing, panting or runny nose after arriving from an affected area, please seek medical advice at the hospital immediately and inform the healthcare provider of travel history to China for further diagnosis. For any further information, please call the DDC Hotline 1422

              https://pr.moph.go.th/?url=pr/detail/2/02/137463/

              Comment


              • Situation in Shanghai. Confirmed case escaped from hospital and visited multiple sites before being caught:

                https://twitter.com/tingguowrites/st...53895686344704

                Comment


                • Current status of the 2019-nCoV outbreak

                  The following graph shows the count of the 2019-NCoV cases since January 11, 2020, when the 41 cases from Wuhan were confirmed as a novel coronavirus. As of the 21st, the total number of confirmed cases exceeds 280 cases, most in Wuhan and Hubei province in China. The initial number of cases from Wuhan between the 11th and the 20th only shot up dramatically when reports of infected individuals were reported from other provinces in China and infected individuals arriving in other countries. This data seems to confirm that human-to-human transmission is occurring at a rapid rate in Wuhan. (data from the Hong Centre for Health Protection note: the number of cases is a logarithmic scale).

                  NCoV cases Jan 21 2020.jpg
                  http://novel-infectious-diseases.blogspot.com/

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by Jim Oliveros View Post
                    I visited the site for the first time in a long time today. Sorry for the hiatus, but I started a new job 18 months ago and, etc.

                    This is the first I had heard of the Novel Coronavirus. What struck me in a cursory reading of the stories is how uncharacteristically serious officials seem to be taking this. It seems like a change from previous viral outbreaks.
                    I think also that a) the reports are stating air droplet transmission from coughing or sneezing and b) the growth in cases is apparently exponential. h2h transmission increasingly looks sustained. This is not like SARS where it took a superspreader; it appears more like the common cold in terms of transmission or flu... in which case containment will be difficult. Even more, current antivirals are targeted at flu and dont work here, so there is no allopathic medical intervention.. i.e the medics have no answers, and most pandemic plans center around flu where vaccines can be made. That will worry them re: population messaging, because a vaccine is a no go also. None has been developed, and this isnt like the movies where one can magically appear in weeks, or at least the seed strain for one..

                    Comment


                    • Children seem to be spared, for the moment, this is a good news

                      Comment


                      • Children were spared in SARS, too. Not clear if it's something about their immune systems and the virus, or simply that SARS was a caregivers' disease in that many people caught it taking care of sick relatives. Children are rarely involved in taking care of the sick, and are also less likely to visit hospitals were transmission occurred.

                        My hope that this might be a previously undiscovered common virus appears to be gone, given that the sequences of the virus are similar enough to indicate a recent jump to humans.

                        It seems obvious to me that this virus is basically everywhere in Wuhan. Four separate importations to Thailand? I think Thailand had something like one SARS case total in 2003. What's not clear at all is the CFR. Lower than flu? The same as seasonal flu? A little higher? Much higher? I can't even begin to imagine what the effect of such a virus on flu season would be if this is not contained. I doubt this virus would drive out any existing flu strains because it's not flu, so the burden of this would be added to whatever influenza circulates. There's not going to be a vaccine or any antivirals for this.

                        I can't think of a single historical example of an acute, non-flu, pandemic. If this virus is not contained, that's what we're facing.

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by alert View Post
                          [snip] I can't even begin to imagine what the effect of such a virus on flu season would be if this is not contained. I doubt this virus would drive out any existing flu strains because it's not flu, so the burden of this would be added to whatever influenza circulates. There's not going to be a vaccine or any antivirals for this.

                          I can't think of a single historical example of an acute, non-flu, pandemic. If this virus is not contained, that's what we're facing.
                          Being vaccinated for flu could make infection with corona or other viruses worse:

                          https://www.sciencedirect.com/scienc...64410X19313647
                          "Vaccine derived virus interference was significantly associated with coronavirus and human metapneumovirus"

                          https://www.sciencedirect.com/scienc...153?via%3Dihub
                          "Among children there was an increase in the hazard of ARI caused by non-influenza respiratory pathogens post-influenza vaccination compared to unvaccinated children during the same period."

                          _____________________________________________

                          Ask Congress to Investigate COVID Origins and Government Response to Pandemic H.R. 834

                          i love myself. the quietest. simplest. most powerful. revolution ever. ---- nayyirah waheed

                          (My posts are not intended as advice or professional assessments of any kind.)
                          Never forget Excalibur.

                          Comment


                          • I think we need to start thinking laterally re treatments. If this does indeed go pandemic then beds for ARDS and white goods for intubation / respiratory assistance will rapidly vanish, so I can see a situation where essentially people will have to ride it out at home, or in makeshift isolation wards with minimal medical interventions. Not good. So, as its a coronavirus, how useful might conventional cold remedies be? I know its a stretch, but that may be all that is on the table.

                            Comment


                            • Thought I would have a hunt and see what China used in its SARS epidemic or for any subsequent research. Found this. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4032839/
                              Page down for summary table for SARS interventions.

                              Comment


                              • Emily, I think vaccinating for the flu is important in order to avoid confusing the new disease with the flu. As for as the studies you mention, the risk is the higher incidence of respiratory diseases and not the severity

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