Discussion Thread I - 2019-nCov (new coronavirus)

[alert]

Because the other options suck. The influenza antivirals won't work on this. The experimental antivirals used to treat viral hemorrhagic fevers such as Ebola and Marburg are virus specific. And ribavirin, which was widely used in 2003 to treat SARS patients did more harm than good and often left patients permanently disabled due to the side effects. Hong Kong reported that many of the more severe cases of SARS that survived had permanent bone damage from the ribavirin.

Apparently, China still thinks they can contain this virus. I can't imagine how. But if they succeed, I can't help but imagine that there's going to be a lot of blowback against the US and Mexico for not trying to contain 2009 H1N1.

[gsgs]

the problem with these lab-escape theories is -as before- the virology, the mutation count.
They would not discuss this, as it usually didn't support the claim.
Why should the lab use a virus that is currently circulating in bats ? Just so they have an argument
of natural release if it escapes ? But then, if it occurs in Nature why should the risk from a lab-escape
be greater ? Unless it hadn't been manipulated .. but they would see that by comparing it to the
wild strains.
As I understood they did not find a good match of this virus yet in bats, hopefully they will find some.
The best match is from bats in 2018 with 3500 mutations, then the SARS virus from 2003 with 5900 mutations

[gsgs]

list of cases :

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1itaohdPiAeniCXNlntNztZ_oRvjh0HsGuJXUJWET008/edit#gid=0

mean age of infection was 47 years
37% of cases were female

This database is being updated regularly and epidemiological information
about Wuhan will be included over the coming days.

Moritz Kraemer , University of Oxford

http://virological.org/t/epidemiological-data-from-the-ncov-2019-outbreak-early-descriptions-from-publicly-available-data/337/2

[hawkeye]

Seeing rumors/posts that people from Wuhan are being denied social services (which I assume means all services) within other cities. Also that they are being told to leave and to go back to Wuhan by other citizens and the authorities.

[Emily]

the problem with these lab-escape theories is -as before- the virology, the mutation count.
They would not discuss this, as it usually didn't support the claim.
Why should the lab use a virus that is currently circulating in bats ? Just so they have an argument
of natural release if it escapes ? But then, if it occurs in Nature why should the risk from a lab-escape
be greater ? Unless it hadn't been manipulated .. but they would see that by comparing it to the
wild strains.
As I understood they did not find a good match of this virus yet in bats, hopefully they will find some.
The best match is from bats in 2018 with 3500 mutations, then the SARS virus from 2003 with 5900 mutations

To see if it can infect humans.

https://www.nature.com/articles/nm.3985

"While public health measures silenced the SARS-CoV outbreak2, recent metagenomics studies have identified sequences of closely related SARS-like viruses circulating in Chinese bat populations that may pose a future threat4,5. However, sequence data alone provides minimal insights to identify and prepare for future pre-pandemic viruses. Therefore, to examine emergence potential of circulating CoVs, we built a chimeric virus that encodes a novel, zoonotic spike protein in the context of a viable CoV backbone"

[Emily]

The Twitter hashtags #SARS and #Wuhan are blowing up with people suggesting the BSL4 lab in Wuhan, the only one in China, as the origin of this virus, either through intentional or accidental release. There are several news articles out this morning, including one in the Washington Times to that effect, accusing China of working on this virus in a bioweapons program.

This is still really an animal virus, even if we haven't determined which animal and where it jumped to humans. I can't imagine someone is smart enough to engineer a SARS-like virus to spread this efficiently H2H and then accidentally release it in the lab. I just don't think we know that much about coronaviruses in general to pull that off. Also, if the lab had engineered the virus, we would have gotten these draconian measures to fight it three weeks ago when the virus was discovered as they would have known the potential of the virus.

I've seen obvious propaganda, against both China and the US. This takes the cake:

https://themediatimes.com/chinese-re...a-accompanied/

The timing is all off and the researcher is into Ebola, not coronaviruses. She did do safety training at the Wuhan lab, but I think that is irrelevant. This outbreak is being exploited politically for certain. That is the only thing that is certain.

[Commonground]

1/26
Excerpt:

A notice from the embassy in Beijing said there would be limited capacity to transport U.S. citizens on the flight that will proceed directly to San Francisco. It says that in the event there are not enough seats, priority will be given to to individuals “at greater risk from coronavirus.”

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe says he is making arrangements to fly Japanese people home from Wuhan and is in talks with China. Abe told reporters that Japanese who wish to be evacuated will be flown out on a chartered flight. He said officials had been working on such preparations through the weekend.

Also on Sunday, Chinese authorities announced a temporary ban on the trade of wild animals, saying they will “severely investigate and punish” violators. The ban will continue until “the epidemic situation is lifted nationwide” in order to prevent the spread of the new coronavirus and block potential sources of infection and transmission.

https://www.kalb.com/content/news/3rd-US-case-of-new-virus-confirmed-as-consulate-prepares-to-evacuate-Wuhan-China-567306651.html?ref=651

[Commonground]

1/26 Beijiang:
Excerpts:

[Last updated: Sunday Jan 26, 6.02pm] Throughout the CNY holiday, we will be updating this post several times daily in to give you the most up-to-date information on:the number of coronavirus cases in Beijing and China and what Beijing-centric news we find.

The source of the infection numbers is the Chinese-language WeChat account Dr. Lilac (丁香医生), a professional medical consultation platform, which in turn is getting the data from official reports from national media as well as the local municipal bureau of health. Dr Lilac's list does not cover reports of cases and suspected cases overseas. Total reported coronavirus cases in China (as of 5.58pm Sun Jan 26)

• 2,036 confirmed
• 2,684 suspected
• 49 recovered
• 56 deaths

Cases in Beijing and surrounding areas:

Beijing: 54 confirmed cases, 2 recovered
(see link for breakdown)



Word on the street

• (1/26, 5.41pm) School's Out: The Beijing Municipal Commission of Education this afternoon announced that all schools in Beijing from kindergarten to colleges will indefinitely delay reopening after the Chinese New Year break to prevent the spread of the virus. Very scant details were provided in the news release except that a proposed date of reopening was to be determined by the outbreak situation. Public schools were due to resume post-CNY on Feb 17, so it's likely the delay will last longer than that. No details yet on how pirvate international schools will be affected by this directive. We'll be following it closely on our sister site beijingkids.

https://www.thebeijinger.com/blog/20...unt-in-beijing

[alert]

Thailand has discharged 5 of 8 cases, with no deaths, and presumably most Thai cases are more recent than most cases in China since the Thai cases contracted the virus in China.

The fact that China has discharged so few confirmed cases is bizarre. The only thing I can think of is that China is only testing and confirming the extremely severe cases, thus the long durations of illness. But we know China confirmed 14 HCW who had contact with a single patient. By probability alone, shouldn't most of those cases have been discharged by now?

Or is the testing regime in China so bad that most of those 14 represent a significant chunk of their 49 total discharges? We know that 28 of their discharges are from the initial 41 cases which include no HCW, so China has basically discharged no one else?

Or is China intentionally not discharging recovered cases for fear of them still being able to spread the virus?

[Ronan Kelly]

I know that it's early on and the data set is small but....

Some perspective on the novel coronavirus. It killed 15, mostly older people, in China yesterday. In contrast, Pneumonia killed around 400, mostly older people in the US yesterday. The thing is, the fatality curve is currently exponential, doubling every 2-3 days. If that rate of increase continues, it could exceed 400/ deaths a day by February 9 and double every 2-3 days after that. The unknowns right now are how long the outbreak is going to match the exponential curve and where it is going to top out.

[gsgs]

To see if it can infect humans.

https://www.nature.com/articles/nm.3985

"While public health measures silenced the SARS-CoV outbreak2, recent metagenomics studies have identified sequences of closely related SARS-like viruses circulating in Chinese bat populations that may pose a future threat4,5. However, sequence data alone provides minimal insights to identify and prepare for future pre-pandemic viruses. Therefore, to examine emergence potential of circulating CoVs, we built a chimeric virus that encodes a novel, zoonotic spike protein in the context of a viable CoV backbone"

hmm, I can't easily check the sequences ATM, maybe later. There were several recombinations. But I assume the experts would already have told us, if there's something fishy with the mutation rates

BTW. the calculated onset now seems to match the first symptoms. One introduction only.

[Ronan Kelly]

Comment - that's a lot of potential contacts. I wonder where she went in Europe...

Live / Wuhan pneumonia confirmed again! The fourth confirmed case in Taiwan ... The command center urgently held a press conference

Reporter Ke Zhenzhong / Taipei

The pneumonia epidemic in Wuhan continues to spread. A press conference will be held on the evening of the 26th Central Epidemic Epidemic Control Center to confirm another confirmed case of Wuhan pneumonia. Taiwan has already confirmed the fourth case. "ETtoday News Cloud" was broadcast.

[Update] The Central Epidemic Epidemic Command Center pointed out on the evening of the 26th that the fourth patient diagnosed with pneumonia in Wuhan was a female in her 50s in the north. She had traveled to Wuhan on the 13th to 15th, and traveled to Europe on the 16th to 25th. Coughing symptoms appeared on the 22nd, and the cough worsened on the 25th. She returned to Taiwan by herself, wearing a mask on the plane and filling in the "Health Declaration Card for Passengers Entering the New Coronavirus Pneumonia", and informed the airport quarantine staff at the time of entry. Sent to hospital for treatment.

After the test, the woman was diagnosed with Wuhan pneumonia on the 26th, and her condition is stable. The health unit will continue to track the health of the relevant contacts on the flight back to Taiwan.

https://www.ettoday.net/news/20200126/1633012.htm

[BostonRN]

Coronavirus spreading with no symptoms

https://www.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-hnk-intl-01-26-20/index.html

What would happen to our entire model of isolating people with symptoms if it spreads in people without symptoms? This seems to be a unique trait. How would this impact us containing it?

[etudiant]

Coronavirus spreading with no symptoms

https://www.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-hnk-intl-01-26-20/index.html

What would happen to our entire model of isolating people with symptoms if it spreads in people without symptoms? This seems to be a unique trait. How would this impact us containing it?

The outbreak management models are not very useful here, based on the experience to date. Just for openers, the mayor of Wuhan indicated that 5 million people had left the city.
Even factoring in the natural travel for the New Year holiday, it is not plausible that these several million people can be isolated wherever they are now.
The immediate infectiousness is an added feature of this contagion that totally defeats the isolation model. It also poses massive risk for the global spread of this epidemic.

The only coherent solution appears to be that reportedly suggested by one of the top Chinese virologists, for everyone to isolate in place for two weeks.
Unfortunately, that is impossible to do in a very complex and highly technology dependent society. So expect worse, we have not imho yet begun to see the real impact.

[Treyfish]

The U.S. CDC will provide an update on coronavirus at 3 p.m. ET