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Discussion Thread I - 2019-nCov (new coronavirus)

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  • #16
    not sure if people will want to go to a dr if they may be forced to isolate at a hospital, and maybe should have to isolate at home?

    Quarantine order execution process

    ◆ Patients seek medical treatment from public / private hospitals or private clinics

    ◆ Whether the doctor's diagnosis and treatment meet the two major requirements of isolation:

     1. Have been to Wuhan within 14 days before the onset of illness;

     2. Symptoms of fever, pneumonia, and upper respiratory tract infection

    ◆ If so, the doctor must fill in the report form and call the CHP to report

    ◆ After analysis by the Centre for Health Protection, an isolation order will be issued by the Director of Health when necessary to force patients to isolate

    ◆ Patients must be sent to a public hospital for medical treatment. If the quarantine order is violated, the maximum fine is 5,000 yuan and the prison is 6 months.


    • #17
      ,,,When asked if the Hong Kong government decided not to send staff to Wuhan to learn about the epidemic situation or the mainland did not allow it, Chen Zhaoshi did not respond positively, saying only that Wuhan was busy dealing with the epidemic situation. When is it appropriate? " This newspaper was informed that a team of scientists in Hong Kong had offered to go to Wuhan or Beijing to assist the local government, but so far they have not been invited by the Mainland.,,,

      Taiwan also asked to send people
      The Office of Disease Control also sent a letter to the CCP officials, asking to go and learn about the epidemic.
      Director of the Department of Epidemic Center for Disease Control Liuding Ping : "That the current Chinese Communist Party official to say it is not yet obvious situation of human transmission."

      In addition, the CDC also sent a letter to the "National Health and Health Commission of China", hoping to send people to mainland China to understand the epidemic situation. However, the other party only stated that it had received the letter and did not respond to further arrangements..
      Last edited by Treyfish; January 7, 2020, 05:04 PM.


      • #18
        Information seems to be beginning to flow. It looks like the causative agent is a CoV and is speculated to be a BetaCoV, although I do not know on what basis, if it is then bats should become the focus of the investigation for a host reservoir. Reports seem to indicate that the virus has been identified in 15 patients and that its very large genome has been fully sequenced but I have not seen any reports of sequence release or confirmation even that it is a BetaCov, both would be very helpful at this stage. Going forward we will hopefully get some information on the S gene whose protein host the receptor binding domain (as HA does in flu) and the ability to compare this the other BetaCoVs. If the outbreak persist and H2H becomes a factor then sequence changes indicating host adaption would become the research target. Just my thoughts - very possibly entirely erroneous - so caveat emptor.


        • #19
          Current status of the “viral pneumonia” outbreak in Wuhan China.

          Key points from the Hong Kong Centre for Health Protection (CHP) announcement on January 11, 2020 from post #151 in the News Thread on this outbreak.

          1. After preliminary determination, the pathogen of "viral pneumonia with unknown cause" is a novel coronavirus.

          2. As of yesterday (January 10), 41 patients in Wuhan have been diagnosed to have been infected with the novel coronavirus. These patients are mainly business operators at a market called "Hua Nan Seafood Wholesale Market" in Wuhan, which has been closed since January 1. (note: other reports have placed the number of confirmed cases in Wuhan at 59 [News Thread #145]).

          3. There have been no new cases in Wuhan since January 3.

          4. Among the 41 confirmed patients, two patients have been discharged, seven patients are in serious condition and one died, while the remaining patients are in stable condition.

          5. 739 close contacts including 419 healthcare workers have been monitoring and none have yet exhibited symptoms.

          6. According to the mainland health officials there is no definite evidence of human-to-human transmission. (note: it is not clear the all infections among the 41[59] patients in Wuhan were a result of animal-to-human transmission in the market).

          No confirmed cases of this novel coronavirus have yet been reported outside of Hubei Province in China.


          • #20
            Thought it helpful to pull this info from media reports of the 1/15/2020 Hong Kong Press Conference (post on page 14 & 15

            * 70% of patients work long hours in the South China Seafood Market in Wuhan. The relevant merchants mainly sell aquatic products, not game. However, it was revealed that in addition to aquatic products and birds, the market involved also includes bamboo rats, snakes, crickets, hedgehogs, etc. Game, but the quantity of game sold is unknown.

            * pointed out that the local staff did not collect only near the aquatic stalls, but the virus was only found in the aquatic stalls. As for the survival time of the virus, it is still to be studied. Because it is not an animal sample, the health committee failed to pinpoint the source of the virus.

            * Zhang Zhujun said that of the 41 patients in Wuhan, seven adults had visited the South China Seafood Market, which is believed to be the source of the disease. The remaining patients reported that they had not been there or were "too serious to ask", and most of the patients appeared on the market for sale. The area of ​​aquatic seafood is not for those who sell game.

            * a couple infected by the mainland has not been identified. It is said that his wife became ill after he brought home items from the market and polluted the environment. She also pointed out that in addition to the couple's case, there was also a case of a three-person group in which the patients were a father and son and a son-in-law.

            *Zhang Zhujun pointed out that environmental samples from the South China seafood market, including the ground, table tops, and gloves, were positive for the new coronavirus, and the samples came from areas where aquatic products were sold. She said that although human-to-human cases of infected couples could not be ruled out at this stage, it is also possible that the husband brought home the virus-carrying items from the market, which polluted the home environment and infected his wife.

            * A couple who was defined as a family group case, Zhang Zhujun initially only said that her husband developed the disease first, and his wife developed the disease "every few days". After questioning, she said that "there was no question to be clear". It is believed that the conversation between the mainland personnel occurred about 5 days apart. She also did not ask whether the condition of the wife, who was later affected, was more severe or milder than that of her husband.

            * One group is two couples. Mr. worked in the South China seafood market where many cases were found and took the lead. His wife had never been to the market and became ill after 5 days. The infection was transmitted to his wife from the onset of the husband, so there may be a case of human-to-human transmission, but the underground, tabletop and glove samples of the market involved have detected the new coronavirus. Zhang Zhujun acknowledged that the possibility of transmitting the virus through contaminated objects could not be ruled out.

            *The Chairman of the Infectious Diseases Advisory Committee of the Hong Kong Medical Association, Liang Zichao, believes that the apparent evidence of the two couples points to human transmission, but it may also be transmitted through articles, such as the wife's handling of her husband's contaminated clothing. . He went on to point out that according to the information published in the Mainland, only one of the 41 confirmed cases is human-to-human, which means that the transmission coefficient of the virus, that is, the efficiency of transmitting to other people is low, and it means that the chance of large-scale spread of the virus in the community is low. .

            *The other group of 3 people, father, son, and uncle, lived together and ran the shop together. The time of onset of the three people was very close, and there was a chance to be "common exposure.

            * Lai Weiwen pointed out that 7 to 8 of them were in serious condition, severe patients were aged 40 to 78, and had kidney and liver failure at the same time, and 2 patients needed external life support treatment.

            *a specific rapid test was developed locally, and viruses were found in throat secretion, sputum and blood. The overall number of white blood cells in patients with pneumonia is normal or low, and the lymphocytes are lower than normal. This phenomenon has occurred in other pneumonia. In addition, the lungs of local pneumonia patients will be filled with inflammatory secretions.

            Patients are treated locally with supportive care, including oxygen and intravenous injections. Early treatment with Tamiflu was used locally, but it was discontinued after it was found not to be flu. Local preaching has a certain degree of utility. No local ribavirin or protease was used.

            * Two of them needed ECMO (artificial heart and lung) treatment.

            Lai Weiwen pointed out that the discharge conditions for pneumonia patients in Wuhan were more than 10 days of fever reduction, and two samples that were 48 hours apart were negative for the virus.

            * Lai Weiwen, chief infection control director of the Hospital Authority, pointed out that 7 to 8 patients with pneumonia in Wuhan were severe, including one who died. The patients were mild to moderate pneumonia. The severe cases were 40 to 78 years old. Renal and liver failure occurred. Two of the severe patients needed an external life support device. At least one patient had more than one virus. Other patients have bacterial infections, and it is believed that high-risk people have long-term patients, older people, and obese people...


            • #21
              Two confirmed cases of the Wuhan novel coronavirus have now been identified outside of China, one in Thailand and one in Japan. Neither country has reported additional cases. We need to be concerned about transmission risks from any new coronavirus.

              The 2015 MERSCoV outbreak in the Republic of Korea originated with a single individual arriving from the Middle East. This individual along with five superspreaders infected a total of 186 individuals, 38 of whom died. The epidemic lasted two months. See: Middle East respiratory syndrome: what we learned from the 2015 outbreak in the Republic of Korea

              With a coronavirus that is capable of human-to-human transmission, even a single infected patient can cause an epidemic.


              • #22
                Neither exposed case has a really strong exposure history. The Thai case visited a market, but not the one linked to this outbreak. Unless she had some bizarre stray contact with a still-undiagnosed vendor who supplied multiple markets, say, it would seem she was infected by an animal source. The case in Japan had contact with a pneumonia patient, but it's not clear that it is one of 41 confirmed cases. He had onset on January 3, making for a likely exposure in late December.

                Hopefully, authorities in Wuhan are working backward from both exported cases to ensure that no other cases are missed.

                I can't help but wonder if this virus might not be foodborne as well, particularly if proper cooking procedures aren't followed.


                • #23
                  Translation Google

                  German expert: Wuhan "new coronavirus" is SARS

                  Beijing Time: 2020-01-16 09:55
                  On Wednesday (January 15), "Voice of Germany" quoted Berlin virus research expert Christian Drosten, saying that the new virus that recently caused "unknown pneumonia" in China is a SARS virus , similar to 2002/03 the virus when SARS broke out. Drosten is the director of the Institute of Virology at Charit? Berlin, the largest university-affiliated teaching hospital in Europe.

                  Drosten pointed out that the new virus and SARS virus are "the same virus, but the morphology is different." The main difference is that the virus has different proteins attached to human cells.
                  The SARS virus is susceptible to mutation during transmission, and the mutation speed is very fast. When the SARS outbreak occurred in 2003, it was difficult for the medical profession to prevent and control the virus because of the constantly changing form of the virus, and it was also very difficult to develop a corresponding vaccine.

                  Professor Yuan Guoyong, Chair Professor of Infectious Diseases of the University of Hong Kong, pointed out that the illness, severity, and mortality of the new virus in Wuhan can be used as a reference for SARS in 2003. He said that SARS also experienced a rapid mutation of the virus that year, followed by a large-scale "super spread" process.

                  "Safety and security don't just happen, they are the result of collective consensus and public investment. We owe our children, the most vulnerable citizens in our society, a life free of violence and fear."
                  -Nelson Mandela


                  • #24
                    I thought the Homology with SARS was 80%ish - which seems very low if you are claiming it is the same virus. I have downloaded the .FASTA file but it means little to me as I do not know how much of it is protein code or where they lie on the strand. Type A influenza has 8 segments totaling ~10k bases half of which code for the RNP complex which is required for negative sense RNA transcription. BetaCoVs are +sense and 35k bases which seems excessive if all of it is exon. I would be grateful is any one has a map for BetaCoVs which shows where the translated proteins lie on the single +ssRNA. If the 20% sequence difference, with SARS, is all in the introns then this could be SARS but that seems a stretch neither EBOLA of flu have anything like that low a % homology.


                    • #25
                      Not reliable?

                      [(Reported by Epoch Times reporter Ling Yun) After confirmed cases of new coronavirus infection in Wuhan have appeared in Thailand and Japan successively, Wuhan announced an additional death case late at night on the 16th, but there were no new cases. However, netizens suspect the authorities are hiding the outbreak. Some netizens in Wuhan broke the news that his father had viral pneumonia and was sent to Jinyintan Hospital after several setbacks, but he and his mother also had the same symptoms, and the news was quickly deleted.]



                      • #26
                        That is a very complicated question. Speaking only for myself, I do not believe anything that mainland China says. They have a lengthy record of minimizing and outright lying about disease situations. It is against the law to print anything that might be perceived as against "social order". There are many government sponsored media articles over the years that brag about arrests and they always threaten more.

                        Epoch Times is based in the U.S. and is not a fan of the CCP. While I find their reporting true on the basics, I always wonder about the slant. Our site is not political. We just want the facts.

                        The above blog is anonymous so we have no idea if they are reliable or not.

                        Because China has such a bad reputation for the truth many rumors abound about everything. Some are true and some are false. The government has a large censorship program. Some items are deleted on the internet by keyword, others are personally deleted.

                        As to the new death - it could be one of the previously serious cases since that number has gone down from 7 to 5. Of the two, maybe one person died and one person improved and is no longer serious?

                        I would believe that there are many more cases that have not been accounted for.

                        I think unless we can vouch for the source, either privately or publicly, we probably can not trust anonymous sources. As to Epoch long as the reader understands their slant I think they are ok to post - with direct links to them and not through a random blog.



                        • #27
                          Wuhan pneumonia frequently appears in neighboring countries, CCP suspected to conceal facts

                          Beijing Time: 2020-01-17 01:58[NTD Beijing, January 17, 2020] The "Wuhan pneumonia" epidemic has continued to spread. Not only have confirmed cases in Thailand and Japan recently, but also Hong Kong, Macau, Singapore, Taiwan, South Korea, Vietnam and other places have been found Suspected case. However, in mainland China, not only has the epidemic situation in Wuhan been stagnated for a period of time, but other provinces and cities have not heard any news about the epidemic situation or the discovery of suspected cases. Outsiders doubt whether the CCP is still hiding the epidemic from the public.
                          The 2019 new coronavirus (2019-nCoV) epidemic, which first appeared in Wuhan, China , has been identified by the World Health Organization (WHO) as being able to be transmitted to a limited number of people.

                          On Thursday (16th), the Japanese government confirmed that a case of Wuhan-type new pneumonia was confirmed in Japan. The patient was a Chinese man in his 30s who became ill after returning to Wuhan from Wuhan on the 6th this month. He was hospitalized on the 10th and tested positive for the 2019-nCoV virus. He has now recovered and discharged.

                          This is the second confirmed case outside China after a female patient was infected with the new Wuhan coronavirus in Thailand on the 12th of this month.

                          On the 16th, the Ministry of Health of Vietnam also announced that two passengers from Wuhan were suspected to be infected with Wuhan's new coronavirus. The two patients were a 22-year-old man and a 3-year-old boy. Both of them had fever when they arrived at Da Nang International Airport on the 14th. They have been isolated in Vietnam and are being tested.

                          Since the outbreak of the new coronavirus in Wuhan (2019-nCoV), suspected cases have been found in many regions or countries including Hong Kong, Macau, Singapore, Taiwan, South Korea, and Vietnam. So far, 71 cases have been confirmed to be unrelated to Wuhan pneumonia virus after testing, including 71 in Hong Kong, 3 in Taiwan, and 1 in South Korea.
                          At the same time, the outside world found that the outbreak notification issued by the official website of the Health and Medical Commission of Wuhan City, which is the origin of the outbreak, shows that since January 3 this year, there have been no new cases of 2019-nCoV (new coronavirus) pneumonia.

                          Relevant agencies have been reporting to the outside that 41 confirmed cases have been found, of which 7 were seriously ill, and 1 person died on the 9th of this month. The outbreak data released by the city has stagnated even the number of suspected cases for a period of time. Until noon on the 14th, Wuhan authorities announced another three new suspected cases.

                          Wuhan is the largest city in central China, with a population of about 10 million people. Wuhan Tianhe International Airport's traffic exceeded 3 million in November last year. Coupled with high-speed rail links to the country, heavy traffic will increase the risk of infectious disease transmission. However, after the outbreak of pneumonia in Wuhan, it was suddenly in a state of stagnation. In other provinces and cities in mainland China, and even in other regions in Hubei Province, there have been no reports of suspected cases. However, suspected cases continue to occur in neighboring neighboring countries and even farther away in Singapore.

                          This strange phenomenon makes the public feel incredible. Many netizens in the online community have begun to question that the Chinese authorities may be concealing the epidemic from the public in order to "maintain stability."

                          On the Chinese social networking platform Weibo, some netizens have posted questions that "the people in the rest of the country are all right, Wuhan unknown pneumonia will only" favor "Hong Kong people?", "Does Wuhan people only go to Hong Kong and only go abroad? Go to other cities in China? "

                          The World Health Organization has issued a warning recently that the new type of coronavirus that caused the Wuhan pneumonia epidemic in 2019 may have "limited" human-to-human transmission, mainly small-scale cluster infections among family members, and the epidemic may spread and require medical epidemic prevention agencies in various countries. Prepare for the spread of the epidemic.



                          • #28
                            Originally posted by sharon sanders View Post
                            I would believe that there are many more cases that have not been accounted for.
                            I suspect that is a given. The denominator problem has been common to all the zoonotic events I am aware of, at least in the early stages. At the outset there are no primers to test against so all cases are just a symptom set. Too many of these and we play hunt the pathogen in the lab until we get a sequence that lets us then produce test primers. Limited testing facilities lead to examination of the most serious and obvious patients which causes unrealistic Case Fatality Rates (CFR) as we saw in early H1N1(2009) and are seeing in H5N1, H7N9 et al. Patients that have mild symptoms and sweat it out without seeing a doctor will never get counted. Seroprevalence studies can help in estimating a denominator but often give very different values.
                            Last edited by JJackson; January 17, 2020, 03:09 AM.


                            • #29

                              Chinese Man with Mystery Virus Quarantined in Nepal
                              Agency News ANI| Jan 17, 2020 05:30 AM IST

                              Kathmandu [Nepal], Jan 17 (ANI): A Chinese man has been quarantined here with a mystery strain of corona virus just days after his return from Wuhan, authorities said on Thursday.Sukraraj Tropical Hospital's Director Dr Basudev Pandey confirmed that a male from the Chinese province of Wuhan is kept under observation and various tests are being carried out to determine whether he has been infected."The suspect has not shown any symptom so far. The only thing is he returned from China," Pandey confirmed to ANI over the phone...


                              • #30
                                Coronavirus test on China returnee shows negative result

                                Doctors at Shukraraaj Tropical and Infectious Disease Hospital in Kathmandu have examined a student who returned from China to check if he is infected with coronavirus infection and found that he is not.