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Discussion Thread I - 2019-nCov (new coronavirus)

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  • The links between China and Africa are extensive
    Been on my mind as well. China also has a large presence as well in Ethiopia and Tanzania building infrastructure.

    As far as quarantine...I agree they are trying to slow it down.


    • Originally posted by Shiloh View Post
      Has anyone seen mentioned how long this "quarantine" is supposed to last? It's going to have an immense impact on the population regarding work and access it vital services. Don't believe a city that large has ever been quarantined in modern times.
      No date. " Recovery time will be announced separately."

      Of new pneumonia epidemic prevention and control headquarters in Shanghai
      Published by Wuhan 01-23 02:39

      Reading count: 5.19 million +

      Notice of Pneumonia Epidemic Prevention and Control of New Coronavirus Infection

      (No. 1)

      In order to fully do a good job in the prevention and control of the pneumonia epidemic of the new type of coronavirus infection, effectively cut off the transmission of the virus, resolutely curb the spread of the epidemic, and ensure the safety and health of the people, the relevant matters are notified as follows:

      From 10:00 on January 23, 2020, the city's urban bus, subway, ferry, and long-distance passenger transportation will be suspended; for no special reason, citizens should not leave Wuhan, and the airport and train station from the Han corridor will be temporarily closed.Recovery time will be announced separately.

      The public and passengers are kindly requested to understand and support!

      Pneumonia epidemic prevention and control headquarters of new coronavirus infection in Wuhan

      January 23, 2020

      "Safety and security don't just happen, they are the result of collective consensus and public investment. We owe our children, the most vulnerable citizens in our society, a life free of violence and fear."
      -Nelson Mandela


      • Originally posted by sharon sanders View Post
        Also - to all the members of 'Flublogia" - Welcome to FluTrackers!

        You know...Flu Wiki, Effect Measure, Plan for Pandemic, CurEvents, Pandemic Forum Information, Readymoms. Us oldies remember all of you!

        You Are Welcome Here.

        We are about the same as you remember us. We are low key. Respect for all.

        There is no organized posting. Everyone finds information that they think is interesting and they make the decisions where to post and how to present that information. In respect of copyright we only post a snip of any information in its original language unless we have permission. Also, no posting of graphs, maps, pictures without the originators approval.

        Everything we know is posted publicly. We do not have a moderator's thread on this outbreak. There is no "members only" thread.

        If we know it, you know it.

        It would be really great if some of you would like to participate. A lot of experience and knowledge was lost when the other forums/blogs shut down.

        Thank you very much!

        Hello From 'ReadyMom' ... yes ... I'm still here, but lurking. Still advocating home preparedness, albeit via the internet/forums/etc. instead of in-person presentations. It's been a LONG time! Thanks all for the up-to-the-minute reporting. OUTSTANDING, as usual!!


        • Thanks Readymom!


          Face mask sales surge in HK, Macau rations supplies

          2020-01-22 HKT 19:03


          In Macau, authorities said they would begin limiting the sale of masks after the government estimated that stocks would last for about 40 days.

          Health officials said some 50 pharmacies connected to the government would only sell 10 masks to each person holding a Macau identity card. Buyers would not be allowed to get further masks from these shops for the next 10 days.


          • I know I’ve been away for awhile but want you all to know you are amazing and need to be recognized for all of your ongoing efforts. Nowhere else is such great and valuable trove of historical and current information available to the world at such an urgent time.

            I’m very concerned about the travel restrictions in Wuhan. It is appearing as though it is becoming a forced quarantine.

            It is now 8:15am in Wuhan and those living there are waking up to what may soon be a humanitarian nightmare.


            • Supposed video of Wuhan hospital.

              Wuhan flight arrives in Sydney:


              Tourists banned from leaving:

              Freeway blocked:

              Last edited by sharon sanders; January 22, 2020, 08:26 PM. Reason: format


              • Concerning the US case, according to the Washington State Department of Health:

                "The person did not have symptoms while at SeaTac International Airport which would make transmission less likely."

                From Post #472 on the main thread:

                The reporter asked: Is it contagious during the incubation period?

                Academician Li Lanjuan: The incubation period may now also be contagious, so this point needs to be taken very seriously, because now I also understand the situation of some patients, the patients themselves do not have fever, and those who have contacted him in the early stage have fever. People may also have infections and fevers later.

                (Li Lanjuan is an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering and serves as the director of the State Key Laboratory for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases.
                "Safety and security don't just happen, they are the result of collective consensus and public investment. We owe our children, the most vulnerable citizens in our society, a life free of violence and fear."
                -Nelson Mandela


                • Number of contacts under observation (quarantine?) in China now about 6000. That's still a little low for the number of suspected/confirmed cases. Toronto quarantined about that number at several points during its 2003 SARS outbreak. The number of actively ill (confirmed) cases in Wuhan in 2020 are about 10x what Toronto had at any time; I'd expect something like 60,000 contacts to be under observation, and that's even before the possibility of missed milder cases. Wondering also if regional/cultural differences might be in play; perhaps the typical person in China simply has contact with fewer people than the typical Canadian.


                  • hat tip Goju:

                    Wuhan Institute of Virology, CAS

                    "The CAS has thirteen regional branches, in Beijing, Shenyang, Changchun, Shanghai, Nanjing, Wuhan, Guangzhou, Chengdu, Kunming, Xi'an, Lanzhou, Hefei and Xinjiang." link

                    Only one lab in China can safely handle the new coronavirus

                    By Nicoletta Lanese - Staff Writer 10 hours ago

                    As an escalating viral outbreak unfolds in China, only one lab in the country meets the required biosafety standards needed to study the new disease.

                    The lab happens to sit in the center of Wuhan, the city where the newly identified coronavirus first appeared, according to the Hindustan Times, an Indian news outlet. The facility, known as the Wuhan National Biosafety Laboratory, is housed within the Chinese Academy of Sciences and was specifically designed to help Chinese scientists "prepare for and respond to future infectious disease outbreaks," according to a 2019 report published by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).


                    Designated at Biosafety Level 4 (BSL-4), the Wuhan lab can hold the world's most dangerous pathogens at maximum biocontainment levels.




                    • Apparently, one or two of the contacts of one of the confirmed cases in Hong Kong have been hospitalized with symptoms. The tweet below has been edited several times:


                      (It's not clear whether these individuals made the entire trip with the patient, and thus might have had multiple contacts with him, or if they simply sat in the same train car. If it's the latter, and the man sitting 6 rows away from the patient is confirmed, this virus is fully airborne. Of course, it's also possible that something else made the other passenger sick.)


                      • Originally posted by tetano View Post
                        Emily, I think vaccinating for the flu is important in order to avoid confusing the new disease with the flu. As for as the studies you mention, the risk is the higher incidence of respiratory diseases and not the severity
                        Thank you for clarifying that, Tetano. I picked up on the "acute" in ARI in the reference on the study in children, but I looked at that again and the data was from the homes so the illnesses could not have been too serious. This new corona virus seems no more dangerous than seasonal flu and is certainly less widespread in many areas currently.

                        Ask Congress to Investigate COVID Origins and Government Response to Pandemic.

                        i love myself. the quietest. simplest. most powerful. revolution ever. ---- nayyirah waheed

                        "...there’s an obvious contest that’s happening between different sectors of the colonial ruling class in this country. And they would, if they could, lump us into their beef, their struggle." ---- Omali Yeshitela, African People’s Socialist Party

                        (My posts are not intended as advice or professional assessments of any kind.)
                        Never forget Excalibur.


                        • I have a query. It would be a reasonable assumption that this virus has been confused in its early days with complications of severe flu. This is a bad year for it, so this is not unreasonable. Do we have any flu or more general pneumonia mortality data / severe case data that can be examined for the Wuhan region and wider area prior to 2019 CoV's recognition? This might give us a better handle on severity in the short term?

                          I have also been chatting to a friend living in China to get some information. He has now lived through numerous infectious disease scares there and is fairly level headed. This is what he said (He is not in Wuhan).

                          "We know about it, in fact more than the media is letting on, number of confirmed cases has to be higher, we know of other cities not reported in China that have it...MSM is only getting fed by Beijing. We are of course taking all precautions, masks, washing hands at all ops, and antibacterial measures. This seems a bad one .. and not stopping, half life of a week and human to human viral transmission, not looking good."


                          • From

                            "The blockade comes as at least 571 people have been infected with the coronavirus, from the same family of viruses that gave rise to Sars. It has now reached almost all of the country’s provinces, as well as the US, Taiwan, Korea, Thailand and Hong Kong. Chinese authorities said on Thursday that 95 patients were in critical condition. So far, 17 people have died since the virus was detected in late December, all of them in Hubei province, of which Wuhan is the capital

                            From all the anecdotal reports, this will be an under-reporting of numbers. We also do not know the number of mild cases. However on the basis of the numbers they are giving us on formally identified cases from contact tracing and hospitalised cases, this would give us the following figures:-

                            Severe infection rate 16.6% (those in a critical condition)
                            CFR 3%

                            Obviously this may change as more data comes in, and I would expect these numbers to fall (cf 2009 H1N1). But for now this gives us some sort of baseline.


                            • I am not a fan of the Daily Mail at all but am scanning everything at the moment.

                              This article includes the following comment that caught my eye

                              Chinese experts today claimed that they had found ways to effectively kill the virus.

                              Li Lanjuan, an expert from National Health Commission's, said at a press conference: 'Coronavirus will die in 30 minutes in a temperature of 56 degrees Celsius.

                              'Ether, 75 percent Ethanol and disinfectant containing Chlorine can effectively kill the virus.'


                              • Wondering if this reporter has mixed up cases and contacts, but a report of 109 cases in a place called Huanggang:


                                BREAKING URGENT:#CoronaVirus We have obtained An internal government transcript from #China that shows that 109 cases of #CoronaVirus were found in #Huanggang City,(which has just now been put on lockdown) and 12 cases were announced to the public.

                                RT to spread message. #wuhan

                                1:02 AM - 23 Jan 2020


                                A second source, confirming the lockdown but not the case counts:

                                Officials say Huanggang, which is next to Wuhan and has a population of 7 million, will shut down its transportation system at midnight and citizens should not leave the city. All public venues are closed.